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CATS Long Term Transit Plan - Silver, Red Lines


monsoon

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Our competition:

Nashville has proposed its very large transit plan. It calls for LRT on four corridors (26 miles of rail opening in '2026' including a 1.8 mile tunnel downtown) and BRT-lite (no dedicated lanes) on four other corridors (opening in 2019) with total costs estimated to be $5.2 billion for the Davidson County portion.  The money will be raised via a 0.5 (and in 2023 jump up to 1.0%) sales tax increase (this will take sales tax in Nashville up over 10% -- but remember Tennessee has no income tax), and 20%ish hikes in hotel-motel tax, rental car tax and business and excise tax.

The tax proposals are projected to generate $110 million per year in 2019 jumping to $200 million in 2023. The plan needs to be approved by their council in December and will be voted on in May (the off-brand election will reduce turnout)

By way of comparison our still very vague plan proposes roughly 20 additional miles of LRT for Silver+West corridor and the even vaguer Red Line (heavy, light, BRT?) needs (20 miles?). Our  current 1/2 cent transit tax generates between $70-80 million per year IIRC.

There are still tons of unknowns (cost estimates are quite crude (I might say unrealistic) and federal contributions are completely unknowable) but Nashville is proposing some dramatic changes. If this gets past the referendum its going to set an important precedent for Charlotte to follow along with a similar proposal.

  http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2017/10/17/nashville-mayor-megan-barry-unveils-ambitious-mass-transit-plan-for-music-city/759973001/

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^^^ While Nashville's plan is bold we will see what voters approve. Their sales tax will be over 10% with this proposal and even higher on hotel rental cars etc.  Their city's tourism industry is much larger than Charlotte's.  Believe me Nashville needs some help with roads and transit for sure but we will need to check back after the voters have their say.  Nashville is 10 plus years behind Charlotte on transit and believe me it shows.  And it says Nashville will do without state help.  Much as people get ticked off at NC the state here did help in a big way with our transit system. That is one of the many reasons Charlotte needs a better relationship with Raleigh and the state legislature. 

Here is another article on the plan: https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2017/10/17/how-mayor-barry-wants-you-to-fund-a-5-2-billion.html?ana=e_ae_set2&s=article_du&ed=2017-10-17&u=oAaDx%2B74FoP4qOJ%2By4AU6dhJPpc&t=1508274426&j=79010641

Edited by KJHburg
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4 hours ago, KJHburg said:

^^^ While Nashville's plan is bold we will see what voters approve. Their sales tax will be over 10% with this proposal and even higher on hotel rental cars etc.  Their city's tourism industry is much larger than Charlotte's.  Believe me Nashville needs some help with roads and transit for sure but we will need to check back after the voters have their say.  Nashville is 10 plus years behind Charlotte on transit and believe me it shows.  And it says Nashville will do without state help.  Much as people get ticked off at NC the state here did help in a big way with our transit system. That is one of the many reasons Charlotte needs a better relationship with Raleigh and the state legislature. 

Here is another article on the plan: https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2017/10/17/how-mayor-barry-wants-you-to-fund-a-5-2-billion.html?ana=e_ae_set2&s=article_du&ed=2017-10-17&u=oAaDx%2B74FoP4qOJ%2By4AU6dhJPpc&t=1508274426&j=79010641

TBH I would fully expect the state of TN to squash any Nashville/Davidson voter approved tax hikes for transit. Similar to NC GOP enacting local sales tax caps here. 

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IMO a good reason companies looking to relocate should look to states which are not so terribly gerrymandered (NC being a prime example) or have a consistently anti-urban state legislature for whatever reason. Too much risk when the voters in urban areas, where they would typically want to locate, are under represented. 

I know very little about their politics but fully expected to see TN at the top of the gerrymandering lists (i looked at several) . But it's not even close to the likes of NC,FL, TX, PA, WI etc.. Is it really true the state legislature is anti-urban? Does it mean people in Nashville, Memphis and Chattanooga don't vote?

7 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

^^^Actually no Tennessee is allowing TN cities to tax themselves for various projects and that is what Nashville is trying to get voter approval to do.  The state of NC contributed quite a bit of money I am thinking it was 25% of the existing Lynx line. 

In NC that was prior to the latest redistricting though right?

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1 hour ago, KJHburg said:

The state of NC contributed quite a bit of money I am thinking it was 25% of the existing Lynx line. 

