spenser1058

LOCAL and Florida Politics

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Don't Forget - Tomorrow and Tuesday are the last days to register to vote in November's general election.

If you haven't voted in a while and aren't sure you're still registered, it's easy to check.

For Orange County residents:

https://www.ocfelections.com/

                                        GO VOTE

Edited by spenser1058

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I mailed my ballot back in today - don't forget to send yours also!

Remember, if you need to register, you need to do it today or tomorrow to be in time for the November general election.

Turns out, it's really easy to figure out all those constitutional amendments. The Tampa Bay Times, Florida's largest newspaper, recommends "YES" on Amendment 4 and "NO" on all the others. Easy!

https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/editorials/all-the-times-election-recommendations-in-one-place-20181006/?template=amp

Questions? Just let me know.

 

Edited by spenser1058

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Vote YES on 1, 2, and 5 as well, they will help restrict out of control spending . Also remember amendments need 60% to pass. Yes is to make a change, No is no change from current law, always, no matter what anybody tells you.

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25 minutes ago, aent said:

Vote YES on 1, 2, and 5 as well, they will help restrict out of control spending .

I certainly respect your opinion, but I disagree. Out of control spending should be done via the election process. You vote for people that match your spending priorities.  Spending should be more fluid then it would be with an amendment. I'll vote "no" on those items.

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Today is the LAST DAY to register to vote in the November election. 

Don't miss out. Orange County residents can check here to make sure you're registered:

https://www.ocfelections.com/

                                        GO VOTE

Edited by spenser1058

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Good news for Gillum fans: I just got a visit from some Andrew canvassers, making sure I was voting.

As a "supervoter" (I haven't missed an election in decades), it's critical to make sure folks like me are not impaired from getting to the polls and, as a loyal Dem, are committed to voting for Andrew.

It's a great sign when campaigns knock on my door to make sure I did the deed. In 2016, I never heard a peep from Hillary and we know how that turned out. 

I also liked that Andrew's crew was working off an iPad, so it looks like there's some serious GOTV investment going on. That. bodes well for our chances.

 

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Early Voting is underway NOW

Where you can vote if you live in OC:

https://www.ocfelections.com/EarlyVotingApps/EarlyVotingSites.aspx

You can vote from 9am-7pm until Sunday, November 4 or go hang out with JFW on Election Day, but...

                                GO VOTE!

Edited by spenser1058
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Nate Silver at 538 (about as reliable when it comes to interpreting polls as it gets) is saying Nelson now has a 3-1 shot at beating Rick "Voldemort" Scott, probably the most amoral politician in modern Florida history.

Every time Nelson has been up for reelection, the pundits, who find him a tad boring, say he can't survive the GOP onslaught and he wins anyway (the only race he ever lost since '72 was the primary for governor to another Democratic powerhouse, Lawton Chiles, in 1990.)

Truth be told, Nelson is more conservative than I'd like, but he's kept at least one statewide seat blue when the Florida Democratic Party was imploding everywhere else. He is also a true gentleman, something we desperately need more of in politics these days.

The clueless retirees of The Villages, most of whom have no clue about Florida politics but who will have 100% turnout, could still push Scott over the top. To be sure that doesn't happen, GO VOTE.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-have-a-whac-a-mole-problem-in-the-senate/

 

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I posed the question awhile back, apologies if someone answered and I missed it. If Gillum wins, won’t he have to go hat-in-hand, to a GOP legislature, in his hunger to make Florida Venezuela ? Other than providing solace for partisans, what would he be able to accomplish ?

As an example, North Carolinians elected a radical liberal to Governor in 2016. But as the GOP has a stranglehold in the legislature (similar to Florida) I cant think of the first thing he’s accomplished ... other than sueing the state for partisan advantages he cannot Effect democratically.

 

 

 

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Edit because I thought better of talking about politics. 

That CSP building sure looks nice with all that glass! 

Edited by dcluley98
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Andrew Gillum is less likely to turn Florida into Venezuela than the North Carolina Legislature is likely to turn the Tarheel State into Hungary.

Now that we have that out of the way, Florida's government does in fact have a weak governor system (a relic of Reconstruction and efforts to keep blacks from acquiring political power, that's not unusual in the South.)

