The Economy and The Markets (where are we, where are we heading, and what does it mean for the QC...)

[SouthEndCLT811]

UBI is a great concept if it can be funded.   Tim Ryan's plan back of the napkin math would be roughly $217B a month (155 million workers, quick search returns roughly 70% make under $130,000 therefore 108.5M * $2,000). 

I worry as A2 cautioned if we go down the path of UBI with our current tax laws in place we're just printing our way to devaluing our currency further.  Yet another reason why November's election is so crucial.  If we have a path forward to close loopholes that allow for corporate tax avoidance a UBI would be much more successful of a program long term. 

[davidclt]

2 hours ago, urbanlover568 said:

Frontier Communications Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/frontier-communications-files-for-chapter-11-bankruptcy-11586955706

Isn't this the company that purchased Verizon's buggy whip business and equipment/customers in the markets where Verizon didn't see economical build outs for modern infrastructure? I know my parents were in their footprint in the old GTE/Verizon part of Florida and to say service was lacking as and since Frontier took over probably gives them too much credit. I'm sad they will have to restructure.

[go_vertical]

Until the time I was 13 my mom was an operator for GTE down in Central Florida. When she first started they were still using the old switchboard with plugs and wires everywhere. I haven't heard of or thought about GTE in many years. Thank you for giving me a little nudge down memory lane. 

[urbanlover568]

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

Initial claims were 5,245,000 for the week ending 4/11 (-1,370,000).

Insured unemployment was 11,976,000 for the week ending 4/4 (+4,530,000).

[A2.]

Brace for impact! Market about to crash again ! Good day fellow UPers

so to be specific! You ALL must get ready. I’m not here to Promote Fear, but to WAKE YOU ALL UP!!!! Get out!

Edited April 21, 2020 by A2.

[NikolaTesla]

13 minutes ago, A2. said:

Brace for impact! Market about to crash again ! Good day fellow UPers

What are we down so far since open, 2-3%? 

Edited April 21, 2020 by NikolaTesla

[A2.]

1 minute ago, NikolaTesla said:

What are we doing so far since open, 2-3%? 

Today is a baby step. The days ahead will make you really understand what I’m speaking of. Prepare 

[NikolaTesla]

Just now, A2. said:

Today is a baby step. The days ahead will make you really understand what I’m speaking of. Prepare 

Funny enough i was preparing to buy tmrw or Thursday.  I am going to hold off and wait it and see how it plays out.  

[A2.]

I will say something that many here will turn their nose up to. But get right with God, prepare for the worst, and always HOPE for the Best! I always have enjoyed UP, and while not ideologically aligned with many, I Love you all. I pray I’m wrong, but this is about to get ugly, and I pray that you guys stay safe. 
 

love,

a2

[Richhamleigh, DC]

Why aren't low oil prices good for the economy in the mid-term?   I understand that there are lot of companies in the oil biz, but as the economy gets up and rolling again, cheap fuel will make it easier for more companies like airlines, railroads, manufacturers, distributors, etc. to make more money.  For the consumer, the implications are great (too bad it's not fall going into winter).

[NikolaTesla]

A2--- Would you mind sharing some of your thoughts behind that...just curious!  Thank you!  Do you think the perfect storm is brewing. 

[urbanlover568]

is this the second hump you were talking about @A2. ?

[A2.]

Yes sir. The rally we experienced over the last three weeks was expected, now we go lower. The question is, do the March lows hold? My thoughts are that they don’t and we head towards 14700 on the DOW. Then we figure out what the Fed does, which will be print money like crazy, and then everything inflates. Essentially meaning the end of the $USD

heres the chart drawn from a few days ago, but the levels are true.

2 hours ago, NikolaTesla said:

A2--- Would you mind sharing some of your thoughts behind that...just curious!  Thank you!  Do you think the perfect storm is brewing. 

The clouds are nigh. And the rumble of thunder is rolling in. Brace for impact.

Edited April 21, 2020 by A2.

[DH17]

6 hours ago, A2. said:

Yes sir. The rally we experienced over the last three weeks was expected, now we go lower. The question is, do the March lows hold? My thoughts are that they don’t and we head towards 14700 on the DOW. Then we figure out what the Fed does, which will be print money like crazy, and then everything inflates. Essentially meaning the end of the $USD

I do think you are quite possibly right on the first and second parts (massive run down and a test on the previous low, quite likely beyond that low). The markets can act irrational longer than people can remain solvent, but only for so long. The pain on main street will eventually reach wall street if it goes on long enough, no matter how much money the Fed pumps.

