CATS Long Term Transit Plan - Silver, Red Lines

[emansius]

11 minutes ago, jednc said:

Not a surprise at all. North Neck was promised commuter rail and didn't get it. Why continue to back a tax for nothing?

If 2007's repeal effort is any indicator of present conditions, something like 68% of the half-cent sales tax goes toward operating the bus system. Comparatively little goes to building out other forms of transit (e.g. light rail and commuter rail), so undoing the tax would do more damage to lines/routes currently in operation (including the express routes to North Meck that came about because of the passage of the tax in 1998). People often forget that the tax wasn't designed to only fund the construction of the LYNX system; eliminating the tax won't have the effect these people intend, as any "savings" residents gain by doing away with the tax will likely result in paying more property taxes to keep CATS and the existing LYNX running (even at reduced service). Below is the Observer's 2007 analysis of a repeal:

"The city estimates that a family with the area's median income - just under $60,000 - pays about $40 a year for the half-cent sales tax for mass transit. Should that tax be repealed, the city predicts four possible scenarios. Two are unlikely. One would involve cutting bus service and not running the light-rail line. That isn't likely because CATS would have to repay the state and federal government $306 million used to build the south corridor rail line. Another unlikely scenario would replace the sales tax with a steep property tax to build rapid transit corridors.

Here are the two most likely scenarios:

Stop all future rail construction. Operate the south corridor light-rail line, though service would be reduced. Cut bus service, including dropping Sunday service, cutting 41 of 76 routes, and increasing fares. This would spur a property tax hike that would add roughly $58 a year on a house with a taxable value of $159,900.

Stop all future rail construction but fully operate the south corridor light-rail line. Keep the bus system as it is today with no expansion plans. This would cost $171 a year in new property taxes for that same house. CATS could also choose a level of service somewhere in between. The city could also raise property taxes and make budget cuts, though officials have said there is little room in the budget."

Amazing how quickly people forget....

[southslider]

North Towns comprise a minority of all registered voters in Mecklenburg.  Only a simple majority county-wide is needed to keep the tax.  The repeal vote in 2007 failed by a huge margin.

[jednc]

2 hours ago, emansius said:

If 2007's repeal effort is any indicator of present conditions, something like 68% of the half-cent sales tax goes toward operating the bus system. Comparatively little goes to building out other forms of transit (e.g. light rail and commuter rail), so undoing the tax would do more damage to lines/routes currently in operation (including the express routes to North Meck that came about because of the passage of the tax in 1998). People often forget that the tax wasn't designed to only fund the construction of the LYNX system; eliminating the tax won't have the effect these people intend, as any "savings" residents gain by doing away with the tax will likely result in paying more property taxes to keep CATS and the existing LYNX running (even at reduced service). Below is the Observer's 2007 analysis of a repeal:

"The city estimates that a family with the area's median income - just under $60,000 - pays about $40 a year for the half-cent sales tax for mass transit. Should that tax be repealed, the city predicts four possible scenarios. Two are unlikely. One would involve cutting bus service and not running the light-rail line. That isn't likely because CATS would have to repay the state and federal government $306 million used to build the south corridor rail line. Another unlikely scenario would replace the sales tax with a steep property tax to build rapid transit corridors.

Here are the two most likely scenarios:

Stop all future rail construction. Operate the south corridor light-rail line, though service would be reduced. Cut bus service, including dropping Sunday service, cutting 41 of 76 routes, and increasing fares. This would spur a property tax hike that would add roughly $58 a year on a house with a taxable value of $159,900.

Stop all future rail construction but fully operate the south corridor light-rail line. Keep the bus system as it is today with no expansion plans. This would cost $171 a year in new property taxes for that same house. CATS could also choose a level of service somewhere in between. The city could also raise property taxes and make budget cuts, though officials have said there is little room in the budget."

Amazing how quickly people forget....

 

Not really arguing the reality...arguing the perception. And, arguing just my own point of view. I don't ride the bus...I would ride the train. I happily pay the tax but I want a train as I was promised. Go ahead, find some stat that argues that one!

