RVA growth 1950 to today

[Child2021]

Nightly discussion, remember when I the census said the Region grew by only little bit north of 100k? I just found this article, and it said, "In 2019, 64,000 people migrated to the Richmond region, according to U.S. census data compiled by the Greater Richmond Partnership," if this is the case then doesn't that mean that the census is entirely wrong and those projections, I posted here are already incorrect.
ARTICLE: The Great Migration - richmondmagazine.com

[Child2021]

Any Takers on this?

[Hike]

15 minutes ago, Child2021 said:

Any Takers on this?

It wouldn’t surprise me if the numbers were off, which is unfortunate, as the politicization of the census was a big part at the time of the rollout.

Edited July 23, 2022 by Hike

[I miss RVA]

45 minutes ago, Hike said:

It wouldn’t surprise me if the numbers were off, which is unfortunate, as the politicization of the census was a big part at the time of the rollout.

Fully agreed, @Hike. It makes me wonder if we'll see a natural "correction" baked into the 2030 census with more accurate, complete and thorough cencus-taking?

[Hike]

1 hour ago, I miss RVA said:

Fully agreed, @Hike. It makes me wonder if we'll see a natural "correction" baked into the 2030 census with more accurate, complete and thorough cencus-taking?

This may depend on who’s in office again.

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, Hike said:

This may depend on who’s in office again.

Oy vey - unfortunately, this is true! 

Edited July 24, 2022 by I miss RVA

[asies]

I taught at George Wythe High School last school year and I am convinced that there was a significant undercount of Latinos in this city.  Just during the last school year over 200 new EL (English Language learners) students registered well after the start of the school year. Look at how overcrowded River City Middle is.  Reports already show severe undercounts of communities of color, but as someone who worked a lot with Richmond's Latino community I wouldn't be surprised if they were undercounted by a few thousand. Most of the new arrivals are coming from Central America and many of the parents, including many of their kids, struggle to read and write even in their native language and would have needed help to fill out a census form.

[Child2021]

@asiesHadn't really taken that possible perspective in account, I knew there was a report that minorities (such as me) were undercounted due to us not filling out the census for other reasons. 

[Child2021]

Bad news if it verifies, Woods and Poole Economics doesn't think that the Metro area will get to 2 million even in 2060, but it does project strong growth in Northern Virginia & Chesterfield.   Predicting population can be tricky like weather, since there can and will be curve balls thrown in the next 10 - 30 years. A famous one would be 1940 (I think) census that projected United States population only reaching 220 or so million before declining, but immigration and a baby boom threw that out of the water. Oh, and early planners of Atlanta didn't expect the region to grow past 3 million but look at where it's at today. Anyway, enough rambling I just hope these projections are blown very much out of the water and we continue to overperform (See: Chesterfield). Link: Interactive Map (woodsandpoole.com)

[Icetera]

15 hours ago, Child2021 said:

Bad news if it verifies, Woods and Poole Economics doesn't think that the Metro area will get to 2 million even in 2060, but it does project strong growth in Northern Virginia & Chesterfield.   Predicting population can be tricky like weather, since there can and will be curve balls thrown in the next 10 - 30 years. A famous one would be 1940 (I think) census that projected United States population only reaching 220 or so million before declining, but immigration and a baby boom threw that out of the water. Oh, and early planners of Atlanta didn't expect the region to grow past 3 million but look at where it's at today. Anyway, enough rambling I just hope these projections are blown very much out of the water and we continue to overperform (See: Chesterfield). Link: Interactive Map (woodsandpoole.com)

I suspect the data is very skewed on that as it has Richmond at only 256k in 2060, meanwhile Norfolk drops to 233k.  This appears to be using an oversimplification of the 2020 census which we all know was highly unreliable for city cores.

[Downtowner]

10 minutes ago, Icetera said:

I suspect the data is very skewed on that as it has Richmond at only 256k in 2060, meanwhile Norfolk drops to 233k.  This appears to be using an oversimplification of the 2020 census which we all know was highly unreliable for city cores.

Yes I don’t believe for a second we won’t have 2 million or more by then. We will definitely I think have that by then. If they are doing it based on young people not having children then that’s going to be a world wide issue not just a Richmond or va or USA problem. Need to not forecast that far out. I will be 80 in 2068 and 72 in 2060.

[I miss RVA]

2 minutes ago, Icetera said:

I suspect the data is very skewed on that as it has Richmond at only 266k in 2060, meanwhile Norfolk drops to 233k.  This appears to be using an oversimplification of the 2020 census which we all know was highly unreliable for city cores.

