CATS Long Term Transit Plan - Silver, Red Lines

[kermit]

1 hour ago, jtmonk said:

Thanks for the update Kermit.  Just to make sure I understand this correctly, the Blue Line Extension is now scheduled open November 3rd, 2017 right?  The news last week of a possible March 2018 opening is what could happen in a worst case scenario correct?   

Short answer is that it is not clear. But it does appear to me that CATS gave the public a worst case date and hopes to 'surprise' us with an earlier opening.

Longer answer: CATS told the public that the BLE would be "open by March" -- I believe this is a worst case scenario.  However CATS told the FTA (who paid for 50% of the BLE) that the line is currently on track to open on November 3rd. (which the quarterly report indicates is likely _if_ everything goes smoothly). Keep in mind that there are some other possibilities:  a) CATS is BSing the FTA (I doubt it and I don't think they have a reason to yet), b) the Quarterly report was compiled before the delay announcement and thus it does not contain the most recent information (but its dated March 9th) or c) I overlooked something vital in the report (its about 170 pages long so this is not unlikely).

 

Edited March 7, 2017 by kermit

[ChessieCat]

21 hours ago, kermit said:

CATS Quarterly FTA Agenda time again. Agenda is for the March 9^th meeting. This was a quick read so I may have misinterpreted or overlooked some critical material.

http://charlottenc.gov/cats/about/boards/FTA%20Quarterly/FTA-Quarterly-Agenda-170309.pdf#search=FTA%20quarterly

The document does not have much discussion of the delays in opening but the revenue service date is consistently  listed as 11/3/17 throughout the document.

• ·       Gold Line ridership down 8.5% in January -- no surprise given the truly crappy reliability

•         $5 million more for Gateway Station has fallen from the sky (money from the FRA) pdf 6

•        Schedule Status “The Revenue Service Date went from October 6, 2017 to November 3, 2017 during the BL 98 Schedule Update. The primary cause of delay is contained within the Track and Systems schedule.” (pdf 25). Problems at the the U City parking deck (sounds like somebody left some important conduits off the plans before concrete was poured) get the most discussion in the explanation of the delay. There was some additional discussion of NS track relocation issues on pdf 25-26 but nothing was clear about delay extent.

• ·       Revenue service date is also listed as 11/3/17 on pdf p26. This is consistent with a delay in the Track and Systems contract of three months to 6/4/17 (pdf p 71)

•  I didn’t see anything worthy of note in the Phase II Gold Line report

•         Gateway Station: 65% engineering on track plans should be complete this month
• ·       The FRA funding mentioned on pdf 6 (the new $5 million) was not mentioned in the Gateway station section of the document???
• ·       Nothing of note in Silver Line discussion
• ·       North / West / Center City corridor studies: “the goal of this effort is to identify potential transit needs for the 50-100 year future and be able to coordinate with future center city development."
• ·       “The study is expected to have a duration of appx 18 months, beginning July 2017 and ending in December 2018.” (148)

I hope the money falling "from the sky" is not the DOT taking from Peter to pay Paul.  The fact that they delayed $637 Million in funding for Caltrain electrification in the Bay Area is worrisome, considering Silicon Valley sends enough net tax dollars to the federal government to more than pay for that amount.  All in the name of stopping HSR-- even more worrisome.

On the brighter side, it'll be a big PR plus if the BLE opens ahead of schedule.  What comes after that is anyone's guess.

Edited March 7, 2017 by ChessieCat

[kermit]

On 2/1/2017 at 11:16 AM, kermit said:

There is some interesting discussion at railroad.net on the impact of the decline in coal on various rail networks. One poster found a map from CSX showing what lines they plan to downgrade to 'local network' status (which is translated in the post as reduced maintenance, no PTC,  25 mph speed-limits and local freight only). The entire Charlotte subdivison is in the local category.  The east-west main line through Monroe remains as part of the primary network.