[jednc]

1 hour ago, southslider said:

North Towns comprise a minority of all registered voters in Mecklenburg.  Only a simple majority county-wide is needed to keep the tax.  The repeal vote in 2007 failed by a huge margin.

 

That's what Mr. McCrory thought too. You'd be surprised how much pent up anger there is up here about the toll lanes and the perception that Charlotte hung No. Meck out to dry when they didn't vote to block those lanes when they had the chance. I'm not even really saying I'd vote for repeal...but I would think about it because the whole sales tactic for the north was the commuter rail...and we're still waiting. I don't work in Charlotte, so I don't need CATS to keep bus service at any levels to be honest. I simply want what was promised. Doesn't really seem that hard to understand does it? The repeal vote in 2007 wasn't led by the northern towns. Instead, they STRONGLY supported the tax in 2007. But, go ahead and be smug about the chances of a repeal. I bought a similar argument in Nov. and look what we're stuck with now in DC.

[jednc]

1 hour ago, southslider said:

 

North Towns comprise a minority of all registered voters in Mecklenburg.  Only a simple majority county-wide is needed to keep the tax.  The repeal vote in 2007 failed by a huge margin.

 

 

Mr. McCrory thought the same thing. I don't think most people in Charlotte have any idea how much pent up anger there is over transit here in the north. The northern towns feel very much like they were hung out to dry by Charlotte when it decided not to vote to cancel the toll road contract. They punished McCrory pretty heavily at the polls for the same blind eye to their petitions for help. Don't think that some savvy campaigners won't use that logic to say that the northern towns were also hung out to dry when Charlotte decided to prioritize the BLE over the Red Line and there is no solution to the Red Line in sight as of 2017. I voted for the transit tax and I voted to keep it in 2007, and I'm not saying that I'd vote for a repeal. I am saying for the first time ever I'd consider it because, for me, I haven't been given what I was promised. There's really nothing more to it than that. I don't work in Charlotte, so I don't need bus service to be maintained by CATS at all. I would ride the train occasionally and I voted for a TRAIN which was what was promised. There are many who simply won't care about a train or bus and will just vote to save on their taxes.

I wouldn't be so smug about making projections if I were anyone on the pro side of this argument. I fell for a similar argument in Nov. and look what we've got in DC now!

[cjd5050]

14 hours ago, emansius said:

"The city estimates that a family with the area's median income - just under $60,000 - pays about $40 a year for the half-cent sales tax for mass transit. Should that tax be repealed, the city predicts four possible scenarios. Two are unlikely. One would involve cutting bus service and not running the light-rail line. That isn't likely because CATS would have to repay the state and federal government $306 million used to build the south corridor rail line. Another unlikely scenario would replace the sales tax with a steep property tax to build rapid transit corridors.

Here are the two most likely scenarios:

Stop all future rail construction. Operate the south corridor light-rail line, though service would be reduced. Cut bus service, including dropping Sunday service, cutting 41 of 76 routes, and increasing fares. This would spur a property tax hike that would add roughly $58 a year on a house with a taxable value of $159,900.

Stop all future rail construction but fully operate the south corridor light-rail line. Keep the bus system as it is today with no expansion plans. This would cost $171 a year in new property taxes for that same house. CATS could also choose a level of service somewhere in between. The city could also raise property taxes and make budget cuts, though officials have said there is little room in the budget."

Honest question.  Why isn't cutting just bus services an option?  Does the clawback on state and federal funding only happen if they stop running the light rail or would that clawback be triggered if they cut bus service?  If not, why aren't draconian cuts to just bus service presented as an option?

As for your "Amazing how quickly people forget" comment....No need for that.  What you reference is 10 years old and jednc has some valid points.

Residents up north must be feeling like an abused dog when it comes to traffic.  Regardless of the reasons.... There is no Red Line or a line in sight and you have the very controversial toll lanes.  

You also only need to take an entry level political science class to know that most of the time people don't vote and those that do vote..vote off emotion rather than insight and often vote against their self interest out of ignorance.   Anything is possible.  

