The Economy and The Markets (where are we, where are we heading, and what does it mean for the QC...)

[NikolaTesla]

9 hours ago, A2. said:

Technical update. After drawing some charts this morning, April looks likely to have the completion of one of our worse waves down.
So the first wave was 36% down peak to trough, followed by a B wave up to retrace a portion of the first wave down. 

 This next wave is actually a C wave in a larger multi year cycle, which should put us somewhere between 14000-15500 on the Dow when it’s exhausted itself. 


 I will fill you all in more when the data becomes available.

 Stay safe. 
 

A2

Thank you for this chart A2.  I am going to try to study it a bit tonight.  I also believe i am going to go with Etrade as my online broker, seems like it will do the job, buy and sell stocks lol.  No margin account, cash funded.  

What online brokers does everyone else on here use to trade stocks?

Edited March 31, 2020 by NikolaTesla

[tozmervo]

19 minutes ago, NikolaTesla said:

Thank you for this chart A2.  I am going to try to study it a bit tonight.  I also believe i am going to go with Etrade as my online broker, seems like it will do the job, buy and sell stocks lol.  No margin account, cash funded.  

What online brokers does everyone else on here use to trade stocks?

with the caveat that I only have a little bit of non401k "fun money" in the stock market, I use Robinhood

[Madison Parkitect]

49 minutes ago, tozmervo said:

with the caveat that I only have a little bit of non401k "fun money" in the stock market, I use Robinhood

I also use Robinhood. I've put a total of $10 into it and own three shares of a Canadian marijuana company called Aurora Cannabis, and boy oh boy has that stock cratered since I bought it! But I like the joke that all the stock I own is three shares of a foreign pot company worth under a dollar apiece.

[kermit]

13 hours ago, Madison Parkitect said:

I also use Robinhood. I've put a total of $10 into it and own three shares of a Canadian marijuana company called Aurora Cannabis, and boy oh boy has that stock cratered since I bought it! But I like the joke that all the stock I own is three shares of a foreign pot company worth under a dollar apiece.

When I was a kid my grandparents owned a few shares in Burger King. Every year the annual report would include a coupon for a free whopper (which they always gave to me). I mention this only because, you never know, Aurora might do the same thing one day...

Edited April 1, 2020 by kermit

[Popsickle]

27 minutes ago, kermit said:

When I was a kid my grandparents owned a few shares in Burger King. Every year in the annual report they would send a coupon for a free whopper (which they always gave to me). I mention this only because, you never know, Aurora might do the same thing one day...

The first taste is always free...

[SouthEndCLT811]

2 hours ago, Madison Parkitect said:

I also use Robinhood. I've put a total of $10 into it and own three shares of a Canadian marijuana company called Aurora Cannabis, and boy oh boy has that stock cratered since I bought it! But I like the joke that all the stock I own is three shares of a foreign pot company worth under a dollar apiece.

Oh geesh yeah Aurora is rough right now.  They brought on the company I work for to do a software implementation when times were good but we got put on hold once it cratered

[A2.]

our C-wave down might be incoming.  17890 on the DOW Is our line in the sand over the next few. If we smash through, brace for impact.

:-(

A2

[Windsurfer]

On 10/2/2019 at 9:29 AM, A2. said:

Hey guys, just to keep things clean, I’m making a new thread to discuss all things that are related to the economy and markets. I know this is UP and we all like to focus on new projects and development, but we all know that the economy is the overarching piece of the puzzle that impacts all of that. So without hijacking other threads, this seems like a great time to move any discussion to a new spot. 

Please note, this thread can be positive or negative with regards to the topic, just keep things civilized. Ha! No ones trying to be a conspiracy theorist or doom and gloomer. On the flip side, please remove rose colored glasses as well. Just keep things real and interesting. 

A2

Forgive me this dumb question, but what percentage (more or less) of the "Fed pumping out money" is included in that 2 trillion dollar bonus money?   It seems The Fed has been pumping it out a lot lately, but I was just curious about the direct implication of that stimulus. (?) 

Starting to sound like Venezuela

 

[a2theb]

13 hours ago, Madison Parkitect said:

I also use Robinhood. I've put a total of $10 into it and own three shares of a Canadian marijuana company called Aurora Cannabis, and boy oh boy has that stock cratered since I bought it! But I like the joke that all the stock I own is three shares of a foreign pot company worth under a dollar apiece.