If all this comes to pass it may have some implications for Charlotte transit:

• the CSX-NS grade crossing becomes less of an obstacle for the operation of Gateway station and the (potential) Red line due to reduced traffic across the diamond. (Perhaps NCDOT lucked out with the trenching getting fubard?)
• the CSX intermodal terminal at Pincoa may get relocated to the Monroe area (due to faster and higher capacity service being available there)
• CSX may be very willing to listen to offers from CATS and NCDOT to allow commuter trains to use the CLT to Monroe tracks in return for upgrade (PTC) and maintenance $$$. (This is not intended to suggest the Silver line could use these tracks since they would continue to host some freight). Such a line seems redundant alongside the Silver but it could bring Union county into the transit tax umbrella.

http://railroad.net/forums/viewtopic.php?f=46&t=161835#p1419140 

In addition and entirely separate to the above, CSX is currently undergoing a CEO transition. The most likely new guy (Hunter Harrison) is well know as a cost-cutter and proponent of 'precision railroading.' This translates to shedding lots of mediocre assets, tight scheduling of freight and focusing traffic onto a core network. If Harrison gets the job I would not be surprised to see the entire Charlotte subdivision sold to a shortline operator -- also something that could be a positive for Charlotte transit.

So CSX now has a new CEO and it is indeed Hunter Harrison the 'precision railroader'. Harrison is 71 and his contract is heavily skewed towards stock incentives so he will move quickly to implement the changes he was 'hired' to make.

Harrison has been on the job for less than a week but speculation has already begun on what assets Harrison will purge out of the CSX corporate shell http://cs.trains.com/trn/b/fred-frailey/archive/2017/03/09/what-hunter-will-do-at-csx.aspx

There has not yet been any specific mention of the Charlotte subdivision (its a pretty minor line in the context of the railroad) but it is a near certainty that the line will become a less significant part of the network and CSX is unlikely to spend another dime to maintain or expand it. If CSX keeps the line we can expect slower and longer trains clogging up crossings (e.g. Central Ave, Pecan and Trade St in Matthews).  I would estimate that its 50-50 odds that CSX will sell the line to a shortline operator within the next two years. Because of this, the city and CATS need to have their act together on what it would like to do with

a) the line from uptown to Monroe for commuter rail

b) the grade crossing on Central (which is currently a GoldLine roadblock)

c) the former P&N line from I-85 to Mount Holly (the P&N bridge over the Catawba is the prize asset)

d) the PINCOA intermodal yard (shortlines don't generally operate intermodal for logistical reasons)

If CATS knows what it does (and does not) want to do with this infrastructure then it can be sensibly involved in the sale negotiations and create some good opportunities for transit expansion. If CATS is not involved in the sale it is a virtual certainty the line will deteriorate thus driving up the cost of any future transit use of the line. 

This is all going to happen _fast_ and if CATS isn't ready to move quickly Charlotte is going to loose a big opportunity for transit.

Edited March 10, 2017 by kermit

[southslider]

^if only CSX owned the O-Line, but alas, they do not.

 

[kermit]

So, Columbus has completed a trial and is now in the process of offering every one of its downtown workers with a free transit pass as a means of reducing parking pressure.

this really seems like a no brainier for Charlotte and, I would bet, that uptowns big employers would be willing to chip in on the cost since it would certainly be cheaper than providing parking to everyone. Doubling our transit modeshare for uptown trips would be a huge lever for the big-bang transit plan discussion. 

http://usa.streetsblog.org/2017/03/13/columbus-may-offer-free-transit-passes-to-all-downtown-workers/

Edited March 14, 2017 by kermit

[tozmervo]

I wonder what percentage of downtown Columbus are state employees, since it's the capital. The state may have just done the math and figured out that parking decks are too dang expensive

[lit]

4 minutes ago, kermit said:

So, Columbus has completed a trial and is now in the process of providing every one of its downtown workers with a free transit pass as a means of redicing parking pressure. (I believe that workers are offered a free pass and they can have it for free if they stop using a parking space -- I don't believe there is a cost if the pass goes unused).

this really seems like a no brainer for Charlotte and, I would bet, that uptowns big employeers would be willing to chip in on the cost since it would certainly be cheaper than providing parking to everyone. Doubling our transit modeshare for uptown trips would be a huge lever for the big-bang transit plan. 

http://usa.streetsblog.org/2017/03/13/columbus-may-offer-free-transit-passes-to-all-downtown-workers/

This would never happen in Charlotte. The Parking Companies own the local government and that's why we need more roads with express lanes to funnel cars from other counties into uptown, not mass transit. 

