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Urban Crime Conversation


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A couple of months ago several of us contributed to a conversation on the increase of urban crime. It was in another thread and , if memory serves, the mods were getting troubled so we ended the conversation.  I came across two articles this week (and included two others) on the subject and I am posting them in the hopes of discussing the topic in a civil manner.

I assert the rising crime rate in US and many international cities is due to progressive policies - decriminalizing low-level crime and banning preventative policing tactics. I believe urban crime is well on the way to the high-water mark of 1990 (in most statistical areas).

The City Journal article discusses the dramatic crime reduction of the 1990s in NYC 

https://www.city-journal.org/html/who-saved-new-york-15804.html?utm_source=City+Journal+Update&utm_campaign=cde0c3b65f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_04_04&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6c08930f2b-cde0c3b65f-109485629

http://abcnews.go.com/International/londons-murder-rate-overtakes-yorks-time-modern-history/story?id=54171310

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/01/us/murder-rates-rising-sharply-in-many-us-cities.html

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/baltimore-city/bs-md-ci-davis-replaced-20180119-story.html

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1 hour ago, nashville_bound said:

A couple of months ago we several of us contributed to a conversation on the increase of urban crime. It was in another thread and , if memory serves, the mods were getting troubled so we ended the conversation.  I came across two articles this week (and included two others) on the subject and I am posting them in the hopes of discussing the topic in a civil manner.

I assert the rising crime rates in US and many international cities is due to progressive policies - decriminalizing low-level crime and banning preventative policing tactics. I believe urban crime is well on the way to the high-water mark of 1990 (in most statistical areas).

The City Journal article discusses the dramatic crime reduction of the 1990s in NYC 

https://www.city-journal.org/html/who-saved-new-york-15804.html?utm_source=City+Journal+Update&utm_campaign=cde0c3b65f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_04_04&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6c08930f2b-cde0c3b65f-109485629

http://abcnews.go.com/International/londons-murder-rate-overtakes-yorks-time-modern-history/story?id=54171310

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/01/us/murder-rates-rising-sharply-in-many-us-cities.html

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/baltimore-city/bs-md-ci-davis-replaced-20180119-story.html

Sadly for your post crime is decreasing nationwide.  I encourage you to find this out. It might change your opinion of lots of other important issues other than just hassling normal citizens.

Cites:

 https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/07/is-violence-in-america-going-up-or-down/491384/

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/01/30/5-facts-about-crime-in-the-u-s/ (check number 3 here!)

 

London had two months where it had literally a couple more murders than New York. In 2017 the murder rate in London was 1.2 per 100,000 vs 3.4 per 100,000 in NYC. 

Cite - http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43628494

 

It is true some cities have seen increases in crime, while others have seen decreases. NYC has strict gun laws, are you proposing that we spread those nationwide? I would agree with you., as would this chart on gun deaths vs gun ownership. 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/02/chart-of-day-the-link-between-gun-ownership-and-gun-deaths/

 

or perhaps this study will be better since I know you will not like the source on that chart.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3828709/

 

As for your last link, yes sometimes people get fired when results do not follow. How very businesslike of that city to hold people accountable like that.

 

 

 

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^^ Not really a need to quote your post (quoting my post) so just know this is a response....maybe not a response because your post was not responsive to the topic. 

Let's try again. The title of the thread is URBAN Crime Conversation...not crime in general. If anything your posts strengthen my assertion...it is the larger urban areas where we find the prevalence of the progressive handcuffing of the police. Further, comparing the crime in the country as a whole, or more on point with this thread -Urban crime - to rates of 25 years ago is relevant, but more relevant are trends showing increasing urban  crime over the last several years.

It seems you thought you found a 'gotcha' moment full of new information. I hope you are able to find facts disputing my assertion as I do not wish there to be an increasing violent crime wave....I live in an urban area with my family. We are all biased in the facts we gather, but I have made an effort to look at this issue in a neutral manner.

Hope you chime back in with relevant points. Thanks

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9 minutes ago, nashville_bound said:

^^ Not really a need to quote your post (quoting my post) so just know this is a response....maybe not a response because your post was not responsive to the topic. 

Let's try again. The title of the thread is URBAN Crime Conversation...not crime in general. If anything your posts strengthen my assertion...it is the larger urban areas where we find the prevalence of the progressive handcuffing of the police. Further, comparing the crime in the country as a whole, or more on point with this thread -Urban crime - to rates of 25 years ago is relevant, but more relevant are trends showing increasing urban  crime over the last several years.