Yes, the state paid for 25% of the Blue Line and the BLE. However they passed a two laws since then to limit their contribution to light rail to $500,000 (initially) and later revised that to 10% of total project costs . This policy has totally screwed the Durham-Orange LRT plans (three different bills were introduced to return state contributions to 25%, all three failed). It was just reflexive anti-urbanism, that same legislature did not feel a need to limit state contributions to local road projects.

(the state committed to paying 25% of the BLE before the legislature's massive shift to the right. However the RWNJs did manage to slow the state's payments dramatically, this forced CATS to get a loan from the federal government to advance the state's share so  the project could proceed)

1 hour ago, tozmervo said:

TBH I would fully expect the state of TN to squash any Nashville/Davidson voter approved tax hikes for transit. Similar to NC GOP enacting local sales tax caps here. 

I don't believe that the state of TN will contribute state funds for Nashville's transit development (but I am not certain)

Edited by kermit
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I was just thinking how I don't particularly like any of the uptown alignments for the Silver/West lines..  Has a pedestrian/LRT only street in uptown been proposed?  Potential streets off the top of my head could be Hill, Stonewall, Trade, 7th..  Would probably mean having to adjust one-way directionality in much of uptown, but could go a long way towards promoting a walking culture as well as enticing 'true' retail (i.e. the apple store everyone here seems to want) to the submarket.  

Personal preference would be to go along Hill or Stonewall in tandem with a cap on 277, but that (along with this whole idea if I am being honest) is probably a pipe dream.

Thoughts?

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The center-city/uptown alignment is not finalized. But I would suggest reading http://charlottenc.gov/cats/transit-planning/Documents/Final Recommendations.pdf

http://charlottenc.gov/cats/transit-planning/Documents/Rail Station Locations and Typologies.pdf

I went to most of the Silver Line public meetings, there are a ton of factors that go in to it and that is where I think Charlotte/CATS does a decent job (if you get involved in the process).

Because I think the Central (not CPCC) station will be the first stop outside I-277, you are left with the north-east end of uptown for Center City alignment.

Why Central not CPCC, you ask? Just look at the map and go drive through the area. So far, both light rail and streetcar projects have been used as a re-development tool, and the proposed Central stop would be way easier and have greater impact then the CPCC stop (for the money). Also, given the Little Sugar Creek pedestrian/bike bridge proposal that we saw resurface in the last weeks further leads me to believe Silver Line will go through the Central stop then follow 12th St (between 12th and I-277) up to I-77 and terminate at the Charlotte Gateway Station (before the airport section is designed, engineered and built).

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One prediction (if the Silver Line goes as I suspect):

There will be a new transfer station  on BLE and Silver Line bounded by 12th and College St and Brevard St. Where the Silver Line runs elevated and the BLE runs at the ground level until 12 St then goes up - this will allow a pedestrian bridge to connect the 2 stations.

If you know the BLE alignment -- from 12 St going East, the BLE goes up on a bridge to go over the existing freight tracks below. There is room to easily create boarding platforms on the outside of the tracks which makes the connection from Silver Line simpler (no stairs or elevators to get from one train to another - will still need stairs elevators or ramps for street access.

That's my prediction. :)

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3 hours ago, southslider said:

12th Street misses way too many jobs for a system only running every 10-15 minutes.

This is a problem solved by schedule planning and can be automated (remember LYNX is designed to run fully automated, and it did run  - until some one decided to take a nap on the tracks).

During rush hour trains run every 10 minutes...  If you ensure that the Silver Line always arrived 5 minutes before/after the Blue Line train, you've cut the guaranteed time to wait in half. This allows you to transfer from on platform to the next without rushing or thinking you're wasting time.

Same for the 15 minute frequency (for off-rush-hour) have the trains arrive close to the midway point (7.5 minute wait time).

As the city grows train frequency will come closer to every 7 min (rush-hour) and 10 min (off-hours) with the transfer stops having an even shorter wait time.

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2 hours ago, southslider said:

Most LRT systems don't force a transfer to reach the top employment stations.

With the exception of some summer mornings, I would not mind walking from future Charlotte Gateway Station down Trade (you could also get on the streetcar)

I am as certain as the MLS team not coming to Charlotte in the next 3 years - that Silver Line will not go down Stonewall.

Edited by Scribe
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^True, Stonewall is expensive, but it would at least reach CPCC, Metropolitan, and the hottest office corridor in town.

The relatively inexpensive option would be to join the Blue Line through Uptown serving the same stations between 9th and Stonewall.  You still could see a new station on 12th near N Davidson just before the join and another on Carson just after the split through Spectrum parking lot.

