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RVA growth 1950 to today


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Everything in life involves trade-offs and there are so many variables and factors involved, as well as ways to measure and interpret, success and outcomes. I agree that bigger isn't always better. In

I was curious to see where Richmond stacked compared to other cities that declined since the mid-century.  The below chart shows cities with 2019 populations 200k or greater that have seen historical

For all the urban nerds into population figures and the growth or decline of our metropolitan areas, here's an older article that has an interesting table showing populations of all the top metros in

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On 8/7/2021 at 10:19 AM, rjp212 said:

Local level 2020 Census Data is scheduled to be released on Thursday. I’m interested to see how much Richmond grew in the past decade. 

I hope it contains what we are looking for, otherwise I just see the March 2022 date.  I do see they are keeping up with yearly estimates and 2019 is listed higher than I have seen elsewhere (231,027 vs 230,436).

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2 hours ago, Icetera said:

I hope it contains what we are looking for, otherwise I just see the March 2022 date.  I do see they are keeping up with yearly estimates and 2019 is listed higher than I have seen elsewhere (231,027 vs 230,436).

According to the World Population Review website which seems to be keeping up with yearly estimates, it's showing the 2021 estimate for the city's population standing at 232,866. Let's how that's correct (or even a bit low!)

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/richmond-va-population

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1 hour ago, I miss RVA said:

According to the World Population Review website which seems to be keeping up with yearly estimates, it's showing the 2021 estimate for the city's population standing at 232,866. Let's how that's correct (or even a bit low!)

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/richmond-va-population

That is barely above the Census estimate for 2020 (232,226), so that is likely low.

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28 minutes ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

Official number is super disappointing 226,610.  

Jesus ...   I don't even know what to say.  I feel iike I've been punched in the stomach.

Edited by I miss RVA
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20 minutes ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

Trying to do a census during the pandemic … can’t imagine how accurate it will be, which sucks because it has far reaching implications for the next decade. 

So let me guess they will screw the entire metro over again and say we aren’t even to 1.3 million people yet. Way to screw our region over census. I get the pandemic probably had a lot to do it with it. There is no way on this planet I believe that Richmond city population is only 226k. I don’t believe it for a second we are a lot more than that. But like everything else people love to screw this metro over. I keep hearing of all of this demand of people moving here or wanting to move here.  What’s the truth and what’s the lie? Is the talk of all of this demand of people moving here just hot air or is it for real because these numbers sure don’t show it.

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2 hours ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

Official number is super disappointing 226,610.  

VCU has an enrollment of 31k. How many of them were living in Richmond during the pandemic? There's your difference. Sucks because this will determine funding, congressional districting etc for another ten years.

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58 minutes ago, Downtowner said:

So let me guess they will screw the entire metro over again and say we aren’t even to 1.3 million people yet. Way to screw our region over census. I get the pandemic probably had a lot to do it with it. There is no way on this planet I believe that Richmond city population is only 226k. I don’t believe it for a second we are a lot more than that. But like everything else people love to screw this metro over. I keep hearing of all of this demand of people moving here or wanting to move here.  What’s the truth and what’s the lie? Is the talk of all of this demand of people moving here just hot air or is it for real because these numbers sure don’t show it.

I recall even late last year/early this year there was plenty of talk that the census count nationwide might be inaccurate to the low side for a variety of reasons, a primary reason being pandemic-related, plus some mishandling of how the census was being conducted, etc. Conjecture was the nation - and localities - would be undercounted in 2020 - and could perhaps see tremendously elevated percent increases decade-over-decade when 2030 rolls around, provided the same elements in place that make the 2020 count problematic are not a factor. I'll be very interested to see if RVA sees a big spike over 2020 in the next census.

Downtowner: while I respectfully don't think anyone was/is out to screw over RVA or the RVA metro, I DO think the city and area very well may have been significantly undercounted. I agree that it seems like RVA's population SHOULD be 6,000 or so higher than the official tally. I do think there is high demand for people moving here - given the explosive growth in the housing market here, both city and suburbs - and it's across the board in terms of housing type. Developers would not be lining up to build projects in RVA were the demand not here - and the demand would seem to suggest that the population -- in theory -- SHOULD be higher than 226K based on the amount of development over the past decade (especially in the second half of the decade - and particularly the last 2 or so years) 

How are the year-over-year estimates made? Is realtor data, home sales, apartment rentals, etc., collected, culled out and estimates then applied to localities? I've often wondered how yearly between-census estimates are calculated and upon what are they based. If there is hard data that's used to drive how these estimates are made, and the data sourcing is sound, then I have a hard time believing that year-over-year estimates could be THAT far off. RVA passed 226K residents (according to YoY estimates) what, three, four years ago at least? If I had to juxtapose the YoY tallies (provided their data sourcing is accurate and reliable) and the 2020 census, which was RIFE with problems from the get-go, I would suggest the census is inaccurate - and the estimates are closer to accurate. I realize the estimates aren't "official" - but I can't see how RVA can have an estimated population of 230K-plus in 2019 and -- WHILE GROWING -- end up with only 226K in 2020. 

I'm sure the minds far better than mine here on RVA/UP might know the answer to that question (how the YoY estimates are sourced and tallied). 

Edited by I miss RVA
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Charlotte 2020 numbers came in less than we expected as well and Greensboro came 65 people less than 300,000 mark!   But someone on Charlotte UP found this information  See Charlotte in Mecklenburg county seemed undercounted as well. 

image.png.ed2386c37a763c2f7728858233db8753.png

image.png.4828976fe0baa5d01812670666f1b530.png

Edited by KJHburg
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13 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

I'm sure the minds far better than mine here on RVA/UP might know the answer to that question (how the YoY estimates are sourced and tallied). 

According to the Census Bureau:

Each year, the Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program uses current data on births, deaths, and migration to calculate population change since the most recent decennial census and produces a time series of estimates of population, demographic components of change, and housing units. The annual time series of estimates begins with the most recent decennial census data and extends to the vintage year.”

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12 hours ago, Kevin Cheph Randall said:

Yeah Richmond seems to be bigger than Norfolk for sure especially with all the development in Richmond lately. I think Richmond numbers are jacked considering the city was kind of mid riot LOL during the census. 

 

My projections have had Richmond surpassing Norfolk by 2030.  This would have included Richmond being around 236k and Norfolk starting to recover growth at 247k for 2020.  I doubt the two days of riots in May had any effect on the census but the lack of internet access and census working hours (was cut short) for impoverished inner-city neighborhoods certainly would have, never-mind universities being out.

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