I am unfortunately in on ACB as well holding the bag on 100 6/19 $3.50 ACB calls

[Tyrone Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Windsurfer said:

Forgive me this dumb question, but what percentage (more or less) of the "Fed pumping out money" is included in that 2 trillion dollar bonus money?   It seems The Fed has been pumping it out a lot lately, but I was just curious about the direct implication of that stimulus. (?) 

Starting to sound like Venezuela

 

All of it and then some when you take into account the Fed's open market operations designed to build back up its balance sheet ala 2008.

Fear not though: we're not Venezuela yet, nor will we be any time soon (barring a total global economic collapse).  Venezuela is an emerging market, petro dollar economy that's experienced double digit inflation for well over 30 years (and by that I mean double digit inflation EVERY year for over thirty years).

The fun part is, as someone with decades of experience and a couple of degrees in the subject, all the economic models of inflation haven't really panned out in the real world, at least not in terms of developed (think G8) nations printing money.  Japan's had thirty years of deflation, and it's done nothing but print money and quantitatively ease.  Germany had negative interest rates and could barely muster 2% inflation.  The dollar is worth approximately the same as it was in Euros 20 years ago, and only slightly less when denominated in yen, but again, that's mostly a function of Japanese deflation.

The reality is, instead of deficit spending, we could have just printed three or four trillion dollar bills and been done with it, and the crazy part is,  relatively nothing would have happened with regards to inflation or the value of the dollar abroad.  If we do that ten more times, not so much, but every developed country is in an arms race to inflate its way out of its debt load, and, basically, we're playing a game of chicken that will blow up, and probably in my lifetime, just not today.

 

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Tyrone Wiggum

[Matthew.Brendan]

I guess I just have a mental disconnect between how we can print trillions of dollars and yet still not have enough to properly fund schools, public infrastructure, etc. Where's the break down in this system?

[11 HouseBZ]

10 minutes ago, Matthew.Brendan said:

I guess I just have a mental disconnect between how we can print trillions of dollars and yet still not have enough to properly fund schools, public infrastructure, etc. Where's the break down in this system?

Was literally thinking the same thing.

[A2.]

2 hours ago, Windsurfer said:

Forgive me this dumb question, but what percentage (more or less) of the "Fed pumping out money" is included in that 2 trillion dollar bonus money?   It seems The Fed has been pumping it out a lot lately, but I was just curious about the direct implication of that stimulus. (?) 

Starting to sound like Venezuela

 

It’s honestly minuscule in that regard. The Fed is becoming the lender of last resort, which isn’t a good thing. 
 

A2

[A2.]

2 hours ago, Matthew.Brendan said:

I guess I just have a mental disconnect between how we can print trillions of dollars and yet still not have enough to properly fund schools, public infrastructure, etc. Where's the break down in this system?

It’s called wealth disparity for a reason. The more that we bailout the bankers and the elites, in the name of “saving the economy”, the worse the disparity becomes. Never before in the history of our nation has the “haves” had so much more than the “have nots”. I’m a capitalist, and even I see the evil being done by all of this. The Trillions they print goes to the top, meanwhile you get a $1200 check. It’s beyond sinister.

[urbanlover568]

24 minutes ago, A2. said:

It’s called wealth disparity for a reason. The more that we bailout the bankers and the elites, in the name of “saving the economy”, the worse the disparity becomes. Never before in the history of our nation has the “haves” had so much more than the “have nots”. I’m a capitalist, and even I see the evil being done by all of this. The Trillions they print goes to the top, meanwhile you get a $1200 check. It’s beyond sinister.

100% truth.

 

I have seen many counties fall and crony capitalism eats away at the middle class.  If the Congress and Executive branch cared about true capitalism, they would not have passed the bailout. Inflation will skyrocket. It will be slow, but you will see a erosion of your quality of life over time in the middle class. Not to be Doom and gloom here, but that's the reality right now. Nothing we can do about it now. 

[cltheel.sdl]

@A2., do you foresee a market rebound tomorrow or later this week, or do you think it's "all down hill from here" until we bottom out again towards 18,000 or less?

[Matthew.Brendan]

1 hour ago, A2. said:

It’s called wealth disparity for a reason. The more that we bailout the bankers and the elites, in the name of “saving the economy”, the worse the disparity becomes. Never before in the history of our nation has the “haves” had so much more than the “have nots”. I’m a capitalist, and even I see the evil being done by all of this. The Trillions they print goes to the top, meanwhile you get a $1200 check. It’s beyond sinister.

I guess I've been aware of this for a long time, but it's really being laid bare with these recent events. There's no pretense left in even trying to hide the greed and corruption that enables this particular economic system to not just function, but dominate.

