CATS Long Term Transit Plan - Silver, Red Lines

[Nathan2]

1 hour ago, Scribe said:

You must have missed a few years here? Arguably,  we even lost a governor to the toll lanes ...

No one was arguing with the cost. Just who was getting the deal and toll lanes themselves. If it was all free general lanes for a billion dollars no one would have cared. 

[kermit]

Relevant by way of scale comparison. Austin has just rolled out a $9.7 billion transit plan. At a glance it appears to be 2 LRT lines, one convertible BRT line, 1.6 miles of downtown transit tunnel, some light expansion of existing commuter rail (two infill stations) and a bunch of expanded bus service.  

* it is expected they will put the plan to a vote in NOVEMBER * 
 

https://www.austinchronicle.com/daily/news/2020-03-06/trains-tunnels-billions-austin-gets-first-look-at-proposed-transit-plan/

Edited March 6, 2020 by kermit

[kermit]

10 hours ago, RANYC said:

I don’t mean just lanes set aside, I mean entirely dedicated streets to shared autonomous vehicle shuttles.  In the same way that track lines are dedicated to light rail, this would dedicate and convert an entire roadway to autonomous vehicles with tech components lining the street to guide and interact with the vehicle.  Align adjacent land uses to mass transit, use crossing gates for intersections similar to what’s done for light rail, and don’t you end up with a somewhat cheaper option for reliable mass transit corridors versus going out and buying land to lay track lines from scratch?  The technology is being tested and there’s growing consensus around its feasibility.  Our silver line isn’t going to be ready until 2030 and potentially at great expense, can’t we consider alternatives that may get us to the same mobility goal at potentially less cost?

Yea, you could do all this, but I am not sure it would be any cheaper. Rails aren't the expensive part of LRT, its the right of way. Asphalt also costs more to maintain in the long run.  Another big question is vehicle cost differential.

Vancouver, Paris and London has exactly what you propose already (except using rail vehicles)

http://thecanadaline.com

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Métro_Line_14

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Docklands_Light_Railway

 

 

Edited March 6, 2020 by kermit

[RANYC]

1 hour ago, kermit said:

Yea, you could do all this, but I am not sure it would be any cheaper. Rails aren't the expensive part of LRT, its the ROW. Asphalt also costs more to maintain in the long run. Another big question is vehicle cost differential.

Vancouver, Paris and London has exactly what you propose already (except using rail vehicles)

http://thecanadaline.com

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Métro_Line_14

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Docklands_Light_Railway

 

 

Thank you for those links!  Checking that out now.

[KJHburg]

what Austin is planning and I think Bus Rapid Transit needs to be a bigger part of the expansion here too.   and Austin traffic is legendary (bad) 

https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/2020/03/06/capital-metro-transit-plan-embraces-trains.html

[kermit]

In addition to negative real interest rates, there is new research documenting the substantial value creation by new transit and the failure of the local taxing authority to capture that value and apply it to transit construction costs. 

The money for transit expansion is here,  all CATS gotta do is connect the dots.

 

 

Edited March 6, 2020 by kermit

[kermit]

Not much happening in this Quarterly report: https://charlottenc.gov/cats/about/boards/FTA Quarterly/FTA_Quarterly_Review_Meeting_200310.pdf#search=CATS FTA agenda

BLE:

• ·         There are still 43(!!!) open items on the track and systems portion of the contract with Balfour Beatty. These issues include track movement and grade crossing mechanisms.  CATS expects all these items to be addressed by “April 2020” (pdf 23) (lots of Surety meetings and mediation continue to happen between CATS, BB and surety agent)

Gold Line Phase 1:

• ·         Contracts are ready for closeout
•           Project finished nearly $4 million under budget ??!!!?? (per budget summary on pdf 38). If this is true its a good thing because Phase 2 looks like it will need that cash!

Gold Line Phase 2:

• ·         Substantial project completion target: October 2020
• ·         Testing: November 2020
• ·         Target Revenue Service Date: January 2020
•           Biggest risk to project other than Hawthorne bridge was the new Gateway rail bridge. That appears to have been largely resolved (this is good news).

