Zoning and Affordable Housing

[Armacing]

5 hours ago, Bos2Nash said:

Lastly, you talk about de-regulation would massively cut the cost of land and then housing would become much easier to build? What about the labor to build all this housing? We have a labor shortage now, when more builders are looking to build more, who is going to work for such builders? Builders are going to have to lure employees to come work for them with higher wages and higher benefits thus driving construction costs back up, thus passing along those costs to the developer who passes them on to the buyers. In this scenario, de-regulation just moves the can from one issue and creates another one.

Only since you asked... I will offer up this policy position that is sure to raise some eyebrows:  Libertarians don't believe in immigration limits.  I think all a person needs to do to become a US citizen is pass a background check to make sure they're not a violent criminal in their home country, pass a health check, and sign their name to a list of people who want to become US citizens.  Done.  I bet we could re-locate 10% of the world's population into our country during the first decade of that policy.   By the second decade we could become more populous than India.

Labor shortage solved.

[Bos2Nash]

22 hours ago, Armacing said:

Only since you asked... I will offer up this policy position that is sure to raise some eyebrows:  Libertarians don't believe in immigration limits.  I think all a person needs to do to become a US citizen is pass a background check to make sure they're not a violent criminal in their home country, pass a health check, and sign their name to a list of people who want to become US citizens.  Done.  I bet we could re-locate 10% of the world's population into our country during the first decade of that policy.   By the second decade we could become more populous than India.

Labor shortage solved.

No offense, but everything you say politically raises at least a few eyebrows haha.

There are several flaws in this approach as 1) trusting a foreign government is risky at best 2) health records may be non-existent coming from some countries 3) who says those immigrants would want to go into the construction industry (or are you just generalizing to certain immigrants?) 4) the current political state would most likely drastically cut into you 10% world population estimate - granted in your dream world the political climate is very different.

Your labor shortage comments also does not address the fact that such a mass amount of construction would create a frenzy of hiring that creates high demand which drives up salaries because of competition. So ultimately the cost of construction climbs back up because of construction costs. Also with a dramatic increase in construction, material supply chains will be impacted dramatically driving up demand and again increasing costs. Not to mention you open the door for extremely unsustainable construction practices such as wood materials that are not being sourced ethically and drives up deforestation and increases the effects of climate change. 

[Nashvillain]

Putting this in the Coffee House in an extant thread where no one will ever see it...

 

Your City's Wealth Isn't Where You Think (strongtowns.org)

[KJHburg]

The city of Charlotte just passed a new UDO ordinance that will lift all single family zoning in the city.  Most of the newer neighborhoods and those deed restricted will be able to keep all SF homes and no new duplexes or triplexes could be built.  But in the rest of the city and mainly in older neighborhoods you will be allowed starting next July by right a duplex or triplex on the lot.  Many of those in favor citing missing middle of housing was needed but we will see how it works out.  Others are concerned their neighborhoods will have older smaller homes thus cheaper replaced by new duplexes and triplexes that are much more expensive.   Time will tell how this works out and no other city or town in the region has followed this expect for the small college town of Davidson which has some of the highest median prices in the area.   

[MLBrumby]

7 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

The city of Charlotte just passed a new UDO ordinance that will lift all single family zoning in the city.  Most of the newer neighborhoods and those deed restricted will be able to keep all SF homes and no new duplexes or triplexes could be built.  But in the rest of the city and mainly in older neighborhoods you will be allowed starting next July by right a duplex or triplex on the lot.  Many of those in favor citing missing middle of housing was needed but we will see how it works out.  Others are concerned their neighborhoods will have older smaller homes thus cheaper replaced by new duplexes and triplexes that are much more expensive.   Time will tell how this works out and no other city or town in the region has followed this expect for the small college town of Davidson which has some of the highest median prices in the area.   

The opposite happened in Nashville in the 1970s... How do I know?  Because when I lived there, I saw scads of new, cheaply-built duplexes in established neighborhoods and had to ask someone why that happened.  Granted it was during a time of suburban flight and there was a 'vacuum' left where many families vacated.  I hope I'm wrong, but it sure looks like we're entering a period just like the 1970s.  