It's way too expensive to stay on 12th past Blue Line and wrap around all of Uptown to Gateway and the Stadium. The only way I see a big push for that expensive option is if HQ2 somehow ended up at Gateway.  Even Red Line will enter Uptown elsewhere, so Gateway may remain a misnomer. 

 

Edited by southslider
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4 hours ago, CLT704 said:

So it's a fancy looking bus ?? 

Basically, without an operator. Not a bad strategy for a more affordable transit solution if it operates in its own right of way. Los Angeles has two dedicated bus rapid transit lines and they work fairly similar to light rail for less construction costs. They have stations, you buy your ticket before boarding, limited stops, dedicated roadway, signal prioritization like a light rail train, etc.... These buses in China are much more modern, don't have an operator, and look more like light rail though. 

The Orange Line in particular has daily ridership of 23,000 with 18 stations over 18 miles. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_Line_(Los_Angeles_Metro)

Edited by CLT2014
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^ its also worth noting that the LA Orange line quickly hit its capacity limits as BRT. They are now discussing spending a billion plus to convert to rail -- a large portion of that cost could have been saved if they had built rail from the start. 

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6 hours ago, kermit said:

^ its also worth noting that the LA Orange line quickly hit its capacity limits as BRT. They are now discussing spending a billion plus to convert to rail -- a large portion of that cost could have been saved if they had built rail from the start. 

Maybe they should explore this solution from China that expands upon the capacity issues the traditional buses in the USA have. It looks like this vehicle could carry more riders. 

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On 10/25/2017 at 9:15 AM, kermit said:

^ its also worth noting that the LA Orange line quickly hit its capacity limits as BRT. They are now discussing spending a billion plus to convert to rail -- a large portion of that cost could have been saved if they had built rail from the start. 

I don't know the details of the LA Orange line, but I think there is an economic, and time-to-implementation argument for BRT in a dedicated right-of-way with a snazzy bus like this, in lieu of rail.

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1 hour ago, archiham04 said:

Ha!  just stumbled on these guys, who studied this rail vs BRT thing.

The biggest problem with the study is context.  Comparing say an LRT system in a midsize city in the US to BRT in a major city like Istanbul is an apples and oranges comparison on multiple levels: relative densities of the cities, attitudes toward bus travel, cost of implementation in one country relative to the other, etc.  In order to implement a BRT system that can match the capacity of a high-capacity LRT system at ~30000 riders per hour, much of the cost savings will go away.  A 2006 study by the USDOT of the Bogota BRT system, arguably the most successful hi-cap BRT system, concluded that a similar system would not be feasible in the US.  Further evidence from our own city suggests that even if you do have a BRT line that is similar to LRT it may not be successful.  The Silver Line was originally designed to be a BRT line, but the residents of East Charlotte threw a fit about it and demanded that they too get an LRT line.  The original BRT line was supposed to be like LRT in nearly every way, but if the people for whom the system is designed reject it, then it will just be an expensive mistake.

 

 

Edited by cltbwimob
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30 minutes ago, cltbwimob said:

The biggest problem with the study is context.  Comparing say an LRT system in a midsize city in the US to BRT in a major city like Istanbul is an apples and oranges comparison on multiple levels: relative densities of the cities, attitudes toward bus travel, cost of implementation in one country relative to the other, etc.  In order to implement a BRT system that can match the capacity of a high-capacity LRT system at ~30000 riders per hour, much of the cost savings will go away.  A 2006 study by the USDOT of the Bogota BRT system, arguably the most successful hi-cap BRT system, concluded that a similar system would not be feasible in the US.  Further evidence from our own city suggests that even if you do have a BRT line that is similar to LRT it may not be successful.  The Silver Line was originally designed to be a BRT line, but the residents of East Charlotte threw a fit about it and demanded that they too get an LRT line.  The original BRT line was supposed to be like LRT in nearly every way, but if the people for whom the system is designed reject it, then it will just be an expensive mistake.

 

 

The study specifically mentions that context is the most important factor and explains that there are major contextual differences, so I don't agree that context is a problem with the study.  Each situation has had different outcomes, with context being the decider.  W The "context" of the Silver Line has changed over time.  Originally it was a park and ride BRT along Independence.  That was widely criticized because it was antithetical to the city's TOD redevelopment narrative.  Now that they have altered the plan to capture neighborhoods that might have a hope of redeveloping, it has a new context so to speak.

I agree that riders need to support BRT for success, but I think if we can find a corridor to demonstrate the concept, that folks will understand it better.

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