LOCAL and Florida Politics

[spenser1058]

No voting today (except in some Panhandle counties that were devastated by the hurricane.)

Some counties have had more people already early vote or vote by mail than voted altogether in the 2014 midterms. 

That's phenomenal and it's awesome to see so many (of all ages and all walks of life) recognize that our Republic rises or falls because of us. We're not nearly as apathetic or cynical about our future as the nattering nabobs of negativism would have us believe.

If you've been holding out for the main event like Sentinel columnist Scott Maxwell, polls will be open Tuesday from 7am-7pm. You'll be required to vote at the polling place for your neighborhood's precinct.

After the polls close, election parties will be staged by several of the candidates and parties. While they're pretty much open to the public, due to security issues they may require an RSVP. For more info, check the candidates' websites (or use the contact numbers there to reach them.)

On Tuesday, if you haven't yet, GO VOTE!

https://www.ocfelections.com/

 

Edited November 5, 2018 by spenser1058

[spenser1058]

This time is different? A really good breakdown by the St. Pete Times about the "firsts" in this midterm election and why that may alter the electorate and the election - or not.

Also interesting is a confirmation that news stories about Florida often concentrate on the urban areas but miss the next tier of counties that may be even more important in picking up changes.

For example, Seminole and Sarasota counties are getting more purple while counties like Pasco, Hernando and Citrus are exploding with newly-minted Floridians who are likely to vote Republican.

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/11/04/floridas-2018-election-is-a-game-changer/

Edited November 5, 2018 by spenser1058

[spenser1058]

Final polls by both St. Pete Polls and NBC/Marist show leads by Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson over their respective opponents. 

The St Pete Polls are about as fresh as Polls get having been in the field Nov 3 and 4.

The Polls also show the Democrats even further ahead among those who have already voted so stay tuned.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/280161-st-pete-polls-andrew-gillum-holds-5-point-lead-heading-into-election-day

Meanwhile, don't forget to GO VOTE! tomorrow if you haven't already.

[spenser1058]

Woohoo! After "Souls To the Polls" Sunday, 5.1 million Floridians have already voted early or by mail. That blows away the 2014 midterms which were at 3.2 million. Democrats beat out Republicans by just under 25K in the early ballots, which may or not mean anything.

Meanwhile, rest up for tomorrow so you can vote if you haven't, party down afterward with the Parties and be ready for a long night to see who will run the House, Senate and lots of other races for governor. Thankfully, Florida is usually pretty quick but we have to wait 'till polls close west of the Apalachicola River at 8pm. GO VOTE!

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-early-voting-ends-20181105-story,amp.html

From the Sun Sentinel

[spenser1058]

Vox looks at who's voting in Florida this time, who's not and how that will affect the results:

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/policy-and-politics/2018/11/5/18052008/florida-governor-andrew-gillum-demographics-midterms

[prahaboheme]

24 minutes ago, spenser1058 said:

Woohoo! After "Souls To the Polls" Sunday, 5.1 million Floridians have already voted early or by mail. That blows away the 2014 midterms which were at 3.2 million. Democrats beat out Republicans by just under 25K in the early ballots, which may or not mean anything.

Meanwhile, rest up for tomorrow so you can vote if you haven't, party down afterward with the Parties and be ready for a long night to see who will run the House, Senate and lots of other races for governor. Thankfully, Florida is usually pretty quick but we have to wait 'till polls close west of the Apalachicola River at 8pm. GO VOTE!

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-early-voting-ends-20181105-story,amp.html

From the Sun Sentinel

It’s where those 20% of independent voters landed that makes the difference in early voting. As the article mentions, Dems crushed Reps in early voting in 2016 and lost the state anyway. With Trumps approval rating inching up lately, I wouldn’t bank on too many Republicans crossing over to vote for a blue candidate in this election.

[spenser1058]

1 minute ago, prahaboheme said:

It’s where those 20% of independent voters landed that makes the difference in early voting. As the article mentions, Dems crushed Reps in early voting in 2016 and lost the state anyway. With Trumps approval rating inching up lately, I wouldn’t bank on too many Republicans crossing over to vote for a blue candidate in this election.

You're right. The Republican Party is becoming a smaller and smaller group that is quite homogeneous in its outlook. Anyone who isn't a totally committed part of the base has mostly gone over to NPA (including well-known conservatives like George Will.)

The article I just posted dives deep into where Democrats are looking to get to 50% plus one.

[spenser1058]

Florida Politics notes 538 and Nate Silver still have Andrew Gillum with a 3 in 4 chance of winning (based on an aggregate of 51-47.)

