LOCAL and Florida Politics

[AmIReal]

15 minutes ago, Dale said:

You should know how deadly a Democrat with a gun can be.

That's a stupid f**kin comment. Do you even live here?

[spenser1058]

38 minutes ago, AmIReal said:

That's a stupid f**kin comment. Do you even live here?

Dale lives in North Carolina. And I have to thank him. Habit is a hard thing to break. For some time, I've been a part of a group that heads up to Boone and Linville most years to watch the leaves do their thing (acting like true Floridians.)

He's reinforced just how unwelcome we are so next year we're going to head up to Virginia instead. It's a few more hours, but thankfully the Commonwealth seems to be embracing the 21st century with a little more enthusiasm of late than the Tarheel State.

On a related note, the remains of Matthew Shepard, who was beaten and left to die in Wyoming in 1998 because he was gay, have been laid to rest in Washington's National Cathedral. His parents have been afraid to bury the remains all these years for fear the grave would be desecrated. Kudos to the Episcopal Church for reaffirming that Love is Love.

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2018/10/26/18027342/matthew-shepherd-gene-robinson-interring-lgbtq-christians

From Vox

Edited October 27, 2018 by spenser1058

[TRENCH]

On ‎10‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 8:34 PM, spenser1058 said:

There you go again - here are two cases where courts ruled that in fact they were fired for being gay:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna851681

Thankfully, in the 2nd and 7th circuits, that should help alleviate the problem. Those rulings, however, do not necessarily apply in the other circuits. 

In fact, in 28 states you can still be fired for your sexual orientation unless jurisdictions within those states pass anti-discrimination ordinances.

Further, AG Jeff Sessions has made clear that he believes it's perfectly legal to fire employees for being gay.

 

I can agree with your post based on the fact that I did a interest group  research paper on this topic literally a week ago.  not so sure whats so hard to understand that a majority of the population still does not favor towards the LGBT and are willing to tear down any equality progress that has been made. 

[aent]

2 hours ago, W7edwin said:

I can agree with your post based on the fact that I did a interest group  research paper on this topic literally a week ago.  not so sure whats so hard to understand that a majority of the population still does not favor towards the LGBT and are willing to tear down any equality progress that has been made. 

a majority? thats ridiculous, even far right individuals like Bill O'Reilly have been supportive of the right to marry and such. I want things to be equal, I don't favor the anti-discrimination laws to say we need to protect the LGBT community because its a strong community, they can protect themselves and it creates its own form of discrimination, its far from eliminated racism with all the racism protection statutes (quite to the contrary, I think its held them down)

[spenser1058]

More on the tight race for Congress in a district which includes parts of Lakeland and East Hillsborough County:

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/28/winner-and-loser-of-the-week-in-florida-politics-46/

From the St. Pete Times

Lakeland is an amazing town (very much like Orlando/Winter Park before Glenn Martin and Walt arrived.) It's good to see the change.

[prahaboheme]

21 hours ago, Dale said:

Two people ? I’ll bet more Christian bakers, florists and wedding planners have bee ruined by vindictive gays.

Thankfully, no one died. But hell, you’re an Orlandoan. You should know how deadly a Democrat with a gun can be.

 

Wow. Disgusting.

[spenser1058]

Latest NYT poll for governor has Gillum ahead 48-43 with a 4% margin of error.

That puts Gillum slightly ahead but still lots of undecideds so GO VOTE!

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/29/new-york-times-poll-andrew-gillum-48-ron-desantis-45/

From the St. Pete Times

[JFW657]

Think I might try to vote early this time. Sounds like there could be long lines on voting day. Maybe give it a try on Thursday.

[spenser1058]

2 minutes ago, JFW657 said:

Think I might try to vote early this time. Sounds like there could be long lines on voting day. Maybe give it a try on Thursday.

When I did early voting on Kaley I almost always went right to the counter with no wait. Voting by mail is even easier and you can even verify on the OC Elections website they got your ballot back.

Best of all, you don't have to pay return postage anymore!

[spenser1058]

The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Mayor Gillum ahead by 3.2 points.

Meanwhile, both Presidents Trump and Obama will be on the stump in Florida this week for the gubernatorial candidates.

This is gonna be close... GO VOTE!

[spenser1058]

Great job everyone - early voter turnout in OC has already beat 2014 and we're only halfway through.

Tell your friends to GO VOTE!

