CATS Long Term Transit Plan - Silver, Red Lines

[tusculan]

On 12/7/2016 at 6:04 AM, southslider said:

Sharing Blue Line works as long as each line is 10 minutes, even with three-car trains, allowing for a train every 5 minutes in Uptown. Conversely, you would need to wait up to 10 minutes to transfer between the lines, if not overlapping at Uptown stations . 

Having long delays between transit modes is a concern. If you have to wait longer than 5 or so minutes, people will be far less likely to use it, especially outdoor or above ground stops. However, it is fundamentally easier to add more trains than to remove them. In 20 years, our concern will not be that the trains don't come often enough, but how to have greater capacity.

If I am not mistaken, the current schedule during peak times for blue line trains is every 15 minutes. If scheduled correctly then, the wait at a junction station like Stonewall would be 7.5 minutes for a transfer at current scheduling frequency. This is indeed a problem. 

I see three solutions. 1) simply increase frequency to at least a train every 10 minutes to cut service time. The obvious downside to this is that it would either meaning running emptier trains, or running multiple kinds of services, like express or local, which I am not sure the infrastructure can accommodate.

2.) This is a little bold. But what if in construction of the silver line there is a rail connector to the blue line directly, or via the gold line? Is there a way to re-route certain Silver Line trains elsewhere in Uptown that would lessen the need for a wait now. But in the future wouldn't be used? If I recall correctly, the streetcars can be used on the LRV routes but not vice versa because of weight and turning radii. But might there be a mixed solution for now?

3) Simply coordinate the Gold line (hahaha) with the silver and the blue by using signal priority systems. If you could do this, then you could time all three lines in relation to one another - so yes it would be a 7 minute wait for the Blue line, but only if you didn't want to wait the 2 minutes for the Gold line and come into uptown from the East. Does that make sense?

[nmundo]

5 hours ago, tusculan said:

Having long delays between transit modes is a concern. If you have to wait longer than 5 or so minutes, people will be far less likely to use it, especially outdoor or above ground stops. However, it is fundamentally easier to add more trains than to remove them. In 20 years, our concern will not be that the trains don't come often enough, but how to have greater capacity.

If I am not mistaken, the current schedule during peak times for blue line trains is every 15 minutes. If scheduled correctly then, the wait at a junction station like Stonewall would be 7.5 minutes for a transfer at current scheduling frequency. This is indeed a problem. 

I see three solutions. 1) simply increase frequency to at least a train every 10 minutes to cut service time. The obvious downside to this is that it would either meaning running emptier trains, or running multiple kinds of services, like express or local, which I am not sure the infrastructure can accommodate.

2.) This is a little bold. But what if in construction of the silver line there is a rail connector to the blue line directly, or via the gold line? Is there a way to re-route certain Silver Line trains elsewhere in Uptown that would lessen the need for a wait now. But in the future wouldn't be used? If I recall correctly, the streetcars can be used on the LRV routes but not vice versa because of weight and turning radii. But might there be a mixed solution for now?

3) Simply coordinate the Gold line (hahaha) with the silver and the blue by using signal priority systems. If you could do this, then you could time all three lines in relation to one another - so yes it would be a 7 minute wait for the Blue line, but only if you didn't want to wait the 2 minutes for the Gold line and come into uptown from the East. Does that make sense?

Current Blue Line peak service is a train every 10 minutes and will be going down to every 7.5 minutes once the extension opens. I still don't think sharing tracks is a very smart idea since it would mean a single point of failure would cause problems on both lines and you'd have capacity issues. Bringing down the crossing gates every 2-3 minutes during rush hour would cause some major problems.

[michaelef]

CATS to conduct study for rail to the airport.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article119947468.html?utm_content=bufferfe3ce&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

[kermit]

While it feels a little politically wishywashy Charlotte won a grant from the FTA to assist in developing effective TOD strategies in the West End around Phase 2 of the Gold Line. We were one of four cities to win this year.

https://www.transit.dot.gov/about/news/federal-transit-administration-announces-technical-assistance-help-communities-create

Edited December 13, 2016 by kermit

[ChessieCat]

On 12/9/2016 at 11:48 PM, michaelef said:

CATS to conduct study for rail to the airport.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article119947468.html?utm_content=bufferfe3ce&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

I wonder if NCDOT's decision to start construction on the rail yard at Summit Ave will influence the route of a future airport line?

Edited December 15, 2016 by ChessieCat

[southslider]

^Airport line is no more likely to follow the freight railroad than the Matthews line.