Edited February 12, 2017 by cjd5050

[staffer]

To put the question on the ballot requires signatures equal to 15% of total vote cast for Governor in 2016.  That's 70,442 signatures of registered voters. (the 2007 repeal was triggered by petition signed by 15% of votes cast in 2004 -- 47,874 was the signature threshold then)

[cltbwimob]

11 minutes ago, staffer said:

To put the question on the ballot requires signatures equal to 15% of total vote cast for Governor in 2016.  That's 70,442 signatures of registered voters. (the 2007 repeal was triggered by petition signed by 15% of votes cast in 2004 -- 47,874 was the signature threshold then)

BOE data shows less than 69,000 total voters in Cornelius, Davidson, and Huntersville which indicates that even if every voter in the three Northern towns petitioned to put the issue to referendum, there would not be enough signatures.

[jednc]

2 hours ago, cltbwimob said:

BOE data shows less than 69,000 total voters in Cornelius, Davidson, and Huntersville which indicates that even if every voter in the three Northern towns petitioned to put the issue to referendum, there would not be enough signatures.

But, there are those in Charlotte who would surely sign as well. There's always a group who want taxes to be lowered no matter what else it might mean.

[kermit]

3 hours ago, jednc said:

But, there are those in Charlotte who would surely sign as well. There's always a group who want taxes to be lowered no matter what else it might mean.

The last transit tax repeal referendum was enabled by professional signiture collectors paid for by the John Locke Foundation (Art Pope's "so called" think tank). They just barely got the signitures they needed (by using the "don't you want your taxes lowered" come on). Despite an incredibly dishonest campaign by the repealers more than 70% of voters wanted to keep the tax, (and CATS was vewed very negatively at the time due to budget overruns on the blue line).  That election result was so much of an asswhupping I can't picture any big money coming into the county to pay to gather the signatures this time around. Combine that with the BLE opening (under budget and on schedule this time) and I suspect the second transit tax repeal vote will turn out much like the first.

Having said that I do have some sympathy for N Meck residents. Traffic is only going to get worse and they need some alternatives sooner than later, pulling the plug on the one funding source the county has access to just moves us further away from everyone's shared goal of improved mobility. Perhaps the CATS busses in the toll lanes will surprise us with their efficiency? 

 

Edited February 12, 2017 by kermit

[emansius]

6 hours ago, cjd5050 said:

Honest question.  Why isn't cutting just bus services an option?  Does the clawback on state and federal funding only happen if they stop running the light rail or would that clawback be triggered if they cut bus service?  If not, why aren't draconian cuts to just bus service presented as an option?

As for your "Amazing how quickly people forget" comment....No need for that.  What you reference is 10 years old and jednc has some valid points.

Residents up north must be feeling like an abused dog when it comes to traffic.  Regardless of the reasons.... There is no Red Line or a line in sight and you have the very controversial toll lanes.  

You also only need to take an entry level political science class to know that most of the time people don't vote and those that do vote..vote off emotion rather than insight and often vote against their self interest out of ignorance.   Anything is possible.  

Apologies if the comment came off as directed at any one person; it definitely was not meant to be. I only wanted to emphasize the dramatic irony provided by 10 years of historical perspective. 

As far as I understand it, the clawback only goes into effect if CATS eliminates light rail service altogether. Draconian cuts to bus service wouldn't trigger that, but would render the bus system effectively useless and place added strain on congestion without income from a different funding mechanism. For example, CATS' operating income for FY2015 was $149.3M, with $59M coming from the portion of the sales tax allocated to operations. Elimination of the tax would thus reduce operating income by almost 40%, and reduce bus service by some figure more than 40% to offset the (assumed) continued level of rail operation. In 2015 there were 56 local and express bus routes; that figure would likely drop below 30 in order to keep bus ridership at the 20 person-per-hour threshold mandated by the state. Additionally, bus ridership from the same year was 20.6M, so draconian cuts to bus service would place at least 8.24M more trips on area roadways. So even for people who don't ride the bus, there would still be a a negative effect felt universally across all strata of the population. 

