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CATS Long Term Transit Plan - Silver, Red Lines


monsoon

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^I've been thinking a lot about this exact thing, and unfortunately, I think you're right on about a lot of this.

The only chance we really have is if an Obama/Biden office decides to tie this in to their energy policy...which I think is certainly possible. As for this standing alone as a transit project, I can't see as much funding coming available as CATS plans to ask for.

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I think of it more like an interestate overpass for 277. It kills pedestrian activity. Doesn't North Carolina State have some sort of tunnel that students paint for various things? I hope that the planners of this thing will see it fit to let the art community do something like that with the tunnel walls and supports.

Yes...I think the 277 overpassses are terrible...but a better more modern example of what this could be is the Independence/ Pecan St overpass. It is about 130 ft of overpass that is well lit underneath and has nice wide sidewalks and a wall...so no place for people to hide. I have walked/biked this section of Pecan St many times and while not optimal it is lightyears better than the 277 overpasses downtown.

This particular 36th St intersection is particualarly frustrating since CATS feels forced to put the tracks on the Tryon side due to "historical" buildings on the Davidson side of the tracks. If the community felt that the buildings were not historical then CATS could put the station and the tracks on the Davidson side and therefore making the station more accessible to NoDa. Just to be clear, the "historical" buildings I am talking about do NOT include the Mecklenburg and Johnston Mills.

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Given the above situation there would seem to be no chance the federal government will have the appetite or, more importantly, the ability to spend money on local train projects. A great deal will also depend upon the government the people decide to elect in 2008. The current administration killed a great deal of train funding in this country.

I get the feeling this project is turning into another TTA project. It goes on indefinitely with increasing costs and moving dates until it is eventually killed. So does CATS have a viable plan, or has it designed a project that will never be built, gut does keep people employed working on it indefinitely?

I would have to disagree (surprise surprise surprise) for a couple of reasons:

1) During tough times like these is when "Public Works" projects such as the Lynx Blue Line receive even greater priority. Keep in mind it will be harder for people to get car loans and so more and more people will be depending on public transit to get around.

2) We have the existing Blue Line which will make the modeling a lot better....and because the numbers for it are much higher than expected that means that CATS can request more money under the FTA's Cost/Benefit modeling and that is under the current Bush Administration.

3) Parker has been very clear that this will not become another TTA project. Even the engineering money is being done in phases....at the end of each phase is a checkpoint to make sure this project is still financially viable. We'll find out in the next couple of months what the FTA thinks of the latest estimates...and if they say "No" then the project is over.

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Couple things: If anyone watched the Presidential debates last night, you should have been excited to see that Obama seemed to really pull ahead of Johnny-Mac (which dependent on your vote is a good thing), and Obama did so by prioritizing Energy solutions first - and - said he plans to dig out of the current recession by initiating Public Works projects.

To me, both of those initiatives lend themselves to the build out of Charlotte's 2030 plan.

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About the crossing on 36th St. in Noda (mods - should this be in the Noda thread?):

CATS plans to present this info next month at our meeting, but here is what I gather about the plan. They will begin lowering 36th at the first RR crossing (the minimally used one that cuts in front of Meck & Jo Mills). There is about a 200' approach to the bridged tracks with a slight downgrade already. Once you cross those bridged tracks, 36th drops quite a bit down to Tryon. So, somewhat as to my hopes, the elevation of 36th & Davidson will be similar to the elevation of the new bridges - as they will raise the track level 1/2 of the clearance, and lower the road level the other 1/2.

I say new "bridges" because we're being told there will actually be 3 bridges consisting of double tracks (Freight x2, Amtrac + HSR, Lynx x2). I am trying to remember, but isn't there a stop on the South Line with two bridges like this? Woodlawn?

Now what I hope for is that they won't build imposing concrete bridges with thick supports.

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I say new "bridges" because we're being told there will actually be 3 bridges consisting of double tracks (Freight x2, Amtrac + HSR, Lynx x2). I am trying to remember, but isn't there a stop on the South Line with two bridges like this? Woodlawn?

Both the freight line and the lynx bridge over the parking garage access road at 485/South.

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I don't agree that this will be a "TTA" type of project. There are several major differences:

  • CATS has a strong local funding component--Triangle not so much
  • CATS has demonstrated tremendous success with the Blue Line, almost reaching the 2025 ridership projection in year one
  • As I've said before, the FTA's process (a little too 'manic' for my tastes) strongly favors extensions of existing lines that have demonstrated success, and is much less forgiving to new startup lines

I think there is always a possibility that the feds will say no, but there is no way the NE line can be considered a "TTA" type of project. There is also the possibilty that even if the feds won't go along with an 80% share (which IMO is somewhat unlikely they will), even 60% would be an improvement, and it's possible that the state of NC might pick up the difference. Of course, all of these possibilities will very much be influenced by the next President and Governor, and it doesn't take too much digging to figure out who'd be more favorable on these issues.

