Richmond Area Weather

[Henrico Weather]

Sometimes Richmond weather can throw some pleasant surprises.  My wife and I took advantage of the freakishly warm late December weather today to walk across the James River pedestrian bridge, as temperatures flirted with the 60 degree mark.

[Henrico Weather]

Interesting look at the total snowfall over the last ten years (measured in feet). The Richmond area falls within the zone that saw 10 to 15 feet of snow for the decade. This is comparable to areas like central Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, central Missouri and southern Kansas. 

[Henrico Weather]

If you think this has been a lame winter in the Richmond area so far, you'd be factually correct. But we're in good company. The entire east and Ohio Valley are right there with us. Only central New England has seen a bumper crop of snowfall. In fact the 1 inch recorded at RIC to date, is ahead of Dulles, National, Baltimore, Harrisburg, Philadelphia and Wilmington. January still isn't looking good for snow lovers, but the pattern may change later in the month. 

[Shakman]

Great chart.  Thanks for posting.  It just takes one major snow storm to bring these totals above the norm.

Edited January 7, 2020 by Shakman

[Henrico Weather]

Map showing how central Virginia, including the Richmond area, was one of the more active parts of the state for tornado warnings over the last 10 years. 

[Henrico Weather]

Think winters have been pretty lame here in the Richmond area the last few years? Well, it's not just us. Globally, 3 out of the last 5 Januarys have set new records for warmth across the planet. This past January was the 2nd warmest since records have been kept. The chart below only goes back to 1980, but the records go back to the 1800s.

Looking forward to February, projections are for another unseasonably warm month. Prospects for cold weather and snow are very low. We are on course to have one of the lowest seasonal snow totals on record for our area.

 

Edited February 4, 2020 by Henrico Weather

[Henrico Weather]

Today is another great example of what I had described in a post up above about CAD (cold air damming) aka "The Wedge" (as in wedge of cold air), which is peculiar to our area. To refresh, this is a setup where cold air filters down from the northeast (known as a "backdoor cold front") on the east side of the Appalachians, and becomes entrenched, even as warmer air tries to push into the area from the south and southwest. The cold air dams up against the Appalachians and doesn't want to budge. This is a tough setup for forecasters, since it's difficult to know just where this cold air stands firm or gets eroded by the warmer air. It's evident in situations where we could get several inches of snow or ice here in Richmond, but just a short distance away, it could be in the 50s and 60s in Williamsburg and Va. Beach.

Unfortunately, today's CAD setup doesn't contain air cold enough for snow, but does keep us cold and wet. "The Wedge" can clearly be seen on the map below. Don't pay attention to the numbers shown in the circles, because there's some kind of glitch in the app, but just focus on the colors. You can see where the blue has settled in, and the oranges and yellows that are trying to push in, but can't make much progress. Here are some actual temps for reference:

Short Pump 42, Williamsburg 56, Virginia Beach 63, Elkins WV 56, Parsons WV 62.

Edited February 6, 2020 by Henrico Weather

[Henrico Weather]

2PM update on the post above: But once the cold air finally begins to move, it MOVES! Warmer air is pushing up in ernest, bringing heavy rain, thunderstorms and flash flooding. Temps in Short Pump have jumped up to near 50 and should continue to climb the rest of the afternoon. Just plain nasty, nasty weather. See 2PM radar capture below. 

[Henrico Weather]

Ha! I'm famous....  https://www.nbc12.com/2020/02/18/henrico-storm-spotter-compares-weather-this-february-prior-years-difference-is-stunning/

[Henrico Weather]

The satellite image below illustrates very well how Richmond is quite often on the battle line for snow events. Usually we are on the southern boundary, but sometimes the scenario is reversed and we end up on the northern extent of the event, as was the case yesterday.

If we are on the southern end, it's usually temperature related. If we are on the northern end, it's generally moisture related (as in lack of). Many times there is such a sharp gradient from no snow to a bunch of snow, you could literally cross from one to the other in the distance you could jog a half-marathon. 

The satellite image shows a clear delineation between snow and no snow in our area, with the line going  diagonally from SW to NE. Varina/Enon had accumulating snow, but the amounts dropped sharply to nothing as you went just a few miles west into central Chesterfield and Henrico. 

So, just remember to be kind to your local weather forecaster when their snow forecast doesn't quite pan out. It's darned near impossible to predict exactly where that boundary will set up, and a variance of just a few miles can make all the difference in the world. 

[Shakman]

Going to the north, there is not much significant snowfall coverage until extreme northern PA into Upstate NY.    

[Henrico Weather]

26 minutes ago, Shakman said:

Going to the north, there is not much significant snowfall coverage until extreme northern PA into Upstate NY.    

