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ONE22ONE, 25 stories, 356', 357,000 sq. ft. office space, 6,700 q. ft. ground floor retail


markhollin

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I don't remember such a high percentage of proposed projects actually getting to construction in the previous boom, is that me just not really paying attention back then? I didn't really have high hopes for this one for whatever reason, but it looks like it's cruising on through. 

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23 minutes ago, e-dub said:

I don't remember such a high percentage of proposed projects actually getting to construction in the previous boom, is that me just not really paying attention back then? I didn't really have high hopes for this one for whatever reason, but it looks like it's cruising on through. 

a demo permit really isn't much. I expect we have a while until actually construction starts. 

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30 minutes ago, e-dub said:

I don't remember such a high percentage of proposed projects actually getting to construction in the previous boom, is that me just not really paying attention back then? I didn't really have high hopes for this one for whatever reason, but it looks like it's cruising on through. 

 

It's you not paying attention. So far, outside of Crescent and Crescendo everything has gotten built.  Maybe you can throw in the House of Blues and Disney towers if you actually considered those serious proposals. 

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25 minutes ago, e-dub said:

I don't remember such a high percentage of proposed projects actually getting to construction in the previous boom, is that me just not really paying attention back then? I didn't really have high hopes for this one for whatever reason, but it looks like it's cruising on through. 

It feels like a lot of these developers are trying their best to get something built and rented out / sold before the next recession hits.  We’re historically overdue for a recession...so I’m sure all of these guys are racing against the clock and pushing these through the best they can.

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I have a spread sheet of projects but not one going from announced to groundbreaking as it would be really messed up. For instance the West End Summit from announced to really starting is 20 years. TheTravis Kelty site through all the different proposals from start to groundbreaking ...years. Tonys Signature Tower location that ended up being 505 and going through all the different proposals..... shall I go on..

I think you see what I am talking about. The current nature of things in Nashvillee seems to mean that all bets are off and we just dont know what to expect. This current boom started in lets say 2012 and has done nothing but pick up speed.

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1 hour ago, titanhog said:

It feels like a lot of these developers are trying their best to get something built and rented out / sold before the next recession hits.  We’re historically overdue for a recession...so I’m sure all of these guys are racing against the clock and pushing these through the best they can.

Yeah but on the flip side rushing to beat a recession isn't always the best strategy as you could end up with an empty office or residential tower. I honestly think these people are all legit sold on Nashville. The last recession didn't hit us hard relatively and with our pro business climate if another recession does hit you may see even more AllianceBernstein / Amazon types seeking out more affordable locations like Nashville as opposed to places like NYC where they get hammered.

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5 minutes ago, DDIG said:

Yeah but on the flip side rushing to beat a recession isn't always the best strategy as you could end up with an empty office or residential tower. I honestly think these people are all legit sold on Nashville. The last recession didn't hit us hard relatively and with our pro business climate if another recession does hit you may see even more AllianceBernstein / Amazon types seeking out more affordable locations like Nashville as opposed to places like NYC where they get hammered.

Couldn't agree more. A recession could very well help Nashville, as it's a much cheaper place to do business. Already, we're seeing the effects of high-income executives in high tax states deciding to move to low/no income tax states b/c they're no longer deductible on federal returns. Don't underestimate that as a huge deal. I've already dealt with more than two dozen clients who have looked at what their options are... from tax shelters to moving to another state. 

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4 hours ago, Ingram said:

 

It's you not paying attention. So far, outside of Crescent and Crescendo everything has gotten built.  Maybe you can throw in the House of Blues and Disney towers if you actually considered those serious proposals. 

Let's not forget the glorious "PolerCoaster" proposal while we're at it... LOL

Thank God that thing never got built.

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8 hours ago, DDIG said:

Yeah but on the flip side rushing to beat a recession isn't always the best strategy as you could end up with an empty office or residential tower. I honestly think these people are all legit sold on Nashville. The last recession didn't hit us hard relatively and with our pro business climate if another recession does hit you may see even more AllianceBernstein / Amazon types seeking out more affordable locations like Nashville as opposed to places like NYC where they get hammered.

And wouldn't a recession mean lower construction costs?  It seems to me that if these high rollers really thought we were headed for another recession, they'd put off building so many spec buildings until construction costs went back down.  Right now, buildings and land in Nashville are being sold at dizzying rates, and construction costs are at record highs.  These investors and developers sure aren't acting like they think a recession is right around the corner.

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4 hours ago, jmtunafish said:

And wouldn't a recession mean lower construction costs?  It seems to me that if these high rollers really thought we were headed for another recession, they'd put off building so many spec buildings until construction costs went back down.  Right now, buildings and land in Nashville are being sold at dizzying rates, and construction costs are at record highs.  These investors and developers sure aren't acting like they think a recession is right around the corner.

Usually, that's how cycles operate.  There becomes a frenzied high followed by a crash and burn.  Not saying that this is what is happening, but at some point I would assume a "cool down."  Whether the cool down is large or small is hard to predict.    Also, it depends if there are national or global effects or more regional.  Either way, Nashville should be able to weather the next down turn, whenever that may be.  However, if there is a cool down, I would expect SOME projects to become scaled back or put on hold.

Of course no one wants the high to end, which is why investors get in trouble.  Some are buying high only hoping to sell to someone else at even higher prices.  Investing...the more risk...the bigger the gain...or loss.

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