People definitely vote based on emotion, as you said, but that doesn't make the dissemination of facts and logical argumentation useless. The "Stop The Train" group that placed the repeal on the ballot in 2007 ended up with fewer votes than they had petition signatures (38,179 on election day vs. the 48,669 they collected door-to-door), in no small part due to the flurry of numbers-oriented media coverage and the $700,000 ad campaign against the repeal. There was certainly some value in that effort in directing voters away from the anti-government, emotional argument presented by Stop The Train and The John Locke Foundation.

[cjd5050]

11 minutes ago, emansius said:

Apologies if the comment came off as directed at any one person; it definitely was not meant to be. I only wanted to emphasize the dramatic irony provided by 10 years of historical perspective. 

As far as I understand it, the clawback only goes into effect if CATS eliminates light rail service altogether. Draconian cuts to bus service wouldn't trigger that, but would render the bus system effectively useless and place added strain on congestion without income from a different funding mechanism. For example, CATS' operating income for FY2015 was $149.3M, with $59M coming from the portion of the sales tax allocated to operations. Elimination of the tax would thus reduce operating income by almost 40%, and reduce bus service by some figure more than 40% to offset the (assumed) continued level of rail operation. In 2015 there were 56 local and express bus routes; that figure would likely drop below 30 in order to keep bus ridership at the 20 person-per-hour threshold mandated by the state. Additionally, bus ridership from the same year was 20.6M, so draconian cuts to bus service would place at least 8.24M more trips on area roadways. So even for people who don't ride the bus, there would still be a a negative effect felt universally across all strata of the population. 

People definitely vote based on emotion, as you said, but that doesn't make the dissemination of facts and logical argumentation useless. The "Stop The Train" group that placed the repeal on the ballot in 2007 ended up with fewer votes than they had petition signatures (38,179 on election day vs. the 48,669 they collected door-to-door), in no small part due to the flurry of numbers-oriented media coverage and the $700,000 ad campaign against the repeal. There was certainly some value in that effort in directing voters away from the anti-government, emotional argument presented by Stop The Train and The John Locke Foundation.

Thanks for the reply.  

I agree that cuts to the bus system would be horrible for many but still does not get around what jednc said.  N. Meck residents were promised a light rail line.  Instead of getting that they are given no line and toll roads that where the rates are managed by a private company.  A pretty raw deal.   The Red Line was 'killed' in 2014 and the tolls were locked in in 2016.  Because of this, I am having trouble seeing how results from 2007 really have much impact on what would happen going forward.  

Add to this the potential difficulties with CMS as it relates to both the North and South Meck communities...I don't think it would take that much for an 'us vs. them' campaign to gain some steam.  How many of the bus lines you mentioned are focused in the central part of the county?  It may require more car trips but by volume it's not going to be that many car trips from N. Meck.  It's going to be city residents mostly.  No?  

Have to admit...it really feels like a bait and switch if the tax was sold for light rail but the reason given to keep it is bus service.  Not a good situation at all.

 

[kermit]

Re cutting bus service:

two points,

first, any federal funds for transit come with requir ments to maintain a minimum level of service. Failure to maintain that level of servoce requires transit agencies to refund the federal dollars. CATS recieves federal dollars for new buses, the new bus garage and fare machines (I believe)

second, cutting bus routes is generally considered to disproportionately impact minority populations. Cutting (or reducing) bus service has led to federal civil rights lawsuits in Los Angeles and, more recently, Boston.  https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2016/03/04/mbta-failed-consider-impact-cutting-late-service-minorities-and-low-income-residents-says-federal-agency/psMKdn0RCwO8mi6ajAMr6N/story.html

[SgtCampsalot]

Nothing would anchor Charlotte even more to the last spot in the "Economic Mobility" ranking than a decrease in bus service.

[cjd5050]

12 hours ago, SgtCampsalot said:

Nothing would anchor Charlotte even more to the last spot in the "Economic Mobility" ranking than a decrease in bus service.

I agree.  

Where I hope this goes is instead of sides digging in and going against each other, the idea of finding a way to make the Red Line happen.  