Once you cross those bridged tracks, 36th drops quite a bit down to Tryon. So, somewhat as to my hopes, the elevation of 36th & Davidson will be similar to the elevation of the new bridges - as they will raise the track level 1/2 of the clearance, and lower the road level the other 1/2.

That should really help the appearance of the 'tunnel'. If they keep the same section on 36th St (3 lanes with bike lanes IIRC) then the bridge would likely span completely over the road and sidewalks with no large supports in the middle, kind of like this, except longer, wider and in an urban context.

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If LYNX is built years before HSR, it also means that initally folks from NoDa will only be walking under a bridge pair similar to 485/South. By the time HSR adds another bridge over the lowered 36th, hopefully TOD along 36th will have made the walk between Davidson and the station more inviting.

In Chicago, no one seems to mind walking underneath an elevated station when there is bustling street life either side of it. Granted, Charlotte ain't Chicago. But out at 485/South, Sony's BBQ is hardly an urban storefront. Yet folks feel comfortable enough to walk under those bridges, whether from overflow parking or to area shopping.

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^I agree, and that was the first thing I thought about too. I suppose we in Noda need to look at how the El cuts through the Chicago 'hoods and see if we can take any cues from them. I've been screaming about the Newco Fiber building for a long time now, and I think this is where it will all start. Step one - convice the owner to sell (he is looking to lease it) it or convince the owner to rezone it and lease it (It is currently zoned Industrial).

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I don't agree that this will be a "TTA" type of project. There are several major differences:

  • CATS has a strong local funding component--Triangle not so much

Actually, apparently Parker has come out this week and said the 2030 plan is un-affordable. Could this be because they are spending the entire transit tax plus more on operations? Parker is no doubt going to go back to the local governments and ask for even more money.

I think this kinda is in line with what I posted above. CATS designed an un-buildable plan considering how they are actually spending the transit tax and the ever rising projections of costs.

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CATS designed an un-buildable plan

Cost of materials have roughly doubled in the last five years. To be fair, the grand total for roadway needs (combined state and local projects) in Mecklenburg County through 2030 now amounts to $12 Billion, for which there is less than $4 Billion in expected revenues, including 80% federal match on the bigger projects (especially larger state projects), when major transit projects can only count on 50%.

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Here's more on what Keith Parker said. I would posit that CATS didn't design a system that is unbuildable... the design is fine, but the revenue stream--put in place 10 years ago--is inadequate. He is right. People want rail and they want it ASAP. Instead of more sales taxes, it would be great if the federal government allowed states and regions to spend road money on transit if they decided they wanted to do that to supplement the sales tax revenue. For transit to work, you have to build out the system, and I think after the dismantling of our streetcar systems and 60 years and trillions of dollars spent almost exclusively on our roadway system, it might be time to make transit investments a much higher priority.

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Oh, BTW, I am pretty sure that if the price tag of the NE line is now $1B, then it no longer qualifies for any federal funding given the current cost effectiveness rules. CATS probably realizes this but has been reticent about this. They have said the South Line exceeding projections for the first year should be considered by the FTA, but I think they also have to prove they haven't actually hit the limit early. I am thinking that ridership gains have have pretty much stopped.

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Oh, BTW, I am pretty sure that if the price tag of the NE line is now $1B, then it no longer qualifies for any federal funding given the current cost effectiveness rules. CATS probably realizes this but has been reticent about this. They have said the South Line exceeding projections for the first year should be considered by the FTA, but I think they also have to prove they haven't actually hit the limit early. I am thinking that ridership gains have have pretty much stopped.

The gains? Let's be fair here. It's only been one month that it declined, 2 months ago it was at an all time high shy of our 2025 projects. Last month it declined by a few hundred but are still over 17000 riders per day. There is no proof of it stopping. At the same time, even if it has maxed for the next year or two, look at how high these numbers are! The point is that projections are nearly doubled the expected.

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The gains? Let's be fair here. It's only been one month that it declined, 2 months ago it was at an all time high shy of our 2025 projects. Last month it declined by a few hundred but are still over 17000 riders per day. There is no proof of it stopping. At the same time, even if it has maxed for the next year or two, look at how high these numbers are! The point is that projections are nearly doubled the expected.

Honestly I don't know that there is the infrastructure for much more of an increase, at least not until we get more trains, larger platforms, more parking and rides, and more residential around the line.

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On NPR today, they had a quote from the editor of CondeNast Portfolio who seemed to think the one way the government will be able to stave off an actual depression would be to greenlight more Public Works and Infrastructure projects - there by employing the masses on the government's dime - for the benefit of the people - and freeing up spending. The idea being that in the Great Depression - the government went the wrong way by freezing public works projects and adding to the mayhem.

Let's hope this is the case for CATS and all of us.

Edited by The Escapists
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The idea being that in the Great Depression - the government went the wrong way by freezing public works projects and adding to the mayhem.

Let's hope this is the case for CATS and all of us.

I don't understand that statement. FDR instituted huge public works projects during the depression to save the economy. Are you saying this didn't happen? Or that the programs didn't work?