UCF has early voting again, too!

http://bit.ly/2Oaq20E

From the Sentinel

[AmIReal]

7 hours ago, JFW657 said:

Think I might try to vote early this time. Sounds like there could be long lines on voting day. Maybe give it a try on Thursday.

Just a reminder to those who plan to early vote. Please remember early voting closes on Saturday, November 3rd. You can't vote on the Sunday and Monday prior to the election. Yes, there will be lines on Tue the 6th.

[spenser1058]

1 hour ago, AmIReal said:

Just a reminder to those who plan to early vote. Please remember early voting closes on Saturday, November 3rd. You can't vote on the Sunday and Monday prior to the election. Yes, there will be lines on Tue the 6th.

That's not true everywhere. It depends on the county. Orange County will be available on Sunday the 4th (not Monday):

https://www.ocfelections.com/

The GOP had halted the final Sunday early voting to keep "Souls To the Polls" voters (African-American congregations) from voting. Thankfully, that little ruse got overthrown.

They had also shut down early voting on college campuses but the UCF location is also back (if you notice a pattern of which voters were being targeted, you're right.)

Uber-Republican Lake County will be unavailable but Orange, Osceola and ever-more-purple Seminole will be open, I believe.

To be sure, check the website for your local Supervisor of Elections in the county you live in.

Edited October 30, 2018 by spenser1058

[AmIReal]

Thank you for the correction and I'm pleased to hear that. We showed up for primary voting on the Saturday before the election and were told it was not available. I'm happy they have addressed that issue for the General.

 

But why wait...!

Edited October 30, 2018 by AmIReal

[spenser1058]

Nate Silver's 538 continues to see Andrew Gillum ahead by an average of 4.6% in the Florida governor race.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/governor/

Make it happen the way you want -GO VOTE!

Early voting 'til 7pm and then you can trick or treat with your "I Voted" sticker proudly displayed on your costume!

[spenser1058]

New Telemundo poll of Florida Hispanics breaks strongly for Gillum and Nelson:

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/279638-telemundo-poll-hispanics-favoring-andrew-gillum-bill-nelson

From Florida Politics

Traditionally, Cuban-Americans have been fiercely Republican (although that's changing as younger generations are voting;)

Other Hispanic groups, especially Puerto Ricans, tend to vote Democratic more often. 

Like many younger folks (Puerto Ricans and other Hispanics are often younger as a group than other demographics,) turnout is often a challenge but there are signs younger voters may be more likely to vote this year than in previous midterms.

                                           GO VOTE!

[spenser1058]

All you Parrotheads will want to zoom down the Turnpike Saturday for. Jimmy Buffett concert in support of Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson.

It's at 2pm in WPB.

Details:

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/279603-jimmy-buffett-gillum-nelson

From Florida Politics

But first:     GO VOTE!

[spenser1058]

Peter Schorsch of Florida Politics is calling the race for Gillum. Peter's shtick is to follow the money (in order to prop up his blogs) and that has made him mostly lean right in a state where the GOP has controlled just about everything for 20 years.

As a result, I tend to think he's on to something.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/279577-why-i-believe-andrew-gillum-is-about-to-bring-it-home

As we learned in 2000 and 2016, it ain't over 'til it's over, so... GO VOTE!

[spenser1058]

Are Florida's NeverTrumpers going blue on Tuesday? Former GOP congressman David Jolly thinks so:

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/414164-ex-gop-lawmaker-i-voted-for-gillum-over-desantis?amp

From The Hill

Whichever way you're going, GO VOTE!

[AmIReal]

1 hour ago, spenser1058 said:

calling the race for Gillum

Spenser, I've probably been around this about as long as you have and I believe nobody should call this race early. Scott has won 2 races by the hair of his teeth and his campaign knows where to find voters. There is a lot of time and game to go and it seems each side is well armed to get their voters out. 

GOTV

[spenser1058]

13 minutes ago, AmIReal said:

Spenser, I've probably been around this about as long as you have and I believe nobody should call this race early. Scott has won 2 races by the hair of his teeth and his campaign knows where to find voters. There is a lot of time and game to go and it seems each side is well armed to get their voters out. 

GOTV

I always include that caveat that unless you vote you can't be sure.

I do have to say, however, that it feels different this time. Little things like the Gillum campaign going to extraordinary efforts to monitor my mail-in ballot. Pundits like Schorsch who normally lean right going the other way for the first time in years. Fundraising numbers for Dems setting new records (it almost always goes the other way.)

