Charlotte economy...

[videtur quam contuor]

I ha a friend who moved from here to Columbia for a job long ago. He invited me down for a weekend. It was summer. The city had improved a stretch of the Congaree in town as a quasi- park with trails and such so we planned a picnic. As we were enjoying some shade on a hot day we could hear distant voices. On our return to the car we went on another trail up the hill and found ourselves within sight of the perimeter fence of the Central Correctional or "the Pen". The photo is below. You see the large windows, and prisoners could pull themselves up to the sill and when they saw us the better lungs among them shouted to attract our attention. We could have had a conversation or thrown something over. I cannot recall what was said but it was creepy and we kept going and paid as little heed as we could.

Columbia SC, I dunno.

 

It was demolished in the mid 1990's

[SgtCampsalot]

7 minutes ago, tarhoosier said:

It was demolished in the mid 1990's

That is a CASTLE!

[Matthew.Brendan]

If you like that go visit the Eastern State Pen next time you are in Philadelphia. There are tours. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_State_Penitentiary

[Hushpuppy321]

What do you guys think about the Multi-family report just released saying charlotte (and others) are in danger of too much Supply and not enough demand in the near future?

[KJHburg]

19 minutes ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

What do you guys think about the Multi-family report just released saying charlotte (and others) are in danger of too much Supply and not enough demand in the near future?

I do think there is way too much supply uptown and they do have a 20% vacancy because of the high rents.  That being said in other parts of town there has been some construction but not as much as in the central core of Charlotte.   The supply and demand is more in balance.  And those apartments uptown and in the center city  are the most expensive with parking garages etc.     I think this is why you don't see a bunch of new towers announced uptown like at Legacy.   Even Northwood Ravin which owns the Polk Bldg site could probably get a better return and quicker lease up on a new complex at Ballantyne than another uptown site that would compete directly with their new 550 Stonewall.     High dollar apartments way too much supply;  more modest apartment complexes without wine bars, dog washes, free coffee,  free this and that and those are what is needed.    These apartment towers intown need to be more spaced apart timewise but if a bank lends them money it is like we need to start despite others doing the same.    Charlotte has had many booms and busts with apartments.  

Edited July 10, 2018 by KJHburg

[kermit]

32 minutes ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

What do you guys think about the Multi-family report just released saying charlotte (and others) are in danger of too much Supply and not enough demand in the near future?

It doesn't help much with new construction but declining rents are the only thing that will make newer intown multifamily interesting places to live. Lower rents will be the best thing that could happen to sustaining intown development.

[Cadi40]

Could anybody see Charlotte’s housing market crash soon? Outside of Uptown it’s a relatively healthy market. Whenever someone brings up the small possibility of something negative happening to Charlotte my brain explodes. 

[KJHburg]

^^^   Keep watching job growth and as long as it stays very positive housing will continue to boom.  There is a SHORTAGE of homes under $250,000 in the metro area. Why? Almost No new single family construction in that price range due to rising building cost, land costs etc.    That segment of the market is the largest with the lowest inventory.  Plenty of homes over $600-700K and higher.  Plenty of construction in those price ranges plenty of resales.  Interest rates are inching upward but with rental prices out of sight in Charlotte it is cheaper to buy than rent.    All these comments are about the for sale market.   As I stated above rental market is strong except with the most expensive luxury apartments mainly uptown and in the center city.    People are still moving here and jobs are growing which all creates housing demand.  

Edited July 10, 2018 by KJHburg

[cjd5050]

10 hours ago, KJHburg said:

^^^   Keep watching job growth and as long as it stays very positive housing will continue to boom.  There is a SHORTAGE of homes under $250,000 in the metro area. Why? Almost No new single family construction in that price range due to rising building cost, land costs etc.    That segment of the market is the largest with the lowest inventory.  Plenty of homes over $600-700K and higher.  Plenty of construction in those price ranges plenty of resales.  Interest rates are inching upward but with rental prices out of sight in Charlotte it is cheaper to buy than rent.    All these comments are about the for sale market.   As I stated above rental market is strong except with the most expensive luxury apartments mainly uptown and in the center city.    People are still moving here and jobs are growing which all creates housing demand.  

