CATS Long Term Transit Plan - Silver, Red Lines

[kermit]

The summary of the September MTC meeting was published: https://charlottenc.gov/cats/about/boards/MTC Agendas/MTC_Agenda_Summary_201118.pdf

While there were no speakers who signed up who were against the Central ave bus lanes, I got the impression (based on statements from committee members) that there has been LOTS of pushback against them.

The other noteworthy element of the meeting minutes was a bunch of discussion of the Red Line. Some discussion of NS -possibly- changing its attitude about the line (IMO very unlikely). Of more concern was many of the N Meck contingent were pushing for electric, rather than diesel rail. While such a strategy is sensible, no one seemed aware of the much higher cost involved with electrification. FWIW there were also some Charlotte Moves maps in the packet (linked above) which show plans for both the toll lane BRT as well as a rail corridor to N Meck (on the east side of 77)

[kermit]

Not many details yet on the specifics of funding but it sounds like the MOVES task force is recommending the max sales tax increase (1%) which is estimated to raise $6.6 billion over 30 years.  Based on that number it sounds like they are also recommending a relatively small property tax hike. Seems like a kinda regressive way to go....

The sales tax hike will require legislative approval. The plan goes to council on the 14th. Everybody says it needs to go to referendum this year.

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article247575565.html

Edited December 4, 2020 by kermit

[Blue_Devil]

9 hours ago, kermit said:

Not many details yet on the specifics of funding but it sounds like the MOVES task force is recommending the max sales tax increase (1%) which is estimated to raise $6.6 billion over 30 years.  Based on that number it sounds like they are also recommending a relatively small property tax hike. Seems like a kinda regressive way to go....

The sales tax hike will require legislative approval. The plan goes to council on the 14th. Everybody says it needs to go to referendum this year.

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article247575565.html

The sooner it goes the better. This needs to start getting built out now. Does the actual proposal include more cars for Blue Line and expansion to 3 car stops? 

[kermit]

2 hours ago, Blue_Devil said:

Does the actual proposal include more cars for Blue Line and expansion to 3 car stops? 

AFAIK they haven’t reached this level of detail yet. They have released some maps which show route improvements, and the Btyne extension is on those maps. I would not imagine they would build that without expanding the remainder of the platforms but that is just an assumption on my part. The federal govt was amenable to funding a large portion of the platform extension back when the project was underway via their capacity enhancement grant program.

They are looking at building a $12 billion pot of money for ‘mobility.’ The Silver Line is currently WAG’ed at $3.5 billion (ish).

Edited December 4, 2020 by kermit

[JHart]

29 minutes ago, kermit said:

AFAIK they have not been that specific with the plan yet. They have released some maps which show route improvements, and the Btyne extension is on those maps. I would not imagine they would build that without expanding the remainder of the platforms.

They are looking at building a $12 billion pot of money for ‘mobility.’ The Silver Line is currently WAG’ed at $3.5 billion.

This city absolutely needs improved urban transit investment and I'm a huge proponent for, but damn is it hard even for me to support $12B in blank check funding given how poorly CATS has been doing with their current lines/budgets

[Bikeguy]

How about someone asking our newly reelected Senator from  Cornelius to speak to NS that it would be in their best interest to participate in genuine discussions with NCDOT & CATS to sell the underused Red Line  to the NCRR ..  

[Third Strike]

5 hours ago, Bikeguy said:

How about someone asking our newly reelected Senator from  Cornelius to speak to NS that it would be in their best interest to participate in genuine discussions with NCDOT & CATS to sell the underused Red Line  to the NCRR ..  

I remember reading how NS’ predecessor had like a century-long lease on using the NCRR line. Maybe the state could reach another similar deal, in exchange for allowing CATS to use the O-Line. 

[kermit]

7 hours ago, Third Strike said:

I remember reading how NS’ predecessor had like a century-long lease on using the NCRR line. Maybe the state could reach another similar deal, in exchange for allowing CATS to use the O-Line. 