It seems you thought you found a 'gotcha' moment full of new information. I hope you are able to find facts disputing my assertion as I do not wish there to be an increasing violent crime wave....I live in an urban area with my family. We are all biased in the facts we gather, but I have made an effort to look at this issue in a neutral manner.

Hope you chime back in with relevant points. Thanks

It was not meant as a gotcha. I posted stats about America as a whole (80% of Americans live in urban areas). You posted an article about a police chief being fired and two months of London having more murders than NYC for some reason. To me it’s pretty obvious there is city to city variance, and I think some of that variance is due to structural or corruption reasons, and some of it is due to geography and the confluence of the drug trade(in addition to other reasons). 

 

I disagree that stopping people for random violations will decrease violent crime. I do believe that data should be used to focus on high crime areas. I vehemently disagree(and the stats back me up) that crime is on a large uptick.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/14/us/murder-rates-cities-fbi.html

And while the article above seems to exonerate NYC ... this one does just the opposite...

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/cops-seek-sweatsuit-clad-man-shot-bystander-brooklyn-article-1.2242439

Further,  you neglected to read the most relevant article I initially posted from the City Journal. Or maybe you read it and had nothing to say...

https://www.city-journal.org/html/who-saved-new-york-15804.html?utm_source=City+Journal+Update&utm_campaign=cde0c3b65f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_04_04&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6c08930f2b-cde0c3b65f-109485629

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Grilled_Cheese -

Do you have any statistics to support your claim? Do states which have decriminalized pot still have overcrowded prisons? Should we decriminalize all drugs?

I do believe (see City Journal article linked to above) aggressive enforcement of low-level, nuisance crime is a legitimate tool in law enforcement's quiver to prevent major crime. 

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24 minutes ago, nashville_bound said:

Grilled_Cheese -

Do you have any statistics to support your claim? Do states which have decriminalized pot stiff have overcrowded prisons? Should we decriminalize all drugs?

I do believe (see City Journal article linked to above) aggressive enforcement of low-level, nuisance crime is a legitimate tool in law enforcement's quiver to prevent major crime. 

 

People convicted by Colorado for marijuana offenses prior to legalization are still in prison, remarkably.  Can you imagine how infuriating that would be?  In November, the Gov. released 7 of them who had applied for pardons and is apparently planning another 40 or so while looking for a broader solution to the issue.  That said, not many people were getting locked up for simple possession even prior to legalization, so most of the prisoners are in there for sales.  Since prosecutors often pile on drug dealers with any other arguable crimes committed in the process of making those sales (trafficking, criminal conspiracy, selling within 1000 feet of a school, etc.), there are other non-drug related offenses tacked on that makes this pardoning process trickier.

 

Here's some federal info:

Between October 2012 and September 2013, drug offenses accounted for 50.1% of the federal prison population.  27.6 percent of drug offenders were locked up for crimes related to marijuana.

As the number of people convicted of drug offenses has gone up, the federal prison population has increased — almost 790 percent since 1980, when there were only about 25,000 inmates, according to a 2012 Congressional Research Service report.

 

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15 minutes ago, ruraljuror said:

People convicted by Colorado for marijuana offenses prior to legalization are still in prison, remarkably.  Can you imagine how infuriating that would be? 

Well yeah, they knowingly broke the laws of Colorado at the time and have a price to pay. And like you said, these people are mostly dealers and traffickers, which puts them into a level of criminal prosecution than simple users. 

3 minutes ago, grilled_cheese said:

Absolutely, I thought you were a small government guy?

Our current opioid crisis is almost entirely misuse of legally prescribed painkillers. The only reason it isn’t worse is the supply can’t keep up with demand. Belief in a free market and limited government size isn’t the same thing as being a complete social libertarian. 

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44 minutes ago, Pdt2f said:

Well yeah, they knowingly broke the laws of Colorado at the time and have a price to pay. And like you said, these people are mostly dealers and traffickers, which puts them into a level of criminal prosecution than simple users. 

Fair enough.

44 minutes ago, Pdt2f said:

Our current opioid crisis is almost entirely misuse of legally prescribed painkillers. The only reason it isn’t worse is the supply can’t keep up with demand. Belief in a free market and limited government size isn’t the same thing as being a complete social libertarian. 

