spenser1058

LOCAL and Florida Politics

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Since our other politics thread seems to have become a Trump seminar, I'm trying again and hoping we can keep to local and Florida races here.

First off, Democratic candidate for governor Andrew Gillum has picked WP businessman Chris King as his running mate.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/273993-gillum-king-lg

From Florida Politics

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If you want to vote in this year's general election, make sure you are registered by OCTOBER 9. 

Florida has probably never had such a clear choice in differing outlooks between candidates for governor. "There's no difference between candidates" sure ain't true this year.

Decide which Florida you want to live in - GO VOTE.

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Latest poll from the Florida Chamber shows Democrat Andrew Gillum leading Republican Ron DeSantis for governor 47-43.

The Chamber leans right so if there's a bias it is likely to lean in that direction. The MoE is not mentioned.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/406275-poll-gillum-leads-desantis-by-4-points-in-florida-governor-race?amp

From The Hill

 

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15 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

Latest poll from the Florida Chamber shows Democrat Andrew Gillum leading Republican Ron DeSantis for governor 47-43.

The Chamber leans right so if there's a bias it is likely to lean in that direction. The MoE is not mentioned.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/406275-poll-gillum-leads-desantis-by-4-points-in-florida-governor-race?amp

From The Hill

 

There was also a SurveyUSA poll (has predicted 90% of races correctly, A rating on 538.com) that had Gillum up by the exact same margin. 

The press coverage for DeSantis has generally been bad, while the press coverage for Gillum has been good. This can of course and likely will change and fluctuate as we get closer to election day.

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Latest Rasmussen poll puts Andrew Gillum ahead of Ron DeSantis by 6 points. Rasmussen definitely leans right (and only uses landline survey so they skew toward older voters ) so this is kind of YUGE.

No complacency though, this is not a sure thing by any means, especially for Dems. Get ready to GO VOTE - absentee ballots start going out in just a couple of weeks.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/406738-rasmussen-poll-gillum-leads-desantis-by-6-points-in-florida-governors-race?amp

From The Hill

Edited by spenser1058

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Another day, another poll: Gillum once again leads DeSantis 50-44 in the Reuters-Ipsos-UVA poll. I would think they're somewhat neutral.

I'm trying to remember a recent race for guv that featured the Dem with this kind of lead. Hope it holds.

An FAU poll projects a tighter race, 41-39 Gillum.

The FAU poll was conducted by landline (which typically skews older;) the Reuters poll was online (which generally skews younger.)

Scott leads Nelson 38-36 (within the 2.5%.)


http://www.orlando Sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-florida-governor-desantis-gillum-fau-poll-september-20180918-story.html

From the Sentinel

UPDATE: A St Pete Times version of this has similar conclusions but different numbers. Stay tuned.

Edited by spenser1058

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Latest US Senate poll:

Bill "Rocket Man" Nelson 53%

Rick "Skeletor" Scott           47%

The poll is from Quinnipiac, generally considered reliable. (MoE +\- 4%)

More problematic for Sen. Nelson is an AARP/Bendixen poll showing Gov. Scott with a lead among Hispanic voters over 50, especially among Cuban-Americans.


http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/political-pulse/os-nelson-scott-poll-20180925-story.html

From the Sentinel

https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2018/09/25/scott-leads-nelson-florida-838621

From Politico

Edited by spenser1058
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Update: Latest NBC News/Marist poll also has Gillum and Nelson leading but among likely voters still within the MoE:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna913046

From  NBC News

Florida still remains basically a tie at the statewide level so it's gonna be critical to vote. Mail-in ballots are going out shortly so be ready and GO VOTE!

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

Latest US Senate poll:

Bill "Rocket Man" Nelson 53%

Rick "Skeletor" Scott           47%

The poll is from Quinnipiac, generally considered reliable. (MoE +\- 4%

Very interesting that the number one concern among the respondents- male, female, white, black, Hispanic was healthcare... I would not have guessed that. And 95% of the respondents have made their minds up and say they will not change their votes. Also, Independents don't like Scott even more than they disapprove of Trump. That does not bode well for him.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2572

1 hour ago, spenser1058 said:

Update: Latest NBC News/Marist poll also has Gillum and Nelson leading but among likely voters still within the MoE

Basically the same numbers as above, but Scott does better in this poll with blacks and men. I also note the numbers skew better for Nelson when you move from "all adults" to ""all voter" to "likely voters". If it hasn't been said before, turnout is key.

http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBC News_Marist Poll_FL Annotated Questionnaire_1809241141.pdf

FWIW, the Q poll pushed undecided voters to decide, the Marist poll did not which accounts for the difference in the top line numbers.

6 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

More problematic for Sen. Nelson is an AARP/Bendixen poll showing Gov. Scott with a lead among Hispanic voters over 50, especially among Cuban-Americans.

I don't mean to poop on anyone's work- and this btw is a very nicely presented piece of work- but it only shows the huge difference in the Cuban vote and the PR vote and, again, the importance of GOTV for both sides. It is not any different than it has been in every other poll. 

