RVA growth 1950 to today

[Oaktowntwinz]

On 2/5/2023 at 6:05 AM, rjp212 said:

I feel like Weldon always underestimates the cities.  

I agree.  The difference in projections is amazing. CoStar seems to have their fingers on the pulse of Richmond's future.  Then, I'm reminded of the Land Use, Housing and Demographic Analysis prepared by the Center for Urban and Regional Analysis @ VCU.  

They projected a 2037 population of 300,000 will result if the growth rate of 2010 - 2015 continues. This future population also results from Richmond growing at the projected rate of the metropolitan area.  A 2037 population of 260,000 results from continuation of 2000 to 2015 trends.  A 2.5% annual growth rate yields 340,000 residents in 2037.  

Who is right?  With the amount of construction taking place in the city, I'm guessing the Weldon is being overly conservative. 

[upzoningisgood]

50 minutes ago, Oaktowntwinz said:

I agree.  The difference in projections is amazing. CoStar seems to have their fingers on the pulse of Richmond's future.  Then, I'm reminded of the Land Use, Housing and Demographic Analysis prepared by the Center for Urban and Regional Analysis @ VCU.  

They projected a 2037 population of 300,000 will result if the growth rate of 2010 - 2015 continues. This future population also results from Richmond growing at the projected rate of the metropolitan area.  A 2037 population of 260,000 results from continuation of 2000 to 2015 trends.  A 2.5% annual growth rate yields 340,000 residents in 2037.  

Who is right?  With the amount of construction taking place in the city, I'm guessing the Weldon is being overly conservative. 

For context, Metro Nashville grew 2% annually over the last decade. Austin led the nation at 3% annual growth over the same time period. Personally, I lean more towards 260k. Pittsburgh is about the same size and has 300k people.  

[Child2021]

If you were very optimistic about city growth , then the latest ACS (U.S. Census) estimate works well into the favor of that theory.

 

 

[rjp212]

Interesting.   A lot of areas losing population, including Henrico, but Richmond is picking up speed and Chesterfield is now growing faster than Loudoun (?!)

[Flood Zone]

Chesterfield is still tapping into its western reaches, while Henrico has kind of hit bottom on those, which I suppose means the big stuff planned for the junction of 64/295 on the other side of the county makes sense.

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, rjp212 said:

Interesting.   A lot of areas losing population, including Henrico, but Richmond is picking up speed and Chesterfield is now growing faster than Loudoun (?!)

VERY interesting. This data might actually be pretty accurate - because it accounts for the city's stalled population growth in 2021 - which has been widely reported via a number of outlets. Which mean - if indeed the data IS accurate, then Richmond city really IS once again picking up steam in terms of population growth -- almost 2,000 new residents in 2022. Mind you, I'd REALLY like us to kick that up several notches - but even just conservatively - if we picked up a minimum of 2,000 new residents annually through the end of the decade (which would account for the next seven years) that would be at least 14,000 new residents over and above where we are now.

Edited March 31, 2023 by I miss RVA

[Richmonopoly]

It's wild to think we could pass Norfolk in the next year or two!  Never thought I'd love to see that happen...

[I miss RVA]

31 minutes ago, Richmonopoly said:

It's wild to think we could pass Norfolk in the next year or two!  Never thought I'd love to see that happen...

Same here! I'm 60, and my whole life, we've trailed Norfolk. I'm really excited because these updated numbers clearly show that RVA seems to have kick-started the growth after that stall put us in a holding pattern for a year or more. Would SO love it if we could ramp up the growth in the coming years and his 2030 with a really impressive number - particularly if the suspected 2020 undercount is corrected and the "lost" numbers (missed residents) are baked into the new totals. I keep hoping that will be the case - and if we can get the growth rolling over these next seven years, we could really see a robust total come 2030.

[Icetera]

On 3/31/2023 at 5:20 PM, Richmonopoly said:

It's wild to think we could pass Norfolk in the next year or two!  Never thought I'd love to see that happen...

I just looked back at one my many population estimate spreadsheets, this one being from 2018, and it has Richmond surpassing Norfolk in 2024 (246k vs 245k).  This was assuming Norfolk was seeing a minor population increase.  Despite both cities seemingly being under-counted in 2020, it looks like this prediction was at least still very close.

[Hike]

48 minutes ago, Icetera said:

I just looked back at one my many population estimate spreadsheets, this one being from 2018, and it has Richmond surpassing Norfolk in 2024 (246k vs 245k).  This was assuming Norfolk was seeing a minor population increase.  Despite both cities seemingly being under-counted in 2020, it looks like this prediction was at least still very close.

