LOCAL and Florida Politics

[codypet]

1 minute ago, spenser1058 said:

The Sentinel paywall I can’t help with but judges get into ethics problems if they talk about issues. They also can’t disclose party although if you look at their bios you can sometimes figure it out

It was interesting because when Faye Olga Papas was running Facebook comments were slamming her for not disclosing party accusing her with having  something to hide. 

[spenser1058]

6 minutes ago, codypet said:

It was interesting because when Faye Olga Papas was running Facebook comments were slamming her for not disclosing party accusing her with having  something to hide. 

Oh dear. I think it’s good my only social media these days are UP and the UCF Fan Forum. Hopefully, @Neo will never get as crazy as Elon <g> (the WaPo and NYT comments are generally somewhat grown up, so I do read those).

Edited November 2, 2022 by spenser1058

[jrs2]

51 minutes ago, codypet said:

It was interesting because when Faye Olga Papas was running Facebook comments were slamming her for not disclosing party accusing her with having  something to hide. 

based on what I know, if you are a personal injury attorney and a Greek, then you are likely a Dem... it's kind of like..."is the Sear Tower tall and black?"

you're welcome.

[spenser1058]

26 minutes ago, jrs2 said:

based on what I know, if you are a personal injury attorney and a Greek, then you are likely a Dem... it's kind of like..."is the Sear Tower tall and black?"

you're welcome.

Hmmm, John Morgan holds fund-raisers for Repubs - things change.

As for the Greeks, check out the community in St Augustine and I think you’ll be amazed by the number of Repubs up there (St Johns being one of the reddest counties in FL).

[jrs2]

https://allears.net/2022/11/01/why-desantis-may-not-fundamentally-alter-disneys-business-in-florida-despite-claims/

RCID drama-

They go into the likely scenarios regarding the future of the RCID.  This exactly what I said many months back about whether I thought it was a lot of fluff and in the end not much happening to change the entity.

[orange87]

On 11/2/2022 at 2:37 PM, spenser1058 said:

Hmmm, John Morgan holds fund-raisers for Repubs - things change.

As for the Greeks, check out the community in St Augustine and I think you’ll be amazed by the number of Repubs up there (St Johns being one of the reddest counties in FL).

Say it ain't so! That's disappointing.

Edited November 12, 2022 by orange87

[idroveazamboni]

 

 

https://fee.org/articles/kevin-o-leary-on-inflation-you-printed-7-trillion-in-30-months-what-did-you-think-would-happen/?fbclid=IwAR18BbqEGL-VIP4j7BCSSy2IfoiD36BxuL5RmQPPk3gzAdrYh7yd7Z4lSNg

https://mises.org/wire/despite-their-hubris-monetary-authorities-do-not-have-total-control?fbclid=IwAR0VNuagObrOdqDE7Oz4WzxdakFhxR7guQOp2uBiMEHQ3zub1R_KfCmqzAE

[spenser1058]

Orange County commissioners vote to continue legal fight for rent control
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/orange-county/os-ne-orange-rent-control-appeal-fees-20221117-j5i4yeaonbgo7i2heutw3k3lvq-story.html

From The Sentinel 

Although it’s a lost cause here in New Mississippi, I’m proud of the OC Commission for acting like a true urban government and trying to do what’s right for citizens instead of deep-pocketed carpetbaggers.

Especially given the mailers sent out by the Real Estate Industrial Complex would have had voters believing that a one-year hold with rent increases still allowed up to the current rate of inflation somehow made OC the newest province of Communist Cuba. Not to mention the fact the ordinance had enough loopholes to drive a truck through.

Oddly, the real estate crowd thought it was just dandy when local rents increased by as much as fifty percent the year before here in the MSA with the lowest wages of the top 50.

Orange County commissioners vote to continue legal fight for rent control
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/orange-county/os-ne-orange-rent-control-appeal-fees-20221117-j5i4yeaonbgo7i2heutw3k3lvq-story.html

From The Sentinel

This is a good way to begin to rebuild trust with voters. OCPS extended the tax for schools with 81% in favor just two months ago.