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000166-1101-d789-a9e7-51971a670000

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@AmIReal, I appreciate your skill to pull apart polls like these, plus all the other national rankings and such that are posted here, and make the statistical intricacies easy to understand for those of us who don't live in that world.  Thank you!

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10 hours ago, smileguy said:

@AmIReal, I appreciate your skill to pull apart polls like these, plus all the other national rankings and such that are posted here, and make the statistical intricacies easy to understand for those of us who don't live in that world.  Thank you!

Why, thank you smileguy. I'm glad my OCD can be useful. 

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For more than 20 years, there hasn't been much serious talk about Democrats taking back control of the Florida Legislature. 

This year there is the best chance in decades for real gains, but actual control is still unlikely on either side of the Capitol:

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/09/28/can-democrats-take-back-the-florida-legislature-its-possible-but-not-likely/

From the St Pete Times

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Latest Chamber poll (if it leans, it's usually to the right) has Gillum leading DeSantis 48-42. It's a 2-point bump for Andrew over the last Chamber poll and was in the field as late as 9/24.

It's a good sign for Andrew. We're waiting to see if an anti-Semitic comment made by his running mate Chris King in his Harvard days hits its target after being posted by DeSantis. Florida has a significant Jewish population   whose older members tend to reliably vote Democratic (about 70% for the entire community.)

Hopefully, King will get down to south Florida with his mea culpas (he's already apologized for saying something stupid in the heat of a campus election contest) and show his progressive bona fides (which appear legit.)

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/276101-chamber-poll-andrew-gillum-holds-6-point-lead-over-ron-desantis

From Florida Politics

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/28/us/politics/florida-governor-texts-jewish.amp.html

From the New York Times

Also: A response from the community relations director of Orlando's Jewish Federation:

Jewish leader:  Andrew Gillum and Chris King are not a threat to Jews
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/os-op-jewish-leader-andrew-gillum-chris-king-are-not-threat-to-jews-20180928-story.html

From the Sentinel

Edited by spenser1058

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3 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

For more than 20 years, there hasn't been much serious talk about Democrats taking back control of the Florida Legislature.

I assume you already saw the news on State Senator Hukill dropping out due to a terminal cancer diagnosis. That may throw an unexpected seat into disarray.

http://www.news-journalonline.com/news/20180928/state-sen-dorothy-hukill-exits-race-citing-cancers-return

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CNN believes polling is moving towards the fundamentals in the Senate race between Bill Nelson and Rick Scott, with the benefit going toward the Democrats.

The fact that Nelson finally began televising ads after the primary election has no doubt been helpful.

Latest Marist poll 48-45 Nelson (still w/in MoE but trending toward Nelson.)

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/09/29/politics/poll-of-the-week-florida-senate-bill-nelson/index.html

From CNN

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In Orange County, voters who have already requested mail ballots should get them next week.

If you'd like to vote by mail, you can still request a ballot.

Are you registered to vote? If not, you need to register by OCTOBER 9 to vote in the 2018 General Election.

Be a part of history - GO VOTE

 Need help? If you live in Orange County, the Supervisor of Elections website is helpful and easy to use even for tech dummies like me.

https://www.ocfelections.com/

Our Supervisor of Elections, Bill Cowles, is one of the best there is. We don't have the disasters some of our friends in south Florida regularly encounter. 

Edited by spenser1058
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In the race for FL House District 44, Democrat Geraldine Thompson is running against incumbent Bobby Olszewski. Geraldine is one of the most principled legislators I know (she's been there before but term-limited out), and I'm a little sad I didn't move out there so I could bote for her.

The  district is in West Orange County and leans slightly Republican. Nevertheless, Hillary won there two years ago. That's a huge change out there. Also, my cousin Rusty from Ocoee, a Republican, has endorsed her along with several others.

Florida House District 44: Where Bobby Olszewski, Geraldine Thompson stand
http://bit.ly/2DOwxGG

From the Sentinel

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As mail ballots begin to circulate, PPP (leans left) finds Nelson leading by 4 points in the Senate race while St.Pete Polls (not sure, but the sponsor Florida Politics, leans right) found a tied race at 47-47.

Aggregator Real Clear Politics (leans right) had found the race tied but an average of recent polls has been turning toward Nelson (about the same time as the Nelson's campaign ads first went up.)

Florida races at the top of the ticket are almost always close - GO VOTE

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/276262-nelson-leading-scott-four-poll

From Florida Politics

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Andrew Gillum was endorsed today by Mayor Buddy as well as the mayors of Tampa and St. Pete.

Perhaps most interesting to our little crew is that Andrew made a nod to high speed rail in his speech.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/political-pulse/os-gillum-mayor-endorse-20181004-story,amp.html

From the Sentinel

Meanwhile, the New York Times weighs in on both Gillum and DeSantis:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/04/us/politics/florida-desantis-governor.amp.html

Edited by spenser1058

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