CATS Long Term Transit Plan - Silver, Red Lines

[uptownliving]

^No, CATs has had these hybrids for a while. Tober authorized the purchase of two hybrid buses 2-3 years ago. I believe they might be doing runs into the East Charlotte area as part of the regular bus service. They decided not to purchase more of them due to the cost.

Actually they did decide to purchase more hybrid buses for CATS...that decision was made about a year ago...so expect to see more HYBRID buses in CATS fleet...some even coming from our local company Designline.

[Spartan]

^No, CATs has had these hybrids for a while. Tober authorized the purchase of two hybrid buses 2-3 years ago. I believe they might be doing runs into the East Charlotte area as part of the regular bus service. They decided not to purchase more of them due to the cost.

Yep. Plus the Sprinter buses will be painted green.

[uptownliving]

Hopefully they are some of the crappy old ones that were clearly part of the old CTA system. I didn't realize the FTA could do that though.

The FTA requires Transit Agencies to have less than 20% of the Bus Fleet be Spares. Because of the scheudle reducitons CATS has made they will need to get rid of 39 buses.

-25 Buses will be from regular retirement due to age and use

-3 Buses were in accidents and will be retired

-11 Buses still have useful life and will be sold to an FTA approved transit agency, hopefully one in NC

At the end of these retirements and sales CATS will have a bus fleet of 324 buses.

I am still confused; where these supposed to be doing the airport sprinter service? Have they canned that and put them into regular routes (this one was on a Freedom Dr. route) or are they in the process of upgrading buses on local routes as well?

The hybrid buses that will be doing the Airport Sprinter service are in addition to the existing Hyrbrid buses in the fleet. The Sprinter service is scheduled to start in September.

[southslider]

CATS misfortunes are of its own making.

Or perhaps, it is this recession thing happening across the nation. Valley Metro of Phoenix is also delaying its planned extensions.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/n...nsions0625.html

[uptownliving]

Yet misery loves company, and virtually all transit agencies are currently in the same boat. Fortunately for CATS, there is change happening in Washington that will lead to many more New Starts projects, not fewer, as in years past.

Yeah I like what I have been reading. The FTA has come out with new proposed evaluation system for New Starts that I think will bode well for CATS

Old Rating System Weighting

50% Cost Effetiveness

50% Transit Suportive Land Use

Proposed New Rating System Weighting

20% Mobility Improvments

10% Environmental Benefits

20% Cost Effectiveness

10% Operating Efficiencies

20% Economic Development

20% Transit Supportive Land Use

More info on this here: http://www.fta.dot.gov/documents/Policy_Gu..._2009_FINAL.pdf

It is also important to note that the FTA recently awarded $75M for the Portland Streetcar... I think this shows that the FTA is seeing Streetcars in a more favorable light than the Bush administration did.

[monsoon]

Actually they did decide to purchase more hybrid buses for CATS...

Different plan.

[monsoon]

Or perhaps, it is this recession thing happening across the nation. Valley Metro of Phoenix is also delaying its planned extensions.....

Well, I'm not going to argue with web links. However we have already discussed Phoenix's economic situation before. Since you brought them up as a yardstick to measure by, despite the economic woes there, their new LRT is easily carrying 2x the people that Lynx is, and they built the system without $100M cost overruns related to shear incompetence by management to manage a project.

I stand by my words. A transit agency that cuts back service is not going to be the one that gets the limited transit dollars for more capital purchases.

[ChesterCopperPot]

However we have already discussed Phoenix's economic situation before. Since you brought them up as a yardstick to measure by, despite the economic woes there, their new LRT is easily carrying 2x the people that Lynx is, and they built the system without $100M cost overruns related to shear incompetence by management to manage a project.

I stand by my words. A transit agency that cuts back service is not going to be the one that gets the limited transit dollars for more capital purchases.

Actually, Phoenix did miss their initial cost estimates by more than $100 million, and their initial completion date was set for 2006...yikes!

[uptownliving]

I stand by my words. A transit agency that cuts back service is not going to be the one that gets the limited transit dollars for more capital purchases.

-Portland, OR was awarded $75M by the Feds for a Streetcar recently...They have already gone through one round of service reductions and they are getting ready to go through another.