[kermit]

John Lewis was on Charlotte Talks this morning talking about the long term plan. There was little new news except for when he was asked about updating the 2030 plan. He said the "he hoped" to build the Red Line, Airport Line, the Silver Line and Gateway Station "all at once" and "by 2030."    He spoke obliquely about changing the revenue streams to make this happen (including using a PPP). I certainly applaud his ambition.

http://wfae.org/post/ribbon-cutting-ground-breaking-and-heavy-lifting-ahead-cats

 

[kermit]

^ So yesterday's Charlotte Talks got me thinking about what might be required to finance the simultaneous build out of the 2030 plan. The rapid build out concept is not unheard of, Denver has (partially) accomplished a plan that was twice as big with its Fastracks program.  What follows is a _very_ rough sketch of the money involved. This type of finance is not my thing so please share your input.

• Current Mecklenburg 1/2 cent transit tax revenue: $100 million per year (approximately). This is projected to grow to $150 million pa in 2035 (much of this revenue stream is earmarked for operations costs).
• Estimated costs of new lines: Silver $1.5 billion, Airport (including River District) $1 billion (nobody has any idea at this point), Red Line $600 million (assuming NS cooperation), Gateway $200 million (plus funds to separate the NS-CSX grade crossing at ADM). Round it all up to $3.5 billion

Financing this would require roughly tripling the current revenue rate (this is a wildassguess based on the current transit tax financing roughly $1.4 billion in capital projects). However, the state has made it clear that it is unlikely to pay its previous 25% share of costs -- so this adds $900 million to CATS expenses. So Lewis will need to find $4.4 billion somewhere. I think this translates into a 2 cent increase in the Mecklenburg transit tax. However this would a) scare retailers away from Meck and b) really piss off the NCGA who have been clear that they will not allow any increase in Mecklenburg sales taxes.

So a sales tax increase of the necessary magnitude is probably impossible and certainly foolish so CATS would need other revenue sources. Some possibilities:

• TIFF / Value capture: Its hard to see much new development along the Silver and Red lines. Revenue stream might optimistically generate $10 million per year?
• PPP: I see two types: Construction firm partnership (essentially a loan to transit agencies in return for future fare revenue). And TOD developer contributions (usually gifts of ROW or some small payment). I can't see significant contributions from either source (but I am a pessimist)
• Other taxes: Property tax, special district tax (similar to CCCP overlay -- where would you put them other than uptown?), payroll tax (like Portland), Commuter tax (?)
• Regional transit sales tax: Allowing adjacent counties to 'buy in' to the CATS system. This would require an expansion of (rail) service into these counties.
  
  Cabarrus seems most realistic as it could be served by a BLE 'E' to the Speedway / Concord Mills area as well as commuter rail on the NCRR (which would be very cost effective by using the existing station in Kannapolis and new stations in Concord, Harrisburg and U City). This would also permit service to Rowan
  
  Gaston is also a possibility with a airport line bridge over the river (a good Trump infrastructure project) plus commuter rail to Gastonia on NS (assuming NS is willing) and a separate Mount Holly commuter connection on the P&N
  
  Union: Silver (or Blue) line extension to Weddington (along an existing Duke power ROW -- but there is no urban core in Weddington...) plus commuter service on CSX to Indian Land and Monroe (assuming CSX is willing)
  
  Iredell has been very clear about their unwillingness to contribute despite having the greatest need
  
  York seems to be a non-starter due to SC but they can also be connected to the rail network relatively easily (Blue line extension, a blue line connector (DMU service along NS from Rock Hill to 485) or pure commuter rail from RH and Ft Mill along NS)
  
  The regional tax approach looks quite logical to Mecklenburg residents (assuming the cost-benefits of the extensions pencil out) and would be the easiest way to generate $4.4 billion. Unfortunately new sales taxes are going to be a tough sell in the adjacent counties -- but Cabarrus might be an exception.  Interestingly the possibility of toll roads might make a regional transit tax easier to sell (e.g. some Union residents might prefer a transit tax to variable tolls on 485)
   
• Wait for money to pop up out of the ground (e.g. building the new system underground through $4 billion of gold deposits)

The other wild card is the Trump administration and their willingness to fund transit -- its not impossible that the federal match could be reduced or eliminated. (given the time necessary for a grant application to be prepared this is only a problem if he is reelected)

As I said above, I applaud Lewis' ambition, but building all four projects at once will be a very heavy lift unless we discover a monster gold vein running under Independence blvd or huge pro-transit attitude shifts in Gaston, Iredell and Union.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by kermit

[southslider]

Update corridor plans for now. By 2020, change the tax locally, as well as the partners in DC and Raleigh.