Edited September 12, 2022 by MLBrumby

[Nashvillain]

13 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

The opposite happened in Nashville in the 1970s... How do I know?  Because when I lived there, I saw scads of new, cheaply-built duplexes in established neighborhoods and had to ask someone why that happened.  Granted it was during a time of suburban flight and there was a 'vacuum' left where many families vacated.  I hope I'm wrong, but it sure looks like we're entering a period just like the 1970s.  

Is it currently a time of suburban flight and "'vacuum'"? 

Hard to see how we're entering a period just like the 70s...

[samsonh]

24 minutes ago, Nashvillain said:

Is it currently a time of suburban flight and "'vacuum'"? 

Hard to see how we're entering a period just like the 70s...

Exactly. The core of most American cities is on fire. Rapid development everywhere. We do need to slow the economy down to deal with inflation, and do a variety of other things to increase the size of our workforce, but things are pretty good in US cities right now.

[Armacing]

On 7/13/2022 at 1:25 PM, Bos2Nash said:

1) trusting a foreign government is risky at best 2) health records may be non-existent coming from some countries

Good point!  We should do testing on all new arrivals to make sure.

On 7/13/2022 at 1:25 PM, Bos2Nash said:

3) who says those immigrants would want to go into the construction industry (or are you just generalizing to certain immigrants?)

I don't think new arrivals would enter construction at a drastically higher % than existing residents, but it would be an attractive profession that pays good wages and doesn't necessarily require a degree.  But full disclosure:  the Libertarian immigration policy is not driven by any particular workforce-related goal.  It's more of a moral imperative to gather all the freedom-loving peoples of the world into one country.  I just think one of the beneficial side effects of a constant influx of new arrivals is a well-rounded workforce.

On 7/13/2022 at 1:25 PM, Bos2Nash said:

4) the current political state would most likely drastically cut into you 10% world population estimate - granted in your dream world the political climate is very different.

What does political state have to do with it?  I doubt the local political issues that we assign out-sized importance to here would factor into many immigrant's decision-making process at all, considering how bad the economy/oppression situation is in so many other countries.  10% would be easy, 20% might even be possible.

On 7/13/2022 at 1:25 PM, Bos2Nash said:

Your labor shortage comments also does not address the fact that such a mass amount of construction would create a frenzy of hiring that creates high demand which drives up salaries because of competition. So ultimately the cost of construction climbs back up because of construction costs. Also with a dramatic increase in construction, material supply chains will be impacted dramatically driving up demand and again increasing costs. 

True - there could be short term-disruptions as supply catches up.  However, that much larger demand for housing will serve as justification for massive new investments in construction supply related industries, so supply and demand will eventually even out.  My point is that the labor supply is being artificially constrained by our immigration laws, so if we ditch those laws, then we can finally get enough people in here to meet the demand and find equilibrium in the market.

On 7/13/2022 at 1:25 PM, Bos2Nash said:

Not to mention you open the door for extremely unsustainable construction practices such as wood materials that are not being sourced ethically and drives up deforestation and increases the effects of climate change. 

Are you talking about wood used in construction in the US?  Because if so, you are wildly out-of-touch with how the forestry industry works in North America.  The vast majority of wood used for construction/paper comes from plantation forestry where trees are grown in multi-decade cycles.  It's the ultimate renewable material and it wood construction serves as a form of carbon sequestration (for anyone who believes CO2 is a problem), so if you are worried about the environment, you should be pro-wood construction.  

If you're talking about tropical rainforest deforestation, then you should know that the motivation is almost always to re-purpose that land for agriculture, not harvest the wood.  There is some wood harvesting, but ranching/farming in Brazil and Palm-Oil plantations in Malaysia/Indonesia are the largest offenders in terms of tropical rainforest destruction.

On 9/13/2022 at 7:49 AM, samsonh said:

Exactly. The core of most American cities is on fire. Rapid development everywhere. We do need to slow the economy down to deal with inflation, and do a variety of other things to increase the size of our workforce, but things are pretty good in US cities right now.