Noticed yesterday that Capital One is going back to the office for 3 days per week. I assume other companies have or are going to eventually do this. I wonder if any of the “back to the office” changes will affect how people choose where to live and does that help or hurt growth here or perhaps no effect? My assumption is some people have moved here to work remotely to NOVA, DC, etc. but this is just my perception, wonder what others see. 

Edited April 3, 2023 by Hike

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, Hike said:

Noticed yesterday that Capital One is going back to the office for 3 days per week. I assume other companies have or are going to eventually do this. I wonder if any of the “back to the office” changes will affect how people choose where to live and does that help or hurt growth here or perhaps no effect? My assumption is some people have moved here to work remotely to NOVA, DC, etc. but this is just my perception, wonder what others see. 

This is a really good question. Hard to say just yet. True, while some folks from NOVA/DC moved to metro Richmond bc they can work remotely, RVA was gaining population throughout the 2010s at a pretty robust clip as it was. I think there's enough momentum - plus Richmond is starting to pop up on the national scene more and more - so hopefully any negative impact will be negligible. 

Another question would be: if indeed remote work starts to change with businesses increasingly requiring workers to come into the office "x" number of days per week, how will that impact office requirements for companies that might be locating/moving to Richmond - particularly downtown office space? Not saying the office construction market is poised for any kind of takeoff, but I do wonder how a shift in "at the office" requirements might change the dynamic of office construction.

[Hike]

19 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

This is a really good question. Hard to say just yet. True, while some folks from NOVA/DC moved to metro Richmond bc they can work remotely, RVA was gaining population throughout the 2010s at a pretty robust clip as it was. I think there's enough momentum - plus Richmond is starting to pop up on the national scene more and more - so hopefully any negative impact will be negligible. 

Another question would be: if indeed remote work starts to change with businesses increasingly requiring workers to come into the office "x" number of days per week, how will that impact office requirements for companies that might be locating/moving to Richmond - particularly downtown office space? Not saying the office construction market is poised for any kind of takeoff, but I do wonder how a shift in "at the office" requirements might change the dynamic of office construction.

While I did find working from home during the pandemic was nice, I have to say, I missed the office some too.  There was something about the routine, getting out, seeing others, I missed that some. Recently I had an appointment with a small company  in Innsbrook and had to meet at their office. Their office was about 5-6 people,  between their office and maybe 1 other small office, the entire building was empty, 2 floors, atrium, it was a ghost town, was strange, like life had ended. I hope office makes a comeback, at least partially.  Maybe the 3 days at the office like CapOne is doing will work out. About the time you’re sick of the office you’ll have 4 days at home, 2 of them being the weekend and Monday and Friday working from home.

[Child2021]

Caroline County will likely be added to Metro Washington's Metropolitan area, after seeing the new OPM locality pay. We should regain Louisa county in the Federal Locality pay area, could have major implications for the area. 

Take a look for yourself: 

Federal Register :: General Schedule Locality Pay Areas

Map sourced directly from City Data.

[plain]

That's silly to me. Caroline should remain in the Richmond metro (as most development occurs in the southern part of the county). It's already established that Spotsylvania County is part of NOVA, and Caroline should be firmly part of the Richmond area.

[Flood Zone]

31 minutes ago, plain said:

That's silly to me. Caroline should remain in the Richmond metro (as most development occurs in the southern part of the county). It's already established that Spotsylvania County is part of NOVA, and Caroline should be firmly part of the Richmond area.

Agreed. I mean, Caroline is adjacent to Hanover.

Purely FWIW, this switcheroo as of today would net about 8K more people in the RVA metro (at least per Wikipedia).

[ancientcarpenter]

On 7/8/2023 at 10:12 AM, Child2021 said:

Caroline County will likely be added to Metro Washington's Metropolitan area, after seeing the new OPM locality pay. We should regain Louisa county in the Federal Locality pay area, could have major implications for the area. 

Take a look for yourself: 

Federal Register :: General Schedule Locality Pay Areas

Map sourced directly from City Data.

This chart can probably be better titled as "Where 80% of Americans live" - maybe even more with that much of California highlighted?

 

Edit: Looks like it is AT LEAST 83%:

"Nearly 83 percent of the U.S. population lived in an urban area in 2020, and that number is expected to reach nearly 90 percent by 2050.Feb 17, 2023" 

...and I think they don't use as wide of a net to calculate this number like the chart does. Therefore, one could easily assume it's 90% of America's population in that chart. Very cool to see.

https://www.statista.com/topics/7313/metropolitan-areas-in-the-us/#topicOverview

Edited July 10, 2023 by ancientcarpenter

[I miss RVA]

2 hours ago, Flood Zone said:

Agreed. I mean, Caroline is adjacent to Hanover.