 

What makes you think think that the opioid supply can't keep up with demand?  The price of heroin has been climbing for years, but not at a rate that would make me think there's a significant supply shortage.  I'm curious what info you're basing your statement on if you're willing to share.

Also, how do you account for the drop in usage/demand (and more importantly drug-related deaths) after Portugal decriminalized all drugs?  That same sort of supply/demand argument was made by opponents of Portugal's decriminalization, and we've got almost 20 years of data now from that experiment proving that wider regulated drug availability does not in fact lead to more users/deaths.  

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1 hour ago, ruraljuror said:

 

People convicted by Colorado for marijuana offenses prior to legalization are still in prison, remarkably.  Can you imagine how infuriating that would be?  In November, the Gov. released 7 of them who had applied for pardons and is apparently planning another 40 or so while looking for a broader solution to the issue.  That said, not many people were getting locked up for simple possession even prior to legalization, so most of the prisoners are in there for sales.  Since prosecutors often pile on drug dealers with any other arguable crimes committed in the process of making those sales (trafficking, criminal conspiracy, selling within 1000 feet of a school, etc.), there are other non-drug related offenses tacked on that makes this pardoning process trickier.

 

Here's some federal info:

Between October 2012 and September 2013, drug offenses accounted for 50.1% of the federal prison population.  27.6 percent of drug offenders were locked up for crimes related to marijuana.

As the number of people convicted of drug offenses has gone up, the federal prison population has increased — almost 790 percent since 1980, when there were only about 25,000 inmates, according to a 2012 Congressional Research Service report.

 

Thanks for the post. I would like to see the 50.1% not just split between marijuana and other drugs, but also what the charges were for the conviction. The information I have read over the years its with you regarding  simple possession vs. sales of the drug. Am I correct in thinking the states decriminalization marijuana will still lock up dealers? Those convicted of past marijuana offenses have a strong case unless they were actually charged with a more serious crime and then pleaded down to simple possession.

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On many matters I am a small government guy, but I am not an anarchist. I see a role in a civil society for limited government oversight. Drugs are a difficult call for me because I have not decided if legalization would be seen as an endorsement in many minds. I can see it both ways. I do believe the states are where the issue should be decided. Of course the feds have a mighty reach. Case in point - my wife routinely have to fire employees who fail random drug tests because her client is the federal government. 

A dogmatic libertarian would have the government legalize it and then step back. They would not endorse any medical help, needle program, rehab on the public dole. 

 

1 hour ago, grilled_cheese said:

Absolutely, I thought you were a small government guy?

 

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4 minutes ago, nashville_bound said:

Thanks for the post. I would like to see the 50.1% not just split between marijuana and other drugs, but also what the charges were for the conviction. The information I have read over the years its with you regarding  simple possession vs. sales of the drug. Am I correct in thinking the states decriminalization marijuana will still lock up dealers? Those convicted of past marijuana offenses have a strong case unless they were actually charged with a more serious crime and then pleaded down to simple possession.

 

Yeah, I haven't seen any decriminalization proposals (in the U.S.) that go beyond decriminalizing simple possession.  Often with those laws, even growing for personal use remains illegal or at least potentially illegal (because one plant may produce more than the legal quantity limit) so they create a large grey area where it's legal to possess but you still have to tap into a criminal network in order to procure.  Decriminalization is good for individual users  but legalization is better for removing the criminal behavior and risk from a production/distribution standpoint.  Nobody opposes legalization more adamantly than cartels and those with current farming or distribution networks that can charge a sweet premium to cover the risk/loss.  Legalization is also much safer for consistency of dose/potency and provides accountability for reckless/negligent behavior in producing and distributing those drugs.  

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4 hours ago, nashville_bound said:

Nb,

 

i am am on my phone for the evening but I did read all your articles. I think if you research the drop in crime in the 90s NYC you will find a bunch of reasons for it. I don’t think stopping people for jaywalking was the main cause. I do struggle to understand the small government guys arguing for more intrusive policing. I also struggle to understand the dismissing of study after study that shows correlations between gun ownership and suicides and homicides. I think we will always disagree about these things.

 

But I greatly appreciate you posting articles and debate as opposed to others(not in this thread) who have resorted to purely personal attacks.

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There are lots of different thoughts in your post.

I posted about Urban crime, not suicides by gun, knife, pills, etc...