[RiverwoodCLT]

Iredell is now open to the Red Line by Charlotte Talks.  People up there are demanding to their leaders  that they want the Red Line to Mooresville..

Regional transit sales tax: Allowing adjacent counties to 'buy in' to the CATS system. This would require an expansion of (rail) service into these counties.  This is how Denver does it.

Also York County SC comes into the mix also.

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by RiverwoodCLT

[HopHead]

1 hour ago, RiverwoodCLT said:

Iredell is now open to the Red Line by Charlotte Talks.  People up there are demanding to their leaders  that they want the Red Line to Mooresville..

Regional transit sales tax: Allowing adjacent counties to 'buy in' to the CATS system. This would require an expansion of (rail) service into these counties.  This is how Denver does it.

Also York County SC comes into the mix also.

 

York County, Fort Mill and Rock Hill specifically, could benefit immensely from an expansion of the light rail from 485/Pineville. I'm not sure if it's feasible, but having a stop at the new Kingsley development off 160/I-77 would be one that I'd target.

[GeauxCLT]

Property tax re-assessments are set to take place 1/1/2018. The last re-assessment was 1/1/2011 (the low of the recession for housing in Charlotte). I'm sure it is not near enough, but there could be big money generated with the next reassessment. 

[deaconator]

Property tax re-assessments are set to take place 1/1/2018. The last re-assessment was 1/1/2011 (the low of the recession for housing in Charlotte). I'm sure it is not near enough, but there could be big money generated with the next reassessment. 

Ok well let's start these conversations with other counties now because good luck selling huge property tax increases to meck residents (as high as they already are)


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[deleted]

7 hours ago, kermit said:

Union: Silver (or Blue) line extension to Weddington (along an existing Duke power ROW -- but there is no urban core in Weddington...) plus commuter service on CSX to Indian Land and Monroe (assuming CSX is willing)

Please let this happen (I'd ride the train EVERY day)!

[kermit]

2 hours ago, GeauxCLT said:

Property tax re-assessments are set to take place 1/1/2018. The last re-assessment was 1/1/2011 (the low of the recession for housing in Charlotte). I'm sure it is not near enough, but there could be big money generated with the next reassessment. 

traditionally the revaluations are accompanied with a rate adjustment to make them revenue neutral -- the reassessments are intended only to reallocate the tax burden to adjust for uneven appreciation.

[CLT704]

It's all well and good extending the Blue Line further, but I'd be concerned it would be too long to be feasible. 

[southslider]

Once the BLE opens, the Blue Line will already reach almost an hour of travel across its entire length.

[videtur quam contuor]

Google maps says UNCC to 485@South Blvd is 1 hr for departure from UNCC at 4:48 until 5:38. I think that would be generous. I avoid 77 south during that time at all costs.

[deaconator]

Google maps says UNCC to 485@South Blvd is 1 hr for departure from UNCC at 4:48 until 5:38. I think that would be generous. I avoid 77 south during that time at all costs.

I don't think the point would literally be to get a bunch of people from Fort Mill to UNCC anyway. And even for that though, it wouldn't be terribly worse than driving in rush hour


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[videtur quam contuor]

My point was in response to the post just above about total time of near an hour for the full length of the expanded Blue Line. This means a trip for the length would be near same as auto if done at rush hours. In my opinion it would be even less time for BLE because I have suspicion of an estimate of one hour at rush hour and if there is any, and I mean any issue on the highway we all know that there is no escape from the interstate.

[Guest]

A massing for Charlotte Gateway Station. Interesting. 

 

Edited January 16, 2017 by Guest

[DMann]

bring it on!  where did you find that?

 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, DMann said:

bring it on!  where did you find that?

 

http://charlottenc.gov/cats/transit-planning/facilities/Pages/gateway-station.aspx

 

Here is a great Powerpoint too

http://charlottenc.gov/cats/transit-planning/facilities/Documents/CGS-Public-Meeting-Presentation-11.9.2016.pdf

 

Edited January 16, 2017 by Guest

[tozmervo]

23 minutes ago, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

A massing for Charlotte Gateway Station. Interesting. 

That massing seems to address a lot of the public comment concerns I saw and combine some of the best ideas of the different schemes originally presented. Tons of potential, I like it

[DMann]

count me in.