Economic Development

[AmIReal]

Every year CompTIA, the largest association representing technology, releases their Cyberstates report. Here are some of the Orlando MSA highlights from this year.

Net tech employment 85,000

Net tech employment jobs added last year 2,300

Tech gross regional product (GRP) in billions $11.1

Tech GRP as % of total MSA GRP aka economic impact 9.6%

Average Tech industry wages $89,740

Those are all very good numbers for Orlando and trending positive.

The entire report is full of goodies… http://www.cyberstates.org/

[HankStrong]

1 hour ago, AmIReal said:

Average Tech industry wages $8,974

Those are all horrible numbers for Orlando and trending so negative we should all just give up and die.

I've fixed this for what just HAS to be true.

[I am Reality]

54 minutes ago, HankStrong said:

I've fixed this for what just HAS to be true.

Are we back to saying wages in Orlando are fantastic and that there is no problem? 

I get confused.  When we last spoke about wages, people seemed to agree wages need to get better. 

As for the CompTIA survey, there are plenty of other surveys that have different findings.

But let's talk about the CompTIA findings.  It says 6.6% of the Orlando MSA workforce is employed in tech.  Orlando ranks #27 in total tech jobs (although it's the 23rd largest MSA).  

In other words - whether looking at % or raw numbers - Orlando underperforms.  

On a percent basis, cities like Austin, Detroit, Denver, Raleigh and Boston have near or above DOUBLE the percentage of tech workers that Orlando has.  

Surely Hank saw that.

I admit Orlando overperforms in tech job growth at #19 nationwide, but the growth rate will not significantly push it up the list anytime soon.

Again, this is one of many surveys.

Edited May 8, 2018 by I am Reality

[prahaboheme]

48 minutes ago, I am Reality said:

I admit Orlando overperforms in tech job growth at #19 nationwide, but the growth rate will not significantly push it up the list anytime soon.

Again, this is one of many surveys.

Actually, it will.  According to the survey, the only other metro in FL significantly adding tech jobs is Miami, and growth only slightly outpaces Orlando in the 18th position.

Florida, in general, is adding tech jobs at about the same rate as Texas and Michigan, and all are well behind CA (which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone).

This is positive news for a growing sector of the Orlando economy.

[AmIReal]

Hank, thanks for the fix.

Yes, this is only one study (not a survey). It is the longest running of its type and by far the most widely accepted. They don't simply take a "survey", they instead use easy to corroborate data from BLS and the Census Bureau to produce long term, comparative data and analysis. However, I would appreciate it if you can post one with better information.

I'm not sure I would conclude Denver at 11% or Detroit at 11.8% as being "near double", but ok if that is your conclusion. On the other hand, % of workforce is just one of the metrics. Most people would say Atlanta, Chicago, Charlotte, Dallas and New York are better tech cities than Detroit, yet Detroit leads them in % workforce.

I don't think our structural issues will ever allow us to get over 8% in workforce. Regardless, I think watching the changes in the economic impact number is more useful.

 

I need to point out... not every MSA is included in the analysis. CompUSA selected MSAs with high baseline numbers to include, but not everyone is included. The survey has been conducted for nearly 20 years, but I only recall seeing MSAs beginning in 2012.

[spenser1058]

In an article for the latest earnings report for Electronic Arts in the Sentinel, it notes EA employs about 700 in their Maitland office.

http://bit.ly/2I1LcQa

 

[I am Reality]

4 hours ago, AmIReal said:

Hank, thanks for the fix.

Yes, this is only one study (not a survey). It is the longest running of its type and by far the most widely accepted. They don't simply take a "survey", they instead use easy to corroborate data from BLS and the Census Bureau to produce long term, comparative data and analysis. However, I would appreciate it if you can post one with better information.

I'm not sure I would conclude Denver at 11% or Detroit at 11.8% as being "near double", but ok if that is your conclusion. On the other hand, % of workforce is just one of the metrics. Most people would say Atlanta, Chicago, Charlotte, Dallas and New York are better tech cities than Detroit, yet Detroit leads them in % workforce.