 

I know now it sounds crazy... but does it?

[swh1972]

25 minutes ago, lit said:

This would never happen in Charlotte. The Parking Companies own the local government and that's why we need more roads with express lanes to funnel cars from other counties into uptown, not mass transit. 

 

I know now it sounds crazy... but does it?

And in some cases, the Parking Companies were the Local Government... 

[elrodvt]

44 minutes ago, kermit said:

So, Columbus has completed a trial and is now in the process of providing every one of its downtown workers with a free transit pass as a means of redicing parking pressure. (I believe that workers are offered a free pass and they can have it for free if they stop using a parking space -- I don't believe there is a cost if the pass goes unused).

this really seems like a no brainer for Charlotte and, I would bet, that uptowns big employeers would be willing to chip in on the cost since it would certainly be cheaper than providing parking to everyone. Doubling our transit modeshare for uptown trips would be a huge lever for the big-bang transit plan. 

http://usa.streetsblog.org/2017/03/13/columbus-may-offer-free-transit-passes-to-all-downtown-workers/

 

10 minutes ago, swh1972 said:

And in some cases, the Parking Companies were the Local Government... 

I was going to say that. Are you "tapping" my microwave?

[kermit]

Surely the parking cabal has less power than BAC, Wells and Duke. It really does not seem like a heavy lift to fund "free" transit passes for uptown workers by fractionally increasing the uptown special use district tax -- especially if landowners who participate in the program are exempted from all parking minimums (or does UMUD already do that?)

Edited March 14, 2017 by kermit

[uptownliving]

In President Trump's budget he cuts funding for New Starts and TIGER. For us that means there would be zero federal funds for all future rail lines. Add that to a current 10% cap on the State level and that would mean that our Local share would have to cover 90% of all future rail lines. The local share funded by the 1/2 Cent Sales Tax currently covers 25% of the cost. This would be devastating for transit not just here but all across the country. We have a big hill to climb to ensure transit funding for future projects...or a bleak future with no additional transit lines.

http://usa.streetsblog.org/2017/03/16/trumps-budget-takes-an-axe-to-transit/

[CLT2014]

43 minutes ago, uptownliving said:

In President Trump's budget he cuts funding for New Starts and TIGER. For us that means there would be zero federal funds for all future rail lines. Add that to a current 10% cap on the State level and that would mean that our Local share would have to cover 90% of all future rail lines. The local share funded by the 1/2 Cent Sales Tax currently covers 25% of the cost. This would be devastating for transit not just here but all across the country. We have a big hill to climb to ensure transit funding for future projects...or a bleak future with no additional transit lines.

http://usa.streetsblog.org/2017/03/16/trumps-budget-takes-an-axe-to-transit/

If that budget proposal is actually passed, I would guess no additional transit lines start during the Trump administration / GOP rule of Congress and we have to wait for a political shift. I don't think the county will vote for a sales tax big enough to cover 90% of the cost. 

[cltbwimob]

Several Republican senators are suggesting the budget proposal as written is DOA.  Now whether or not transit is included in the budget that does pass remains to be seen.

[Matthew.Brendan]

I guess transit does not count towards "rebuilding infrastructure" 

[southslider]

Fortunately, BLE and Gold Line 2 are already fully funded. Plus, operations are largely funded by local sales taxes, which have been growing.

But as for Red Line and Silver Line, those definitely now won't break ground until after 2020, due to funding on all levels-- local, state, and federal.

 

[jednc]

16 minutes ago, southslider said:

Fortunately, BLE and Gold Line 2 are already fully funded. Plus, operations are largely funded by local sales taxes, which have been growing.

But as for Red Line and Silver Line, those definitely now won't break ground until after 2020, due to funding on all levels-- local, state, and federal.

 

 

I doubt they would have broken ground before 2020 even if there was a pot of gold sitting inside CATS offices (a little St. Patrick's Day reference in there for the kids).

