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The Economy and The Markets (where are we, where are we heading, and what does it mean for the QC...)


A2.

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11 minutes ago, A2. said:

My largest position is Tezos (pays a cool 6% just to hold it) and I own a bit of Chainlink. Love it’s technology and it will be critical to the crypto infrastructure going into the future.
 
Bitcoin will always be the digital gold position for me (along with holding real gold and silver)

I also took a speculative position in Ripple and would like to add to Ethereum. 
 

for what it’s worth I added to all the above mentioned positions the last three days, including Bitcoin this morning. 
 

I personally believe life transforming wealth will be generated with Blockchain moving into the future. It will also displace more workers as you will be able to do a lot of things with Blockchain tech, that now requires a human. In the future EVERYTHING will be tokenized: real estate, the markets, etc

imagine buying Microsoft in the early 90’s, that’s what buying crypto is like. We are talking 1000x returns. I personally know people who invested a thousand bucks a few years back into some Alt coins, who made literally hundreds of thousands in mere months. We are in the second inning of a nine inning ball game. So I am begging those I care about to put something into it. Even if it’s a little. 

A2

How/where do you buy this?

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5 minutes ago, GeauxCLT said:

How/where do you buy this?

Easiest way is Coinbase.com. But if you prefer rock solid security you can use a digital wallet like a nano or Trezor. 
 

ps—-Coinbase exec just got plucked by the Treasury department. Hmmmmmm. You think that they know something that we aren’t privy to? Answer: Yes

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3 minutes ago, SouthEndCLT811 said:

Thanks A2.  Ripple was what I was looking at for an investment of "what do I feel comfortable risking" for a long position.

Did the trade with my Coinbase account I set up way back in the day but I'll be purchasing a Trezor to hold onto them as well

Smart move. As for Ripple, a lot of peeps like it because it’s cheap, but of all my holdings I hold the least of it. My only hang up is the amount of it in circulation. I still think it makes some massive gains, but I like Bitcoin more. And don’t think you have to buy an entire Bitcoin, you can by $10 if you wanted, as its divisible. I believe Bitcoin will be well north of $250,000 in the next few years. And I have some methodology to believe that to be highly accurate. 
 

Ps—-with all this messaging on crypto, you guys might have just made me want to buy some more, lol. I think I just might. 
 

Edited by A2.
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9 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

This is catastrophic. 

Yup. Add to that the hilarious market ramp in this Twilight Zone we  now live in. This pump, will dump. 
 

6 minutes ago, kermit said:

A Public Service Announcement:

Please do your own due diligence before investing anything other than fun money in any asset.  I am also intrigued by A2’s perspective and I would like to subscribe to his newsletter, but please keep in mind that: 

  • a) all investment advisors are wrong more than half the time (I am not saying that A2 is acting formally as an advisor, but to most of us he is ‘just some guy on the internet’)
  • b) trading requires very different skills and perspectives than investing (and I feel like many of us here are not aware of that)

I am not knocking A2, and really enjoy his posts, and I don’t think he is shilling at all (but Beware, many finance gurus are shills). I am saying is don’t take his word about markets and asset classes as gospel — let his ideas open up new horizons for you BUT do your own research before putting money into something! If you are not comfortable with concepts like bid-ask spreads, volume, or liquidity and how they apply to what you are considering purchasing, then you probably should take a beat and think about what else you may need to learn before putting your hard-earned money down.

Something tells me that A2 wont disagree with any of this.

1000%!!!

Anything I say is my OPINION, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. 
 

thanks for posting this Kermit! 
 

Ps—like KJHburg, it looks like I owe you some donuts for that post. :-)

pss—-Crypto is HIGHLY VOLATILE, if you do choose to do some research and find you would like to invest, just be prepared to ride a roller coaster. I’m a believer if your not in a position to lose your entire investment, then your best bet is to NOT do it 
 

A2

Edited by A2.
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1 minute ago, urbanlover568 said:

I can not believe the Dow is up 500 points. We are in the twilight zone.

Fed doing its best to print away. Lol! It’s almost comical, if it wasn’t so sad. 

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Ok, let me change the topic back to the topic: 

what do you guys think will happen going forward with all of us working virtually? By that, does the entire planet shift to less commercial real estate? Less office time? More connectivity via our virtual workspace to shed corporations of massive costs in bricks and mortar?

personally I believe towers are here to stay, but it does beg some critical thought. 
 

anybody care to comment?

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1 hour ago, A2. said:

My largest position is Tezos (pays a cool 6% just to hold it) and I own a bit of Chainlink. Love it’s technology and it will be critical to the crypto infrastructure going into the future.
 
Bitcoin will always be the digital gold position for me (along with holding real gold and silver)

I also took a speculative position in Ripple and would like to add to Ethereum. 
 

for what it’s worth I added to all the above mentioned positions the last three days, including Bitcoin this morning. 
 

I personally believe life transforming wealth will be generated with Blockchain moving into the future. It will also displace more workers as you will be able to do a lot of things with Blockchain tech, that now requires a human. In the future EVERYTHING will be tokenized: real estate, the markets, etc

imagine buying Microsoft in the early 90’s, that’s what buying crypto is like. We are talking 1000x returns. I personally know people who invested a thousand bucks a few years back into some Alt coins, who made literally hundreds of thousands in mere months. We are in the second inning of a nine inning ball game. So I am begging those I care about to put something into it. Even if it’s a little. 

A2

A2- How hard would you say will it be to sell and generate cash from Bitcoin later on?  