I don't think our structural issues will ever allow us to get over 8% in workforce. Regardless, I think watching the changes in the economic impact number is more useful.

 

I need to point out... not every MSA is included in the analysis. CompUSA selected MSAs with high baseline numbers to include, but not everyone is included. The survey has been conducted for nearly 

This CompTIA study makes no sense. 

The 2017 CompTIA study said there were 52,000 tech workers in the Orlando MSA (see the press release from CompTIA itself).  https://www.comptia.org/about-us/newsroom/press-releases/2017/04/03/florida-technology-industry-added-nearly-9-600-jobs-in-2016

A year later, the 2018 CompTIA study says there are 85,000 tech workers here.

The Orlando MSA did not add 33,000 tech jobs from 2017-2018, especially when the study itself says 12,000 tech workers were added statewide from 2017-2018. 

Something is wrong.  

 

[AmIReal]

The background notes at the beginning explains this is the 1st year they used the "net tech employment" term and associated figures. Also the bar graph indicates a different jobs measure. It is further explained in the methodology. It takes a while to go through this report. It is not intended to be consumed in a sitting.

[spenser1058]

It's important to note that a city can remain vigorous even as once critical areas of the original city become less vital.

A good reminder of that may be found in this article about how financial firms are moving from Wall Street (downtown Manhattan) and midtown for Hudson Yards. It also notes that a lot of the back office functions have been moving away for years.

Atlanta is quite similar. Where once everything was downtown (the state capitol and the convention center still are), AT&T, the arts and the banks left for midtown ages ago (despite Andy Young's pleas not to.) 

Now, some of Atlanta's largest corporate titans are even further afield (Delta and UPS come to mind.)

I suspect we'd agree NYC and Atlanta are still doing well but there's an ongoing meme that Orlando can't be successful unless everything's downtown. It's all the more ironic given that in Orlando's case that was never true.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-manhattan-office-migrations/

From Bloomberg

Edited May 14, 2018 by spenser1058

[I am Reality]

Surprising study about vacant land in U.S. urban cores.  https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2018/05/17/new-report-dallas-skyline-room-grow-us-city

Orlando is near the bottom (meaning we have very little vacant land downtown, compared to other cities). 

Good for future density. 

[AmIReal]

27 minutes ago, I am Reality said:

Surprising study about vacant land in U.S. urban cores.  https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2018/05/17/new-report-dallas-skyline-room-grow-us-city

Orlando is near the bottom (meaning we have very little vacant land downtown, compared to other cities). 

Good for future density. 

I thought that was interesting, also. 

The study had some Orlando participants and "The top choice of Orlando locals that participated in our survey was improved walkability, followed by the desire for infrastructure upgrades and a subway transport system."

More here- https://indrej.com/2018/05/study-what-to-do-with-all-the-vacant-land-in-major-us-cbds/

 

[I am Reality]

51 minutes ago, AmIReal said:

I thought that was interesting, also. 

The study had some Orlando participants and "The top choice of Orlando locals that participated in our survey was improved walkability, followed by the desire for infrastructure upgrades and a subway transport system."

More here- https://indrej.com/2018/05/study-what-to-do-with-all-the-vacant-land-in-major-us-cbds/

 

The discussion about Tampa is super  interesting.

Tampa has the least amount of vacant land of the cities studied, making it the "densest" city.  The study makes the connection to the lack of available downtown land to Tampa's urban-sprawl problem. The study then expressly makes the connection between the lack of vacant land with the lack of downtown development.

Could that be the problem for Orlando?

Is it too "dense"?

That would turn most assumptions on their head. 

[AmIReal]

From the study "Our research showed that major metros in the South, West, and Southwest harbor the most vacant lots in their urban cores. While it is not surprising that these cities have utilized the advantages of spacious geography to expand their boundaries outward, it invites the obvious question: Why sprawl, if there is still plenty of potential to reinvest in the city core? https://www.dmagazine.com/commercial-real-estate/2018/05/dallas-has-more-vacant-land-downtown-than-any-other-major-u-s-city/

Or from the perspective of Orlando and Tampa just the opposite... they state it is simply theory, but it is certainly a different perspective then the age old idea that southerners just won't give up there cars.

