Retail Trends That May Affect Central Florida

[HankStrong]

20 hours ago, JFW657 said:

Though I worked for JCP (Merritt Square Mall) for a year back in '79 - '80, I've never purchased one thing from them since then. 

So, their closing is just one more thing that's my fault, I guess.... 

BTW, the video is better if you set the playback speed to 2x. 

i can't remember purchasing a single thing from JCP in my entire adult life.  I think my mom bought me a couple of school shirts at one of the random malls I grew up near somewhere in the Midwest at some random point.

 

JCP made such an impression on my life.  RIP Old Friend.

[spenser1058]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-and-giant-mall-operator-look-at-turning-sears-j-c-penney-stores-into-fulfillment-centers-11596992863
 

WSJ is reporting that talks continue to advance between mall operator Simon and amazon to convert as many as 74 former Sears and JCPenney stores into amazon fulfillment centers.

If this proceeds, it may have little practical effect on us so far as the only Simon mall locally that has shuttered a Sears or Penney is Seminole Town Center (I think- feel free to correct).

Interestingly, OBJ just published a story this week that amazon has acquired land near Apopka for a fulfillment center so they may be taking a different approach here.

In more vital retail news - after months of waiting, Clorox Packs are FINALLY back in stock at Target. A crisis was approaching as I was down to my last one and was rapidly having to face the specter of dingy whites. Crisis averted - June Cleaver would be proud!

 

[spenser1058]

An interesting variant on this story in Business Insider suggests that, if the Simon bid (along with fellow mall owner Brookfield Properties) for JCPenney were to be successful, their control of the retailer   would expand the options.

For example, of Simon/Brookfield controlled Penney, could amazon gain access to the store at Fashion Square? Or, for that matter, at Brookfield’s Altamonte Mall?

Keep in mind all of this is speculation so far.

https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-looks-to-turn-malls-into-giant-fulfillment-centers-report-2020-8

[spenser1058]

While we’re going far afield in retail, let’s try one more here in the Orlando market.

(1) We watched as Florida Mall, once the center of Orlando’s tourism retail business, lost that trade in part because it was no longer the most convenient option for tourists;

(2) Between Disney Springs and Simon’s outlet malls, we know traditional department store anchors are no longer required for successful retail centers;

(3) All three of Millenia’s anchors (Macy’s, Bloomie’s and Neiman’s) are currently in various degrees of distress;

(4) Simon has sought to end its deal with Taubman, who owns Millenia;

(5) Currently, Millenia has the least convenient access for tourists relative to Disney (Disney Springs/Vineland Outlets) Universal/I-Drive (I-Drive Outlets) - it’s also in the most challenging neighborhood;

(6) If Disney Springs and/or Simon’s Vineland and I-Drive Outlets were to expand and add further upscale retailers (depending on what chains survive COVID), where does that leave the oddly placed Millenia? For that matter, Universal could choose to play also at CityWalk or as part of whatever expansion takes place.

Taubman is the smallest entity of the companies mentioned here. Given the changes underway in retail both nationally and locally, will Millenia continue to make sense for the long-term?

 

Edited August 10, 2020 by spenser1058

[spenser1058]

It appears the bid from Simon/Authentic  Brands will win the day for Brooks Brothers:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/brooks-brothers-poised-to-be-acquired-by-authentic-brands-simon-venture

From FOX Business 

The group has said it will keep a majority of the 200 US locations operating, but there could be 75 or more closures.

No word so far as to whether any of the three Orlando area Brooks locations will be affected.

[spenser1058]

One of the oldest “treasure hunt” retailers, Jacksonville-based Stein Mart, has filed for bankruptcy.

Unlike other retailers, however, it’s closing all its stores and is unlikely to return unless someone buys the name and establishes an e-commerce presence online.

Stein Mart currently has several Orlando-area locations including Colonial Plaza.

https://www.wftv.com/news/trending/stein-mart-files-bankruptcy-will-close-stores/AAAVBD4MRJGTFDPIS7CFHCNSZ4/
 

From WFTV 

Edited August 12, 2020 by spenser1058

[JFW657]

Looks like there will be a plethora of options this year for those temporary Halloween stores that pop up every year around September. 

[spenser1058]

It looks like Simon and Brookfield have the upper hand on the bidding for JCPenney.

Should they be the winner, the JCPenney name will endure instead of changing to Belk, a store that mostly left our market some time ago.