-Phoenix was awarded $36M by the Feds for their Central Valley rail project recently...surprise surprise that same trasnit agency instituted service reductions and is looking at doing more.

-Denver was recently awarded $309M by the Feds for their West Corridor Project...and glory be...they have instituted service reductions.

Just 3 examples of many more to come. We are in a deep recesion and over 80% of the Transit Agencies in this country are facing budget problems. A lot of them are instituting service reductions. And surprise surprise we will be hearing more announcements of big money being handed out to them in spite of the service reductions.

The service reductions are a temporary solution to a hopefully temporary recession. Once the economy picks up I would expect to hear about service being restored.

Whereas the money the Feds are handing out is for long term infrastructure that will be here through many more recessions to come.

Edited June 29, 2009 by uptownliving

[southslider]

A transit agency that cuts back service is not going to be the one that gets the limited transit dollars for more capital purchases.

And if that were the case, then virtually no transit agency in the US would be eligible for capital grants. Hence, the competition is in the same boat.

[New Name]

...Phoenix's (...) new LRT is easily carrying 2x the people that Lynx is(...)

Please note: Phoenix's system is exactly 2x longer than Charlotte's.

Edited June 29, 2009 by The Escapists

[monsoon]

Please note: Phoenix's system is exactly 2x longer than Charlotte's.

I don't think it can be assumed that distance is relative to ridership. The North CR line is 3X longer yet it is projected to carry just a fraction of the people.

[monsoon]

Whereas the money the Feds are handing out is for long term infrastructure that will be here through many more recessions to come.

Those are not equivalent examples. Anyway, the point remains, the FTA is making Charlotte shed capital assets due to service reductions. In most places when the economy goes bad more people ride transit because it is cheaper than the automobile. If the idea here is that transit only works when times are good, then CATS really does have it backwards, but I think it is more the koolade they drink here where common sense has little to do with it. The recent bruhaha over the Street Car is case enough of that. However, I always say the proof is in the pudding. Get back to me when the FTA or CATS has any firm dates they can put down for doing something with the NE extension.

[tozmervo]

The Sprinter, as pulled from the May MTC Meeting Agenda:

[monsoon]

^Indeed. The two hybrid buses that I was referring to and pictured above were purchased as part of a different evaluation. They decided not to purchase more of them due to the cost.

[uptownliving]

^Indeed. The two hybrid buses that I was referring to and pictured above were purchased as part of a different evaluation. They decided not to purchase more of them due to the cost.

I don't know why you keep repeating this misinformation...but the 2 Hybrids that were purchased 5 years ago are from Gillig...CATS tried them out and liked them. 2 years ago CATS signed a 5 year contract where they will be getting a lot more Hybrids from Gillig and Designline. The new hybrids that CATS is driving are the same model that was tested out 5 years ago.

Personally I like riding on the hybrids over the regular buses because they are quieter.

[southslider]

The North CR line is 3X longer yet it is projected to carry just a fraction of the people.

Apples to apples, and oranges to oranges, please. It's common sense that Commuter Rail is lower than Light-Rail Transit, which is lower than HRT/Metro in ridership density. And that makes sense, when capital costs per mile also increase with each of those technologies.

The only big mistake CATS made was projecting rosy revenues. But beyond that, Charlotte remains a leader in transit expansion, with other cities wishing they were as in "bad" of shape as CATS.

[monsoon]

The Mayor of Davidson is quoted in one of the papers this week in that he believes that CATS is going to ditch the North Commuter Rail line because of the failure to find money to fund it. ATM ~$350,000,000.

In the same article NC state representative Thom Tillis said it appears the effort to get the statewide 1/2 cent local option sales tax passed in the NC Legislature won't happen for several years at the earliest. In reading the Raleigh UP transit topic, I saw mention that it was take off the agenda for consideration. I am not sure if Mecklenburg was ever added back as this county was specifically excluded from that bill. The Charlotte city council and the MTC both voted to have Mecklenburg added. I don't think the one that actually would count with the Legislature, the Mecklenburg county council, ever took up the issue. I might be wrong on that one, but as it turns out, it appears to be irrelevant.

Finally Bob Watson, who is the leader of one of those Tea Party groups told the Lake Norman Chamber that CATS could build the North Line "if CATS used existing funds wisely". He went on to give some figures on how inefficiently CATS is running the South line and if they cleaned that up, the money could be used for the North purpose.