We don't need to slow the economy down to deal with inflation, we just need the Fed to stop increasing the money supply and injecting liquidity into capital markets. Instead of setting the interest rate, they need to let the market set the rate and remove all limitations.  This entire boom-bust cycle of inflation and asset bubbles and credit bubbles is 100%  due to market manipulation by the fed and de-coupling the dollar from gold, allowing an expansion of the money supply and devaluation of the dollar.

[samsonh]

@Armacingthe market does set interest rates. The Fed is quite clear the only thing they control is overnight bank lending rates. They have no control over longer rates, as evidenced by 30 year bonds yielding less than 10 and 2 years. The Fed is also performing 95 billion a month in balance sheet reduction, so if you viewed QE as "money printing", you should be quite happy with "money destruction". The dollar and gold thing is non sensical, keep buying precious metals. I will buy productive companies. 

[Armacing]

22 hours ago, samsonh said:

The Fed is also performing 95 billion a month in balance sheet reduction, so if you viewed QE as "money printing", you should be quite happy with "money destruction". 

So I'm supposed to give the Fed credit for trying to fix a problem they created?  I don't think so... Homey don't play dat.

22 hours ago, samsonh said:

 The dollar and gold thing is non sensical, keep buying precious metals. I will buy productive companies. 

If owning gold is so "non sensical", then why does every major central bank own so much of it?  Why was it necessary for FDR to issue an executive order making it illegal to own gold in the US in 1933?  Why didn't the Fed ever give back the gold that was taken by force from the American people?  The obvious realities we see around us do not correspond to your CNBC talking points.

[Armacing]

Another good article detailing how rich & powerful forces use zoning laws to keep poor people impoverished.  It's good to read within the article how interests from both sides of the aisle are uniting to eliminate the unjust oppression that is zoning laws.  Hopefully this trend continues to extend the right to freely use one's land to everyone in America, even if they don't have the wealth & power to influence corrupt bureaucrats who have stolen everyone's property rights.  Enjoy the context!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/how-rich-blue-suburbs-keep-the-poor-away/ar-AA1eenwm

 

[samsonh]

On 7/23/2023 at 2:08 PM, Armacing said:

Another good article detailing how rich & powerful forces use zoning laws to keep poor people impoverished.  It's good to read within the article how interests from both sides of the aisle are uniting to eliminate the unjust oppression that is zoning laws.  Hopefully this trend continues to extend the right to freely use one's land to everyone in America, even if they don't have the wealth & power to influence corrupt bureaucrats who have stolen everyone's property rights.  Enjoy the context!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/how-rich-blue-suburbs-keep-the-poor-away/ar-AA1eenwm

 

100% agree. This type of NIMBYism is extremely bad. We see it here in nashville from time to time(Belle Meade Plaza recently). Usually traffic or neighborhood character are used as the reasons to deny density and opportunity for housing. 
 

in nashville I hope we get rid of a lot of our restrictive zoning code. Allow people to build densely. This should increase supply and over time help alleviate the housing crunch. We also need to get rid of  the Historical Zoning Commission in my opinion. All these historical districts serve as an additional hindrance and cost.

 

if we can reduce the time it costs to plan and build a project, we can reduce costs of housing. 

[Nashville Cliff]

New draft TACIR report on affordable housing being presented on January 26, 2024. Draft here: Tab 9 Housing Draft Report (tn.gov)

 

[colemangaines]

1 hour ago, Nashville Cliff said:

New draft TACIR report on affordable housing being presented on January 26, 2024. Draft here: Tab 9 Housing Draft Report (tn.gov)

Can't wait to dive into this!

[Nathan_in_DC]

On 1/23/2024 at 8:39 AM, Nashville Cliff said:

New draft TACIR report on affordable housing being presented on January 26, 2024. Draft here: Tab 9 Housing Draft Report (tn.gov)

 

Man, that paints a pretty bleak picture. This sentence from the intro just illustrates how screwed up the housing market is at the moment:

"... median sales price of all homes in Tennessee as of 2022 reached $325,000, an increase of 44% since 2019."

That's absolutely unsustainable, I don't know how it's even possible short of a massive bubble that's about to collapse.