The Economy and The Markets (where are we, where are we heading, and what does it mean for the QC...)

[A2.]

1 hour ago, urbanlover568 said:

@A2.

You called it!

Scariest chart I’ve seen in a while urbanlover568.

What will be equally scary is once they have  people into cash, it will go the opposite way and the dollar collapse will commence. Hope to be wrong. But sadly, it’s inevitable. 
 

road map for the crises:

1) Deflation first (mad dash for cash). Stocks, real estate (commercial and residential), etc all crash

then 

2) Central banks go nuclear and print into oblivion, thus creating an inflationary nightmare.

A2

Ps—-Dow needs to hold 17980. This massive rally went just about to my first initial target. However, once it’s over (which might be soon), it really needs to hold the above number, lest we smash through and head for 14900.

 

 

 

[videtur quam contuor]

One view: Trades by humans, (not automated, algorithm, auto balancing and so on) are at the margin. The bravest buyer and the most desperate seller make that market. In all market times.

[A2.]

5 minutes ago, tarhoosier said:

One view: Trades by humans, (not automated, algorithm, auto balancing and so on) are at the margin. The bravest buyer and the most desperate seller make that market. In all market times.

True dat^
 

A2

Here’s another REALLY scary chart. This goes back over 50 years. Have you ever seen anything like this!? Answer: no

 

[NikolaTesla]

2 hours ago, urbanlover568 said:

@A2.

You called it!

Can someone break this chart down for me in layman's terms, sorry ..just try to understand it all.  Thanks!

[KJHburg]

Never mind

Edited March 28, 2020 by KJHburg

[urbanlover568]

7 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

I dont visit this thread very often but I will drop this since it fits.  How this virus will change the economy and I think this economist makes some good points.   His last point is very interesting and I think will affect Charlotte area greatly.  After this is all over I think there will be even more accelerated movement out of the densest US cities particularly NY City and many when head south and many will end up in the Charlotte area.  I do think  exurbs smaller towns close to large cities will see more growth too.   Plus I think many pharmaceutical plants will expand or open in the south and Puerto Rico for essential medicines and I think NC will benefit greatly from that movement.

https://www.wraltechwire.com/2020/03/27/how-will-virus-crisis-affect-our-economy-many-are-the-ways-says-ncsu-economist/

Small cities are not immune to this virus. Albany GA has a third of GA's death toll for example. This virus doesn't discriminate population density.

[KJHburg]

Never mind 

Edited March 28, 2020 by KJHburg

[urbanlover568]

3 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

NYC metro has half of the US cases.  Density did contribute to this elevator buttons, subway platforms, crowded streets, stores etc. 

LMAO okay. NYC also has more car crashes than Albany, GA. NYC also has more deaths per year. Guess we should get rid of elevators in uptown and trash the light rail. Viruses are scared of suburbs. WRAL tech must have had a very slow news day.

[kermit]

11 hours ago, KJHburg said:

NYC metro has half of the US cases.  Density did contribute to this elevator buttons, subway platforms, crowded streets, stores etc. 

Sure, density may play a role in virus spread, but not a first order one. Manhattan appears to be relatively lightly hit, while lower density portions of the metro (including portions of Staten Island,  Long Island, New Rochelle and Connecticut suburbs) have seen the highest rate of cases in the metro.

In terms of infection rates nationally, San Francisco (the second highest density city in the country) appears to be doing well. While Kershaw County has one of the highest rates of infection in the Country (along with Daugherty County GA). Most epidemiologists are projecting that Mississippi, Georgia and Florida will be the next hot spots. 

The map below shows infection rates from the March 26th by metro. New York is at the top of the list, but the other high rate of infection metros/micros include Clarksdale MS, Arkadelphia AR, Huron SD, Port Huron MI, Greensburg IN and Hailey ID along with Albany GA.

 

Then there is Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea -- all among the highest density places on earth, they have managed the virus well.

History also verifies that density is not a primary drover of infections. Infection rates during the 1918 pandemic are shown below-- density is not driving the infection bus, behavior is.

Edited March 28, 2020 by kermit

[videtur quam contuor]

Content you will find nowhere else:  My mother, DOB 1909, told me that when she was 9 she became sick. This was in Henderson County Kentucky. Her mother put her to bed, she had a fever and aches and then time passed without her knowing. She does not know how many days passed, but her first memory she recalled after the fever broke and she was somewhat alert was the sound of bells ringing and ringing. In her white sheets she thought she was in heaven. She learned later it was the end of the war the church bells were pealing. She does not know if she had the flu but it almost certainly was.