I have never believed small-government to mean not enforcing the law. If the populations decides to decriminalize a currently illegal action I would not then advocate police action...I do not see an inconsistency in my position. As explained in the article I posted, it was the enforcement of low-level crime which began the crime wave turn-around in the NYC subway and the city proper. Another reason I support enforcement is, by and large, it is the lower-income populations which are impacted the most by lax enforcement policies. 

I respect your views. I believe in 3-5 years if urban crime continues to increase, the population will again demand more rigid and effective law-enforcement policies. 

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There has been an noticeable uptick in the number of murders in America's largest cities. I don't think that has included all parts of urban areas (the stat 80% of people live in urban places includes places like Franklin, Springfield, and Dickson), but it has affected truly urban areas.  Nashville's crime stats can't be ignored.

Murders by year:

  • 2010 - 60
  • 2011 - 51
  • 2012 - 62
  • 2013 - 43
  • 2014 - 41
  • 2015 - 75
  • 2016 - 84
  • 2017 - 107

Going from 41 murders in 2014 to 107 in 2017 isn't statistical noise. Something happened.  I have a couple of theories about what happened, but it is clear that something has changed in a short amount of time to cause this spike.

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20 hours ago, Hey_Hey said:

There has been an noticeable uptick in the number of murders in America's largest cities. I don't think that has included all parts of urban areas (the stat 80% of people live in urban places includes places like Franklin, Springfield, and Dickson), but it has affected truly urban areas.  Nashville's crime stats can't be ignored.

Murders by year:

  • 2010 - 60
  • 2011 - 51
  • 2012 - 62
  • 2013 - 43
  • 2014 - 41
  • 2015 - 75
  • 2016 - 84
  • 2017 - 107

Going from 41 murders in 2014 to 107 in 2017 isn't statistical noise. Something happened.  I have a couple of theories about what happened, but it is clear that something has changed in a short amount of time to cause this spike.

I heard about the increase in homicide in Davidson County last year, but I didn't know it was that bad. My goodness. 

 

Comparatively, Knox County, population 450,000, recorded 37 murders in 2017.  This is about 8.2 murders per 100,000 residents, and made for the deadliest year since 1998. 

Using the statistics you posted, Nashville/Davidson County, which has about 700,000 residents, has a rate of  15.3 murders per 100,000 residents.

https://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/crime/2017/12/31/homicide-tracker-list-37-killings-knoxville-knox-county-2017/910899001/

 

 

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This story is so on point you all may believe I am the author! ha

It seems knife attacks in London have increased to the extent the leftist mayor who previously suspended the police policy of stop and frisk is not implementing a new policy of stop and search! I kid you not...

 

London's Mayor Declares Intense New 'Knife Control' Policies To Stop Epidemic Of Stabbings

The police will now stop and frisk people believed to be carrying knives.

"
Strangely enough, Khan is responsible to decreasing the number of stop-and-searches, having previously declared the tactic racist and potentially Islamophobic. It's also not clear what local Londoners will now use to cut their food."

https://www.dailywire.com/news/29179/londons-mayor-declares-intense-new-knife-control-emily-zanotti

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14 hours ago, nashville_bound said:

This story is so on point you all may believe I am the author! ha

It seems knife attacks in London have increased to the extent the leftist mayor who previously suspended the police policy of stop and frisk is not implementing a new policy of stop and search! I kid you not...

 

London's Mayor Declares Intense New 'Knife Control' Policies To Stop Epidemic Of Stabbings

The police will now stop and frisk people believed to be carrying knives.

"
Strangely enough, Khan is responsible to decreasing the number of stop-and-searches, having previously declared the tactic racist and potentially Islamophobic. It's also not clear what local Londoners will now use to cut their food."

https://www.dailywire.com/news/29179/londons-mayor-declares-intense-new-knife-control-emily-zanotti

Interesting. So you propose that we should be more aggressive pursuing knives and guns in this country? Also interesting that other countries are unwilling to tolerate violence a fraction of the level we have here. 

 

Also, what policies have been put in place in the past few years that have led to the increase in murders in Nashville? You mentioned you had theories. 

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23 hours ago, nashville_bound said:

This story is so on point you all may believe I am the author! ha

It seems knife attacks in London have increased to the extent the leftist mayor who previously suspended the police policy of stop and frisk is not implementing a new policy of stop and search! I kid you not...

