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RVA growth 1950 to today

flaneur

By flaneur
in Richmond

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Child2021
Child2021

Hello everyone, I am u/ThatChildNextDoor from the local subreddit, and I have been scrolling this page for a while but unfortunately was scared to comment on it, but I decided today that I would

wrldcoupe4
wrldcoupe4

Here’s an article on downtown population which jumped 45% between 2010 and 2021. It only includes the area bound between Belvedere, the river, and 95/64, so it excludes Shockoe Bottom, Manchester, etc

I miss RVA
I miss RVA

Idk - but this rabbit hole is going WAY too far afield..   OKAY... FOLKS ... My friends... respectfully...  please, let's refocus and get our discussions back on track to all things Richmond

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Icetera Burg

Icetera

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On 8/7/2021 at 10:19 AM, rjp212 said:

Local level 2020 Census Data is scheduled to be released on Thursday. I’m interested to see how much Richmond grew in the past decade. 

I hope it contains what we are looking for, otherwise I just see the March 2022 date.  I do see they are keeping up with yearly estimates and 2019 is listed higher than I have seen elsewhere (231,027 vs 230,436).

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I miss RVA Metropolis

I miss RVA

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2 hours ago, Icetera said:

I hope it contains what we are looking for, otherwise I just see the March 2022 date.  I do see they are keeping up with yearly estimates and 2019 is listed higher than I have seen elsewhere (231,027 vs 230,436).

According to the World Population Review website which seems to be keeping up with yearly estimates, it's showing the 2021 estimate for the city's population standing at 232,866. Let's how that's correct (or even a bit low!)

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/richmond-va-population

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Icetera Burg

Icetera

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1 hour ago, I miss RVA said:

According to the World Population Review website which seems to be keeping up with yearly estimates, it's showing the 2021 estimate for the city's population standing at 232,866. Let's how that's correct (or even a bit low!)

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/richmond-va-population

That is barely above the Census estimate for 2020 (232,226), so that is likely low.

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Downtowner Burg

Downtowner

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20 minutes ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

Trying to do a census during the pandemic … can’t imagine how accurate it will be, which sucks because it has far reaching implications for the next decade. 

So let me guess they will screw the entire metro over again and say we aren’t even to 1.3 million people yet. Way to screw our region over census. I get the pandemic probably had a lot to do it with it. There is no way on this planet I believe that Richmond city population is only 226k. I don’t believe it for a second we are a lot more than that. But like everything else people love to screw this metro over. I keep hearing of all of this demand of people moving here or wanting to move here.  What’s the truth and what’s the lie? Is the talk of all of this demand of people moving here just hot air or is it for real because these numbers sure don’t show it.

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I miss RVA Metropolis

I miss RVA

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, Downtowner said:

So let me guess they will screw the entire metro over again and say we aren’t even to 1.3 million people yet. Way to screw our region over census. I get the pandemic probably had a lot to do it with it. There is no way on this planet I believe that Richmond city population is only 226k. I don’t believe it for a second we are a lot more than that. But like everything else people love to screw this metro over. I keep hearing of all of this demand of people moving here or wanting to move here.  What’s the truth and what’s the lie? Is the talk of all of this demand of people moving here just hot air or is it for real because these numbers sure don’t show it.

I recall even late last year/early this year there was plenty of talk that the census count nationwide might be inaccurate to the low side for a variety of reasons, a primary reason being pandemic-related, plus some mishandling of how the census was being conducted, etc. Conjecture was the nation - and localities - would be undercounted in 2020 - and could perhaps see tremendously elevated percent increases decade-over-decade when 2030 rolls around, provided the same elements in place that make the 2020 count problematic are not a factor. I'll be very interested to see if RVA sees a big spike over 2020 in the next census.

