CATS Long Term Transit Plan - Silver, Red Lines

[ChessieCat]

16 hours ago, kermit said:

You are 100% correct. However that approach alone would leave out Chapel Hill, so the very sub-optimal LRT becomes necessary.

There is the UNRZ spur line to Carrboro/Chapel Hill from the NCRR.  I've seen freight traffic at the wye waiting for our Piedmont train to pass by so it's in use.  It once carried pax and a famous song was written about it:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_University_Railroad

While the route is circuitous it would probably save half a billion to get to Durham...

[kermit]

32 minutes ago, ChessieCat said:

There is the UNRZ spur line to Carrboro/Chapel Hill from the NCRR.  I've seen freight traffic at the wye waiting for our Piedmont train to pass by so it's in use.  It once carried pax and a famous song was written about it:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_University_Railroad

While the route is circuitous it would probably save half a billion to get to Durham...

Yea, I actually grew up right beside it. It still sees about 2-3 round trips per week (mostly coal to the university steam plant). As soon as the students figure out the university is burning coal to heat classrooms they will raise hell (successfully), the university will switch to gas, and the spur will no longer be in use. The spur would work for commuter rail in theory  (and would save a pile of cash) but it would turn a 20 minute drive (or bus ride) into an hour long rail trip (perhaps 45 minutes with lots of $$$).

The tracks do offer some hope for connecting to the Hospital LRT stub and running LRT to Carrboro and up to UNC North (the old airport) and then the park and ride at Eubanks (I-40) once freight is gone. But it connects to the NCRR so far west of Durham that I don't see much hope for it as a connecting route in that direction.

It might be able to provide competitive commuter service to the fringe of Hillsborough, Mebane and Burlington, all communities which have seen rapid growth in refugee commuters who have been priced out of Chapel Hill.

Edited August 31, 2018 by kermit

[tozmervo]

http://charlottenc.gov/cats/transit-planning/envisionmyride/Pages/envision-my-ride.aspx

Many bus routes will be revised starting October 1. This includes new 7Q "quick" service that will be skip-stop style along Beatties Ford. This service will stop only at 15 high-volume stops along the way. This also includes some streamlining : for example the 16 South Tryon will no longer deviate into Southside Park, which should improve it's speed and reliability quite a bit. One route, 2 Ashley Park, will be modified to no longer service Uptown and will instead go to Scaleybark station as a cross-town route. 

[kermit]

The August MTC meeting minutes are out. Not a ton of new information in it and very few direct statements.  http://charlottenc.gov/cats/about/boards/_layouts/15/WopiFrame.aspx?sourcedoc=/cats/about/boards/MTC Agenda Package/MTC-Agenda-Package-180822.pdf&action=default&DefaultItemOpen=1

• CATS (in partnership with communities including Gastonia, Belmont, Indian Trail, Matthews and Stallings) have submitted a $1 million TOD planning grant for the Silver and West Line areas
• Reading between the lines on the report on public feedback on the North line: CATS is pushing BRT _hard_. I would be very surprised if we ended up with anything else.

[dubone]

Frankly the facts seem to push themselves toward BRT.   

An hour light rail ride to uptown does not draw many riders for a huge cost.    The fact of the matter is it is quite far and as long as the 45MPH minimum level of service are met on the express lanes, a BRT would be far lower cost, much more flexible to adapting to LKN development and much lower travel time. 

 

I have traditionally disliked BRT but in a case where development stimulus is not needed, and it is quite physically far, the BRT option seems to make a lot of sense. 

[kermit]

A remarkably brief FTA Quarterly Report is now out,

Not enough time for a blow by blow today, but

• Target Revenue Service date for Gold Line Phase 2: May 2020 (although some concern was noted that RNC prep may limit work site access and thus cause a delay)
• This is the first quarterly report in my memory that does not include any ridership data (hmmmm)

http://charlottenc.gov/cats/about/boards/_layouts/15/WopiFrame.aspx?sourcedoc=/cats/about/boards/FTA Quarterly/FTA-Quarterly-Agenda-180920.pdf

 

 

 

[southslider]

^Ridership is always included in the MTC Agenda packets (August summary has July ridership) on the final pages of the PDF:

http://charlottenc.gov/cats/about/boards/Pages/mtc.aspx

For July, local bus was down 9%, while rail was up 64% from last July.

 

[kermit]

More Koch brothers anti-transit activism, this time in Phoenix. We will need to call this sort of astroturfing out as we move forward with new lines.

https://usa.streetsblog.org/2018/09/25/the-koch-brothers-are-behind-a-phony-grassroots-effort-to-kill-hight-rail-in-phoenix/

[dylansukkert]

CATS crew working on gate that’s not coming down when I train comes at Remount. 