At what point does it become reasonable to tell someone if they don't have $250,000+ then they should stop looking at homes and focus on condos or townhouses?  Are we there yet?   That's the case in many other cities and Charlotte continues to grow.  

At what point does the floor for Charlotte get to rise and have that be somewhat socially acceptable?

[Dale]

10 minutes ago, cjd5050 said:

At what point does it become reasonable to tell someone if they don't have $250,000+ then they should stop looking at homes and focus on condos or townhouses?  Are we there yet?   That's the case in many other cities and Charlotte continues to grow.  

At what point does the floor for Charlotte get to rise and have that be somewhat socially acceptable?

Sooner or later all prospering cities become victims of their own success. Then, hello super-commuting, followed by dislocation to smaller cities. In fact, it's no longer people moving from cities to like Chicago to cities like Charlotte. It's people moving to cities like Richmond and Louisville.

[videtur quam contuor]

Someone on city-data posted he moved to Charlotte for a job over a year ago and rents downtown for his downtown job. He and his wife had a child early this year and they are thinking of buying. He wants 30 minute commute maximum and has 350,000$. I looked at carolinahome.com and with that commute, including park and ride option, he was out of luck. I was surprised which shows how out of the loop I am. 

[KJHburg]

^^^  If you want to live in intown purchasing a townhome is becoming a bigger part of the market  However if you have a family and need 3-4 bedrooms larger townhomes are much more expensive than a comparable single family home.   School districts are also an issue.     Charlotte is not ever going to be a townhouse market like the DC area which has been expensive for a long long time.  Our suburbs are going to continue to grow all over Meck county and the surrounding counties but also our core city is growing too.   Townhomes will continue to be an important increasing part of the market in the city of Charlotte but less so in the suburbs.  

[cjd5050]

57 minutes ago, tarhoosier said:

Someone on city-data posted he moved to Charlotte for a job over a year ago and rents downtown for his downtown job. He and his wife had a child early this year and they are thinking of buying. He wants 30 minute commute maximum and has 350,000$. I looked at carolinahome.com and with that commute, including park and ride option, he was out of luck. I was surprised which shows how out of the loop I am. 

1

BS.  

2333 Commonwealth Ave, Charlotte, NC 28205 is listed for $340k.  It has 2 bedrooms and 1,083 sf. and a 13-minute commute to Trade and Tryon with traffic.  

1324 E 35th St, Charlotte, NC 28205 is listed for $325k.  It has 3 bedrooms and 1,280 sf and a 13-minute commute to Trade and Tryon with traffic.  

1516 Downs Ave, Charlotte, NC 28205 is listed for $306k.  It has 3 bedrooms and 1,140 sf and a 14-minute commute to Trade and Tryon with traffic.  

Now if this someone were to remove the arbitrary 30-minute commute they can afford much more.

10213 Ridgemore Dr, Charlotte, NC 28277 is listed for 340k.  It has 4 bedrooms 2,189 sf and a difficult 36-minute commute to Trade and Tryon with traffic.  

6117 Rosebriar Ln, Charlotte, NC 28277 is listed for $333k.  It has 4 bedrooms and 2,240 sf and a horrible 36-minute commute to Trade and Tryon with traffic.  

 

 

[cjd5050]

1 hour ago, Dale said:

Sooner or later all prospering cities become victims of their own success. Then, hello super-commuting, followed by dislocation to smaller cities. In fact, it's no longer people moving from cities to like Chicago to cities like Charlotte. It's people moving to cities like Richmond and Louisville.

I think the biggest challenge for this is the idea that the region be centered on just one intersection.   All roads leading to Rome is the cause of the eventual downfall. That's the dysfunctional DNA in most cities.   Unlike most cities, it's not like Uptown is on the water, where there is a natural pull. 

