RVA growth 1950 to today

[Child2021]

Hello everyone,

I am u/ThatChildNextDoor from the local subreddit, and I have been scrolling this page for a while but unfortunately was scared to comment on it, but I decided today that I would step up to the plate and do it. I am a 19-year-old college kid who is very interested in the development of Richmond. I came here to show you guys how much has Downtown Richmond has grown in this decade in both raw numbers and percentages, from a chart with data compiled from a commenter Richmond's City Data forum. 

Credits to dbcook1 of the City Data. 

[rjp212]

Welcome to the forum, @Child2021 !  Thank you for the info. 

[eandslee]

7 minutes ago, Child2021 said:

Hello everyone,

I am u/ThatChildNextDoor from the local subreddit, and I have been scrolling this page for a while but unfortunately was scared to comment on it, but I decided today that I would step up to the plate and do it. I am a 19-year-old college kid who is very interested in the development of Richmond. I came here to show you guys how much has Downtown Richmond has grown in this decade in both raw numbers and percentages, from a chart with data compiled from a commenter Richmond's City Data forum. 

Credits to dbcook1 of the City Data. 

Child2021 - Welcome to the forum (officially)!  I know I’ve seen you on Reddit. You should not have waited so long to post here.  Really appreciate the chart.  Interesting.  Question: did this collection of data exclude the NOVA cities (did they just not make the list)?  I’d be interested to see how cities like Fairfax and Reston compared. 

[whw53]

How is downtown being defined i wonder-given those numbers i don't know if the 'downtown' classed here is equivalent to our understanding of downtown as the Belividere-95-195\DE bounds. Also, for some of those smaller and suburban cities it's strange to consider a downtown Arlington or a downtown Staunton, Charlottesville, Fredericksburg for example as separate from the whole jurisdiction.  Thanks for sharing. 

Edited December 13, 2021 by whw53

[123fakestreet]

1 hour ago, Child2021 said:

Hello everyone,

I am u/ThatChildNextDoor from the local subreddit, and I have been scrolling this page for a while but unfortunately was scared to comment on it, but I decided today that I would step up to the plate and do it. I am a 19-year-old college kid who is very interested in the development of Richmond. I came here to show you guys how much has Downtown Richmond has grown in this decade in both raw numbers and percentages, from a chart with data compiled from a commenter Richmond's City Data forum. 

Credits to dbcook1 of the City Data. 

I saw this on reddit, glad you posted it here,  I was wondering what the difference was with the Richmond 300 Plan info that says only about 8k currently live downtown. Most likely two different definitions of where "downtown" is, but what is that difference?

[I miss RVA]

Hello @Child2021!!  Welcome to the forum and our lively community! So glad you've joined us. Here's hoping that now that you've tested the water, you'll be a regular. 

Thanks for sharing and posting the data. Very interesting information. Much like @eandslee , @whw53, and @123fakestreetmentioned: I'm also curious about the sourcing for the RVA downtown data and if what is considered "downtown"| by that data source may be different from what we traditionally consider to be the normal boundaries of downtown (Belvidere Street on the west, I-95/64 on the north and east and the river on the south). As @123fakestreetnoted, RVA planners noted that the most recent data available in the Richmond 300 Plan show that about 8,000 residents currently live in downtown RVA -- about 21K fewer people than the City Data forum numbers show. I'd love to know more as to how/where those numbers were sourced and how downtown is defined.

 

[Child2021]

18 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

Hello @Child2021!!  Welcome to the forum and our lively community! So glad you've joined us. Here's hoping that now that you've tested the water, you'll be a regular. 

Thanks for sharing and posting the data. Very interesting information. Much like @eandslee , @whw53, and @123fakestreetmentioned: I'm also curious about the sourcing for the RVA downtown data and if what is considered "downtown"| by that data source may be different from what we traditionally consider to be the normal boundaries of downtown (Belvidere Street on the west, I-95/64 on the north and east and the river on the south). As @123fakestreetnoted, RVA planners noted that the most recent data available in the Richmond 300 Plan show that about 8,000 residents currently live in downtown RVA -- about 21K fewer people than the City Data forum numbers show. I'd love to know more as to how/where those numbers were sourced and how downtown is defined.

 

According the post, it's boundary from Manchester to Jackson Ward from North to South, and the Fan to Shockoe Slip/Bottom area. Here's the map. 

Link to the map. Downtown Richmond Boundary - Google My Maps

 

Also, here is the orginal post with other Virginian Cities. 
Virginia Downtowns by Population Growth 2010 - 2020 - (VA) - City-Data Forum

Edited December 13, 2021 by Child2021

[I miss RVA]

20 minutes ago, Child2021 said:

According the post, it's boundary from Manchester to Jackson Ward from North to South, and the Fan to Shockoe Slip/Bottom area. Here's the map. 

Link to the map. Downtown Richmond Boundary - Google My Maps

 

Wow - very interesting.

I believe city planners are using the traditional downtown boundaries -- Belvidere Street along the west, I-96/64 along the north and east and the north bank of the James River along the south.