Agreed, Ice. Even set aside landing any large employers which would be like pouring rocket fuel on growth - if the city (and for that matter, the metro) keeps up the pace of development it has established over the last few years - and if demand stays high - just natural growth of folks moving into the city and filling these new spaces (which from all indications continues at a blisteringly hot pace) I find it challenging that the city would grow by only 40,000 residents over the next 37-plus years. I just can't see it. Barring something that would change the trajectory -- growth begets growth. And if efforts to recruit major employer relocations are successful - and by all accounts there seems to be no letup in the amount of effort going into it (witness the Greater Richmond Partnership) - plus the city's own efforts with major redevelopments like the Diamond District, City Center, etc., - I just can't see RVA continuing to grow at a mere snail's pace. Other cities are booming - and as factors that attract that level of growth continue to strengthen, align, come into focus in Richmond (city and metro) there is no reason to believe that we won't boom as well. Over 40 years - I find it almost impossible to believe that these other cities that are cranking away at more than double-digit growth rates will just keep cranking away - but that RVA will inch along at a paltry single-digit rate. I just can't see it.

Plus - as you mentioned, Ice, the 2020 census was statistically a dumpster fire for heaven-itself knows how many reasons, not the least of which was the pandemic. I think 2030 will see a true-up and that RVA's figures will be much higher than we might expect - simply because it will (hopefully) more accurately account for a decade's worth of growth - plus - what was missing for the 2020 totals. This will likely be true in cities across the country.

[Icetera]

19 minutes ago, Icetera said:

I suspect the data is very skewed on that as it has Richmond at only 256k in 2060, meanwhile Norfolk drops to 233k.  This appears to be using an oversimplification of the 2020 census which we all know was highly unreliable for city cores.

I reverse-engineered their data and it appears to be projecting based on an average of the change from 2018-2020 and 2019-2020.  This ignores crucial trends over the past 15 years and is incredibly inaccurate.

[I miss RVA]

21 minutes ago, Downtowner said:

Yes I don’t believe for a second we won’t have 2 million or more by then. We will definitely I think have that by then. If they are doing it based on young people not having children then that’s going to be a world wide issue not just a Richmond or va or USA problem. Need to not forecast that far out. I will be 80 in 2068 and 72 in 2060.

Not that I think I'll be around in 2060 - but if I am - Jesus - I'll be 98.

[eandslee]

Some great finds I found on Twitter regarding Henrico’s growth over the years:

 

Also interesting:

 

Edited December 2, 2022 by eandslee

[I miss RVA]

Wow - this set of panels is very informative about Henrico's growth over the past 60-plus years.

 

And then - this circle graph - WOW - 29% of respondents can be quite correctly described as either NIMBYs or BANANAs! WOWWW...

 

Edited December 3, 2022 by I miss RVA

[eandslee]

Interesting article on Henrico’s growth this past year:  number 24 in the country…according to Uhaul:

https://www.henricocitizen.com/articles/henrico-ranks-as-24th-growth-region-nationally-in-u-haul-analysis/

[Child2021]

Weird, I thought the census said that Chesterfield was the one of the fastest growing counties in Virginia, but hopefully this stays true for next 30 years so we can see Henrico build out and grow to at least half million people by 2045. 

[eandslee]

4 hours ago, Child2021 said:

Weird, I thought the census said that Chesterfield was the one of the fastest growing counties in Virginia, but hopefully this stays true for next 30 years so we can see Henrico build out and grow to at least half million people by 2045. 

Honestly, I’m surprised Henrico (and Chesterfield for that matter) aren’t already sitting close to 500K people already.  They can’t be too far off, right?  Will it even take until 2045?

[I miss RVA]

13 minutes ago, eandslee said:

Honestly, I’m surprised Henrico (and Chesterfield for that matter) aren’t already sitting close to 500K people already.  They can’t be too far off, right?  Will it even take until 2045?

According to World Population Review - Henrico is estimated at 342,624. Open Data Network is forecasting the county to reach 345,904 this year.

World Population Review is estimates Chesterfield at 379,041. (NOTE: Open Data Network was forecasting the county to hit only 362,468 and as of yet, there are no revised forecasts published.)

Edited January 10, 2023 by I miss RVA

[eandslee]

5 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

According to World Population Review - Henrico is estimated at 342,624. Open Data Network is forecasting the county to reach 345,904 this year.

World Population Review is estimates Chesterfield at 379,041. (NOTE: Open Data Network was forecasting the county to hit only 362,468 and as of yet, there are no revised forecasts published.)