I spend way more time thinking about the NS-NCRR lease than I should. The current lease of the NCRR has about 23 years left on it, but I think (without any insider knowledge) that there is a chance NS will decide not to renew. I also think NS has an option to end the agreement without penalty in just 8 years. The only portion of the NCRR they make any money on is Charlotte to Greensboro, but they are paying to maintain an additional 200+ miles of track down to Morehead City.  Charlotte to Gboro does allow NS to maintain FAST freight rail service from the northeast down to Atlanta. However, the NS main south of Charlotte has become quite congested and was (pre-covid)  becoming an unreliable freight corridor for them -- this diminishes the value of the NCRR due to the bottleneck to the south.

Because of the drag of the unused portions of the NCRR and capacity limitations south of Charlotte, I think NS may consider these three options when lease renewal comes around in 8 or 23 years:

• Upgrade the O-Line route Roanoke-Winston-Charlotte to mainline status and use it to replace the NCRR from Gboro to Charlotte (see map below). I think this would be difficult and expensive as the tracks will require some complicated bridge replacements. Even after spending $$$ on track upgrades the tracks will still be SLOW since it is curvy and the tracks run through the middle of Winston and all the N Meck towns. There would be a ton of NIMBY pushback, they can ignore it all but will still be annoying for management.  I doubt NS will actually do this, but they need to keep this option open for any NCRR lease renegotiation. This is why their anti-Red Line stance still exists and why NS won't agree to a sale-leaseback deal with CATS/NCDOT for these tracks.
•  NS could abandon nearly all their rail service to NC by rerouting their north-south freight Roanoke-Knoxville-Chattanooga-Atlanta. I think this is all high-speed double-track and has a good bit of capacity to spare. I don't think this would be much (if any) slower than the NCRR route and Atlanta-Charlotte freight could be handled via Greenville or Columbia stub routes. Honestly I don't think NS generates enough revenue on local shippers in NC that they would loose much sleep about giving up business east of Charlotte.
• NS may offer to purchase a portion of the NCRR corridor from Greensboro to Charlotte. While I think they would prefer to avoid this much capex, it may be cheaper than leasing and maintaining the full 300 mile NCRR over another 50 year period of declining revenues. The market price might be in the neighborhood of $250-300 million (based on the recent VA-CSX purchase). Ideally this purchase would only be of 50ish feet (two track widths) of the full 200 ft wide NCRR corridor -- this would allow for separate freight and passenger tracks. IMO it would be a huge mistake for NC to sell the full width of the NCRR, that much ROW just can't be recreated and it serves a huge public service.

Any of these outcomes would probably result in a shortline assuming operations on what is left of the NCRR (paying much less than NS did for the privilege). This would leave NC as the owners of 300 miles of track but with much less revenue coming in to maintain it.  Brightline (or similar company) might lease passenger rights (IF there Orlando project is profitable), but again, it would not be enough money to pay for track maintenance on a class 5 or 6 railway.  Commuter service on NCRR tracks in Charlotte and the Triangle could make a dent in those expenses but I doubt they (combined w Brightline) could pay as much as NS does now.

While the current NCRR lease has a long way to go, I'll bet that there is someone at NS who is making these calculations now.

Other thoughts:

• Much of the problem of declining profitability on the NCRR is caused by the failure of NC to attract many new factories which rely on rail freight. Our loss of rural industry and the rise of Charlotte and Raleigh as knowledge economies gutted our carload traffic.
• CSX would gain nothing from an NCRR lease, I doubt they will even kick the tires.
• Declining quality freight service on the NCRR (e.g. shortlining) would make it much harder for NC to land any big megaproject industrial developments
• Class one Railroad consolidation has been 'just over the horizon' for a long time now. If UP or BNSF were to combine with NS then I could see the new corporate parent want to sell the O-Line as a non-performing asset,  and they would have plenty of capital to come to some permanent arrangement for CLT-Gboro (either purchase or walk away from)

NS Route Map: (the two tracks to Asheville are just about sold / abandoned)

Edited December 5, 2020 by kermit

[videtur quam contuor]

There was a freight line that ran through downtown Charlotte where the light rail is now. Carload traffic died there decades ago. It is part of the transition. Nothing new. Thanks Kermit for keeping us up to date.