The transportation tax was slaughtered because, although those same voters believe OCPS is looking out for their kids, they don’t trust an OC Commission that eviscerated the Split Oak agreement and gave Universal a deal worth hundreds of millions of dollars on a road deal that will primarily benefit it. They also approved an approach that leaves OC with more toll roads/square mile than just about any place else in the country, even as we have one of the lowest-paid work forces. 

Build back trust and try again. OC voters have shown they’ll gladly pay for things they believe will benefit their families and not just the wealthy.
 

 

 

[jack]

17 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

Orange County commissioners vote to continue legal fight for rent control
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/orange-county/os-ne-orange-rent-control-appeal-fees-20221117-j5i4yeaonbgo7i2heutw3k3lvq-story.html

From The Sentinel 

Although it’s a lost cause here in New Mississippi, I’m proud of the OC Commission for acting like a true urban government and trying to do what’s right for citizens instead of deep-pocketed carpetbaggers.

Especially given the mailers sent out by the Real Estate Industrial Complex would have had voters believing that a one-year hold with rent increases still allowed up to the current rate of inflation somehow made OC the newest province of Communist Cuba. Not to mention the fact the ordinance had enough loopholes to drive a truck through.

Oddly, the real estate crowd thought it was just dandy when local rents increased by as much as fifty percent the year before here in the MSA with the lowest wages of the top 50.

Orange County commissioners vote to continue legal fight for rent control
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/orange-county/os-ne-orange-rent-control-appeal-fees-20221117-j5i4yeaonbgo7i2heutw3k3lvq-story.html

From The Sentinel

This is a good way to begin to rebuild trust with voters. OCPS extended the tax for schools with 81% in favor just two months ago.

The transportation tax was slaughtered because, although those same voters believe OCPS is looking out for their kids, they don’t trust an OC Commission that eviscerated the Split Oak agreement and gave Universal a deal worth hundreds of millions of dollars on a road deal that will primarily benefit it. They also approved an approach that leaves OC with more toll roads/square mile than just about any place else in the country, even as we have one of the lowest-paid work forces. 

Build back trust and try again. OC voters have shown they’ll gladly pay for things they believe will benefit their families and not just the wealthy.
 

 

 

They can fight all they want but it does appear to against state statute. They are following the DeSantis model, pass something illegal and wait for the courts to strike it down. Afterwards, blame activist judges 

[spenser1058]

Osceola residents form PAC to move on growth issues in 2024:

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/osceola-county/os-ne-osceola-county-residents-form-pac-20221121-wnroqbuogbhplcbspy5trv4nka-story.html

From The Sentinel 

Where have you gone, @prahaboheme? It may be time to come back and shepherd a strong-mayor form of government into being for the county!

 

 

[AmIReal]

I have been wondering how Desantis would handle the "resign to run" laws.

From wiki- "Section 99.012 of the Florida Statutes states: "No officer may qualify as a candidate for another public office, whether state, district, county or municipal, if the terms or any part thereof run concurrently with each other, without resigning from the office he or she presently holds."[3] The Florida law permits an office-holder to make their resignation effective the day they would assume the new office if elected.

In 1970, the US District Court for the Northern District of Florida ruled that Florida's resign-to-run law could not be applied to candidates running for Congress. The court found that the law violated Article 1, Section 2, Clause 2, of the Constitution by providing an additional qualification not provided by the Constitution for election to Congress.[4] That same year, in a separate case, Supreme Court Justice Hugo Black questioned the constitutionality of the same statute.[5]"

It has never been tested for running for President, but I've been waiting to see if they would "pre-file" a writ for a summary judgement (they haven't).

Well, it looks like the "newly chosen Florida House Speaker Paul Renner said that it would be a "good idea" for the state's government, now controlled by a Republican supermajority, to change the law and allow officials to remain in their current seat while running for office."

https://www.newsweek.com/desantis-allies-begin-laying-groundwork-his-2024-white-house-run-1761800

[JFW657]

Big surprise. 

[spenser1058]

A good look at the disaster that is the Florida Democratic Party:

The Florida Democratic Party is in ruins. Rebuilding for 2024 better start now.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/24/florida-democrats-collapse-need-rebuild/

From The Washington Post 
 

[spenser1058]

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Times blames the poor Democratic turnout on lower participation this year by young and Black voters. 