I've highlighted in red on the map you posted how actual "downtown proper" has been traditionally defined -- and it makes sense that there would be quite the disparity in population figures. As far as I'm aware, nothing west of Belvidere Street (lower Fan, VCU, Oregon Hill, Carver, etc.) has ever been considered part of "actual" downtown. Neither has anything in the East End (Church Hill, Union Hill, Shockoe Bottom) - and neither has Manchester.

ALL of those areas are distinct, separate districts.

 

Edited December 13, 2021 by I miss RVA

[whw53]

It looks like we are not the only one's confused - the City Data forum has a number of people questioning his chosen boundaries in other jurisdictions. He admits they are arbitrary and it was just an exercise in analyzing census data.

[I miss RVA]

31 minutes ago, whw53 said:

It looks like we are not the only one's confused - the City Data forum has a number of people questioning his chosen boundaries in other jurisdictions. He admits they are arbitrary and it was just an exercise in analyzing census data.

Good to know. I wonder if this was a school assignment or something he was doing out of his own interest?

[Icetera]

On 12/12/2021 at 9:58 PM, I miss RVA said:

Wow - very interesting.

I believe city planners are using the traditional downtown boundaries -- Belvidere Street along the west, I-96/64 along the north and east and the north bank of the James River along the south.

I've highlighted in red on the map you posted how actual "downtown proper" has been traditionally defined -- and it makes sense that there would be quite the disparity in population figures. As far as I'm aware, nothing west of Belvidere Street (lower Fan, VCU, Oregon Hill, Carver, etc.) has ever been considered part of "actual" downtown. Neither has anything in the East End (Church Hill, Union Hill, Shockoe Bottom) - and neither has Manchester.

ALL of those areas are distinct, separate districts.

 

I could have sworn Shockoe Bottom was also typically included in the Downtown demographics.

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, Icetera said:

I could have sworn Shockoe Bottom was also typically included in the Downtown demographics.

It might be, Ice. That's a really good question. Over the decades, I've always heard the boundary was I-95 - and that the Bottom was just that - the Bottom. It wasn't within downtown "proper". That could well have changed, though.

[ancientcarpenter]

On 12/12/2021 at 10:44 PM, I miss RVA said:

Good to know. I wonder if this was a school assignment or something he was doing out of his own interest?

I believe on reddit (or here?) he said he was a 19 year old VCU student interested in development related studies. Which brings up the point as to why it took all this time to be brought up until a 19 year old (who is clearly smart and ambitious) to create data like this? Doesn't the city/state have this data made public? Maybe not the traditional RVA "city" boundary? 

Edited December 14, 2021 by ancientcarpenter

[I miss RVA]

18 minutes ago, ancientcarpenter said:

I believe on reddit (or here?) he said he was a 19 year old VCU student interested in development related studies. Which brings up the point as to why it took all this time for a 19 year old to create data like this? Doesn't the city/state have this data made public? Maybe not the traditional RVA "city" boundary? 

Welp - I think I might have found one of the sources from where whoever compiled this information may have sourced it -- way back when, when Navy Hill was grabbing all the headlines - the folks who were the primary corporate drivers (NH District Corporation & Capital City Development LLC) -- when they published their primary North of Broad Redevelopment Proprosal, included various market studies to include demographics, office, hotel/entertainment, etc., trying to craft a narrative supporting not just the overall redevelopment proposals but particularly the new arena component. This screen capture is from their draft proposal - and notice how they use "modified" boundaries that are "largely consistent" with how the city defines "downtown" -- but is not an exact alignment.  It looks like whoever posted expanded downtown boundaries on Reddit did some kind of an amalgamation of boundaries used in the NH study and perhaps from other sources. It's not an exact matchup - but it's pretty close.

Have a look:

 

Edited December 14, 2021 by I miss RVA

[Child2021]

Important update for future population numbers coming on July 1st, from the University of Virginia Cooper Center. 
Here's a link: Virginia Population Projections | Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service

[I miss RVA]

9 minutes ago, Child2021 said:

Important update for future population numbers coming on July 1st, from the University of Virginia Cooper Center. 
Here's a link: Virginia Population Projections | Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service

Good information! Here's hoping these folks are actually underselling RVA city's population growth over the next 20 years.

[Child2021]

UVA Population: 
Richmond: 245,437 (2030), 256,015 (2040), 270,425 (2050)

Henrico: 356,656.....386,910......422,954

Chesterfield: 406,942, 452,942 (*After this is projected to surpass Virginia Beach in population numbers), 504,918. 

Hanover: 118,374, 128,283, 140,113 

METRO: Now: 1,323,480 ---> 1,665,315 (2050) 
Source: Virginia Population Projections | Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service

Note: I'm finally off to bed for the night, see you guys in a couple of hours!

It should also be noted that UVA does tend to low ball its population numbers, and that no one for certain for how the future will turn out, but this gives local municipal operators some type of lead way. 