[cltbwimob]

Unfortunately I suspect the man behind this is the opportunistic snake known as Jim Puckett.  He floated this repeal nonsense back in early 2016 to try to get Charlotte to vote against the toll project.  He never wanted the Red Line in the first place, so he was probably thrilled when Norfolk Southern and Iredell County killed it.  But now he's appealing to the voter's sense of indignation that it will not get built (at least for a while) to argue for a full scale repeal of the transit tax.  Disingenuous politicians at their finest.

[jednc]

On 2/13/2017 at 7:35 AM, cjd5050 said:

I agree.  

Where I hope this goes is instead of sides digging in and going against each other, the idea of finding a way to make the Red Line happen.  

 

THIS!

[JRNYP2C]

Not sure how to interpret this.  Same old news or quite the jolt to the system.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article133469379.html

[jednc]

5 hours ago, JRNYP2C said:

Not sure how to interpret this.  Same old news or quite the jolt to the system.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article133469379.html

I think it sounds great as long as they prioritize LKN. Selfish I guess but I've been waiting 20 years for some sort of rail to North Meck.

[CLT704]

We need a version of Denver's FasTracks. 6 rail lines at $6.5billion, but PPPs cover some costs that the $6.5b does not. 

If we do create "Charlotte X-Plan" then we would become a model for the nation, and have our crown shine even brighter.

[kermit]

It I certainly applaud the ambition. We need to not let our growth get any further ahead of transit.

Having said that, the Observer article suggests this process has not been well thought out.

1) I am a loss to see a plausible new ROW for LRT to Davidson that actualliy serves population centers.

2) LRT seems like the wrong technology for the North line given its length (unlike the Blue Line people are going to mostly ride the North Line end to end). 

3) cost if LRT for North line. Perhaps Lewis is not being ambitious enough? Rather than LRT to the north it would be cheaper to build a non-electric S-bhan style commuter line which runs through Gateway to Mooresville and Rock Hill on the gold plated double track railroad that NS will demand for CATS use

4) LRT for the Noeth line makes extending service (Staesville, Gastonia, Salisbury, Columbia) impossible

5) The talk of trump stimulus (assuming such a thing actually happens) is a waste of time given engineering timelines. 

6) there is nothing here that would broaden the local base of funding (eg serving more counties)

shrug, its too early in the process for these technical details. Lets just get an expandable transit system built ASAP!

Edited February 18, 2017 by kermit

[cjd5050]

Love the audacity of the plan.  Huge fan of the shared benefit / shared burden approach.  I really hope this helps with collation building to fund it.

Speaking of funding, how creative can CATS get in trying to raise revenue?  For example, could CATS impose a $5 fee for just the airport station to anywhere on the network for non-residents?  Would need to work out the logistics of how residents would avoid paying the fee but there are similar charges on hotel rooms so why can't there be one for 'tourist' transportation?  

Uber at the low end would cost $11-$15 to get from CLT to Uptown.  CATS currently charges $2.20 for a regular one way fare.  Is it a reach to think that people flying into CLT that needed to mostly migrate to Uptown would look at $7.20 on a light rail to uptown as reasonable option than $11 at the lowest for door to door?  

Are there any other ways to get creative with the funding?  

 

 

 

[kermit]

^ if you by have turnstiles at the airport station you can charge people boarding whatever (higher) fare you choose and pass holders can be made exempt. This is how they do it at O'Hair and (I believe) Atlanta Hartsfield.

[cjd5050]

2 minutes ago, kermit said:

^ if you by have turnstiles at the airport station you can charge people boarding whatever (higher) fare you choose and pass holders can be made exempt. This is how they do it at O'Hair and (I believe) Atlanta Hartsfield.

Oh that's good to read.  I would love to see some sort of higher but reasonable fare for people coming from CLT to parts of Charlotte using mass transit.  Looks like BART does this as well from SFO.  Never noticed until I looked it up.  ~$10 from SFO to Powell is a hell of a deal IMHO outside of feeling like you want to burn your clothing after sitting on those seats.  

[Nick2]

This sounds like great news to me. Maybe we can get an actual timetable for start and moving dirt on these projects.