I was planning on getting some Spirit, Delta and maybe some Alcoa here soon...just waiting it out a bit more..

 

 

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Also, can anyone breakdown the shift of wealth mentioned earlier for me?  

So the $1200 relief looks good on paper but in reality is terrible for the middle class? 

Also....i guess i sold my house on time.  I was planning to sell my home sometime this year regardless of this happening, i ended up selling it in January.  

Thanks! 

2 minutes ago, joenc said:

Open plan offices are great for spreading the flu and covid19, if they becomes less popular, it will result in less employee density and more sq footage needed for physical offices.

I hated the last office i was in, which was an open office plan with the higher ups having offices surrounding the open layout.   We were all in clusters of around 7-8 people.  

Edited by NikolaTesla
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28 minutes ago, NikolaTesla said:

A2- How hard would you say will it be to sell and generate cash from Bitcoin later on?  

I was planning on getting some Spirit, Delta and maybe some Alcoa here soon...just waiting it out a bit more..

 

 

It’s a very liquid market, but still small for now. If I were a beginner, I’d stick with the majors like Bitcoin. 
 

One thing to note, I’m  not giving up on the stock markets in total, just in the near to mid term. When it’s all over there will be bargains galore! If we are still here, and there’s no Zombie apocalypse, then we will rise again and have a ton of time to pick some investments that are generational buys! :-)

A2

19 minutes ago, kermit said:

In my industry (higher ed) the shift online is going VERY badly. No one is happy about how it is working. Online ed does have some niche applications, but the bulk of the population believe that f2f is a much more efficient way to learn. Students, as a group, are eager to get back to campus.

I can see many low-end office activities (e.g. call centers) shift to home. These jobs require little more than a script and the need for wormers to learn new things is minimal (and is normally handled by passing the call off to someone else). Unfortunately the shift of low-wage office jobs to home will shift many costs on to workers.

Higher-end office jobs (professional activities which require feedback, design, creativity and experimentation) are (IMO) going to remain mostly f2f in centralized offices. Nearly all of these jobs involve a degree of human-engineering (e.g. convincing someone to approve something, learning new concepts and integrating concepts from multiple people) that is incredibly inefficient (or impossible) when not f2f.  Trends over the past decade show us that many of these folks work at home a couple days per week, but need to put in facetime at the big house each week as well — this tends to increase demand for office space in the CBD (‘halfway to everywhere’) rather than suburban office space (imagine if you live in Huntersville but need to report to a Ballantyne office twice a week).

The rise of the Southend office market also shows us that many workers (particularly younger ones) prefer working in places that offer entertainment (e.g. lunch and afterwork drinks) options nearby. The workers who an in demand enough to choose where they work will cause office environments to gravitate towards dense areas.

We have been talking about technologically-driven decentralization of office jobs being inevitable since the 1960s, but over the past 15 years we have seen downtown (and TOD) office space become much more in demand (think Amazon HQ2 or GE or Lowes or McDonalds or Marriott or.....) despite the best telecom capacity ever. 

One way to think about the continued need for office space for knowledge industry workers is to think about how legislation is made. AFIK, there is no democratic legislature anywhere in the world that meets remotely to conduct normal business. The reason why is much of the backroom horse trading stuff that is fundamental to legislation becomes impossible in a remote environment.  The production of new ideas often requires the same sort of back channel stuff.

In short, I do see some office space getting abandoned, but I think the places getting hit the hardest are suburban business districts like Ballantyne, Sandy Springs or North Raleigh. I am not quite saying these places become the new Rustbelt, but I think rents will drop to the point where it makes no sense to build there. Downtown  office space in large metros (roughly Charlotte’s size, bigger if they have no major HQ presence) will continue to grow.
 

(Everyone here knows I have a bias towards density. While this bias comes from the research I do as part of my job, its possible I am bending the narrative to fit my views)

Excellent post! 
 

A2

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Related to the WFH question. My household currently has three people in it who need to frequently attend online meetings. It is currently impossible to be anywhere in my normal-sized house to be where I can’t hear one or more people talking. It is a freaking nightmare.

It will be very expensive for low-middle income people to retrofit their homes so that more than one person can WFH at a time.

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Just now, kermit said:

Related to the WFH question. My household currently has three people in it who need to frequently attend online meetings. It is currently impossible to be anywhere in my normal-sized house to be where I can’t hear one or more people talking. It is a freaking nightmare.

How is your internet still up? Lol I'm down to only using 1 device at a time now.

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4 minutes ago, kermit said:

Related to the WFH question. My household currently has three people in it who need to frequently attend online meetings. It is currently impossible to be anywhere in my normal-sized house to be where I can’t hear one or more people talking. It is a freaking nightmare.

It will be very expensive for low-middle income people to retrofit their homes so that more than one person can WFH at a time.

Amen to that! I have four kids and am working virtually and they still have classes online and are doing Zoom interactions. It stinks not only from a bandwidth issue, as I’m running multiple devices, but it’s near impossible to find some quiet in my home to conduct virtual seminars and training. I can’t wait to get through this. 

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5 minutes ago, kermit said:

Related to the WFH question. My household currently has three people in it who need to frequently attend online meetings. It is currently impossible to be anywhere in my normal-sized house to be where I can’t hear one or more people talking. It is a freaking nightmare.

It will be very expensive for low-middle income people to retrofit their homes so that more than one person can WFH at a time.

I feel for you there Kermit!  Not surprising considering that most American homes are pretty much made of paper and sticks.  :tw_confused:

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