The Economy and The Markets (where are we, where are we heading, and what does it mean for the QC...)

[Carpe Diem]

I'd love your take on the economy, the market and everything in between for the rest of 2020 and next year.  Your thoughts, ideas and what's come next so can prepare for the future.  Thanks.

[A2.]

4 hours ago, Carpe Diem said:

I'd love your take on the economy, the market and everything in between for the rest of 2020 and next year.  Your thoughts, ideas and what's come next so can prepare for the future.  Thanks.

Thanks for the invite to speak CarpeDiem!

First let me state for the record, I’m friends with many on UP and am a bit of an “OG” on the site going back more than a decade. It’s in that light that I want to publicly state that I don’t have a malicious bone in my body and the ones who’ve known me over the years know this. I also would like to state for the record that my response to NYtoCLT was not intended to go against ANYTHING he stated in his post. As to his post, he is quite right in many regards with what he stated, with some minor exceptions (ie Being invested during the Great Depression, and the 70’s). 
 That said, I’ve learned that with any type of Social Media, it’s sometimes best to leave predictions behind, as it can turn into a real tantrum, real fast amongst the community. So many here love the QC and for all the right reasons. As for the markets, I again would like to state that while I was correct on my assessment of the fallout in the Economy, I NEVER dreamt of the nuclear options the the Fed would use, solely to keep financial markets buoyant. It’s honestly, a bit scary in my line of work to see the amounts of money they have printed. As such, it is a bit reckless to throw out a thesis on investing (Especially one that applies to some and not all), not knowing the person on the other side might be taking it as their road map to riches. 
 To conclude though, I will say that being in a position that protects is one of my primary focuses in this economic downturn. As such, people should be positioning away from things that are tied to Fiat currencies, and yes that includes the US$. Shorter term the US$ is the worlds currency and it holds value, longer term that will not be the case. Buy things that PROTECT your savings: crypto, land, precious metals, and yes, even Food. We are in a Bad downturn that doesn’t seem to be getting better. And just because the market has bounced, doesn’t change Main Street. And it also doesn’t mean the bounce can be sustained. Time will tell.  
 It’s often been said “we’re all in this together “, and to a point that’s correct. This economic downturn is impacting millions the world over, except the elites who have prospered at the expense of the bottom. The Fed and their ilk have done a masterful job of yet another wealth transfer to the top echelons of society. You must realize that this isn’t going to change, at least in the near term. 
 As for the markets, if your ever interested you can follow my Twitter feed. Together with a group of friends we have made massive amounts of money over the last few months doing the exact things I’ve spoken about above. Again not Financial advice, but it’s nice to have charts and signals given with people that work in the biz. Plus it’s a community much like UP is for the QC. 
 But always remember your always responsible for your own actions. To any I’ve offended & any I’ve led astray, let me be the first to apologize. I’m only here because I Love the QC, and the people associated with UP. All I want is for ALL to prosper in the long run!
 

godspeed

 

A2 

[Norm2]

On 8/3/2020 at 12:09 AM, A2. said:

Thanks for the invite to speak CarpeDiem!

First let me state for the record, I’m friends with many on UP and am a bit of an “OG” on the site going back more than a decade. It’s in that light that I want to publicly state that I don’t have a malicious bone in my body and the ones who’ve known me over the years know this. I also would like to state for the record that my response to NYtoCLT was not intended to go against ANYTHING he stated in his post. As to his post, he is quite right in many regards with what he stated, with some minor exceptions (ie Being invested during the Great Depression, and the 70’s). 
 That said, I’ve learned that with any type of Social Media, it’s sometimes best to leave predictions behind, as it can turn into a real tantrum, real fast amongst the community. So many here love the QC and for all the right reasons. As for the markets, I again would like to state that while I was correct on my assessment of the fallout in the Economy, I NEVER dreamt of the nuclear options the the Fed would use, solely to keep financial markets buoyant. It’s honestly, a bit scary in my line of work to see the amounts of money they have printed. As such, it is a bit reckless to throw out a thesis on investing (Especially one that applies to some and not all), not knowing the person on the other side might be taking it as their road map to riches. 
 To conclude though, I will say that being in a position that protects is one of my primary focuses in this economic downturn. As such, people should be positioning away from things that are tied to Fiat currencies, and yes that includes the US$. Shorter term the US$ is the worlds currency and it holds value, longer term that will not be the case. Buy things that PROTECT your savings: crypto, land, precious metals, and yes, even Food. We are in a Bad downturn that doesn’t seem to be getting better. And just because the market has bounced, doesn’t change Main Street. And it also doesn’t mean the bounce can be sustained. Time will tell.  
 It’s often been said “we’re all in this together “, and to a point that’s correct. This economic downturn is impacting millions the world over, except the elites who have prospered at the expense of the bottom. The Fed and their ilk have done a masterful job of yet another wealth transfer to the top echelons of society. You must realize that this isn’t going to change, at least in the near term. 
 As for the markets, if your ever interested you can follow my Twitter feed. Together with a group of friends we have made massive amounts of money over the last few months doing the exact things I’ve spoken about above. Again not Financial advice, but it’s nice to have charts and signals given with people that work in the biz. Plus it’s a community much like UP is for the QC. 
 But always remember your always responsible for your own actions. To any I’ve offended & any I’ve led astray, let me be the first to apologize. I’m only here because I Love the QC, and the people associated with UP. All I want is for ALL to prosper in the long run!
 