It was certainly true of young voters around UCF this year, leading to the defeat of Carlos G. Smith (the district was also gerrymandered to make it more red).

The odd part about that is turnout among younger voters in other parts of the country wasn’t a problem. 

The bottom line is Florida’s Democratic Party has so many issues you can’t blame it on one thing. Even worse, the national party and out-of-state donors refused to try and prop a ship that’s been listing for years, making it even worse. It’s quite likely that once ruby-red Georgia will end 2022 more progressive than Florida. We really have become New Mississippi.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2022/11/09/republicans-dominate-florida-elections-democrat-turnout-low/

 

[orange87]

6 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

A good look at the disaster that is the Florida Democratic Party:

The Florida Democratic Party is in ruins. Rebuilding for 2024 better start now.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/24/florida-democrats-collapse-need-rebuild/

From The Washington Post 

I know it happened several years ago, but the whole Andrew Gillum "situation" hurt the party BADLY in Florida. It's amazing to think he came so close to beating DeSantis considering how badly Crist lost this year. Shows how far-right the state has gone in such a short amount of time.

Edited November 24, 2022 by orange87

[JFW657]

1 hour ago, orange87 said:

I know it happened several years ago, but the whole Andrew Gillum "situation" hurt the party BADLY in Florida. It's amazing to think he came so close to beating DeSantis considering how badly Crist lost this year. Shows how far-right the state has gone in such a short amount of time.

Northern and Midwestern transplants, I'm guessing. 

Plus, Hispanics seem to going red, too.

[orange87]

12 minutes ago, JFW657 said:

Northern and Midwestern transplants, I'm guessing. 

Plus, Hispanics seem to going red, too.

If by northern you mean specifically the northeast, they were responsible for Florida being purple for a while if anything. I know a lot of Floridians were mad about all the northeast liberals voting for Democrats in Florida. I think hispanics going red removed the main blue voting block in Florida. Now almost no significant areas in Florida can be considered reliably blue anymore. The Florida DNC essentially has to start over from scratch now.

Edited November 24, 2022 by orange87

[spenser1058]

12 minutes ago, JFW657 said:

Northern and Midwestern transplants, I'm guessing. 

Plus, Hispanics seem to going red, too.

It’s easy to blame it on retirees. Only problem is, Arizona’s a huge retiree state also.

The problem on Hispanics is they require person-to-person contact and because of COVID and other reasons, the FDP unilaterally disarmed.

We’re a party that simply stopped doing our job in Florida. It’s not unprecedented, the same thing happened to the state GOPs in California and Illinois when they didn’t keep up with changing demographics. 

Edited November 24, 2022 by spenser1058

[JFW657]

24 minutes ago, orange87 said:

If by northern you mean specifically the northeast, they were responsible for Florida being purple for a while if anything. I know a lot of Floridians were mad about all the northeast liberals voting for Democrats in Florida. I think hispanics going red removed the main blue voting block in Florida. Now almost no significant areas in Florida can be considered reliably blue anymore. The Florida DNC essentially has to start over from scratch now.

See The Villages. Full of Northeastern retirees and about as red as it gets.

And I also mentioned Midwesterners who tend to be pretty red.

Especially between the shoulders and the jawbone. 

24 minutes ago, spenser1058 said:

It’s easy to blame it on retirees. Only problem is, Arizona’s a huge retiree state also.

The problem on Hispanics is they require person-to-person contact and because of COVID and other reasons, the FDP unilaterally disarmed.

We’re a party that simply stopped doing our job in Florida. It’s not unprecedented, the same thing happened to the state GOPs in California and Illinois when they didn’t keep up with changing demographics. 

Arizona Democrats barely squeaked out a win, partly because of the Roe v. Wade decision.

The batsh*t crazy Trumpers the Repugnants ran helped too. 

Normally Arizona is about as red as Texas.

I think DeShameless won big here because we just had weak candidates.

I also think that the progressive agenda that seems only focused on gender issues, pronouns, pandering to politically correct wokeness and handing out $10 k worth of free education to almost anyone, has driven independents back to the right. 