[nicholas]

On 3/27/2020 at 2:55 AM, NikolaTesla said:

Funny and kinda not so funny story- My engine decided to let go last week while i was driving to Greensboro, looks like 4th cylinder failed at some point in the assembly.  So i am tearing it apart as we speak to prepare for the new "used" engine coming next week.  Brother and dad are helping me.  We are planting tomatoes, cucumbers this year!  The taste is so much better than anything at the store.  My suggestion is to make sure that you create some sort of mesh around the plants so that it stays protected.  We are modifying our bed this year to add essentially a mesh cover over the plants which we can open and close.    Noted on the margin! Wont be setting a margin account.  I need to sign up and go ahead and fun my account while i continue to study and wait out for the next dip back down.   Also if you or anyone ever needs any help with anything car related, feel free to send me a message. Happy to help.

What kind of car is it?

[NikolaTesla]

13 hours ago, nicholas said:

What kind of car is it?

Its a 14' Focus ST running with full bolt on's and a custom stage 3 tune(91,93 and e30 maps).  I was running about 25 pounds of boost at max making around 330HP/420TQ at the crank.  All data logs looked great and on more so on the safer side in terms of fueling and knock.  May  have been something previously that caused the failure.  Engine is almost out..probably tmrw, so we will see what broke.  Guessing a ring most likely.  Engine had around 100k on it.  Will be getting a new(used) engine this week.   Thanks for asking!

Edited March 29, 2020 by NikolaTesla

[nicholas]

12 hours ago, NikolaTesla said:

Its a 14' Focus ST running with full bolt on's and a custom stage 3 tune(91,93 and e30 maps).  I was running about 25 pounds of boost at max making around 330HP/420TQ at the crank.  All data logs looked great and on more so on the safer side in terms of fueling and knock.  May  have been something previously that caused the failure.  Engine is almost out..probably tmrw, so we will see what broke.  Guessing a ring most likely.  Engine had around 100k on it.  Will be getting a new(used) engine this week.   Thanks for asking!

Dang, I'm sorry man.  I've always liked the ST (and RS), great platform and exceptional aftermarket support.  I browsed around online for STs when I was car shopping last year, but they were stretching my budget a little bit, so I ended up with a late model Mk5 GTI, four door/6MT.  It was really disappointing to see that Ford decided to drop the Fiesta and Focus lines from the US market because the STs had already built up a solid core base of enthusiasts.  Anyway, hope everything works out with the new engine!  Pulling an engine is always fun, lol.

Edited March 29, 2020 by nicholas

[NikolaTesla]

4 minutes ago, nicholas said:

Dang, I'm sorry man.  I've always liked the ST (and RS), great platform and exceptional aftermarket support.  I browsed around online for STs when I was car shopping last year, but they were stretching my budget a little bit, so I ended up with a late model Mk5 GTI, four door/6MT.  It was really disappointing to see that Ford decided to drop the Fiesta and Focus lines from the US market because the STs had already built up a solid core base of enthusiasts.  Anyway, hope everything works out with the new engine!  Pulling an engine is always fun, lol.

The new ST's for the European market look great.  The 2.0 ecoboost is wonderful, so much torque and it the small KO3 spools up rather quickly.  This ST was originally wrecked in the front so i rebuilt it with the help of my brother and father.  I have driven it for about 2 months without any issues before the engine letting go.  I will post up some pictures later here once it is pulled out if anyone is interested in taking a peak.  I hope you are  enjoying your Golf!   

Sorry if this is a little off-topic for this thread.  Thanks 

[NikolaTesla]

On 3/26/2020 at 2:55 PM, A2. said:

Hey NT, check out my posts above. Don’t want to claim that I called the temporary bottom, but I kind of did. Lol

that said, the markets bounce was definitely expected, and it could rally a little more (even from here). However, this bounce will fail and it will NOT get back to where we were in February. Then the next wave down will attempt a retest at 18k on the DOW. I personally believe it might have a smaller second bounce there, luring people in (believing that it’s a successful retest of the lows) only to see it drop lower. 
 The cycle is down, and it will stay down, regardless of how “good” the news is. Even if CV is wiped off the face of the planet, the markets are going lower, MUCH lower. 
 

as for the airlines, would not be shocked to see a bankruptcy by a major player prior to the end of the year. They will also get more government handouts. Personally I believe we will see a semi Nationalization of the industry. 
 