[kermit]

Crap like this makes me think that CATS should not spend a dime to build transit to Gaston County:

Quote

The City of Belmont is holding a public meeting Monday, Dec. 7 to consider amending Chapter 4 of the Land Development Code (LDC). If amended, the minimum side-yard setback for single-family residential lots will increase space between houses.

People (who don't even live there) are uptight about houses in a new subdivision being “too close together”

https://www.fox46.com/news/how-close-is-too-close-homes-in-new-belmont-subdivisions-built-just-feet-apart/

Why are people so comfortable regulating housing to the point that it is no longer a free market commodity?  Preventing density because people elsewhere in town feels a little socialismish for current homeowners.

If they pass the amendment the Belmont council should appropriately label it— its an anti-affordable housing policy.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 6, 2020 by kermit

[davidclt]

On 12/2/2020 at 9:15 PM, kermit said:

Of more concern was many of the N Meck contingent were pushing for electric, rather than diesel rail. While such a strategy is sensible, no one seemed aware of the much higher cost involved with electrification.

While the initial costs would be higher to electrify the line, why would we not make the much more sensible long-term decision given that a good portion of their fuel mix in this region is (relatively clean) nuclear? Yes, diesel will be less expensive in the short run but we need to think 30 even 50-years out.

Edited December 6, 2020 by davidclt

[davidclt]

This doesn't bode well for mass transit in the bigger cities (of which Charlotte is increasingly becoming by fits and starts): ‘Existential Peril’: Mass Transit Faces Huge Service Cuts Across U.S. - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

[kermit]

^ yea, you are right. Electrifying the O-line would certainly be cheaper in the long run. Unfortunately, in the short run, it will just irritate NS more (they don’t like to run under wire but it is possible).

Commuter rail in Denver offers some interesting lessons for the Red Line these days. They had planned for commuter rail from Denver to Boulder (the B-Line) but they ran into resistance with BNSF who owns the tracks (and still uses them moderately) and also had problems financing the necessary improvements. The end result was no rail for Boulder and they get express buses / BRT lite instead (sound familiar?). Anyway...  a proposal for Front Range  intercity rail  (phase 1 is Colorado Springs to Ft Collins via Denver) is now getting some traction (despite it being -very- expensive). The preferred route runs through Boulder so it is also a backdoor strategy for getting the B-Line built on the cheap. This new plan is shockingly analogous to reopening all of the O-Line for intercity service CLT-Winston (could extend to Gboro and Raleigh without much additional difficulty) and overlaying Red Line commuter service on top.

Its an interesting parallel process. Using this strategy here would get generate more political and financial support from the state  as well as a couple new legislative groups from the Winston area. The intercity plan would also mean that any dollars spent on the Red Line would have a higher ROI and would be eligible for federal money  from the FRA as well as the FTA. Despite those benefits, this strategy would probably be even less appealing to NS unless they finally decided to abandon the whole line.
https://www.cpr.org/2020/12/04/front-range-rail-project-gets-a-rough-2b-price-tag-as-rtd-looks-to-jump-on-board/

 

Edited December 6, 2020 by kermit

[CLTranspo]

2 hours ago, kermit said:

The end result was no rail for Boulder and they get express buses / BRT lite instead (sound familiar?).

 

I will say that the express bus route from downtown Denver to Boulder is very popular and well-run. Very frequent service with coach bus type buses, initiates from the Union Station facility (large underground waiting area for boarding/unboarding buses that also links the aboveground commuter rail, Amtrak, and several light rail termini). Then dedicated flyover ramps for the buses put them on HOV/HOT lanes on I-25 and then US 36 (only the very last part of the route into Boulder is not on HOT lanes) with some high quality TOD stops in areas like Broomfield - some of the best ones have ped bridges across the freeway and park and ride garages surrounded by TOD development. So overall, it's not *quite* full BRT but I do think it's very high quality service with the frequency and  stop connectivity. I would be happy if Charlotte managed to operate something similar along the I-77 HOT lanes into Uptown/Gateway. 