I think the more liberal and progressive the Democrats get, the more elections we'll lose.

We have Trump and the SCOTUS to thank for our better than expected performance last time. 

That might not carry us in '24.  

[spenser1058]

5 minutes ago, JFW657 said:

See The Villages. Full of Northeastern retirees and about as red as it gets.

And I also mentioned Midwesterners who tend to be pretty red.

Especially between the shoulders and the jawbone. 

Arizona Democrats barely squeaked out a win, partly because of the Roe v. Wade decision.

The batsh*t crazy Trumpers the Repugnants ran helped too. 

Normally Arizona is about as red as Texas.

I think DeShameless won big here because we just had weak candidates.

I also think that the progressive agenda that seems only focused on gender issues, pronouns, pandering to politically correct wokeness and handing out $10 k worth of free education to almost anyone, has driven independents back to the right. 

I think the more liberal and progressive the Democrats get, the more elections we'll lose.

We have Trump and the SCOTUS to thank for our better than expected performance last time. 

That might not carry us in '24.  

Actually, Arizona’s been moving ever so slowly toward purple for a couple of circles now. Meanwhile, we’ve been on the knife’s edge for years now and this time we simply collapsed.

Neither Val Demings or Charlie Crist were perceived as the next AOC, any more than Joe Biden is by anyone outside the MAGA crowd.

In fact, older, white Democrats in the state showed up pretty much as usual. The collapse came among younger voters and among minority voters.

Tim Ryan campaigned as a more conservative Democrat in Ohio and lost. Shapiro and Fetterman campaigned further to the left in PA and won. Btw, the statewide Democrat in Ohio is Sherrod Brown, who’s pretty darn liberal but knows how to couch his beliefs.

As always, the candidate should match the place they’re running. In Florida, since so many folks have moved here recently, you have to define yourself before the GOP does. Due to a lack of organization and money, we didn’t do that. Gerrymandering also played a big role in Florida.

In OC, the “establishment “ transportation tax failed bigly  while the rent control ordinance the establishment refused to endorse or endorsed at best grudgingly, won. It’s all about meeting your voters where they are on the spectrum.

 

[JFW657]

40 minutes ago, spenser1058 said:

Actually, Arizona’s been moving ever so slowly toward purple for a couple of circles now. Meanwhile, we’ve been on the knife’s edge for years now and this time we simply collapsed.

Neither Val Demings or Charlie Crist were perceived as the next AOC, any more than Joe Biden is by anyone outside the MAGA crowd.

In fact, older, white Democrats in the state showed up pretty much as usual. The collapse came among younger voters and among minority voters.

Tim Ryan campaigned as a more conservative Democrat in Ohio and lost. Shapiro and Fetterman campaigned further to the left in PA and won. Btw, the statewide Democrat in Ohio is Sherrod Brown, who’s pretty darn liberal but knows how to couch his beliefs.

As always, the candidate should match the place they’re running. In Florida, since so many folks have moved here recently, you have to define yourself before the GOP does. Due to a lack of organization and money, we didn’t do that. Gerrymandering also played a big role in Florida.

In OC, the “establishment “ transportation tax failed bigly  while the rent control ordinance the establishment refused to endorse or endorsed at best grudgingly, won. It’s all about meeting your voters where they are on the spectrum.

 

Arizona is not all that purple yet...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/republicans-verge-keeping-control-arizona-033601170.html

 And apparently, if what you said about the recent turnout is true, here in Florida, the extremist progressive agenda is turning away young and black voters, too. 

I think if the Repugnants weren't saddled with Trump, Florida and the rest of the country would be even redder than it's become. 

The truth seems to be that most people see all that progressive, PC woke business as non-serious silliness and something they want no part of.  

[spenser1058]

A great profile on Congressman-elect Maxwell Frost in The NY Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/22/us/politics/maxwell-frost-congress-florida.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

It might be worth mentioning that he defeated a long list of more conservative Democrats as well as a very conservative Republicans. Candidates matter, as does matching the candidate with the district.
 