[kermit]

Interesting story on Durham's efforts to reduce parking consumption in downtown: https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/10/durhams-plan-to-nudge-drivers-out-of-cars/574264/

One of Durham's efforts I think could be well replicated here. They created a program that provided personalized transit, bike and pedestrian maps to people who provided home and work addresses by opting-in to the program designed to reduce single-occupant car use. The maps included comparison travel times by mode and some discussion of the benefits of taking each mode (carbon output, weight loss potential, gas money savings). The program's goal was to reduce single-car drivers into downtown by 5%.

I mention this because I think it is a strategy Charlotte could deploy with good effect, particularly as new apartment residents arrive in the inner-hoods. I do think having active efforts to increase transit and active trans routes would go a long way to justifying more federal transit funding down the road.

 

[Hushpuppy321]

Question: Which Lightrail Line(s) seem more likely to be built in NC within the next 5 - 10 years?  The Durham-Orange Line (DOLR) or Charlotte (CATS) Big-Bang Lines (Silver, Airport, Red BRT) and why?

[tozmervo]

7 minutes ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

Question: Which Lightrail Line(s) seem more likely to be built in NC within the next 5 - 10 years?  The Durham-Orange Line (DOLR) or Charlotte (CATS) Big-Bang Lines (Silver, Airport, Red BRT) and why?

I could see DOLR and Silver line moving forward in that time frame. DOLR is basically shovel ready and trying to pull their funds together now. The Mecklenburg planning department is actively using the Silver line preferred route to set aside easements in long-term preparation for that project.

[Hushpuppy321]

CATS Big Bang (Hopefully funding source to be released soon) idea is a good one that'll probably require some sort of Public Bond/Tax Referendum.  Due to the success of the BlueLine & BLE I think Mecklenburg Voters would approve.  Just not sure how if anyway to convince other Counties to join in a regional way.  They'd probably want BRT to their areas.

[Dale]

3 minutes ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

CATS Big Bang (Hopefully funding source to be released soon) idea is a good one that'll probably require some sort of Public Bond/Tax Referendum.  Due to the success of the BlueLine & BLE I think Mecklenburg Voters would approve.  Just not sure how if anyway to convince other Counties to join in a regional way.  They'd probably want BRT to their areas.

Well, Mecklenburgers haven’t met a referendum that they didn’t like.

[kermit]

^ I would be very surprised to see any Mecklenburg transit construction within the next 10 years. I think any new lines will take at least that long to get funded, designed and contracted.

[tozmervo]

1 hour ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

CATS Big Bang (Hopefully funding source to be released soon) idea is a good one that'll probably require some sort of Public Bond/Tax Referendum.  Due to the success of the BlueLine & BLE I think Mecklenburg Voters would approve.  Just not sure how if anyway to convince other Counties to join in a regional way.  They'd probably want BRT to their areas.

Unless I'm mistaken, there's still a state law in effect that caps county-level sales taxes, and Mecklenburg County (as well as others) are at that cap currently. 

[kermit]

^ yup, the cap is still in effect. There is lots of hard political work to do before we can start talking about construction.

My guess is they will try for a different type of tax for the Big Bang, but that will certainly get pushback from the yall’queda as well. 

[Hushpuppy321]

Not totally sure how financing works but what about Bonds?  If they had a bond referendum it possibly would require some type of off-setting tax to repay the Bonds.  Definitely can be done with property taxes (revaluation happening) but I know it won't.  Property tax is like the third rail of politics.

[DavieNative]

Anyone know why the tracks going North past Cornelius are closed and at least in one area destroyed? I thought Norfolk Southern still operated in Mooresville?

[kermit]

1 hour ago, DavieNative said:

Anyone know why the tracks going North past Cornelius are closed and at least in one area destroyed? I thought Norfolk Southern still operated in Mooresville?

It’s still active track on the NS network.  I’ll bet the disruption is just track work, it certainly needs it and NS has extra MOW crews in the area at the moment. The line is lightly used enough that it would not surprise me if they left the tracks torn up for a few weeks.

As an aside, NS has recently shifted into downsizing mode (precision scheduled railroading), so it would not surprise me if they are discussing the idea of shortlining  many of their branch routes. While the O line tracks would ordinarily  be a prime candidate for this efficiency-driven downsizing, there are several political and network roadblocks to them selling these tracks (NS needs to keep them as a negotiating tool for their next NCRR lease). Despite my pessimism, CATS had better be double checking this with NS since their perspective on their ideal network has shifted.