The concept of available land was also looked at in a WIRED piece (which I posted previously) related to the Amazon location.

There are plenty of 1 and 2 block pieces to build apartments/ offices etc, but in the Orlando core it is hard to string together big blocks of land. That is why (to me) what is done with CV and the Sentinel property is pretty important.

BTW, if any one is interested in why we keep building more apartments downtown, look at the YOY rate growth (#1 in the nation)  http://www.multifamilyexecutive.com/property-management/rent-trends/yardi-matrix-rent-growth-ticks-up-slightly-in-february_o

"Orlando took the top spot in February with 7.0% YOY growth"

 

Edited May 18, 2018 by AmIReal
wrong city cited

[spenser1058]

Interesting stat in this article about Shaq's Isleworth manse up for sale: Orlando is #8 in the country for owner-occupied homes with at least 5 bedrooms and 15 rooms.

Shaquille O’Neal leaves Orlando again, puts Isleworth mansion up for sale
http://bit.ly/2IvSqIB

From the Sentinel

[WAJAS]

20 hours ago, AmIReal said:

I thought that was interesting, also. 

The study had some Orlando participants and "The top choice of Orlando locals that participated in our survey was improved walkability, followed by the desire for infrastructure upgrades and a subway transport system."

More here- https://indrej.com/2018/05/study-what-to-do-with-all-the-vacant-land-in-major-us-cbds/

 

I love how one of the top things Orlandoans want is a subway system.  It is one of the only things that physically cannot happen (besides a ridonkulous amount of money being invested in it... yearly).  I could see an elevated Monorail, Aerial Cable Transit, or another type of system being developed in the far future though.  The currently dedicated transit lanes for Lymmo could also be used for a future light rail system going through downtown.

[prahaboheme]

1 hour ago, WAJAS98 said:

I love how one of the top things Orlandoans want is a subway system.  It is one of the only things that physically cannot happen (besides a ridonkulous amount of money being invested in it... yearly).  I could see an elevated Monorail, Aerial Cable Transit, or another type of system being developed in the far future though.  The currently dedicated transit lanes for Lymmo could also be used for a future light rail system going through downtown.

Subway is an interchangeable term with heavy rail, like the elevated trains in Miami and Chicago.

[WAJAS]

8 hours ago, prahaboheme said:

Subway is an interchangeable term with heavy rail, like the elevated trains in Miami and Chicago.

Well, those are basically a no go as well, and I for one wouldn't want them here.  They cost a fortune and look ugly from almost any point of view.  They also create a ridiculous noise problem where I can hear them from over two miles away with a whole University in between me and them.  I'd much rather get light rail at street level with gondolas/aerial trams connecting the main line to smaller destinations off of the main path.  For instance, a light rail line from UCF through downtown.  It would follow  Colonial most of the time with an aerial tram or gondola connecting the main line to Baldwin Park over a short span.  Miami is considering them for connecting Metrorail to Coconut Grove or the Design District.

[I am Reality]

The 2018 Fortune 500 list was released today.

The only company in the Orlando MSA is Darden (#396). 

Harris in Brevard is ranked #407.

People here seem especially interested jn Publix (Polk Co).  It is ranked pretty well...at  #88.

The Fortune website has great map showing where the companies are located. 

[jrs2]

On 5/17/2018 at 7:51 PM, AmIReal said:

From the study "Our research showed that major metros in the South, West, and Southwest harbor the most vacant lots in their urban cores. While it is not surprising that these cities have utilized the advantages of spacious geography to expand their boundaries outward, it invites the obvious question: Why sprawl, if there is still plenty of potential to reinvest in the city core? https://www.dmagazine.com/commercial-real-estate/2018/05/dallas-has-more-vacant-land-downtown-than-any-other-major-u-s-city/

Or from the perspective of Orlando and Tampa just the opposite... they state it is simply theory, but it is certainly a different perspective then the age old idea that southerners just won't give up there cars.