Purely FWIW, this switcheroo as of today would net about 8K more people in the RVA metro (at least per Wikipedia).

I'll take a net gain of 8K to the RVA metro's overall population!! 

[Child2021]

Looks like we haven't gained or lost any counties in this round of Metro delineations, which is good. Our neighbors to the Southeast that can't seem to catch a break  have lost  Franklin City, Southampton county, and have gained Surry county, and the Metro population has went actually down from 1,806,840 ---> 1,787,188.  Jesus, New Orleans has actually dropped below 1 Million since they lost St Tammy Parish. I want to note that these counties are mainly added to Metros based on commuting patterns. 

Link:  OMB Bulletin No. 23-01 (whitehouse.gov)

[Brent114]

I don’t place any stock  in these numbers.  Aside  from the federal funding tied to size, it’s irrelevant to the lived experience of a city if a county 40 miles away drops form it’s MSA.   
 

Norfolk/Virginia Beach “lost” population but nothing about the metro has changed at all.  Charlotte gained population, but nothing about the metro changed at all.   The same number of people are still living within the same radios as before, it’s just called something else now. 
 

Franklin is nearly 60 miles from Norfolk.   If a tree falls in Franklin, does anyone in Norfolk hear it?   

Edited July 23, 2023 by Brent114

[plain]

8 hours ago, Brent114 said:

I don’t place any stock  in these numbers.  Aside  from the federal funding tied to size, it’s irrelevant to the lived experience of a city if a county 40 miles away drops form it’s MSA.   
 

Norfolk/Virginia Beach “lost” population but nothing about the metro has changed at all.  Charlotte gained population, but nothing about the metro changed at all.   The same number of people are still living within the same radios as before, it’s just called something else now. 
 

Franklin is nearly 60 miles from Norfolk.   If a tree falls in Franklin, does anyone in Norfolk hear it?   

Franklin is actually 43 miles from Norfolk, which makes it closer to Norfolk than Williamsburg is (and yes I realize the 'Burg is close to Newport News). 

 

I don't see the logic in swapping Franklin and Southampton for Surry. I mean Southampton is mostly rural, but Surry is rural AF!! They could've just kept the 2 former and still added the latter.

Edited July 24, 2023 by plain

[Child2021]

Weldon Cooper expects that the Metro Area population will be at 1.64 million in 2030. 

Link: Metro Areas Will Grow Larger, Rural Areas Will Grow Older (virginia.edu)

[I miss RVA]

45 minutes ago, Child2021 said:

Weldon Cooper expects that the Metro Area population will be at 1.64 million in 2030. 

Link: Metro Areas Will Grow Larger, Rural Areas Will Grow Older (virginia.edu)

Interesting take - are they projecting Hampton Roads to shrink? Or are they not factoring in the Peninsula? Check out this nugget from the article:

The projections predict Northern Virginia will be home to well over a third of the state’s residents with a share of 37% of the population, or about 3.4 million people. The next largest region will be the Richmond area at 18%, or 1.64 million people, and Hampton Roads at 17% or 1.59 million people.

Soooooo... I thought Hampton Roads was at 1.8 million currently. What am I missing? Maybe it's factoring in significant decreases in Hampton Roads from Norfolk during the decade of the '20s?

Interesting to note they're projecting Richmond to be above 245K by 2030 - while Norfolk is forecast to be at 229K. I knew we were poised to pass them - but wow... 

Something else: I might have to live to be 100 to see it (2062) - but if these projections are even remotely accurate (and particularly if actual figures EXCEED what is forecast) then there's an OUTSIDE chance that metro RVA could crack 2 million population in my lifetime. Again... I'll prolly have to live to be 100 - but we're talking another 40 or so years... so I guess anything's possible.

Edited September 15, 2023 by I miss RVA

[Flood Zone]

9 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

Or are they not factoring in the Peninsula?

That's the answer. Looks like they're expecting population to migrate to the penisula.

Holy smokes, Bath and Highland counties are essentially falling off the map if these projections hold.

[HRVA]

It appears they are excluding Williamsburg, James City County, and York County. Excluding those, their projections total 1,597,211. Including the Williamsburg area the total is 1,775,524 (this still excludes the NC counties that are part of the MSA).

[eandslee]

I wonder what’s caused the population growth in Richmond proper to flatline while the burbs are booming with growth?  Is it that there aren’t enough new places to live or some other factor such as politics, tax rates, City services (or lack thereof), etc.?  Anyone know?  Reference the article below from Axios:

https://www.axios.com/local/richmond/2023/09/20/richmond-population-increase-census