Edited December 4, 2018 by kermit

[tozmervo]

5 hours ago, DavieNative said:

Anyone know why the tracks going North past Cornelius are closed and at least in one area destroyed? I thought Norfolk Southern still operated in Mooresville?

If you're referring to where the tracks are torn up by the Antiquity Harris Teeter, it's been like that since August.

[DavieNative]

14 hours ago, tozmervo said:

If you're referring to where the tracks are torn up by the Antiquity Harris Teeter, it's been like that since August.

That is what I'm referring to. I've seen trains up in Mooresville and just south of that at one of the plants. guessing they just aren't sending anything in between?

[Spartan]

On 11/30/2018 at 3:50 PM, tozmervo said:

Unless I'm mistaken, there's still a state law in effect that caps county-level sales taxes, and Mecklenburg County (as well as others) are at that cap currently. 

It's not a cap. North Carolina is a Dillons Rule state, which means that local government can't do anything outside of it's authorized purview. So, local option sales taxes require enabling legislation to allow a referendum on the sales tax, and we currently lack that enabling legislation for a new tax. The highly gerrymandered house and senate districts in this state produce a general assembly that is not favorable to any new taxes, even when they are supported by their communities. It's also the same party control that disallowed state funds to be allocated to anything other than travel lanes for cars (bike facilities, sidewalks, railroads, etc), and limited state participation in light rail projects to a 10% match. So, it's not to say that the North Carolina General Assembly can't participate in this process, it's just that the scenarios where that happens are highly unlikely. On top of all that,  if I were to bet on it, the minority party is putting more political capital into righting the wrongs of the current system to create a legislature that accurately represents the state, rather than funding for Charlotte's transit system. Just guessing though.

 

On 11/30/2018 at 4:55 PM, Hushpuppy321 said:

Not totally sure how financing works but what about Bonds?  If they had a bond referendum it possibly would require some type of off-setting tax to repay the Bonds.  Definitely can be done with property taxes (revaluation happening) but I know it won't.  Property tax is like the third rail of politics.

I honestly don't know how they are going to fund it without a sales tax increase... but even then, a half-cent sales tax won't be enough and even if that is approved, there are other types of infrastructure that could use sustained revenue that affect more people. Bonds probably need to be part of the bigger picture, but keeping in mind that it would mean a property tax increase or two at the County level in order to make a meaningful impact . The County funds schools, parks, health services, social services, etc. so it would be competing with those interests as well.

My guess is that it would need to come from a combination of sales taxes, property taxes, tax increment financing, federal funds, state funds, and perhaps other local revenue of some sort. They'll probably have a better sense of what the ask is after the 2030 System Plan is done and they do some cost estimates.

[southslider]

They should figure out a new name for the system plan update without a year attached. 2025 becoming 2030 becoming 2050 doesn't exactly sell voters on a big funding increase. 

[Hushpuppy321]

I understand what you mean about the 'Comprehensive Plans' becoming stale and just repackaged with a new target date.  I been doing  some research in the last couple days on how Nashville's Big-Bang type Transit plans were voted down and it makes me worry for Charlotte.  Two reasons why is mostly about the Regional / Local divide and the recalcitrant State Legislature issues.

Typically folks further out in the region aren't as solidly supporting Transit because they feel it won't benefit them and/or are very car centric / car dependent because most would probably live too far away from any planned transit stops to make a daily commute feasible.  TN Legislature at least allowed for Nashville to have a local (County) referendum even though they didn't allow for a more Regional (Multi-County) referendum.  I doubt we'll (NC Legislature) get the strangle hold released on State Transit funding of Lightrail Lines in NC.  Their law/current stance makes any ideas of funding and constructing lines much more difficult.  I was slightly fantasizing about the idea of CATS Big Bang Plan being made public in 2019 and subsequently the NC Legislature reversing course on their Transit funding Law and approving Charlotte/CATS Mass Transit Plan (at least State portion & allowing regional referendum) all in time to showcase their benevolence/goodwill/infrastructure plan in time for the 2020 RNC.  Tall order indeed.

Hopefully in the meantime - We'll get three car trains (Southern stations need Upgrading/lengthening) and that new stop in Southend to keep the Charlotte areas Transit momentum rolling.  I'm not as much excited by any further Goldline extensions (beyond Phase II under construction) until future Lightrail and BRT (north Meck & possibly regionally since we will have ample Toll Lanes & Toll Roads to run them on) have been funded.  I'd much rather see Gateway Station take final steps towards full funding and being constructed.