[Virginian11]

6 hours ago, Child2021 said:

UVA Population: 
Richmond: 245,437 (2030), 256,015 (2040), 270,425 (2050)

Henrico: 356,656.....386,910......422,954

Chesterfield: 406,942, 452,942 (*After this is projected to surpass Virginia Beach in population numbers), 504,918. 

Hanover: 118,374, 128,283, 140,113 

METRO: Now: 1,323,480 ---> 1,665,315 (2050) 
Source: Virginia Population Projections | Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service

Note: I'm finally off to bed for the night, see you guys in a couple of hours!

It should also be noted that UVA does tend to low ball its population numbers, and that no one for certain for how the future will turn out, but this gives local municipal operators some type of lead way. 

Awesome!  Thank you!  I agree with your last paragraph, however.  These numbers are based on status quo trends and algos.  I think we’ve got some energy brewing in the area that can’t be quantified, accounted for or projected that has the potential to blow these numbers out of the water.  We’re a sleeping giant just starting to open its eyes…

also if you include the tri-cities in the metro that very conservative 2050 projection may be pushing 2 mil???

Edited July 1, 2022 by Virginian11

[Icetera]

3 hours ago, Virginian11 said:

Awesome!  Thank you!  I agree with your last paragraph, however.  These numbers are based on status quo trends and algos.  I think we’ve got some energy brewing in the area that can’t be quantified, accounted for or projected that has the potential to blow these numbers out of the water.  We’re a sleeping giant just starting to open its eyes…

also if you include the tri-cities in the metro that very conservative 2050 projection may be pushing 2 mil???

The Tri-Cities appear to be included as they are a part of the current 1.3 mil. metro population.

9 hours ago, Child2021 said:

UVA Population: 
Richmond: 245,437 (2030), 256,015 (2040), 270,425 (2050)

METRO: Now: 1,323,480 ---> 1,665,315 (2050) 
Source: Virginia Population Projections | Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service

Of note, this has Richmond surpassing Norfolk within the next couple years.

[I miss RVA]

I guess 340,000 in the city by 2037 is off the table...

[eandslee]

4 hours ago, Icetera said:

The Tri-Cities appear to be included as they are a part of the current 1.3 mil. metro population.

Of note, this has Richmond surpassing Norfolk within the next couple years.

Is that Norfolk of today or Norfolk of the next couple years?  ‘Cause Norfolk will be growing at the same time, right?

[wrldcoupe4]

They project Norfolk to be relatively flat. Also projecting that Chesterfield Co eventually surpasses Va Beach, which I wouldn't have anticipated ever happening. 

[I miss RVA]

Personally, I'm hoping they are WAY underselling RVA's growth - particularly in the city, but also metro-wide. With a few breaks - maybe some corporate relos as the mega-metros (NYC for example) continue to shed companies looking for more cost-friendly options -- or if RVA's newfound efforts at business and economic development recruitment (WAY long overdue, but boy am I glad they actually seem to be dead serious about this!) are successful, we might see an uptick that exceeds these projections. Given that the city -- CONSERVATIVELY -- gained 22,000 (and I still say that was a major undercount given all of the pandemic and government-related issues that suppressed census count two years ago) from 2010, it boggles my mind that the city's population growth would slow, particularly given all of the economic development going on here currently, plus the LEGO announcement, CoStar adding a couple thousand jobs... not EVERYONE will live in Chesterfield and Henrico.  We grew at something like 12-14% this past decade. The above projections forecast RVA to grow at 8% this decade. What would it take to maintain the previous decade's 12-15% rate? I wish somehow we could get into that 15-20% growth rate - but I doubt that will happen anytime soon.

UGH... as much as I want to celebrate this, it's just so damn frustrating to me that we would actually slow down from 12-14% -- when we didn't have as much development happening as we do now -- to only 8% when we DO have as much development as we have going on now. I hope and pray these projections are WAY short of what really happens. Otherwise how much farther up the food chain will we actually be in 10, 15, 20, 30 years? Slow and steady is nice - but that's all it is. It's "nice". It's not "great". Why? Because at least for the foreseeable future, it leaves us (quite unfortunately) in that extremely limited place, encapsulated by the phrase that @wrldcoupe4  reminds us of quite frequently: "... in a market the size of Richmond..."  Which we can -- from a development standpoint -- translate quite clearly as: we're still too small.

 

Edited July 1, 2022 by I miss RVA

[Child2021]

I wouldn't say its impossible, but as of now its unlikely the city's population will reach that number in a relatively short amount of time. I do believe Chesterfield's estimate will likely pan out, as its cheaper per square foot, and its still a lot of land avaible in chesterfield. 

Henrico will likely pick back up as the eastern sections start to get bulit out. As for the Metro population, you have to remember that the tricities are apartof richmond also, and they need some help of the way that you are seeing here in richmond. This is why i think that area could be pitched as premier logitics/manfacturing hub of virginia, and maybe coupled with some datacenters or regional headquartes of some medium sized orgs.

[Child2021]

Oh, and yeah the western outer areas are likely underestimated, as more construction picks up out there.