[JFW657]

1 hour ago, spenser1058 said:

A great profile on Congressman-elect Maxwell Frost in The NY Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/22/us/politics/maxwell-frost-congress-florida.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

It might be worth mentioning that he defeated a long list of more conservative Democrats as well as a very conservative Republicans. Candidates matter, as does matching the candidate with the district.
 

West Orange County.  

Apopka, Eatonville, Harlem Heights, Ocoee, Oak Ridge, Orlo Vista, Winter Garden....

From Wikipedia: "Prior to 2017, it was considered a swing district with a slight Republican tilt. Due to mid-decade redistricting that occurred in 2016, the district became much more compact. It is now considered solidly Democratic."

Stands to reason.

Edited November 25, 2022 by JFW657

[jack]

On 11/24/2022 at 8:05 PM, spenser1058 said:

Actually, Arizona’s been moving ever so slowly toward purple for a couple of circles now. Meanwhile, we’ve been on the knife’s edge for years now and this time we simply collapsed.

Neither Val Demings or Charlie Crist were perceived as the next AOC, any more than Joe Biden is by anyone outside the MAGA crowd.

In fact, older, white Democrats in the state showed up pretty much as usual. The collapse came among younger voters and among minority voters.

Tim Ryan campaigned as a more conservative Democrat in Ohio and lost. Shapiro and Fetterman campaigned further to the left in PA and won. Btw, the statewide Democrat in Ohio is Sherrod Brown, who’s pretty darn liberal but knows how to couch his beliefs.

As always, the candidate should match the place they’re running. In Florida, since so many folks have moved here recently, you have to define yourself before the GOP does. Due to a lack of organization and money, we didn’t do that. Gerrymandering also played a big role in Florida.

In OC, the “establishment “ transportation tax failed bigly  while the rent control ordinance the establishment refused to endorse or endorsed at best grudgingly, won. It’s all about meeting your voters where they are on the spectrum.

 

That is the most important thing a candidate can do. Ryan campaigned that way because Ohio is a strong red state and out preformed the democratic candidate for governor. Pennsylvania is a blue state that got word back on 2016. 

Also keep in mind that Christ did not match Gillum's vote totals even though we have a million more registered voters compared to 2018.

On 11/25/2022 at 6:55 AM, spenser1058 said:

A great profile on Congressman-elect Maxwell Frost in The NY Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/22/us/politics/maxwell-frost-congress-florida.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

It might be worth mentioning that he defeated a long list of more conservative Democrats as well as a very conservative Republicans. Candidates matter, as does matching the candidate with the district.
 

He did but the other candidates split the vote. If he had to face one of them one on on, he would not have been elected. Or if ranked choice voting was in play. 

[spenser1058]

18 minutes ago, jack said:

That is the most important thing a candidate can do. Ryan campaigned that way because Ohio is a strong red state and out preformed the democratic candidate for governor. Pennsylvania is a blue state that got word back on 2016. 

Also keep in mind that Christ did not match Gillum's vote totals even though we have a million more registered voters compared to 2018.

He did but the other candidates split the vote. If he had to face one of them one on on, he would not have been elected. Or if ranked choice voting was in play. 

Crist’s performance relative to Gillum puts the lie to the idea that a moderate is always the solution. especially in Florida.

If the new-to-the-state retirees along the I-75 corridor are going to reflexively pull the “R” lever, the only way Democrats will meet that is to excite their urban base, especially among minorities and younger voters. 

Those Democrats were bored by Crist and Val overemphasized her cop cred with those folks. So the Democratic base just stayed home - we lost in places we never lose because of it. 

There are plenty of places moderate Democrats are the answer (see Mark Kelly in Arizona). Right now, Florida isn’t necessarily one of them.

As to Frost, there were plenty of progressives in those primaries. Head-to-head with Wimbush, there was no contest. Again, that’s because Frost was the right candidate for that district. Had they put up a moderate Dem,  he or she may well have lost if the base weren’t enthused about the candidate.

Candidates matter but they have to fit their voters. At the same time, the GOP in Florida did pretty much everything right in Florida from an organizational standpoint (gerrymandering and voter suppression strategies also helped), while the Democrats’ mechanics were a total disaster. That’s another reason why our results were so out of line with the rest of the country.