godspeed

 

A2 

Hey A2, what is your Twitter name?

[A2.]

53 minutes ago, norm21499 said:

Hey A2, what is your Twitter name?

https://mobile.twitter.com/jt15190663

[kermit]

Except in San Francisco

 

[NYtoCLT]

5 minutes ago, kermit said:

Except in San Francisco

 

My anecdotal experience is that fleeing to the suburbs is a half truth.  I know a lot of people who left Manhattan, but almost all left to go live with family in the burbs, they aren't relocating permanently/buying.  So, Zillow data wouldn't show this as relocating to the burbs.  My friends are starting to move back to NYC, but people who had family with decent sized houses (or vacation homes) all left.  This goes for my friends who are still single and friends with young children.  As a rule of thumb, if you had a family place you could go to, you left, but only temporarily, not a permanent move.

[cltheel.sdl]

I don't know if inventory change tells the whole story as many of the people "fleeing" to the suburbs are currently renters, and those who own in the city may just be deciding to not list right now.  The people leaving the city are moving to the burbs primarily for space and affordability reasons, in addition to "aging out" of urban living.  Prior to the pandemic, Millenials were starting to move out of urban areas and towards the suburbs as they started to have families and "socializing" with peers started to become less important.  I do think that the pandemic will accelerate this move to the burbs for Millenials, and due to the large size of this cohort, there will be a noticeable outflow of demand.  I'm seeing it in my peer group (low 30's), and I'm right smack dab in the Millenial generation.  A lot of Millenials are not seeing any benefit to living in urban areas at the moment, and moving to the burbs provides them with WFH space and more bedrooms for their growing families.  Anecdotally, my first child was born last month and I'm moving to the burbs next month, and I know many peers who have done the same in the past couple of years.

[urbanlover568]

On 8/3/2020 at 12:09 AM, A2. said:

Thanks for the invite to speak CarpeDiem!

First let me state for the record, I’m friends with many on UP and am a bit of an “OG” on the site going back more than a decade. It’s in that light that I want to publicly state that I don’t have a malicious bone in my body and the ones who’ve known me over the years know this. I also would like to state for the record that my response to NYtoCLT was not intended to go against ANYTHING he stated in his post. As to his post, he is quite right in many regards with what he stated, with some minor exceptions (ie Being invested during the Great Depression, and the 70’s). 
 That said, I’ve learned that with any type of Social Media, it’s sometimes best to leave predictions behind, as it can turn into a real tantrum, real fast amongst the community. So many here love the QC and for all the right reasons. As for the markets, I again would like to state that while I was correct on my assessment of the fallout in the Economy, I NEVER dreamt of the nuclear options the the Fed would use, solely to keep financial markets buoyant. It’s honestly, a bit scary in my line of work to see the amounts of money they have printed. As such, it is a bit reckless to throw out a thesis on investing (Especially one that applies to some and not all), not knowing the person on the other side might be taking it as their road map to riches. 
 To conclude though, I will say that being in a position that protects is one of my primary focuses in this economic downturn. As such, people should be positioning away from things that are tied to Fiat currencies, and yes that includes the US$. Shorter term the US$ is the worlds currency and it holds value, longer term that will not be the case. Buy things that PROTECT your savings: crypto, land, precious metals, and yes, even Food. We are in a Bad downturn that doesn’t seem to be getting better. And just because the market has bounced, doesn’t change Main Street. And it also doesn’t mean the bounce can be sustained. Time will tell.  
 It’s often been said “we’re all in this together “, and to a point that’s correct. This economic downturn is impacting millions the world over, except the elites who have prospered at the expense of the bottom. The Fed and their ilk have done a masterful job of yet another wealth transfer to the top echelons of society. You must realize that this isn’t going to change, at least in the near term. 
 As for the markets, if your ever interested you can follow my Twitter feed. Together with a group of friends we have made massive amounts of money over the last few months doing the exact things I’ve spoken about above. Again not Financial advice, but it’s nice to have charts and signals given with people that work in the biz. Plus it’s a community much like UP is for the QC. 
 But always remember your always responsible for your own actions. To any I’ve offended & any I’ve led astray, let me be the first to apologize. I’m only here because I Love the QC, and the people associated with UP. All I want is for ALL to prosper in the long run!
 