 I think the future of Charlotte should focus on building multiple city centers spread around the region.  Take for example all of the underdeveloped lands near the Arrowood, I-485 and Sharon Rd West stations.   If we're talking about trying to plan for the next 50 years rather than the next 5, every effort should be made to try and redevelop this area into its own center.   

[Cadi40]

I think that’s what Charlotte is trying to do. Develop a multitude of city centers that attract different types of people. For example, Take Southpark, an absolutely booming area of Charlotte aimed towards the wealthier and those who like shopping. Itself is an urban center. 

[Nick2]

8 hours ago, cjd5050 said:

I think the biggest challenge for this is the idea that the region be centered on just one intersection.   All roads leading to Rome is the cause of the eventual downfall. That's the dysfunctional DNA in most cities.   Unlike most cities, it's not like Uptown is on the water, where there is a natural pull. 

 I think the future of Charlotte should focus on building multiple city centers spread around the region.  Take for example all of the underdeveloped lands near the Arrowood, I-485 and Sharon Rd West stations.   If we're talking about trying to plan for the next 50 years rather than the next 5, every effort should be made to try and redevelop this area into its own center.   

Isnt building multiple city centers what Atlanta did and what lead to their horrific traffic problems?

[KJHburg]

,^^^ We already have multiple employment hubs in Charlotte.  Uptown is the biggest,  2nd biggest is the University Research Park area (Wells, TIAA, Allstate,  Duke, Electrolux etc) 3rd biggest is the Arrowood area along Westinghouse Blvd then it would be Ballatyne.     Plus the airport is a huge an employment center.  Southpark is in the mix too of course.  Personally the more employers we can put along the LYNX line the better.  

In ATL Perimeter Mall area has more office space than downtown Atlanta and then there is Midtown, Buckhead, Cumberland Cobb Center area then Alpahretta then of course  the huge ATL airport.  

Edited July 10, 2018 by KJHburg

[Cadi40]

Sadly, Having all of those employment hubs adds to traffic and sprawl. But, Those hubs can be beneficial as they transform to all become individual urban centers. Therefore, Having many employment hubs can help divide the amount of people going to one place and even help housing in some scenarios.

[cjd5050]

12 hours ago, Nick2 said:

Isnt building multiple city centers what Atlanta did and what lead to their horrific traffic problems?

I am not too familiar with Atlanta but I am not sure it's comparable to Charlotte in that Atlanta is mostly spread over 4 counties.   Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb and DeKalb all range from 1 million to 750k residents.  

Just looking at how that region manages transportation, Fulton and Dekalb run under Marta.  While Cobb and Gwinnett run under a separate system.  So by population, counties 1 and 4 work together and counties 2 and 3 work together...then you have to try and get those two authorities to work together.    Is it a shock that with 4 counties to serve and two transportation bodies up and running...traffic might get ugly?  Pretty sure that's a recipe for haphazard infrastructure planning.  

Edited July 11, 2018 by cjd5050

[KJHburg]

Of the 37  publicly  traded companies based in NC that have revenues of over $1 Billion  17 are based in the Charlotte area and 10 in the Raleigh Durham area.  Of the top 10 5 are  in Charlotte area and 2 in Raleigh Durham.   All this is from the Business Journal lists last week issue.  

One to note is Brighthouse Financial with almost $5 billion in revenue.  Hopefully as someone mentioned before they make it on the Fortune 500 next year.

Largest companies based in Charlotte you asked in order are       Bank of America, Lowes, Duke Energy, Ingersoll Rand, Nucor, Albemarle Corp, SealedAir, Curtiss Wright, Brighthouse, and Premier all in the top 25 of the biggest companies based in NC.  

and coming in #68 on the list is Charlotte based RumbleOn   https://www.rumbleon.com/

Charlotte's business community is much more than just financial as this list shows. 

Edited July 18, 2018 by KJHburg

[Rufus]

14 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Of the 37  publicly  traded companies based in NC that have revenues of over $1 Billion  17 are based in the Charlotte area and 10 in the Raleigh Durham area.  Of the top 10 5 are  in Charlotte area and 2 in Raleigh Durham.   All this is from the Business Journal lists last week issue.  