Now for the third part (end of USD) - I think there is still yet slack in our monetary policy. Maybe I just have too much faith in the system, but I still think printing is relatively irrelevant for a long time. Eventually we will have the pay the piper, but I'm not this bearish on the third point. Yet.

I hope my more positive take is closer to reality when all of this is said and done. I do definitely appreciate the input you bring to this thread and the board, A2.

[A2.]

1 hour ago, DH17 said:

I do think you are quite possibly right on the first and second parts (massive run down and a test on the previous low, quite likely beyond that low). The markets can act irrational longer than people can remain solvent, but only for so long. The pain on main street will eventually reach wall street if it goes on long enough, no matter how much money the Fed pumps.

Now for the third part (end of USD) - I think there is still yet slack in our monetary policy. Maybe I just have too much faith in the system, but I still think printing is relatively irrelevant for a long time. Eventually we will have the pay the piper, but I'm not this bearish on the third point. Yet.

I hope my more positive take is closer to reality when all of this is said and done. I do definitely appreciate the input you bring to this thread and the board, A2.

Damn son. Your a smart cookie. I like that. Let’s roll with it.

and I’m impressed by your response. Seriously 

Edited April 22, 2020 by A2.

[a2theb]

9 hours ago, DH17 said:

Now for the third part (end of USD) - I think there is still yet slack in our monetary policy. Maybe I just have too much faith in the system, but I still think printing is relatively irrelevant for a long time. Eventually we will have the pay the piper, but I'm not this bearish on the third point. Yet.

I hope my more positive take is closer to reality when all of this is said and done. I do definitely appreciate the input you bring to this thread and the board, A2.

As long as the united states has warheads, aircraft carriers and can bully the rest of the world, the dollar will be fine.

[NikolaTesla]

I see that the DOW has recovered a little bit today with the oil price stabilizing somewhat, but i am guessing this is very short term?  I can imagine that a lot of cities in the Gulf Coast will be going bankrupt soon.??

Edited April 22, 2020 by NikolaTesla

[urbanlover568]

23 hours ago, A2. said:

Yes sir. The rally we experienced over the last three weeks was expected, now we go lower. The question is, do the March lows hold? My thoughts are that they don’t and we head towards 14700 on the DOW. Then we figure out what the Fed does, which will be print money like crazy, and then everything inflates. Essentially meaning the end of the $USD

heres the chart drawn from a few days ago, but the levels are true.

The clouds are nigh. And the rumble of thunder is rolling in. Brace for impact.

already there...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-buying-41-billion-assets-052412583.html

[A2.]

9 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

already there...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-buying-41-billion-assets-052412583.html

Truly mind numbing 

[NikolaTesla]

Im surprised with all of the news the last few days the DOW has not dropped? Anyone else surprised or just me? 

[kermit]

3 minutes ago, NikolaTesla said:

Im surprised with all of the news the last few days the DOW has not dropped? Anyone else surprised or just me? 

Yes, I am surprised by the market's stamina here. Having said that, if any of us could predict daily moves in the market then we would be a good bit richer than David Tepper. It can't be done consistently.

[kermit]

Good news for Charlotte municipal finance. Not sure what the terms are, is Charlotte forced to get voter approval on any new bond issue?

Even with the reduced population requirements only 3 NC counties and 4 NC cities are eligible.

 

 

Edited April 27, 2020 by kermit

[kermit]

Trying to learn a new GIS, bear with me....

This is the change in unemployment rate (block group level) from the week of March 7 to the week of April 18. Darker red is largest increase (18-29% increase).

If anyone knows how to add a legend in QGIS please let me know.

Data source: https://www.appliedgeographic.com/unemploymentdata/

Here is unemployment rate for week of April 18. Darker reds are higher unemployment rates. Darkest red is 26-42%!

The banker-belt is faring well. I am surprised about the N Meck cluster of moderately high unemployment.

 

EDIT: kludged together a half-assed legend. I am not a fan of the layout function in QGIS

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by kermit

[kermit]

Lots of green shoots visible on my bike ride today through Southend. Talked to a bar owner who was doing some remodeling in preparation for social distancing / lower occupancy, he was hoping to reopen in the third week of May. Brewing was also underway at Sunstead, the first activity I have seen there since the shutdown.

Lots of remodeling happening at Max and Lolas's as well, but it looks like it will open as something else.

Edited April 29, 2020 by kermit

[KJHburg]

^^^ when I look at that map I see high concentrations of apartments where many lodging, restaurant employees may live (with the exception of the Mint Hill cluster no apartments really out there)   Most of the apartments in north Meck are located very close to 77.