godspeed

 

A2 

@A2. I wonder why in the latest government negotiations there was put in writing of  “digital dollar wallets” and “FedAccounts”.  Makes me certain of a dollar debasement coming soon. Banks have been having liquidity problems even before the pandemic. Economically, this country is in for some serious trouble. I predict dark economic times coming, worse than the depression. we must stay positive/strong for our children and loved ones though. Keep strong in your faith, whatever religion you practice.  Prosperous times will come again, whether that be in a year, 10 years, or 20 years beyond. 

 

EDIT: Just saw this headline: "Buffett's Berkshire buys gold miner Barrick, slashes Wells Fargo and JPMorgan, dumps Goldman stake amid coronavirus" This is significant because Berkshire was FAR from a Gold Bug and ridiculed them. 

Edited August 15, 2020 by urbanlover568

[Carpe Diem]

This market is getting way high and is there any warning signs?  Everything is rising so fast today especially tech.   I am not sure if and when everything will just go straight down.

[urbanlover568]

19 minutes ago, Carpe Diem said:

This market is getting way high and is there any warning signs?  Everything is rising so fast today especially tech.   I am not sure if and when everything will just go straight down.

The housing market is booming. New numbers yesterday are amazing. 

[urbanlover568]

Orders and manufacturing continue to improve:

[urbanlover568]

Spending has further increased 

[urbanlover568]

US Adds 1,400,000 jobs and Unemployment Rate falls from 10.2 to 8.4!

 

Car and Truck sales continue to climb. Industrial production increased 4% in August. 

 

[urbanlover568]

The economy continues to improve! 

[kermit]

4 more years of this?

[urbanlover568]

29 minutes ago, kermit said:

4 more years of this?

[urbanlover568]

New Unemployment numbers today from the Department of Labor continue to show improvement

[kermit]

1 hour ago, urbanlover568 said:

New Unemployment numbers today from the Department of Labor continue to show improvement

only 10 million more people still out of work than in March. Two thumbs up to the Trump economy!

[urbanlover568]

3 minutes ago, kermit said:

only 10 million more people still out of work than in March. Two thumbs up to the Trump economy!

25 million to 10 million in 4 months. That's a marked improvement.  

[kermit]

On 10/1/2020 at 7:42 PM, urbanlover568 said:

That's a marked improvement.  

Not if you are one of the 10 million.

We are still in the single worst period of job loss in the US since the Great Depression. What is worse is all this was self-inflicted, but I guess "it is what it is."

EDIT:

Edited October 3, 2020 by kermit

[urbanlover568]

39 minutes ago, kermit said:

Not if you are one of the 10 million.

We are still in the single worst period of job loss in the US since the Great Depression. What is worse is all this was self-inflicted, but I guess "it is what it is."

My graph came directly from the DOL, not Bezos's papers. Must still be hurt he lost the defence contract to Microsoft. 

[urbanlover568]

Unemployment is now 7.9%

All sectors gained jobs, except for public.

 

White unemployment rate decreased by 0.3%

Black/African American unemployment rate decreased by 0.9%

Asian unemployment rate decreased by 1.8%

[JRNYP2C]

And let's not forget those that are still employed, but are working on reduced hours or schedules.  I have a friend that is still employed (albeit tenuously) and her employer is having a difficult time making payroll.  This is a small business owner, and this is happening to him.  I feel very concerned for my friend, as she has the normal payments like most of us - mortgage, car, insurance, etc.  Just because you may fall into the "no longer unemployed" category, I'm sure there are subsets of that which are still having a difficult time getting on.

[urbanlover568]

37 minutes ago, JRNYP2C said:

And let's not forget those that are still employed, but are working on reduced hours or schedules.  I have a friend that is still employed (albeit tenuously) and her employer is having a difficult time making payroll.  This is a small business owner, and this is happening to him.  I feel very concerned for my friend, as she has the normal payments like most of us - mortgage, car, insurance, etc.  Just because you may fall into the "no longer unemployed" category, I'm sure there are subsets of that which are still having a difficult time getting on.

Agreed, the hours did get cut. Hopefully the recent improvements continue. 

 

[kermit]