One to note is Brighthouse Financial with almost $5 billion in revenue.  Hopefully as someone mentioned before they make it on the Fortune 500 next year.

Largest companies based in Charlotte you asked in order are       Bank of America, Lowes, Duke Energy, Ingersoll Rand, Nucor, Albemarle Corp, SealedAir, Curtiss Wright, Brighthouse, and Premier all in the top 25 of the biggest companies based in NC.  

and coming in #68 on the list is Charlotte based RumbleOn   https://www.rumbleon.com/

Charlotte's business community is much more than just financial as this list shows. 

Where have you gotten your information? Wanting to know because I've been trying to compile a list of $1billion Companies in NC for a while now, and doing so through NASDAQ and NYSE is such a pain haha. 

[KJHburg]

1 hour ago, Rufus said:

Where have you gotten your information? Wanting to know because I've been trying to compile a list of $1billion Companies in NC for a while now, and doing so through NASDAQ and NYSE is such a pain haha. 

This current weeks Business Journal of Charlotte has the list of the top 100 publicly traded companies.  

[KJHburg]

This is my cliff note version of John Connaughton's state of the NC economy second quarter report.   This is well worth watching the whole 45 min discussion with at 15 more minutes of questions.

https://belkcollege.charlotte.edu/community-engagement/north-carolina-economic-forecast     HIGHLY RECOMMEND THIS. 

My Headlines and notes:

50/50 chance of recession this year.

Fed tightening and raising the rates to reign in the inflation over 8%.  Energy costs, supply chain problems, overspending by government, stimulus checks too much money chasing too fee products. Covid. etc   Mortgage rates will continue to rise this year. 

Does not know if would be  a soft or hard landing. 

NC has had the #9 best of out of the 50 states in terms of covid recovery

NC is now 53,300 jobs higher in Dec. 21 than Dec. 2109 before covid. GDP of the state is 4.9% higher over those 2 years.

FIRE  Finance insurance and real estate is the biggest part of the NC economy 18.6% of the states GDP

A 50 cent increase in gas means $61 Billion in more consumer spending. That money comes from somewhere in a family budget.   So with the price increase we have had in the last 18 months $600 Billion out of consumer budget including increases in shipping costs etc. 

My thoughts if a project does not start by the end of the year it will be difficult however I do think if there is a recession building costs will moderate a lot.  Cost of borrowing money will be high. 

 

PS I am not a negative person but I am a realist and preparing for this slowing economy and you should be too.   Cures for high inflation are not easy pills to swallow.  Good news the recessions of the last 20 years or so are much shorter and the good times much longer.  But remember this tough times never last but tough people do.  Prepare for it.  Some of you as adults have never been through a recession I have been in many in my career including the absolute worst real estate depression since well the great Depression.  That was not a recession for my industry it was a depression.  But I survived by being smart and you can too.  

[rancenc]

Great recent aerial view of the Southend area.....an important component of Charlotte's continued growth.

 

[TCLT]

19 hours ago, KJHburg said:

A 50 cent increase in gas means $61 Billion in more consumer spending. That money comes from somewhere in a family budget.   So with the price increase we have had in the last 18 months $600 Billion out of consumer budget including increases in shipping costs etc. 

I'm not at all a fan of Connaughton's presentation of this. His data says that the current increase in gas prices, $1.94 up since January 2021 (aside: I assume he chose that data point to coincide with Biden's term beginning), would result in $585.9 billion in increased costs to consumers annually. That is if gas prices stayed $1.94 higher for an entire year it would cost consumers $585.9 billion (including all ancillary uses of gasoline passed on to consumers other than for personal vehicle use). However gas prices haven't been that high for a year. His own chart shows that it didn't even get above $3.50 until about February 2022. The actual reduction in consumers' spending power has been significantly less than $585.9 billion in the last 18 months. He could've provided a more accurate estimate of increased costs over the last 18 months but chose to present an annual estimate based on current price. Pretty weak in my opinion.