Gateway:

• ·         RFP development proposals due March 2020!
• ·         Award contract to master developer April 2020! (no inkling of issues with developers which have been reported here, but I would not expect to see those concerns noted here)
• ·         Phase 1 of project (including new train station) complete “2023”
• ·         No other information on the development process

Silver Line:

• ·         Nothing new

North Corridor BRT:

• ·        Four new park and rides and two new express lane direct connects planned
•          BRT planned to be "integrated into mixed use developments that also incorporate emerging tech for first/last mile connections"??? (pdf 98)
•           Consultant on design phase of BRT will be selected “Spring 2020”

 Sales Tax revenue:

• Apprx $2 million over projections

 

 

Edited March 9, 2020 by kermit

[kermit]

This is north of the Red Line routing but its strange enough to mention. It appears that the city of Mooresville just recieved a $4.5 million federal grant to build a bridge so Mazeppa Rd (at NC 115) can flyover the O-Line tracks. 

I am surprised that that section of track sees enough rail traffic to justify this. I don't have the impression that NS pushed for this. Its a mystery to me... Did Thom Tillis make a call?

Quote

• Town of Mooresville, North Carolina, $4.5 million, for the Mazeppa Road Flyover Rail Crossing project to eliminate the grade crossing and build a four-lane bridge for vehicular traffic at the intersection of Mazeppa/Connector Road and North Carolina State Highway NC-115 with NS in Mooresville.

https://www.progressiverailroading.com/federal_legislation_regulation/news/USDOT-announces-CRISI-grants-for-rail-infrastructure-projects--59973

Edited March 14, 2020 by kermit

[southslider]

On 3/9/2020 at 3:55 PM, kermit said:

Sales Tax revenue:

• Apprx $2 million over projections

Hopefully soften the loss next quarter 

[RANYC]

Any chance the stimulus package being negotiated between the Congress and White House includes accelerated funding for shovel-ready mass transit projects?

Edited March 17, 2020 by RANYC

[kermit]

4 minutes ago, RANYC said:

Any chance the stimulus package being negotiated between the Congress and White House includes accelerated funding for shovel-ready mass transit projects?

1) I have not heard any inklings about that. There has been a small amount of discussion of operating subsidies for transit agencies since farebox revenue has cratered -- but I doubt we will see even that. (FWIW transit agencies employ more people than US airlines)

2) Politicians of all kinds feel like density is the enemy at the moment

3) The Silver Line (or BLE-E) isn't "shovel-ready" yet (a consulting firm is working on Silver Line engineering now but it is not close to finished)

It seems inevitable that frequencies will be reduced (since ridership is falling). My main concern is that frequencies won't go back up to reasonable levels when all this is over

[kermit]

Based on what it looks like other city’s transit orgs are getting from the stimulus bill, I suspect that CATS will get something on the order of $80-$90 million in operational subsidies from the federal program, roughly equal to one year of transit tax revenue.

[this is speculation based on twitter chat (by generally credible people) about the stimulus,  I have not seen the bill]

Edited March 25, 2020 by kermit

[southslider]

This aid will also help avoid overall budget cuts, and thereby keep Silver Line on track, that is, assuming sales taxes can recover in a year or two.

Edited March 25, 2020 by southslider

[Matthew.Brendan]

Was the Big Bang ever more than just a pipe dream?

[XRZ.ME]

Fed might have some infrastructure stimulus in working. Could be a chance for big bang.

[kermit]

On 3/31/2020 at 3:08 PM, XRZ.ME said:

Fed might have some infrastructure stimulus in working. Could be a chance for big bang.

Unfortunately Silver Line preliminary engineering (the design work that must get done before federal grants can be applied for) got started in December (2019) and is said to be a "five to seven year process" (meaning preliminary engineering, environmental impact, etc. not done until either 2025 or 2027).  Unless the FTA changes its policies, or the stimulus is specifically crafted for CATS' situation (I doubt Tommy Tillis, Alma Adams or Dan Bishop (aka the moron) are interested in making that happen) then CATS and the Big Bang will likely be left in the cold -- partly because CATS et al.  have been dragging their feet on expansion.

https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2019/10/15/ten-digit-number-with-no-plan-why-charlotte.html

Blue Line Extension 2.0 is even further behind that timeline and I don't believe (but am not certain) that any preliminary engineering has been done on Gold Line Phase 3 either.