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/280237-nate-silver-pegs-florida-gov-race-at-3-in-4-chance-of-andrew-gillum-victory

[spenser1058]

Most recent polling on Amendment 4 which would put Florida in the mainstream and restore voting rights to thise who have successfully completed their sentences, shows it is likely to pass with 65% voting "YES" (60% is required).

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/280233-amendment-4-poll

Feom Florida Politics

 

Edited November 5, 2018 by spenser1058

[spenser1058]

Latest Quinnipiac University survey has Sen Bill Nelson ahead by 7 points. 

https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2018/11/05/trump-close-out-midterm-961507

From Politico

[spenser1058]

The Odd Couple that may just break the code and bring Democrats back to power in Florida:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/us/politics/florida-andrew-gillum-ron-desantis-bill-nelson.amp.html

From the New York Times

[spenser1058]

Here's a promising thought - Vox suggests that even if Beto loses to Ted Cruz in Texas, he may still make it more likely for Democrats down ticket to win by increasing Democratic turnout.

Similarly, we know that Andrew Gillum has already increased African-American turnout and has likely done so with younger voters and Bernie Bros as well.

If Mayor Gillum should somehow lose (which the polls don't suggest), we'll probably still see more Democrats win elsewhere on the ticket.

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/policy-and-politics/2018/9/21/17852260/beto-orourke-cruz-down-ballot-texas-senate

 

GO VOTE! Tuesday 7am-7pm

[aent]

Well it seems like nearly every amendment as passed that was on the ballot, even with the 60% requirement. Only one that might fail is homestead exemption increase (amendment 1). The gambling ban did the best of them all.

[aent]

And while they're still officially too close to call, with 99% of precincts reporting it appears DeSantis is the likely winner of Florida, alongside Rick Scott, so no blue wave here in Florida, and our wallets and economy will hopefully remain safe a bit longer

[JFW657]

Last I heard, Nelson was calling for an investigation into some anomalies in Broward and Palm Beach counties.

But yeah, if you're a greedy multi-millionaire living in a seaside mansion, YOUR wallet probably is safe and sound now.

The rest of us, not so much.

[Dale]

Amazing, New Yorkers and New Jerseyites keep moving to Florida, and Democrats just can’t move the dial.

[JFW657]

Apparently we're just getting the dregs.

[aent]

3 hours ago, JFW657 said:

Last I heard, Nelson was calling for an investigation into some anomalies in Broward and Palm Beach counties.

But yeah, if you're a greedy multi-millionaire living in a seaside mansion, YOUR wallet probably is safe and sound now.

The rest of us, not so much.

For the rest of us as well, whether you choose to recognize it or not. I think Gillium hurt Nelson badly in Palm Beach and Broward county with his anti-semitic ties. Keep the radical, far lefts from running and get a more reasonable centrist (like Bill Nelson was) and the dems definitely would have won, but the voters punished the entire party for putting Gillium on the ballot.

[jrs2]

1 hour ago, aent said:

For the rest of us as well, whether you choose to recognize it or not. I think Gillium hurt Nelson badly in Palm Beach and Broward county with his anti-semitic ties. Keep the radical, far lefts from running and get a more reasonable centrist (like Bill Nelson was) and the dems definitely would have won, but the voters punished the entire party for putting Gillium on the ballot.

Now that's something you don't hear about everyday, an African-American Democrat with anti-semetic ties.  

Edited November 7, 2018 by jrs2

[prahaboheme]

10 hours ago, JFW657 said:

Last I heard, Nelson was calling for an investigation into some anomalies in Broward and Palm Beach counties.

Certainly isn’t a stretch...

[Dale]

Sore loserism and race-baiting aside, this is basically what DeSantis did to Gillum ...

 

[jrs2]

It's too bad about Nelson, because he was a centrist.  

[Dale]

5 minutes ago, jrs2 said:

It's too bad about Nelson, because he was a centrist.  

Well, that’s what Trump Derangement Syndrome does. 

In other news, just down the road, Tampa Transit Tax passes easily.

[jrs2]

8 minutes ago, Dale said:

Well, that’s what Trump Derangement Syndrome does. 

In other news, just down the road, Tampa Transit Tax passes easily.

what are the elements of that syndrome? becoming addicted to crude hair raising non-PC New Yorker street talk and tweets and p*ssy grabbing?

[Dale]

21 minutes ago, jrs2 said:

what are the elements of that syndrome? becoming addicted to crude hair raising non-PC New Yorker street talk and tweets and p*ssy grabbing?

Rather like aging Democrats who voted a documented sex predator a second term marching with vulva hats because they hate orange hair and spending astronomical amounts of money to garner narrow defeats ... which starts the cycle over ...