A2

Airline stocks are coming back down..... 

[gman430]

 Holy moly: 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-of-32percent-fed-says.html

Edited March 30, 2020 by gman430

[urbanlover568]

38 minutes ago, gman430 said:

 Holy moly: 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-of-32percent-fed-says.html

And I thought 25% was hard to swallow...

[GeauxCLT]

China more likely for a V-shaped recovery?

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-31/coronavirus-could-end-dollar-s-reign-in-favor-of-china

[A2.]

Technical update. After drawing some charts this morning, April looks likely to have the completion of one of our worse waves down.
So the first wave was 36% down peak to trough, followed by a B wave up to retrace a portion of the first wave down. 

 This next wave is actually a C wave in a larger multi year cycle, which should put us somewhere between 14000-15500 on the Dow when it’s exhausted itself. 


 I will fill you all in more when the data becomes available.

 Stay safe. 
 

A2

Edited March 31, 2020 by A2.

[cltheel.sdl]

@A2., thank you for your insight.  A few questions: Can you please explain the blue and red lines on your chart?   How are you drawing your conclusion based on the chart?  When do you expect the dip to start again?

[A2.]

1 hour ago, cltheel.sdl said:

@A2., thank you for your insight.  A few questions: Can you please explain the blue and red lines on your chart?   How are you drawing your conclusion based on the chart?  When do you expect the dip to start again?

Those are just Fibonacci levels (horizontal lines). They are used to gauge where the bounce stops.

 I think what your really wanting to know (along with others) is when does the next leg down start? My best guess on time analysis (which is a bit more difficult than price analysis) is that before the end of this month, we will have our next major leg down. 
 I have drawn a lot of different charts, but they are pretty convoluted and I would spare you the messy nature of it and just say that there’s a good chance we hit 15000 or lower, before May 1st.

 My ultimate target on the DOW is lower than that, but we need to account for the policy response. If they go full blown nuclear upon the next leg down with money printing, then we will shift quite quickly from deflation to inflation. In that scenario, the Dow will actually go to all time highs, but it will be with a debased dollar. 
 For now, let’s just watch and wait. The best thing to do sometimes is nothing at all until we can muddle through these time and price points. 

A2

[cltheel.sdl]

@A2., I assume you mean "before the end of this month" to mean "before the end of April".  

[EllAyyDub]

39 minutes ago, A2. said:

My ultimate target on the DOW is lower than that, but we need to account for the policy response. If they go full blown nuclear upon the next leg down with money printing, then we will shift quite quickly from deflation to inflation. In that scenario, the Dow will actually go to all time highs, but it will be with a debased dollar. 

What more can the Fed do, besides bring overnights in the negative?  They're out of bullets; already at unlimited QE and purchasing corporate bonds on top of T's & Munis.  If you're talking legislative action, an additional +/-$4T (20% annual GDP) stimulus/infrastructure bill won't push inflation enough to completely recover losses to date.  If you're investing today on the assumption that the DOW will be somewhere between 15k and 30k by May 1st, I hope your investment horizon is 15+ years.  I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice. 

[gman430]

Trump wants $2 trillion infrastructure package: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-stimulus-trump-calls-for-2-trillion-infrastructure-plan.html I fully support it. 

Edited March 31, 2020 by gman430

[A2.]

2 hours ago, cltheel.sdl said:

@A2., I assume you mean "before the end of this month" to mean "before the end of April".  

Lol, correct. I need to get my dates right. 

1 hour ago, EllAyyDub said:

What more can the Fed do, besides bring overnights in the negative?  They're out of bullets; already at unlimited QE and purchasing corporate bonds on top of T's & Munis.  If you're talking legislative action, an additional +/-$4T (20% annual GDP) stimulus/infrastructure bill won't push inflation enough to completely recover losses to date.  If you're investing today on the assumption that the DOW will be somewhere between 15k and 30k by May 1st, I hope your investment horizon is 15+ years.  I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice. 

They can print more, but it’s the problem. They are stuck. That’s why deflation is the problem now. 

Edited March 31, 2020 by A2.