The concept of available land was also looked at in a WIRED piece (which I posted previously) related to the Amazon location.

There are plenty of 1 and 2 block pieces to build apartments/ offices etc, but in the Orlando core it is hard to string together big blocks of land. That is why (to me) what is done with CV and the Sentinel property is pretty important.

BTW, if any one is interested in why we keep building more apartments downtown, look at the YOY rate growth (#1 in the nation)  http://www.multifamilyexecutive.com/property-management/rent-trends/yardi-matrix-rent-growth-ticks-up-slightly-in-february_o

"Orlando took the top spot in February with 7.0% YOY growth"

 

The answer to "why sprawl" has several answers:  historically, you have white flight or suburban flight; leave the city core and avoid traffic, problems, poverty, panhandlers, crime, poorer school systems, etc.  It's the same in every city historically.  Nowadays, it is not necessarily so.  Now, it's more expensive to live in the core in many places.

Northerners won't give up their cars either.  That is a fallacy about southerners.  

[I am Reality]

50 minutes ago, jrs2 said:

The answer to "why sprawl" has several answers:  historically, you have white flight or suburban flight; leave the city core and avoid traffic, problems, poverty, panhandlers, crime, poorer school systems, etc.  It's the same in every city historically.  Nowadays, it is not necessarily so.  Now, it's more expensive to live in the core in many places.

Northerners won't give up their cars either.  That is a fallacy about southerners.  

Interesting article in today's Miami Herald about the large number of people moving downtown there.  More than 92k live in downtown Miami and the number is increasing.  A linked study has a nice comparison of FL cities (although there is no discussion about downtown populations in those cities).  

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article211743454.html

[aent]

On 5/30/2018 at 6:13 PM, I am Reality said:

Interesting article in today's Miami Herald about the large number of people moving downtown there.  More than 92k live in downtown Miami and the number is increasing.  A linked study has a nice comparison of FL cities (although there is no discussion about downtown populations in those cities).  

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article211743454.html

Make of it what you will, Orlando #2 metro area in the country for high wage job growth (behind Austin): https://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/news/2018/06/04/report-orlando-a-hotbed-for-creating-of-high-wage.html?ana=RSS&s=article_search

Edited June 5, 2018 by aent

[I am Reality]

13 hours ago, aent said:

Make of it what you will, Orlando #2 metro area in the country for high wage job growth (behind Austin): https://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/news/2018/06/04/report-orlando-a-hotbed-for-creating-of-high-wage.html?ana=RSS&s=article_search

This post was made in response to a completely unrelated post I wrote about people moving to downtown Miami. So I assume the post is directed to me in particular.

I have no response.

I do not engage in any back-and-forth anymore.  I also will not discuss anything that can be interpreted as being controversial.

 

[HankStrong]

1. How can I see your posts again?  Are you magic?  Is this a dream?
2. You responded to say you have no response?  And quoted someone (a back-and-forth) to say you aren't going to do any back-and-forth?
3. I could've sworn before I went out of town that someone quoted a post where you said you were quitting this forum?

I'm confused by this post.

Edited June 5, 2018 by HankStrong

[aent]

17 minutes ago, I am Reality said:

This post was made in response to a completely unrelated post I wrote about people moving to downtown Miami. So I assume the post is directed to me in particular.

I have no response.

I do not engage in any back-and-forth anymore.  I also will not discuss anything that can be interpreted as being controversial.

 

I just hit reply on the last post in the thread and forgot to delete the quote, forgivaness, please

 

HankStrong: I did notice he has been simply contributing to the community since he previously posted that and stopped engaging in the crazy comments, I definitely didn't want to bring that back, I don't think any of us should, we should welcome diverse views as long as they aren't on the line of trolling

Edited June 5, 2018 by aent

[jgardnerucf]

Oh, thank heaven he's back!