[southslider]

^True, but North Meck should somewhat redirect their anger now.

[kermit]

So the Observer appears to have FOIA a bunch of John Lewis' emails as part of the BLE delay story. Within those they discovered that Lewis is not a fan of extending the 11 remaining short platforms on the South line for three-car service. The original plan (as of the December quarterly report) was to continue engineering the remaining construction (to the degree it was necessary for a grant application) and applying for a Core Capacity Expansion grant from the FTA within a year or two. Based on the language in the quarterly reports it appeared that CATS was confident of getting the grant.  However in January Lewis notified the FTA that engineering would continue  ("as funds allow") but there would be no grant application in the near future. Lewis mentioned 2025 as the new target date for completing the platform expansion.

I don't really have a problem with the specifics of the decision (Lewis indicated that current demand does not justify the expenditure) and I have always believed that increased frequency is a much better (and cheaper) solution than bigger (but less frequent) trains. If Lewis can get the necessary engineering done without much delay then the expansion project can sit on a shelf as shovel-ready waiting for the inevitable stimulus that will come after donald's scorched-earth urban transport policy. Despite that, I am irritated that this decision was so far removed from public view and we had to find out from an Observer investigation. This, in combination with the surprise BLE delay announcement, makes me quite suspicious of Lewis. Its going to be very difficult for a CATS leader to advocate for a substantial tax increase when he gives the impression that he is hiding things.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article139256098.html

[kermit]

Wow, check out #7

 

[caterpillar2]

Amazing that Charlotte spend more that cities with underground rail. 

[grodney]

On ‎3‎/‎14‎/‎2017 at 2:28 PM, kermit said:

So, Columbus has completed a trial and is now in the process of offering every one of its downtown workers with a free transit pass as a means of reducing parking pressure.

 

Semi-related....I think I've mentioned before that Duke offers free passes to employees, and discounted passes to contractors.  No idea if the banks do.  Also wonder how many Duke employees actually use it. 

[kermit]

It looks like Hunterville may obstruct (not contribute to) a CATS study of LRT for the north line (rather than commuter rail). The mayor apparently believes that any mode other than heavy rail on the existing tracks is not feasible and will cause too much disruption in 'downtown'

Its still very early in the process but the big bang plan really appears to be snakebit.

http://www.twcnews.com/nc/charlotte/top-videos/2017/03/19/huntersville-commissioners-will-vote-on-resolution-about-cats--upcoming-transportation-budget.html

The late arriving Observer version of the story is better written: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/article139802053.html

 

Edited March 21, 2017 by kermit

[Windsurfer]

4 hours ago, kermit said:

It looks like Hunterville may obstruct (not contribute to) a CATS study of LRT for the north line (rather than commuter rail). The mayor aparently believes that any mode other than heavy rail on the existing tracks is not feasible and will cause too much disruption in 'downtown'

Its still very early in the process but the big bang plan really appears to be snakebit.

http://www.twcnews.com/nc/charlotte/top-videos/2017/03/19/huntersville-commissioners-will-vote-on-resolution-about-cats--upcoming-transportation-budget.html

Forgive my ignorance, but doesn't he have a point in the sense that, unless Norfolk in 'on board', any study is moot?

[kermit]

8 minutes ago, Windsurfer said:

Forgive my ignorance, but doesn't he have a point in the sense that, unless Norfolk in 'on board', any study is moot?

Nah, they are expressing their discomfort with investigating rail solutions that would not use the existing corridor (e.g light rail along US21)

[kermit]

Per staffer's post in the NC passenger rail thread NCDOT now says that a Harrisburg station is now 'on the to do list' for NCDOT. No location or projected open date was given.

The 4th Piedmont frequency should start rolling early next year and the 5th should begin in 2019 (so by then we will have six daily trains to Raleigh and back)

When money falls from the sky I really think that CATS should extend the BLE to 49 (not 29) to a large park and ride and commuter rail station (aka Harrisburg station) at 485. This would allow for any future commuter rail to Concord and Salisbury to connect to the BLE and deliver commuters to the U City and NoDa areas.

Shrug. 

Edited March 21, 2017 by kermit