Apparently, Simon would convert some closed Penney and Sears stores to amazon fulfillment centers, though. Stay tuned.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/08/13/simon-property-group-and-brookfield-are-leading-bi/
 

From Motley Fool 

Edited August 14, 2020 by spenser1058

[TRENCH]

what killed JCPenney was their lack of budget clothing. They used to sell $5 Graphic  t-shirts in masses around 2008-2011 and all the kids in middle/high school wore them because you could tell a specific shirt came from there. I came back around late 2015 to buy some things after not shopping there for a long time and everything was more than $15. I only got 2 jackets that were on discount and i have never shopped there since. whay bother when Ross, Burlington, DD's Discounts, Calvin Klein Outlets  & American Eagles Outlets have better name brands for lower prices? bit ironic 

Edited August 14, 2020 by W7edwin

[HankStrong]

On 8/12/2020 at 3:27 PM, JFW657 said:

Looks like there will be a plethora of options this year for those temporary Halloween stores that pop up every year around September. 

I saw a meme about this, the first frame was everyone looking sad about all the store closings and the second frame was a guy smiling and rubbing his hands with glee about all the Spirit of Halloween stores he was going to open.

[spenser1058]

My question is - with COVID afoot, will there be as many Halloween parties, though? If not, we won’t need as many stores in the first place and store traffic is still down anyway.

Disney and Uni both canceled their Halloween events, for example.

[JFW657]

I was thinking about going downtown and walking around in the crowd this Halloween, but now I'm wondering if there will even be a crowd. I was even going to order a Halloween themed, Jack-O-Lantern face COVID mask, which I will probably do anyway.

I saw an article, or maybe it was a TV news report, about how crappy the timing of all this virus mess is this year, what with this Halloween being the first one to fall on a Saturday in years. 

Seven years, I would guess. Six, if leap year plays into it. Something like that.

Anyway, it would have been a great opportunity for bars and other related businesses to make more money than they normally do.

[JFW657]

3 hours ago, HankStrong said:

I saw a meme about this, the first frame was everyone looking sad about all the store closings and the second frame was a guy smiling and rubbing his hands with glee about all the Spirit of Halloween stores he was going to open.

So, out of curiosity, I did a Google Image search for it.

Turns out there a several versions on the same theme.

One was that oft seen Buzz Lightyear "everywhere" meme.

Thought I'd post this one, as it's relevant to Orlando...

 

[spenser1058]

Sooo...  macy’s sent me a notification that handbags are 50-75% off “to brighten up my Monday”. What sort of purse would look good for me, do you suppose?

Wasn’t targeted marketing supposed to be a little further along by now?

[HankStrong]

20 hours ago, JFW657 said:

I was thinking about going downtown and walking around in the crowd this Halloween, but now I'm wondering if there will even be a crowd. I was even going to order a Halloween themed, Jack-O-Lantern face COVID mask, which I will probably do anyway.

I saw an article, or maybe it was a TV news report, about how crappy the timing of all this virus mess is this year, what with this Halloween being the first one to fall on a Saturday in years. 

Seven years, I would guess. Six, if leap year plays into it. Something like that.

Anyway, it would have been a great opportunity for bars and other related businesses to make more money than they normally do.

They should just give up the ghost (HA!) on October 31st and make Halloween the last Saturday in October.

[JFW657]

4 hours ago, HankStrong said:

They should just give up the ghost (HA!) on October 31st and make Halloween the last Saturday in October.

I'm not sure if we talked about that here, but there was that proposal to make the official Halloween Celebration Day the last Saturday in October, which I'm all for it.

Makes sense to me. I hope the idea is still alive.

Of course, the real, actual date of Halloween itself, can never be anything but the 31st because of the whole... All Saints Day being on November 1st, thing.

Maybe if Biden gets elected....  

[HankStrong]

Someone gets the REAL issues.

[spenser1058]

On 8/18/2020 at 7:40 AM, HankStrong said:

They should just give up the ghost (HA!) on October 31st and make Halloween the last Saturday in October.

To move Halloween, you’d technically need to move All Saints’ Day - I’m assuming some churches might have some issues with that.

Of course, if you make it a secular holiday officially designated by the government (Halloween’s not official at the moment), that solves that problem.

Now if we could get the churches to go along (after all, the Catholics moved Christmas a couple of centuries ago), I’d like it. If Halloween’s always Saturday thus making All Saints’ Day always on Sunday, I wouldn’t have to make an extra trip to church that week!