Downtowner: while I respectfully don't think anyone was/is out to screw over RVA or the RVA metro, I DO think the city and area very well may have been significantly undercounted. I agree that it seems like RVA's population SHOULD be 6,000 or so higher than the official tally. I do think there is high demand for people moving here - given the explosive growth in the housing market here, both city and suburbs - and it's across the board in terms of housing type. Developers would not be lining up to build projects in RVA were the demand not here - and the demand would seem to suggest that the population -- in theory -- SHOULD be higher than 226K based on the amount of development over the past decade (especially in the second half of the decade - and particularly the last 2 or so years) 

How are the year-over-year estimates made? Is realtor data, home sales, apartment rentals, etc., collected, culled out and estimates then applied to localities? I've often wondered how yearly between-census estimates are calculated and upon what are they based. If there is hard data that's used to drive how these estimates are made, and the data sourcing is sound, then I have a hard time believing that year-over-year estimates could be THAT far off. RVA passed 226K residents (according to YoY estimates) what, three, four years ago at least? If I had to juxtapose the YoY tallies (provided their data sourcing is accurate and reliable) and the 2020 census, which was RIFE with problems from the get-go, I would suggest the census is inaccurate - and the estimates are closer to accurate. I realize the estimates aren't "official" - but I can't see how RVA can have an estimated population of 230K-plus in 2019 and -- WHILE GROWING -- end up with only 226K in 2020. 

I'm sure the minds far better than mine here on RVA/UP might know the answer to that question (how the YoY estimates are sourced and tallied). 

Edited by I miss RVA
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vdogg Megalopolis

vdogg

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5 hours ago, Downtowner said:

So let me guess they will screw the entire metro over again and say we aren’t even to 1.3 million people yet. Way to screw our region over census. I get the pandemic probably had a lot to do it with it. There is no way on this planet I believe that Richmond city population is only 226k. I don’t believe it for a second we are a lot more than that. But like everything else people love to screw this metro over. I keep hearing of all of this demand of people moving here or wanting to move here.  What’s the truth and what’s the lie? Is the talk of all of this demand of people moving here just hot air or is it for real because these numbers sure don’t show it.

The number of cranes I saw in the Richmond skyline when I visited a couple weeks ago was astonishing. It's definitely growing, got to take this census with a grain of salt.

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KJHburg Ecumenopolis

KJHburg

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Posted (edited)

Charlotte 2020 numbers came in less than we expected as well and Greensboro came 65 people less than 300,000 mark!   But someone on Charlotte UP found this information  See Charlotte in Mecklenburg county seemed undercounted as well. 

image.png.ed2386c37a763c2f7728858233db8753.png

image.png.4828976fe0baa5d01812670666f1b530.png

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vdogg Megalopolis

vdogg

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Had the same issue down here. Norfolk actually lost pop but the metro itself is booming, which is weird when considering that Norfolk is in the middle of a downtown building boom. I suspect that census response rates were a big factor in the disappointing numbers for both cities.

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Icetera Burg

Icetera

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12 hours ago, Kevin Cheph Randall said:

Yeah Richmond seems to be bigger than Norfolk for sure especially with all the development in Richmond lately. I think Richmond numbers are jacked considering the city was kind of mid riot LOL during the census. 

 

My projections have had Richmond surpassing Norfolk by 2030.  This would have included Richmond being around 236k and Norfolk starting to recover growth at 247k for 2020.  I doubt the two days of riots in May had any effect on the census but the lack of internet access and census working hours (was cut short) for impoverished inner-city neighborhoods certainly would have, never-mind universities being out.

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I miss RVA Metropolis

I miss RVA

Posted
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27 minutes ago, eandslee said:

Didn't know where to put this, but this article is very interesting.  Where do you suppose the most people moving to Richmond come from?

https://www.wric.com/news/local-news/richmond/which-metro-areas-are-sending-the-most-people-to-richmond-1-and-2-will-not-surprise-you/

Wait - 1 & 2 or 1 & 3? Because migration to RVA from DC and NYC is not at all surprising. 

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ancientcarpenter Hamlet

ancientcarpenter

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13 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

Wait - 1 & 2 or 1 & 3? Because migration to RVA from DC and NYC is not at all surprising. 

It's title-bait nonsense. We can all agree that our local news doing the "...you won't believe #1 and #2!" in their title is displaying the sad state of what the internet has done to the news world. 

 

It's quite an interesting article....

Edited by ancientcarpenter
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