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In any case I do agree that building a nationalized train system, similar to what they did in Japan, would be great for the economy, society and the nation They actually did all the theoretical work here in the USA in the 1960s and then promptly abandoned it. It was Europe and Japan that took up the results of the studies and the technology developed to build their systems. Meanwhile we got Amtrak.

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I don't understand that statement. FDR instituted huge public works projects during the depression to save the economy. Are you saying this didn't happen? Or that the programs didn't work?

---------

In any case I do agree that building a nationalized train system, similar to what they did in Japan, would be great for the economy, society and the nation They actually did all the theoretical work here in the USA in the 1960s and then promptly abandoned it. It was Europe and Japan that took up the results of the studies and the technology developed to build their systems. Meanwhile we got Amtrak.

I don't know enough about FDR to comment. I was simply repeating a point which I overheard which interested me.

I would like to know more about the work in the 60's, why it was abandoned and how we might revive it at a reasonable cost.

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^Unfortunately what I know about this I saw in a film presented at a transit fair that I went to once, it's not online. In the 1960s, the Federal government started a research project to redesign rail transit system using late 20th century technology. No significant work had been done in this area since the 1930s, basically before WWII. They wanted to explore computerization, automatic train control, modern materials and processes for building trains, track design, etc. Some of the ideas developed are common place now but not so at that time and some of the others were adapted by other industries. In the presentation there were tracks where test vehicles loaded with equipment were operated and they developed a lot of knowledge. I met one of the engineers who helped developed the ticketing system that is now used on most large transit systems. Prior to this work, for example, you either had tokens or conductors checking paper tickets.

Much of this knowledge was used to build BART in San Fran and to a lesser extent the DC Metro. Marta in Atlanta also used some of it. But those are the only examples. After that, there was a long period of no transit building in the USA. Unfortunately these days, most systems, such as Lynx are based on technology that is now purchased from foreign countries. There were some attempts in the 1990s by the Clinton administration, mostly due to Al Gore for the feds to invest in this again, namely in the area of high speed rail technology and in cheaper more innovative intracity rail, but most of those efforts are stopped now.

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Actually, FDR was not president when the forces that led to the Great Depression were instituted. Under Herbert Hoover the government decided to freeze many things, including public works (this was 1929 to 1933). One of the leading factors that led to FDR's win over Hoover in 1933 was the platform of the New Deal, which instituted public works (among other things) to help pull the country out of the Depression, which was at its worst in the early 30's.

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If this is known to be a factual interpretation of the two administrations of the Great Depression era, why hasn't anyone brought this up with the Republicans? If the Dems could be sure the general public would understand this concept, they could turn McCain's "cut the pork - freeze the system" platform right back on him.

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The country really can't afford another "New Deal" approach, considering the countries deficit, without leading to runaway inflation in my opinion. That said, I would support a more measured approach to government spending, as in cutting some social programs if that money was redirected to public works projects that would employ the people that were targeted in those social programs.

However, many would argue that WWII was really the catalyst for the recovery of the depression, and the "New Deal" was stop gap measure.

Anyway, way off topic, though I have head many people suggest a public works policy. It sounds like with both dems and reps pitching tax cut, that they don't think we are at that stage yet.

Back on topic,

The biggest hurdle to the transit plan, in my opinion, is the decline in retail sales, and if Perdue wins the governor, the likely political cooling to "pet" urban projects.

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.....However, many would argue that WWII was really the catalyst for the recovery of the depression, and the "New Deal" was stop gap measure.....
FDR's New Deal saved the USA from total societal collapse. My grandfather worked on a WPA program in SC and many times said it saved his family. There was nothing else.

Keep in mind that in terms of building an economy, WWII was the largest public works project in American history. For almost 5 years the government was the only customer for almost every American industry and this industry also benefited from government paid for research. The Manhattan Project alone employed 130,000 people and when it was done, it left behind a huge power grid, and other supporting industries that got turned to civilians uses. Barring another world war, then they would have to find another way to spur industry back alive again.

What isn't going to work is what they are doing now. Printing more money to dump into bankers hands is going to make things worse because it doesn't address the true problems that cause this mess. And that simply stated is that we have fundamentally changed the economy in the last 25 years from one based on production to one based on consumption financed by easy credit. It's not being fixed because that is going to involve true pain that no politician is yet ready to ask people to take on.

Building a national train system would go a long ways towards rebuilding the economy especially if they resorted to all USA development, production, and operation. It would put millions to work and provide a very beneficial benefit to the lower classes. However I question the ability for the government to be able to do something like this today. We have a whole generation now that has only been raised in the age of Reaganomics and most don't believe in such governmental programs. I am going to assume the pain is going to have to get a lot more worse before we see some real changes.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Doesn't North Carolina State have some sort of tunnel that students paint for various things? I hope that the planners of this thing will see it fit to let the art community do something like that with the tunnel walls and supports.

Yeah, the would be the Free Expression Tunnel :whistling:

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