 

 

[JFW657]

I think the idea that was floated was to make the last Saturday in October the day it's celebrated (the party/Trick or Treat day IOW) not to move the actual recognized day itself. 

[smileguy]

10 minutes ago, JFW657 said:

I think the idea that was floated was to make the last Saturday in October the day it's celebrated (the party/Trick or Treat day IOW) not to move the actual recognized day itself. 

I grew up in Des Moines, we celebrated on October 30 -- Beggars' Night -- and had to earn our candy by telling jokes. 

[spenser1058]

5 minutes ago, smileguy said:

I grew up in Des Moines, we celebrated on October 30 -- Beggars' Night -- and had to earn our candy by telling jokes. 

I really like Des Moines and RAGBRAI is awesome! I could never live there, though - I’d turn into a popsicle.

I read yesterday that Iowa’s gonna be in a world of hurt if Joe’s elected prez- things were already iffy after how the caucuses went and since Joe really did badly in them, he won’t be motivated to save them. I’m not sure how they solve the tug-of-war with New Hampshire for first primary if we ditch the caucuses.

The other thing about Iowa - it always had some of the best public schools in the country but how do you convince folks to keep funding them if all the kids wanna leave the state after they graduate?

Des Moines has become a bit of an “It” city lately so maybe that will help.

[spenser1058]

An interesting tidbit as Brooks Brothers was sold in bankruptcy yesterday to the SPARC Group: for the first time since 1988, the retailer that pioneered American men’s fashion since 1818 is once again under American ownership. Let’s see if that helps revive a brand that’s been all over the place deciding what it wants to be for far too long.

Edited August 19, 2020 by spenser1058

[spenser1058]

Target has a blowout quarter:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/19/target-tgt-q2-2020-earnings.html
 

From CNBC

@jgardnerucf must have bought out the new store!

[smileguy]

4 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

An interesting tidbit as Brooks Brothers was sold in bankruptcy yesterday to the SPARC Group: for the first time since 1988, the retailer that pioneered American men’s fashion since 1818 is once again under American ownership. Let’s see if that helps revive a brand that’s been all over the place deciding what it wants to be for far too long.

What interests me is Simon's role in all of these transactions. Are they trying to vertically integrate their tenant stores?  With the decreased interest in malls, maybe Simon will take up smaller footprint locations and end up inventing the department store all over again.

[spenser1058]

On 8/19/2020 at 4:49 PM, smileguy said:

What interests me is Simon's role in all of these transactions. Are they trying to vertically integrate their tenant stores?  With the decreased interest in malls, maybe Simon will take up smaller footprint locations and end up inventing the department store all over again.

First, let me note that Simon’s a well run company (I’m biased ‘cuz they run my favorite mall, Lenox Square). Simon also worked with Indianapolis mayor Bill Hudnut on the restoration of their downtown, one of the earliest successful jobs of doing that (it was a bit sterile as we’d expect from a Republican and a mall owner, relying too heavily on corporate interests, but it showed the way).

Anyway, Simon, iirc, got involved with takeovers with Forever 21. I don’t know that it was much more at that point than seeing a problem which would have an effect on their properties, having the cash to do something about it and going for it. 

It has been somewhat successful, they’ve done a couple of others including various partners and if you can fix something that affects your business, why not? 

Buying in bankruptcy gives you a good bit of flexibility and often at a good price. Simon can also easily share marketing between their malls and the retailers. With a store as big as Penney, it could be amazing.

I have no inside info on all this, btw, I’ve just read every article I can get my hands on because I’ve been impressed with Simon over the years and retail fascinates me.

Btw, on Brooks Brothers, for upwardly mobile sorts who came up after WWII, it was always more than just a store, it was an aspirational lifestyle brand that also had an incredible tradition. Ralph Lauren (who once worked at Brooks) took the idea and ran with it but Polo was nouveau- it didn’t have the tradition. Brooks was very country -club  Republican, but it was also the brand of the Kennedys and even Obama, so it crossed that aisle also. Given the Simon background, they couldn’t help but want to save it.

Anyway, the thing I like about it is the thing I want to see in working on downtown Orlando: you see a problem, you identify a possible solution and give it a shot. If it doesn’t work, try something else until you have a winner. Simon’s can-do attitude is very appealing to me.

Edited August 24, 2020 by spenser1058