The Economy and The Markets (where are we, where are we heading, and what does it mean for the QC...)

[Dale]

3 minutes ago, tarhoosier said:

It has been answered in nearly every broadcast outlet, even Fox news now, finally. It has also been answered by every municipality, and government, large and small, worldwide. It has also been answered in the Coronavirus thread on this site. 

Interesting that you reference the two estates that are running us into the ground, government and media.

[Dale]

My numbers were off. Last flu season 647,000 were hospitalized and 61,200 died. I didn’t hear anything like that on the news. And for some odd reason, we kept eating out, European-style. And stranger still, we kept building skyscrapers. Oh, and my portfolio nearly went through the roof.

[videtur quam contuor]

Italy kept on living normally past their inflection point on the curve. Have you seen anything about the collapse of Italy recently?

[urbanlover568]

8 minutes ago, Dale said:

My numbers were off. Last flu season 647,000 were hospitalized and 61,200 died. I didn’t hear anything like that on the news. And for some odd reason, we kept eating out, European-style. And stranger still, we kept building skyscrapers. Oh, and my portfolio nearly went through the roof.

You're not helping anyone by posting misinformation. You might actually be killing people who will read your post/advice and not social distance and visit Grandma or Grandpa. 

Edited March 23, 2020 by urbanlover568

[gman430]

Stimulus package blocked again: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/coronavirus-updates-talks-on-senate-stimulus-bill-continue-vote-pushed-to-noon.html Vote them all out of office. 

Edited March 23, 2020 by gman430

[Dale]

3 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

You're not helping anyone by posting misinformation. You might actually be killing people who will read your post/advice and not social distance and visit Grandma or Grandpa. 

For those who haven’t gone into febrile seizure: I am not saying that Coronavirus is a hoax. I’m not saying I won’t get it. And not even denying that it could kill me. I’m simply asking why we’re driving the economy into the ground, in wild-eyed terror, when still deadlier viruses did not occasion such. 

 

 

13 minutes ago, tarhoosier said:

Italy kept on living normally past their inflection point on the curve. Have you seen anything about the collapse of Italy recently?

Collapse of the Italian economy ? It was teetering pre-virus.

[Matthew.Brendan]

Probably because it's simply a good enough cover story to implement world-changing actions in the economy and society as a whole. 

[davidclt]

2 minutes ago, gman430 said:

Stimulus package blocked again: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/coronavirus-updates-talks-on-senate-stimulus-bill-continue-vote-pushed-to-noon.html

Good! This package needs more support for individuals (and really only individuals), stronger protections for American taxpayers, homeowners, renters and the poor. Whatever passes should have no slush funds controlled by an individual and no funds disbursed without strong congressional oversight.

[Dale]

3 minutes ago, Matthew.Brendan said:

Probably because it's simply a good enough cover story to implement world-changing actions in the economy and society as a whole. 

Well, Mussolini got Italy working again.

[nicholas]

4 minutes ago, Dale said:

For those who haven’t gone into febrile seizure: I am not saying that Coronavirus is a hoax. I’m not saying I won’t get it. And not even denying that it could kill me. I’m simply asking why we’re driving the economy into the ground, in wild-eyed terror, when still deadlier viruses did not occasion such. 

 

 

Globally, the death rate of closed cases currently stands at 1.4%.  The flu is usually around 0.1%.  There are BILLIONS of people worldwide, and an increase in death rate of even 1% over the flu will yield staggering results.  I'm not happy that everything has been shut down either, but I understand why (our healthcare system can't handle a massive influx of new patients).

[gman430]

“Tensions were running high in the Senate on Monday, as Democrats temporarily blocked Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) from speaking from the floor as they tried to get clarity on what the schedule was. Collins called the tactics "unbelievable." Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), who was on the floor, could be overheard calling the maneuver “bulls**t.” 

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/489033-senate-fails-to-advance-coronavirus-stimulus-bill-for-second-time-in-two-days

 I love our politicians. I see the stock market is happy. 

 

Edited March 23, 2020 by gman430

[Dale]

10 minutes ago, nicholas said:

Globally, the death rate of closed cases currently stands at 1.4%.  The flu is usually around 0.1%.  There are BILLIONS of people worldwide, and an increase in death rate of even 1% over the flu will yield staggering results.  I'm not happy that everything has been shut down either, but I understand why (our healthcare system can't handle a massive influx of new patients).

