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New Year's Predictions - 2020


KJHburg

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My predictions are all Tepper related, based on his press conferences since taking ownership. 

1. MLS and Charlotte are back on track (although personally I would prefer MLB) to have a team play here in the near future. 

2. Tepper has spoken a lot about sports betting since the ruling came out. I can see him if NC law allows in the future pushing for a casino in the Charlotte area. 

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4 minutes ago, Popsickle said:

My predictions are all Tepper related, based on his press conferences since taking ownership. 

1. MLS and Charlotte are back on track (although personally I would prefer MLB) to have a team play here in the near future. 

2. Tepper has spoken a lot about sports betting since the ruling came out. I can see him if NC law allows in the future pushing for a casino in the Charlotte area. 

I could see 2 never happening.

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23 hours ago, Tyrone Wiggum said:

Five reasonably reasonable predictions:

1) The nascent bear market leaves at least one building unfinished ala The Park



2) Any 10+ building without a shovel in the ground by January 31st is shelved till the next cycle;

3) Housing prices decline by at least 10% from 2018 peak;



4) Kemba Walker is signed and traded and the Hornets begin rebuild number 30;

5) The Monroe Bypass decimates businesses on old 74.

Five reasonably unreasonable predictions:

1) Krispy Kreme is spun off to Tim Horton's;

2) Wells Fargo relocates its HQ to Charlotte and rebrands itself as First Waldensia;

3) Legacy Union 1 is obscured by construction projects from all sides;

4) Roy Williams uses all his timeouts on his way to outsmarting Coach K in the ACC Championship game;

5) RobinHood is totes legit as an investment platform and announces plans to relocate from Menlo Park to Uptown, only to realize it can't pay 3% on money market deposits when ten year treasuries are paying 2.8%, relocates anyway and halfway builds a 90 story tower before pulling out.  Lincoln Harris promptly brands half-built tower Legacy Union 3.



Tyrone's (arms-length-transactions) Wishlist:

1) NASCAR's ratings decline to the point it is no longer televised.  Never again. Not ever;

2) Duke Power realizes it's done a half ass-job of building a flagship tower and doubles the number of floors for its new building;

3) The Rays surprise Montreal and Portland by announcing relocation plans for Charlotte and consolidating Levine land into a 30k seat stadium.  The Knights relocate to Tampa;

4) The Panthers trade Cam Newton for future draft picks and find a quarterback that can actually quarterback for two decades;

5) MJ trades Frank Kaminsky to Orlando for a Harry Potter wand and unlimited admissions to Animal Kingdom.



 

 

 

 

I see you are really bullish LOL

Think #2 is fair. Construction costs are starting get out of whack especially steel + concrete. Still looking for this bear market you speak of Charlotte RE.

 

 

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In terms of new office buildings and rising construction prices means heavily anchored buildings will and can started or very well capitalized developers.  Honestly we don;t have a lot of spec buildings going up right now.    Believe it or not I think this development cycle has been very restrained.  Tenants are moving to better space and maximizing it thus higher rents may not raise their total costs of office space.  

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15 hours ago, lancer22 said:

I see you are really bullish LOL

Since the end of WW2, the third year of the presidential cycle has been gangbusters for the stock market, particularly the first four months of the year.  That said,  a lot of sectors are already in bear market territory and it appears that defensive rotation is the only thing holding us at support.  No clue where we wind up the year but this bull market is a decade old and valuations have and continue to be out of whack with historical averages.

NASDAQ gets down 30% and I'll be totally in the pool on small cap tech and emerging markets, but we've gotta get some of these excesses corrected at some point; why not now?

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33 minutes ago, Tyrone Wiggum said:

Since the end of WW2, the third year of the presidential cycle has been gangbusters for the stock market, particularly the first four months of the year.  That said,  a lot of sectors are already in bear market territory and it appears that defensive rotation is the only thing holding us at support.  No clue where we wind up the year but this bull market is a decade old and valuations have and continue to be out of whack with historical averages.

NASDAQ gets down 30% and I'll be totally in the pool on small cap tech and emerging markets, but we've gotta get some of these excesses corrected at some point; why not now?

Seems like the concensus calls for slower growth, in 2019, than torrid 2018, with a chance of recession, albeit nothing like pictures falling off the wall 2008. IMO, none of this portends contstruction grinding to a halt anytime soon.

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Predictions:

1. The Office Boom continues with two more towers announced in uptown (around 400-500k sq feet each), two more larger projects in southend (around 200-300k) + some 100k size projects inner city neighborhoods (NoDa, Elizabeth,  Wesley Heights, Plaza Midwood)

2. NAI Tower in Elizabeth gets scrapped. 

3. Pappas sells its Scaleybark land to another local development company. 

4. Highrise residential grinds to a halt for 2019, Lennar is the last residential tower over 20 floors until 2020 (when I think Lincoln Harris announces two residential towers fronting the Panthers Stadium.)

5. Hotels pick up where residential left off, two new hotels announced in Uptown, one in Dilworth, three in SouthEnd.  

6. Lowes opens a Tech Office uptown. 

7. Theres a HUGE uptown shuffle. PWC, KPMG, Parker Poe, US Bank, AIG. Leaving some older buildings in the lurch.

8. Honeywell ends up in one of four buildings in Southend. Portman, Spectrum, or two not yet announced. (perhaps Cousins across the street from DFA or some partnership with RAM Realty at Design Center)

9. Duke increases the scope of their building to 45 floors. 

10. My wife and I move to North Carolina, no seriously anyone have some leads? I gotta get outta this city.

11. The tips of the exposed rebar get one year more rusty at Levine 1st Ward village. 

12. The Carolina Panthers buy Charlotte Pipe & Foundry who sells the land at a 5% discount because of extensive remediation, but it doesn't matter, they make a crap ton off the deal, and move operations to Monroe or Lumberton or somewhere else terrible.