Cratering gas tax revenues mean that state funds for transit will be even more limited so any extra federal money might only allow us to tread water.

What could we get?

• Money for Gateway Station (the actual station) funding should the developer not materialize -- the Gateway district would be an easier sell if the station already existed
• More Blue Line Vehicles / remaining platform extensions (along with some buses)
• Walkability / bike ability money (Cross Charlotte trail) IF... Alma Adams is paying attention (Independence blvd signature ped/bike bridge, I am looking at you)
• Grants to freight railroads (if congress does its job the grants would be contingent on increased flexibility for commuter rail (the O-Line?!?)

Outside of Charlotte I could see:

• Triangle Commuter rail (Durham to Clayton)
• Wake County BRT (I think)
• S-Line tracks purchase from Raleigh to the state line (along with some funds for Virginia intercity rail upgrades)
• and a bunch of bullcrap new highways

Edited April 2, 2020 by kermit

[kermit]

Bit less than I had hoped for, but this should prevent service gutting if we manage to come out of this over the summer

 

 

[southslider]

^For perspective, $60M is about two-thirds of the annual revenue from the County sales tax for transit.

[tozmervo]

Going to a Saturday schedule through the week should have gone a very long way to stemming their losses, but I don't know if they have extra staff cleaning. Also, gas is ludicrously cheap now and one of their biggest expenses.

[navigator319]

17 hours ago, kermit said:

Bit less than I had hoped for, but this should prevent service gutting if we manage to come out of this over the summer

 

 

Any Idea the formula how they get to these allocation numbers?    

table-2-cares-act-apportionment-section-5307-urbanized-area-formula.xlsx

[kermit]

While this statement does not mean this is likely to happen, but I am very pleased that the 2030 Transit Plan is at least on Alma Adams' radar.

Quote

["What would you like to see in an infrastructure stimulus"] Adams: “I am happy to work with President Trump if we can get a healthy, diverse infrastructure plan for the 21st Century. We should get Charlotte’s 2030 Transit Corridor System Plan built, because any infrastructure plan of that scale has to focus on green transportation and creating jobs that will still be here in 20 years. If the package reflects Charlotte’s affordable housing priorities and includes housing as infrastructure, I think it will be able to generate some support from the House. It should treat higher education projects, including for HBCUs, as essential infrastructure. However, if it’s just interstate projects that will contribute to climate change, I’m out.”

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article241777526.html

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by kermit

[tozmervo]

Listening in on the MTC meeting this evening (don't worry, I was also playing Animal Crossing). Here are a few key takeaways:

• CATS's 2021 FY budget doesn't appear to be a complete disaster (so far). They are already conservative with their numbers  and took into account an anticipated $57m from the CARES act.
• It appears they plan on a gradual reinstatement of full service levels. Not sure what that looks like, but acknowledges that they won't completely go back to normal service levels all at once. 
• Anticipates that fares will be reinstated within a week or two of the stay-at-home orders being lifted (allows time for folks to get their discount passes, etc. in order)
• CATS is still keeping a full maintenance staff active to catch up & get ahead on maintenance issues
• There are cases where CATS had to add unscheduled bus and train service to keep occupancy levels low enough to keep physical distancing possible.

[Hushpuppy321]

Articulated Buses - Why don’t we (NC) have any?  Was there a law passed...?

Edited April 23, 2020 by Hushpuppy321

[kermit]

10 minutes ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

Articulated Buses - Why don’t we (N) have any?  Was there a law passed...?

Yes, by Dan Bishop or Jim Black (I think) who when in the state senate got the law passed to force CATS to run rail to Matthews rather than the original BRT plan.

[Hushpuppy321]

1 minute ago, kermit said:

Yes, by Dan Bishop or Jim Black (I think) who when in the state senate got the law passed to force CATS to run rail to Matthews rather than the original BRT plan.

Thanks for the heads up.  Any reason why they took this position?  Is it a safety thing or emissions or both?