On florid mortality exaggerations ...

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html

More on wild exaggerations ...

https://www.cato.org/blog/covid-19-deaths-incredible-who-estimates

AGAIN, not minimizing the present virus. I myself am heeding precautions and sheltering in place. 

 

 

 

 

[urbanlover568]

52 minutes ago, Dale said:

For those who haven’t gone into febrile seizure: I am not saying that Coronavirus is a hoax. I’m not saying I won’t get it. And not even denying that it could kill me. I’m simply asking why we’re driving the economy into the ground, in wild-eyed terror, when still deadlier viruses did not occasion such. 

 

 

Collapse of the Italian economy ? It was teetering pre-virus.

"Try running an economy with major hospitals overflowing, doctors and nurses forced to stop treating some because they can’t help all, and every moment of gut-wrenching medical chaos being played out in our living rooms, on TV, on social media, and shown all around the world.

There is no functioning economy unless we control the virus."

- Lindsey Graham

[davidclt]

41 minutes ago, gman430 said:

“Tensions were running high in the Senate on Monday, as Democrats temporarily blocked Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) from speaking from the floor as they tried to get clarity on what the schedule was. Collins called the tactics "unbelievable." Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), who was on the floor, could be overheard calling the maneuver “bulls**t.” 

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/489033-senate-fails-to-advance-coronavirus-stimulus-bill-for-second-time-in-two-days

 I love our politicians. I see the stock market is happy. 

 

The grandstanding and pearl-clutching from Sens. Collins and Cotton rather than taking steps to help individuals, isn't helping. It's time to support America's taxpayers and families.

[urbanlover568]

Wow!

[gman430]

Dow now down 800 points.

[urbanlover568]

8 minutes ago, gman430 said:

Dow now down 800 points.

Looks like @A2. (Aka. Gold bug) prediction might verify this or next month at this rate. Never doubt a gold bug!

Edited March 23, 2020 by urbanlover568

[gman430]

Kudlow thinking the same as Trump: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/489064-kudlow-says-us-will-have-to-make-difficult-trade-offs-on-coronavirus

[urbanlover568]

12 minutes ago, gman430 said:

Kudlow thinking the same as Trump: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/489064-kudlow-says-us-will-have-to-make-difficult-trade-offs-on-coronavirus

If trends in Italy continue, might mean a return to work in a week or two here. I know several Corp centers with return to work scheduled for 1 to 3 weeks but subject to change.

[davidclt]

Betsey Stevenson performs an economic analysis for slowing the pandemic.

 

[A2.]

Ok guys, technical update time. While I was a bit stunned we didn’t rally, I do believe today we put in a TEMPORARY bottom. Could totally see the market have some sort of relief rally in the next few days. (Possibly starting tomorrow)

The caveat to that is if we break today’s intraday lows then the bounce will be a pipe dream. That said, a critical target was hit this morning, and due to the VERY oversold nature of this market, it could bounce any day. So if I were a trader I would lighten up my shorts and possibly swing a trade on the long side. For those looking to get out Mr. Market might hand you a gift. IF we bounce, use it to lighten the risk load. 
 

All for now, but again, the market looks to be somewhat exhausted with the selling, at least temporarily. IF IT DOES CONTINUE TO FALL, THEN I WILL BE VERY CONCERNED. 
 

Ps—-this in no wise changes the main theme of a very deep recession with lower lows still ahead for the markets. Just giving you guys an insight into the mechanics and technicals. 

stay safe out there fellow UPers!!!

A2

Edited March 23, 2020 by A2.

[gman430]

We might finally have a deal: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/489158-senate-on-cusp-of-stimulus-deal-after-agreements-in-key-areas

[urbanlover568]

@A2.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-says-it-is-time-to-buy-gold-the-currency-of-last-resort-2020-03-24?mod=home-page

[tozmervo]

19 hours ago, A2. said:

All for now, but again, the market looks to be somewhat exhausted with the selling, at least temporarily. IF IT DOES CONTINUE TO FALL, THEN I WILL BE VERY CONCERNED. 
 

wait a minute, with everything else you've already said THIS is what would make you very concerned??

[cltheel.sdl]

@A2., where do you see markets heading tomorrow?  Big drop after a big gain day?  Or more positive growth?