13. Integral and Cousins wins 7th and Tryon. 

14. Lincoln Harris buys 526 South Church, and the Duke Energy Deck

15. Brooklyn Village stays dormant.

16. Uptown Cabaret and the land surrounding it is purchased for redevelopment.

17. 1440 South Tryon is purchased for redevelopment. 

18. Gold District finally gets a little love.

19. Novant does nothing in Elizabeth. 

20. Faison does nothing in Elizabeth, and the community gets a nice mud pit for their kids to play soccer in.

21. Nobody is satisfied with signed retail tenants.

 

 

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27 minutes ago, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

Predictions:

1. The Office Boom continues with two more towers announced in uptown (around 400-500k sq feet each), two more larger projects in southend (around 200-300k) + some 100k size projects inner city neighborhoods (NoDa, Elizabeth,  Wesley Heights, Plaza Midwood)

2. NAI Tower in Elizabeth gets scrapped. 

3. Pappas sells its Scaleybark land to another local development company. 

4. Highrise residential grinds to a halt for 2019, Lennar is the last residential tower over 20 floors until 2020 (when I think Lincoln Harris announces two residential towers fronting the Panthers Stadium.)

5. Hotels pick up where residential left off, two new hotels announced in Uptown, one in Dilworth, three in SouthEnd.  

6. Lowes opens a Tech Office uptown. 

7. Theres a HUGE uptown shuffle. PWC, KPMG, Parker Poe, US Bank, AIG. Leaving some older buildings in the lurch.

8. Honeywell ends up in one of four buildings in Southend. Portman, Spectrum, or two not yet announced. (perhaps Cousins across the street from DFA or some partnership with RAM Realty at Design Center)

9. Duke increases the scope of their building to 45 floors. 

10. My wife and I move to North Carolina, no seriously anyone have some leads?

11. The tips of the exposed rebar get one year more rusty at Levine 1st Ward village. 

12. The Carolina Panthers buy Charlotte Pipe & Foundry who sells the land at a 5% discount because of extensive remediation, but it doesn't matter, they make a crap ton off the deal, and move operations to Monroe or Lumberton or somewhere else terrible.

13. Integral and Cousins wins 7th and Tryon. 

14. Lincoln Harris buys 526 South Church

15. Brooklyn Village stays dormant.

16. Uptown Cabaret and the land surrounding it is purchased for redevelopment.

17. 1440 South Tryon is purchased for redevelopment. 

18. Gold District finally gets a little love.

19. Novant does nothing in Elizabeth. 

20. Faison does nothing in Elizabeth, and the community gets a nice mud pit for their kids to play soccer in.

 

 

I've been waiting for those... :hi:

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1 hour ago, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

Predictions:

1. The Office Boom continues with two more towers announced in uptown (around 400-500k sq feet each), two more larger projects in southend (around 200-300k) + some 100k size projects inner city neighborhoods (NoDa, Elizabeth,  Wesley Heights, Plaza Midwood).  Care to make a wager on this one?

2. NAI Tower in Elizabeth gets scrapped.  Will it be resurrected in another form?

4.... (when I think Lincoln Harris announces two residential towers fronting the Panthers Stadium.)  Tell us moar!

9. Duke increases the scope of their building to 45 floors.   MOAR FLOORS!

11. The tips of the exposed rebar get one year more rusty at Levine 1st Ward village.  Good news: Max Max Fury Road 2 will begin principal photography in Levineland come 2020!

13. Integral and Cousins wins 7th and Tryon.  Whut? Nothing on the googlewebs.

14. Lincoln Harris buys 526 South Church, and the Duke Energy Deck What do they do with them? And it better not be build crap concrete 80's Dallas business park towers.

See comments in red.  Please respond by COB with appropriate TPS cover sheet.

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1 hour ago, Tyrone Wiggum said:

See comments in red.  Please respond by COB with appropriate TPS cover sheet.

Responses in Blue

1. The Office Boom continues with two more towers announced in uptown (around 400-500k sq feet each), two more larger projects in southend (around 200-300k) + some 100k size projects inner city neighborhoods (NoDa, Elizabeth,  Wesley Heights, Plaza Midwood).  Care to make a wager on this one? 

Sure. Dozen Donuts I have a connection @KJHburg. Also, I said announced. not necessarily built ;-)

2. NAI Tower in Elizabeth gets scrapped.  Will it be resurrected in another form?

Doubtful

4.... (when I think Lincoln Harris announces two residential towers fronting the Panthers Stadium.)  Tell us moar!

No more info. Pretty sure both will be in the 25-35 floor range.

9. Duke increases the scope of their building to 45 floors.   MOAR FLOORS!

U a 4chan guy? lol

11. The tips of the exposed rebar get one year more rusty at Levine 1st Ward village.  Good news: Max Max Fury Road 2 will begin principal photography in Levineland come 2020!]

Great news!

13. Integral and Cousins wins 7th and Tryon.  Whut? Nothing on the googlewebs.

https://www.seventhandtryon.com

14. Lincoln Harris buys 526 South Church, and the Duke Energy Deck What do they do with them? And it better not be build crap concrete 80's Dallas business park towers.

Thats exactly what they'll do with them. 

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23 minutes ago, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

9. Duke increases the scope of their building to 45 floors.   MOAR FLOORS!

U a 4chan guy? lol

 

Call me when DUK is over 9000.

I have to keep my mouth shut about DUK so as not to betray a confidence, but it's not out of bounds to ask why Duke isn't building a tower that can accommodate  both its present and future workforce as opposed to what appears to be the current piecemeal space solution.

Edited by Tyrone Wiggum
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  • dubone changed the title to New Year's Predictions - 2020

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