Yep. And almost all of Ohio, West Virginia and most of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Indiana and Illinois have nothing to next-to-nothing on the ground. Truly exceptional for this time of year. 

[Henrico Weather]

Hey, it can happen here. Wouldn't count on it this March, though, the way this winter has gone. 

[Henrico Weather]

Are you ready for a return to winter? Friday and Saturday night could bring frost to the area and just to the NW could actually see a few stray flakes Friday night. 

But this anomaly is confined to North America at the moment, as most of the rest of the globe is currently experiencing warmer than normal temperatures, particularly in the polar regions. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Henrico Weather

[rjp212]

Now that we have reached meteorological Fall, the tallies are out for the Summer.   Richmond's Summer was both the 5th Hottest and 6th Wettest.   What makes it unique, is the 4 hotter summers were drier, while the 5 wetter summers, were cooler (minus 1889 when only rainfall was measured)

Some other notable extremes for the state:

• Hottest high: several sites hit 102 degrees in July. Richmond peaked at 101 on July 19 and July 28.
• Coolest high: 55 in Christiansburg on June 16. It was also Richmond’s coolest summer day at 67.
• Warmest low: 83 near Cape Charles and in Chesapeake during mid-July. Richmond had mornings at 78 on July 20 and Aug. 29.
• Coldest low: 32 at Mill Gap, Highland County, on June 2. The day before, Richmond’s low was 54.
• Most 90s: 58 days in Disputanta, Prince George County. Richmond had 46, which was above normal but not a record.
• Most 100s: Six days at Lake Drummond in Chesapeake. Richmond had three, which was the most since 2012.
• Most lows in the 70s: 75 days in Norfolk. There were 57 in Richmond, which ranked third locally.
• Most days with measurable rain: 55 days near Independence in Grayson County, and Keswick in Albemarle County. Richmond had 38, more than usual but not a record.
• Most 1-inch rain days: 12 days near Herndon in Fairfax County. There were 10 such days in Richmond. Only 2004 had more heavy rain days here, at 11.

https://richmond.com/weather/not-the-hottest-not-the-wettest-but-richmond-s-summer-was-exceptional-all-the-same/article_4bf0e7bb-10c4-5855-aa3c-272770be3d79.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1

Edited September 3, 2020 by rjp212

[Henrico Weather]

Great observations! Sorry I've let this thread slide a bit. I'll try to update more regularly going into the fall season.

[I miss RVA]

16 minutes ago, Henrico Weather said:

Great observations! Sorry I've let this thread slide a bit. I'll try to update more regularly going into the fall season.

Awesome! I'll be interested to see how the fall/winter season shapes up.

[Henrico Weather]

Been I while since I posted. Thought I'd offer up a look at the upcoming winter. Most prognosticators are calling for a slightly warmer, slightly wetter than average winter. That's not a high risk forecast based on the trends of the last few winters. You could almost have used a dartboard and come up with that. The forecasters are basing this on a neutral El Nino and La Nina pattern in the Pacific that, downstream, generally produces a bland winter for our area. Not to say that a big snow couldn't sneak in somewhere along the way if the stars align to coincidentally bring some moisture and a cold air blast together over the area but, in general, the overall winter is expected to be mild.

Now, a caveat - Long range forecasts three months out are notoriously fickle. Last winter was expected to be colder and snowier than normal, but other than one good snow early, the rest of the winter was as bland as oatmeal. So, you never know. Here's the outlook in maps...

[eandslee]

Speaking of weather, 35 years ago today (8 Nov 1985) was the last time the James River saw a major flood in Richmond.  Here are some interesting photos of Richmond from the Richmond Times Dispatch of that day.  Enjoy!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[I miss RVA]

I remember it well. Richmond had three devastating floods in a span of 16 years - Camille (1969), Agnes (1972) and this one in '85. I was 7 when Camille came through - 10 for Agnes and was working downtown in '85.

[rjp212]

They’re closing the Dock St and Brander St flood gates. 
 

James River expected to crest at its highest level in 24 years, tomorrow. 

Edited November 12, 2020 by rjp212

[rjp212]

According to Andrew Freiden, today’s rain should push us into 3rd or 2nd for wettest years on record.  As of yesterday, the YTD rainfall total stood at 62.35”. 

Average is 43.6" according to: https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/richmond/virginia/united-states/usva0652

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by rjp212

[Henrico Weather]

It was a nice day to do some urban hiking, with sunny skies and temps hovering around 40. The river was really rocking from all the recent rain.  The pattern is slated to be warmer but still wet over the next couple of weeks.  No snow in the foreseeable future.