[Desert Power]

10 hours ago, davidclt said:

This doesn't bode well for mass transit in the bigger cities (of which Charlotte is increasingly becoming by fits and starts): ‘Existential Peril’: Mass Transit Faces Huge Service Cuts Across U.S. - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

I'm not very optimistic about the attempt to get a big transit bill passed next year.

[elrodvt]

This country is in such a backwards path right now wrt to climate change and, by extension, mass transit. It's hard to imagine how this ship will be righted. NYC is on a path to disaster.

[kermit]

 

 

[navigator319]

If I had to vote today I’d be against. I have no faith in CATS.

[CLT>]

I'd like to see Lewis gone, but changing CEOs mid campaign is not good. Really hope there's some true leadership soon.

[CLT>]

Interesting comparative look at transit agencies by Opex per train hour.

https://twitter.com/a320lga/status/1336095052553195526?s=10

[davidclt]

31 minutes ago, CLT> said:

Interesting comparative look at transit agencies by Opex per train hour.

https://twitter.com/a320lga/status/1336095052553195526?s=10

It looks like John Lewis runs CATS the way Jerry Orr did CLT (cheap and penny wise, pound foolish).

[kermit]

2 hours ago, CLT> said:

Interesting comparative look at transit agencies by Opex per train hour.

https://twitter.com/a320lga/status/1336095052553195526?s=10

Super interesting! While the bar chart does not lend itself to precise interpretations, I'll make a couple of observations anyway...

• General administration expenses look kinda high for us relative to peers
• Facility and vehicle maintenance expenses are likely to be artificially low since the BLE is only 3 years old and the Blue Line is still less than 15 years old. Nearly all of the systems on the right are much older (and are all heavy rail) so upkeep costs are expected to be  higher -- its not necessarily an indication of poor management.
• Higher ops costs for PATH and MTA are due to union rules which require both a engineer/driver and conductor on each train. I believe these are the only two non-commuter US transit systems with 2 person crews. Its not clear from the data if the operating expenses include the cost of station attendants / ticket sellers/takers (e.g. every WMATA and CTA station has an attendant)
• Good job keeping vehicle opex low, but as we saw with the bungled overhaul of the 100 series vehicles just before Covid, that spending is, as davidclt says,  "pound foolish"

Having said all that, the headline number looks good for the rail portion of CATS, that will certainly help when referendum time comes around.

Edited December 8, 2020 by kermit

[tozmervo]

9 hours ago, kermit said:

• Good job keeping vehicle opex low, but as we saw with the bungled overhaul of the 100 series vehicles just before Covid, that spending is, as davidclt says,  "pound foolish"

What's the bungled overhaul?

[kermit]

15 hours ago, tozmervo said:

What's the bungled overhaul?

My apologies, I was sloppy with my language. The issue was from last Fall/Winter when peak hour ridership was consistently crush loaded and an increasing number of reliability problems were appearing (mostly lots of cancelled trains). In mid February Lewis put out the memo below saying that reliability problems were partially a problem of vehicle maintenance and life cycle. The bungling was a product of the slower than design speeds on the BLE, which forced Lewis to pull trains out of service to get them overhauled. This unfortunate situation  reduced frequencies at a really bad time to reduce frequencies. This guy says, this would not have been a problem were it not for the BLE speed issues, but I think he may be an idiot.

Having said all that, this management problem (reduced frequencies due to poor planning and construction management) magically disappeared thanks to covid. I have not heard anything about how the overhauls of the 100 series vehicles are progressing (and I'll assume they are going fine), so it was unfair of me to say that the actual overhauls were bungled.

 

 

Edited December 9, 2020 by kermit

[LKN704]

Has the first batch of vehicles already reached its midlife?  
Portland has some light rail vehicles that are close to 40 years of age.