 

London's Mayor Declares Intense New 'Knife Control' Policies To Stop Epidemic Of Stabbings

The police will now stop and frisk people believed to be carrying knives.

"
Strangely enough, Khan is responsible to decreasing the number of stop-and-searches, having previously declared the tactic racist and potentially Islamophobic. It's also not clear what local Londoners will now use to cut their food."

https://www.dailywire.com/news/29179/londons-mayor-declares-intense-new-knife-control-emily-zanotti

Khan is ill-prepared to address Britain's crime problem, and sadly, his policies will only get worse. I understand correlation =/= causation, but let's think about this for a minute: London has the toughest gun laws in Britain, yet has a higher murder rate than New York City. New York City! He then addresses the problem by banning knives, instead of targeting groups responisble for the increase in murders. 

What will he do next when he fails to implement background checks? Ban hammers and nails? Cars? Garden tools? 

Good luck out there, Sadiq.

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3 hours ago, nativetenn said:

Khan is ill-prepared to address Britain's crime problem, and sadly, his policies will only get worse. I understand correlation =/= causation, but let's think about this for a minute: London has the toughest gun laws in Britain, yet has a higher murder rate than New York City. New York City! He then addresses the problem by banning knives, instead of targeting groups responisble for the increase in murders. 

What will he do next when he fails to implement background checks? Ban hammers and nails? Cars? Garden tools? 

Good luck out there, Sadiq.

London has a murder rate one third of New York’s. Guys, please diversify your news sources and start going to actually sources.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/london-murder-rate-new-york-compare-worse-stabbings-knife-crime-teenagers-statistics-figures-a8286866.html

 

Conservatives: London is not more dangerous than nyc. Not complicated.

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3 hours ago, samsonh said:

London has a murder rate one third of New York’s. Guys, please diversify your news sources and start going to actually sources.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/london-murder-rate-new-york-compare-worse-stabbings-knife-crime-teenagers-statistics-figures-a8286866.html

 

Conservatives: London is not more dangerous than nyc. Not complicated.

It is true that this has only been matched in the past two months- and also due to the drop in NY's murder rate- but that still doesn't solve the problem. Khan failed to enforce background checks (which, believe me, I think are desperately needed in this country) and pulled the race card in spite of the largest refugee crisis of our time. So what happened?  The city became less safe.

Sure, historically speaking, London is much less dangerous than NYC. But should Khan respond to the increase in crime by banning knives? Will that help matters if, as you insist, London's murder rate this calendar year was unusually high the first two months but should return to its statistically average levels later?

 

Also, I'm not a conservative.

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On 4/6/2018 at 6:32 PM, Hey_Hey said:

There has been an noticeable uptick in the number of murders in America's largest cities. I don't think that has included all parts of urban areas (the stat 80% of people live in urban places includes places like Franklin, Springfield, and Dickson), but it has affected truly urban areas.  Nashville's crime stats can't be ignored.

Murders by year:

  • 2010 - 60
  • 2011 - 51
  • 2012 - 62
  • 2013 - 43
  • 2014 - 41
  • 2015 - 75
  • 2016 - 84
  • 2017 - 107

Going from 41 murders in 2014 to 107 in 2017 isn't statistical noise. Something happened.  I have a couple of theories about what happened, but it is clear that something has changed in a short amount of time to cause this spike.

Does the increasing homicide rate coincide with the increasing population of Nashville?

There is definitely an officer shortage. Just a quick search found this, it's the union claiming that but if we've added 40k people and only 126 officers sure seems like it's a policing problem. 

https://patch.com/tennessee/nashville/nashville-faces-police-shortage-police-union-claims

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17 minutes ago, PaulChinetti said:

Does the increasing homicide rate coincide with the increasing population of Nashville?

There is definitely an officer shortage. Just a quick search found this, it's the union claiming that but if we've added 40k people and only 126 officers sure seems like it's a policing problem. 

https://patch.com/tennessee/nashville/nashville-faces-police-shortage-police-union-claims

Not sure if it’s correct for nowadays but a few years ago a friend of mine who is a prosecutor for the Nashville DA said that the entire stretch from the river to Briley on Gallatin only had like 8 officers in the overnight shift. For one of the highest crime stretches of Nashville (even more so back when he told me this). 

As far as a per-capita, the increase in murders far outweighs the increase in population, but it could definitely be a policing issue. Either too few cops or how they’re policing. No idea, myself. I just stay armed and ready to defend me and mine. 

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