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I've been saying this for a long time. CATS wastes a lot of transit tax money on inefficiency in operations whereas the people who voted for the tax thought it was going to capital construction. (this was what was implied). And that future train lines were not going to be built using the present plan. On the transit tax issue, it sounds as if the the state is reluctant to pass it because the NC legislature is looking at increasing the state sales tax and adding a whole slew of other small fees and taxes to address it's own budget shortfalls. So this is an issue that it does not want to deal with.

If the Charlotte city council and the MTC wanted to actually address the issue, they would stop with the useless votes on increasing taxes and instead pull a detailed independent review of CATS operations with the idea of having it run efficiently while at the same time increasing ridership on all lines. The fact that it has buses the Federal government is forcing it to sell because it cut back service, and their only excuse is to blame it on the economy, is a testimate to this fact.

[uptownliving]

Finally Bob Watson, who is the leader of one of those Tea Party groups told the Lake Norman Chamber that CATS could build the North Line "if CATS used existing funds wisely". He went on to give some figures on how inefficiently CATS is running the South line and if they cleaned that up, the money could be used for the North purpose.

So what are some of Bob's ideas to run the trains more effiecently?

[monsoon]

So what are some of Bob's ideas to run the trains more effiecently?

The paper did not print his complete presentation so I don't know. I would have posted it if it had been in there. I didn't know about this event or I would have attended to see what was said in person. In any case, I stuck to quotes posted in the paper and left out the opinions but added my own. Standard stuff.

One other note, this was announced a couple of weeks ago. Brian Sisson of the Huntersville town council has announced he is running to unseat mayor Jill Swain. Swain was from the same crowd as the very transit friendly Kim Phillips. Sisson on the other hand was part of the trio that was elected in 2007 that said NO to CATs when they showed up looking for $90M in TIFs from the town. If he is elected he will become a voting member of the MTC and that could be fairly interesting.

[southslider]

CATS should live within the original half-cent. Yet CATS could build the North line now if North Meck Towns said yes to TIF. A half-cent levy not going to voters anytime soon (and easily a different result than the repeal), TIF remains the best option to build anything soon.

[monsoon]

..... TIF remains the best option to build anything soon.

Can you justify this by some numbers? TIF financing is highly dependent upon a very healthy real estate market. If the market starts to collapse, as it is now, then it's the local taxpayers that are left with paying the bill.

[southslider]

Can you justify this by some numbers?

It's a safe assumption that the State would not contribute the share assumed in the System Plan. Hence, TIF is needed to make up the difference. The local sales tax share is still available. CATS doesn't want to risk it, so as to be sure to have the option to provide local match for the Blue Line Extension (BLE). But in this economy, North could be built under budget, while the projected opening of Northeast/BLE keeps slipping.

TIF financing is highly dependent upon a very healthy real estate market.

Technically, TIF only depends upon increased tax assessments on a property that results in an incremental increase. Even vacant Metropolitan condos have higher property values than the vacant Midtown mall property had. Along the North/Purple Line, you're talking vacant, underutilized, or at least much lower density property that would see a significant increase in values. And place-making development has been holding its value much better than conventional development.

If the market starts to collapse, as it is now, then it's the local taxpayers that are left with paying the bill.

The market has likely reached bottom, with Charlotte performing much better than other markets. Finally, you use synthetic TIF to minimize the risk to taxpayers.

[monsoon]

^You didn't answer my question. You gave your opinion of the real estate market in that you feel the bottom is reached. However this is what I expected because any realistic look at what a TIF means in regards to this project is going to yield the folly of that option.

A TIF is nothing more than a gamble on the future value of real estate using tax money for the stakes. Basically CATS wants to shift the financial risk of building that line onto the taxpayers of the northern towns, which would be absolutely foolish for these town councils to do given CATS horrible track record for cost overruns, bad projections, and mis-managing projects. They have no political control over what CATS does.

[southslider]

^The bigger gamble would be to build any TOD without the T.

If North Meck Towns see a bigger incremental increase with station-area development, why not tap into it?

And it's not exactly CATS shifting the risk or burden, when I said it's the State who is least likely to fulfill the funding expectations in the System Plan.