If the "Great Recession" was a warning hiccup we're about to experience the full course of "indigestion" of a fundamentally broken system.

[A2.]

2 hours ago, cltheel.sdl said:

@A2., do you foresee a market rebound tomorrow or later this week, or do you think it's "all down hill from here" until we bottom out again towards 18,000 or less?

I see a small possibility of a bounce (if it happens it will be around the 18900  then 17850. If it smashes through those initial supports, Katie bar the door.

2 hours ago, Matthew.Brendan said:

I guess I've been aware of this for a long time, but it's really being laid bare with these recent events. There's no pretense left in even trying to hide the greed and corruption that enables this particular economic system to not just function, but dominate.

If the "Great Recession" was a warning hiccup we're about to experience the full course of "indigestion" of a fundamentally broken system.

Indeed. :-(

[gman430]

Wow. Just wow: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/weekly-jobless-claims.html

[A2.]

9 minutes ago, gman430 said:

Wow. Just wow: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/weekly-jobless-claims.html

Wow is right! In all my life, I never thought I’d see this kind of chart or this level of unemployment in such dramatic speed.

 

 

[A2.]

Biggest tip I can give this board, get at least some of your money out of the markets, and fiat currencies.

BUY CRYPTO! 
 

No one wanted to believe the crash was going to happen, and yet here we are. CV is a scapegoat for the blame to be passed to something other than the bankers who know the system is collapsing.

I will repeat it again, 

BUY CRYPTO, and Precious Metals.

you will all thank me in two years. 
 

The largest wealth transfer in all of our lives is happening before us, and too many of us are just trying to pick a bottom in the market. 
 

The entire paradigm is about to change, and fortune favors the bold. Do something for your personal future. 
 

A2

[videtur quam contuor]

A2:  I assume you have invested in a healthy stockpile of copper and lead (and saltpeter)?

 

[A2.]

29 minutes ago, tarhoosier said:

A2:  I assume you have invested in a healthy stockpile of copper and lead (and saltpeter)?

 

Lol, I’m more heavily invested in Crypto than probably anything. But that comment did make me laugh a wee bit this morning. Thank you for keeping me smiling. Tarhoosier! :-)

Ps—-not that having a few of your aforementioned items wouldn’t come in handy. Ha! 

Edited April 2, 2020 by A2.

[SouthEndCLT811]

47 minutes ago, A2. said:

Biggest tip I can give this board, get at least some of your money out of the markets, and fiat currencies.

BUY CRYPTO! 
 

No one wanted to believe the crash was going to happen, and yet here we are. CV is a scapegoat for the blame to be passed to something other than the bankers who know the system is collapsing.

I will repeat it again, 

BUY CRYPTO, and Precious Metals.

you will all thank me in two years. 
 

The largest wealth transfer in all of our lives is happening before us, and too many of us are just trying to pick a bottom in the market. 
 

The entire paradigm is about to change, and fortune favors the bold. Do something for your personal future. 
 

A2

Any advice beyond Bitcoin?  I had read about a few others that seem to be picking up steam .  Still all seems too new and volatile which is what I would have probably been saying about Bitcoin in 2010 haha

[A2.]

13 minutes ago, SouthEndCLT811 said:

Any advice beyond Bitcoin?  I had read about a few others that seem to be picking up steam .  Still all seems too new and volatile which is what I would have probably been saying about Bitcoin in 2010 haha

My largest position is Tezos (pays a cool 6% just to hold it) and I own a bit of Chainlink. Love it’s technology and it will be critical to the crypto infrastructure going into the future.
 
Bitcoin will always be the digital gold position for me (along with holding real gold and silver)

I also took a speculative position in Ripple and would like to add to Ethereum. 
 

for what it’s worth I added to all the above mentioned positions the last three days, including Bitcoin this morning. 
 

I personally believe life transforming wealth will be generated with Blockchain moving into the future. It will also displace more workers as you will be able to do a lot of things with Blockchain tech, that now requires a human. In the future EVERYTHING will be tokenized: real estate, the markets, etc

imagine buying Microsoft in the early 90’s, that’s what buying crypto is like. We are talking 1000x returns. I personally know people who invested a thousand bucks a few years back into some Alt coins, who made literally hundreds of thousands in mere months. We are in the second inning of a nine inning ball game. So I am begging those I care about to put something into it. Even if it’s a little. 

A2

Edited April 2, 2020 by A2.