Nevertheless, five major things come out of a Gillum victory:

• Keeping the Legislature from some of their worst impulses like allowing ALEC and Marion Hammer to control government (while the GOP will retain both chambers, they are likely to lose seats and will be unlikely to override vetoes);

• A Democratic governor will make appointments to boards throughout the state, thus preventing some of the GOP's worst efforts like appointees with blatant conflicts of interest from voting at CFEA and SJRWMD;

• Rick Scott's court-packing scheme in his final hours in office has been declared unconstitutional but it will take years to balance the scales in the state's judiciary (a Democratic governor also makes those appointments);

• Gillum will also be able to keep the Legislature from some of their worst efforts at gerrymandering that led to districts so unrepresentative the courts had to step in.

• He, as Tallahassee's mayor, understands the current Legislature has made a mockery of home rule that is part of the state's constitution and will attempt to walk that back or at least stop it;

Finally, in a majority Democratic state, the GOP has controlled the levers of government for 20 years. Many urban voters have abandoned any hope of believing state government represents them. This will reenergize two-party government in the state at long last.

Edited by spenser1058

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21 minutes ago, spenser1058 said:

Andrew Gillum is less likely to turn Florida into Venezuela than the North Carolina Legislature is likely to turn the Tarheel State into Hungary.

Now that we have that out of the way, Florida's government does in fact have a weak governor system (a relic of Reconstruction and efforts to keep blacks from acquiring political power, that's not unusual in the South.)

Nevertheless, five major things come out of a Gillum victory:

• Keeping the Legislature from some of their worst impulses like allowing ALEC and Marion Hammer to control government (while the GOP will retain both chambers, they are likely to lose seats and will be unlikely to override vetoes);

• A Democratic governor will make appointments to boards throughout the state, thus preventing some of the GOP's worst efforts like appointees with blatant conflicts of interest from voting at CFEA and SJRWMD;

• Rick Scott's court-packing scheme in his final hours in office has been declared unconstitutional but it will take years to balance the scales in the state's judiciary (a Democratic governor also makes those appointments);

• Gillum will also be able to keep the Legislature from some of their worst efforts at gerrymandering that led to districts so unrepresentative the courts had to step in.

• He, as Tallahassee's mayor, understands the current Legislature has made a mockery of home rule that is part of the state's constitution and will attempt to walk that back or at least stop it;

Finally, in a majority Democratic state, the GOP has controlled the levers of government for 20 years. Many urban voters have abandoned any hope of believing state government represents them. This will reenergize two-party government in the state at long last.

Hush your mouth about Hungary. It is a dying Europe’s hope in that it stands as a bulwark against self-hatred. Reportedly, NC followed its lead in affording privacy and protection against the hordes, in North Carolina’s case, LGBTQ demanding men’s access to women’s facilities, seeking to dictate bathroom policies to private business owners and angling for leverage over job providers through specious “anti-discrimination” ordinances. 

As an aside, Budapest is way cooler than all but a handful of US cities and it’s Parliament House may be the most beautiful building in the world.

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2 minutes ago, Dale said:

Hush your mouth about Hungary. It is a dying Europe’s hope in that it stands as a bulwark against self-hatred. Reportedly, NC followed its lead in affording privacy and protection against the hordes, in North Carolina’s case, LGBTQ demanding men’s access to women’s facilities, seeking to dictate bathroom policies to private business owners and angling for leverage over job providers through specious “anti-discrimination” ordinances. 

As an aside, Budapest is way cooler than all but a handful of US cities and it’s Parliament House may be the most beautiful building in the world.

Yep, it's all about bathrooms.

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30 minutes ago, spenser1058 said:

Yep, it's all about bathrooms.

... that and the myth of homosexuals being fired for being homosexuals.

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8 hours ago, Dale said:

... that and the myth of homosexuals being fired for being homosexuals.

There you go again - here are two cases where courts ruled that in fact they were fired for being gay:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna851681

Thankfully, in the 2nd and 7th circuits, that should help alleviate the problem. Those rulings, however, do not necessarily apply in the other circuits. 

In fact, in 28 states you can still be fired for your sexual orientation unless jurisdictions within those states pass anti-discrimination ordinances.

Further, AG Jeff Sessions has made clear that he believes it's perfectly legal to fire employees for being gay.

 

Meanwhile, Politico reports the Trump administration is concerned about the Florida elections. Mac Stipanovich, grand high poobah of Florida Republicans, believes they have reason to worry:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna851681

The upshot: it's gonna be a battleground and to get the results you want to see, GO VOTE!