Democratic voters, as well as left-leaning NPA's often say there's no point in turning out because for 20 years in Florida the Repubs have always won. That's a self-fulfilling prophecy. This year, there seems to be a difference in the air if folks just GO VOTE.

I should add, btw, that while I expect Bill Nelson to win, I expect the Republicans to hold the US Senate (I am confident we are likely to take the House; the Florida Legislature will remain In GOP hands.)

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 1, 2018 by spenser1058

[spenser1058]

Politico reports on Democratic anxiety before the midterms conclude on Tuesday:

https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2018/11/04/2018-elections-democrats-2016-nightmares-midterms-960458

As always, the most effective remedy for anxiety is action - GO VOTE!

Don't forget - if every registered Democrat and blue-leaning NPA voter actually votes for Democrats (as a swing state, voting for third party candidates spells victory for Republicans*), we win the statewide races in Florida and a plurality of Congressional and legislative races. We lose because so many of us don't bother to vote. The change we want is in ourselves.

* If liberals in Florida, for example, hadn't voted for Ralph Nader in 2000 and supported the Democratic ticket, we would have elected President Al Gore. Similar votes in other swing states for candidates like Jill Stein gave us President Trump in 2016. In a swing state, if we don't vote Democratic, we're handing the election to the Republicans because of our razor-thin margins. Join Bernie Sanders in recognizing that the Democratic ticket offers the best chance for supporting a progressive agenda. 

Edited November 4, 2018 by spenser1058

[JFW657]

4 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

Politico reports on Democratic anxiety before the midterms conclude on Tuesday:

https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2018/11/04/2018-elections-democrats-2016-nightmares-midterms-960458

As always, the most effective remedy for anxiety is action - GO VOTE!

Don't forget - if every registered Democrat and blue-leaning NPA voter actually votes for Democrats (as a swing state, voting for third party candidates spells victory for Republicans*), we win the statewide races in Florida and a plurality of Congressional and legislative races. We lose because so many of us don't bother to vote. The change we want is in ourselves.

* If liberals in Florida, for example, hadn't voted for Ralph Nader in 2000 and supported the Democratic ticket, we would have elected President Al Gore. Similar votes in other swing states for candidates like Jill Stein gave us President Trump in 2016. In a swing state, if we don't vote Democratic, we're handing the election to the Republicans because of our razor-thin margins. Join Bernie Sanders in recognizing that the Democratic ticket offers the best chance for supporting a progressive agenda. 

Amazing how difficult it is to convince some people of that.

I actually think Bernie Sanders shares a little of the responsibility for Trump's ascendance because he divided the Democrats. Or at least, highlighted and exacerbated it. I remain convinced that if he hadn't run in the primaries, HRC would've won in November.

[spenser1058]

She may well have but the air of invincibility the Clintons have had since Bill left the presidency led them to a sense of entitlement that caused Hillary to run two less than perfect campaigns.

In 2008, it was the internecine squabbles between a bloated staff and totally missing the importance of the caucuses in the delegate count.

In 2016, it was trying too hard to expand on the number of states Obama won while missing the discontent in the Rust Belt (and, yes, she was likely the victim of some misogyny among more traditional Reagan Democrats there.) Even when the campaign tried to import staffers who had success in Obama's campaigns, the hubris rolled over them as well.

Don't get me wrong. I voted for Hillary in the primary and the general. I really believe she would have been a good president. Neither of her two presidential campaigns were textbook examples of how to do things, though, and I was probably less shocked than many at how things turned out.

In 2008, that didn't matter, because Obama was waiting in the wings. In 2016, the result was catastrophic.

Campaigns matter.

[aent]

7 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

* If liberals in Florida, for example, hadn't voted for Ralph Nader in 2000 and supported the Democratic ticket, we would have elected President Al Gore. Similar votes in other swing states for candidates like Jill Stein gave us President Trump in 2016. In a swing state, if we don't vote Democratic, we're handing the election to the Republicans because of our razor-thin margins. Join Bernie Sanders in recognizing that the Democratic ticket offers the best chance for supporting a progressive agenda. 

I think its fairly safe to say that the Gary Johnson voters would have went to Trump if you convinced them not to vote third party, he was much more aligned with their goals, and everyone i know who voted for him would have got to Trump without him on the ballot. You'd get the Jill Stein voters on the Hillary side, but you'd likely be adding 200,000 votes to Trump and 60,000 votes to Hillary. It would just have extended Trump's lead further. I was a third party voter, and I fit the above statement if I were forced against my will to vote between those 2.