Oh wow…I guess I was way off. I thought Henrico and Chesterfield had more people than that. Hmmmm

[I miss RVA]

55 minutes ago, eandslee said:

Oh wow…I guess I was way off. I thought Henrico and Chesterfield had more people than that. Hmmmm

Let's see what happens in the next couple of years once LEGO gets here (and their nearly 2,000 jobs) and once CoStar's building downtown is complete and their upwards of (hopefully!) 3,000 jobs start showing up. Plus all the tech, warehouse, manufacturing and distribution stuff happening in Sandston and Varina. I'm not a betting man, but I'd be willing to wager that come 2025-26 is when we might see a fairly significant spike in growth rates for the city and all three of the larger suburban counties. (Let's keep in mind that even Hanover is starting to grow at a fairly robust clip - they've topped 113,000 according to 2023 estimates). Let's get the heavy hitters here with their how-ever-many thousands of jobs by the middle of the decade and check for a big bump up across the metro. 

Something that should be very encouraging is the fact that developers keep pouring into the metro with projects of all shapes and sizes - and some are quite large. A little rhyme to keep in mind regarding all these residential projects: "Developers won't build if they don't think their projects will be filled".

Consider Manchester - and just imagine what it's population alone might be come 2026-27 if everything in the pipeline is built out (especially the big towers on the riverfront). Latter half of the decade might honestly surprise us by just how large the population numbers have gotten. 

Edited January 10, 2023 by I miss RVA

[Brent114]

I saw a ranking of the most “lonely” cities in the USA last week.  Richmond  came in at number 4.  The ranking is based on the number of households occupied by just 1 person. So not necessarily lonely (I’m not lonely and relish my empty house!). 

46.3 of all households in Richmond are occupied by a single person.  30% of the women here live alone.  The report wasn’t clear but I assume it is just for the city.  It explains how the built environment looks bigger than the population number suggests.  Washington DC was #1. Alexandria VA was #2.  St Louis was #3.   The 30% number for women is actually really impressive.  It’s the highest percentage in the country and implies that hiring practices and compensation in the area affords the women here the opportunity to live independently. 

If 46% of the houses here had more than one person in them, the population numbers would be very different. Pinteresting, I think. 
 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Brent114

[Brent114]

Here’s the link. 
I hope my numbers aren’t too far off lol

https://www.chamberofcommerce.org/loneliest-cities-in-america#:~:text=Which Cities are the Loneliest in America%3F 1,Richmond%2C Virginia ... 5 %235 Cincinnati%2C Ohio

[I miss RVA]

55 minutes ago, Brent114 said:

I saw a ranking of the most “lonely” cities in the USA last week.  Richmond  came in at number 4.  The ranking is based on the number of households occupied by just 1 person. So not necessarily lonely (I’m not lonely and relish my empty house!). 

46.3 of all households in Richmond are occupied by a single person.  30% of the women here live alone.  The report wasn’t clear but I assume it is just for the city.  It explains how the built environment looks bigger than the population number suggests.  Washington DC was #1. Alexandria VA was #2.  St Louis was #3.   The 30% number for women is actually really impressive.  It’s the highest percentage in the country and implies that hiring practices and compensation in the area affords the women here the opportunity to live independently. 

If 46% of the houses here had more than one person in them, the population numbers would be very different. Pinteresting, I think. 
 

I've often wondered about that - how Richmond often times APPEARS to be a LOT bigger than the actual population figures bear out. This explains a lot. And yeah - you're right - chop that 46% in half - and the city would see a nice bump-up in population, just converting 23% of households from one person to two people. Add a third person? Wow...

With all the development going on, I have to admit that's been one latent and rather HUGE fear that's been nestled in the back of my brain - My worst nightmare (and it's a real head-scratching scenario) is where the city goes through a full decade (of the 2020s) of EPIC EPIC EPIC development/building boom - Manchester with towers on the riverfront, towers downtown, apartment buildings galore being packed into Scott's other parts of Manchester, infill like the wazoooooo popping up in all areas of the city, Fulton-Rocketts further beefing up... the Diamond District starting to really pop... ditto City Center... Northside... South Richmond... East End... Museum District... new construction - and LOT OF IT - EVERY-FREAKIN-WHERE... (kinda like what's actually happening!)

And yet...  somehow... at the end of the decade... RVA's population goes up - MAYBE - by like 9,500... IF THAT! (Whereas ANY of our competitor cities - given the SAME level of physical development, would shoot up by anywhere from 60K to 130K over the same ten years...) 

At which time, I'm pulling every strand out of hair out of my aging head and screaming - HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE??????

GOD-FORBID A TRILLION TIMES OVER ON THIS ENTIRE SCENARIO!!! 

Edited January 11, 2023 by I miss RVA