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10 hours ago, Dale said:

I posed the question awhile back, apologies if someone answered and I missed it. If Gillum wins, won’t he have to go hat-in-hand, to a GOP legislature, in his hunger to make Florida Venezuela ? Other than providing solace for partisans, what would he be able to accomplish ?

As an example, North Carolinians elected a radical liberal to Governor in 2016. But as the GOP has a stranglehold in the legislature (similar to Florida) I cant think of the first thing he’s accomplished ... other than sueing the state for partisan advantages he cannot Effect democratically.

 

 

 

A radical liberal governor? Is that what you on the right fringes are calling moderate Democrats these days? It’s interesting to witness conservatives taking a hard right turn off a cliff into Trump land attempt to cast others as extreme.

In light of the MAGA bomber, it hardly matters.

Edited by prahaboheme
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I highly doubt there is a non-zero sample size of bigots firing people for any particular race/creed/sex/disease/orientation.   Bigots are bigots. Nutjobs are nutjobs. Let's not try to categorize anything into two red and blue boxes or confuse the matters. 

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An interesting look at the numbers in Florida's registered voters. Especially interesting is the focus on Orange and Osceola counties, where the blue wave has been more like a tsunami over the past 20 years:

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/279073-numbers-count-the-ways-voters-have-changed

From Florida Politics

None of that matters of course, unless you actually GO VOTE!

Early voting continues 9am-7pm today.

Edited by spenser1058
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1 hour ago, spenser1058 said:

An interesting look at the numbers in Florida's registered voters. Especially interesting is the focus on Orange and Osceola counties, where the blue wave has been more like a tsunami over the past 20 years:

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/279073-numbers-count-the-ways-voters-have-changed

From Florida Politics

None of that matters of course, unless you actually GO VOTE!

Early voting continues 9am-7pm today.

The blue wave appears to be washing over Seminole and Polk. The Nov elections will be quite fun to watch.

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16 minutes ago, prahaboheme said:

The blue wave appears to be washing over Seminole and Polk. The Nov elections will be quite fun to watch.

Yes, a couple of notes on that. First, Stephanie Murphy, who many thought won in a fluke when she tossed John Mica out of office (had he brought his thinking out of the 1950's on social issues, he likely never would have lost), seems to be headed for a healthy-sized win against popular Republican Mike Miller.  That district went from red to deep purple in a surprisingly short period.

Another article (also from Florida Politics, I think) notes that Lakeland is becoming more urban (and thus progressive) in its thinking. The City now has its own Pride fest and the Congressional race over there is surprisingly tight.

The times, they are a changin' (now if Publix will just get the memo.)

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17 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

There you go again - here are two cases where courts ruled that in fact they were fired for being gay:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna851681

Thankfully, in the 2nd and 7th circuits, that should help alleviate the problem. Those rulings, however, do not necessarily apply in the other circuits. 

In fact, in 28 states you can still be fired for your sexual orientation unless jurisdictions within those states pass anti-discrimination ordinances.

Further, AG Jeff Sessions has made clear that he believes it's perfectly legal to fire employees for being gay.

 

Meanwhile, Politico reports the Trump administration is concerned about the Florida elections. Mac Stipanovich, grand high poobah of Florida Republicans, believes they have reason to worry:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna851681

The upshot: it's gonna be a battleground and to get the results you want to see, GO VOTE!

Two people ? I’ll bet more Christian bakers, florists and wedding planners have bee ruined by vindictive gays.

17 hours ago, prahaboheme said:

A radical liberal governor? Is that what you on the right fringes are calling moderate Democrats these days? It’s interesting to witness conservatives taking a hard right turn off a cliff into Trump land attempt to cast others as extreme.

In light of the MAGA bomber, it hardly matters.

Thankfully, no one died. But hell, you’re an Orlandoan. You should know how deadly a Democrat with a gun can be.

 

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11 hours ago, dcluley98 said:

I highly doubt there is a non-zero sample size of bigots firing people for any particular race/creed/sex/disease/orientation.   Bigots are bigots. Nutjobs are nutjobs. Let's not try to categorize anything into two red and blue boxes or confuse the matters. 

Heck, I doubt that the two gays who were fired for being gay were actually fired for being gay. For Pete’s sake, who wants to be called a bigot ?

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