The Economy and The Markets (where are we, where are we heading, and what does it mean for the QC...)

[kermit]

 

 

[rancenc]

19 minutes ago, kermit said:

 

 

Delicious cuisine flavored with carbon monoxide "seasoning"! 

 

[JRNYP2C]

I did a double take on the source and realized the complete satire!!!

[kermit]

This is unexpected:

Time period is January 1, 2020 to “mid September”

source is: https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/moving-data-shows-exit-from-cities/

I am not vouching for these data, I am only holding this up as worthy of discussion.  We are doing worse than California, Texas is doing worse than us....

Edited November 23, 2020 by kermit

[15895]

1 hour ago, kermit said:

This is unexpected:

Time period is January 1, 2020 to “mid September”

source is: https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/moving-data-shows-exit-from-cities/

I am not vouching for these data, I am only holding this up as a surprise.

It seems like more expensive areas losses while their neighbors gained. 
 

NC-SC

DC - MD

NY - NJ - CT

Wonder if it’s just shuffling around their respective border states. 

[joenc]

Think some young people moved back with their parents

[atlrvr]

Yeah, while I'm aware of quite a few recent young professional transplants that have temporarily moved back to parents in midwest/northeast, maybe more to do with college students with classes cancelled...I suspect NC, NY, CA (not sure in TX) have above avg shares of out of state students, compared to CT, SC, NJ.

[videtur quam contuor]

This appears to be USPS postal service so change of address requests which could be temporary and in this environment likely many are temporary. Students, family changes, work from (another) home.

Edit: I wonder how many of these are GPO change. GPO (General Post Office) means "Send my mail to post office in X city and to be held there for me to retrieve". No forwarding address for the recipient. Usually for those relocating for 30-60 days, or who know they will pass through X city at some time in the future days and weeks while traveling. Used more often in the past when mail contact was the only contact.

Source: Post Office work was a tradition in my family for three generations. Almost 145 years total, including my father for 22 years. I was a Christmas temp for four weeks while a college student on leave.

Edited November 23, 2020 by tarhoosier

[urbanlover568]

 

#STONKS!

[KJHburg]

27 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

 

#STONKS!

its terrible what is happening to the hedge fund managers.  they won't be able to make their mortgages on their 3rd home in Miami or add on to their Hamptons estate.  

seriously I think this is funny that the small investors might cost some of the billionaires some money.   when they crush a business with leverage buyouts and so forth and leave 1000s of people unemployed they laugh all the way to the bank.    I am enjoying watching this and I know Gamestop is not worth anywhere near that for sure.   and yes I am a capitalist perhaps you should be careful shorting stocks as much as the people are bidding and puffing other ones up.  

Elon Musk comments

Elon Musk, hater of short sellers, weighs in on AOC's Robinhood stance | Fox Business

and one of my favorites Charles Payne was en fuego about this

Charles Payne unloads on Wall Street 'whining' about GameStop, AMC frenzy: 'Now you're losing' | Fox Business

and even Mr Tepper Panthers owner weighed in

David Tepper warns market speculators: 'It didn't end well in 1999' (cnbc.com)

Wall Street has always been a casino.

 

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by KJHburg

[urbanlover568]

TO THE MOOOONNNNNN

 

 

 

 

[urbanlover568]

Hedge Funds wanted to bankrupt AMC and cost the US 40K+ jobs and billions in revenue/taxes. Thank you to WallStreetBets users for effectively bailing them out. 

‘Meme stock’ rally rescues AMC theaters from $600M debt

https://www.polygon.com/movies/2021/1/29/22256360/amc-stock-price-reddit-rally-robinhood-debt-conversion

[kermit]

I am finally able to verbalize why work from home sucks (for me).

PreCovid I worked, in person,  with lots of professionals in various development and real estate fields. In the course of those interactions we exchanged a large amount of small talk, and that was how I got the bulk of my gossip about development projects in Charlotte (things in the pre-announcement stage and the 'mood' of the market). In the virtual world I get none of that since gossip is not on the zoom meeting agenda. Now that the time between meetings, lunch and breaks are solitary, there is very little opportunity to 'shoot the crap'.  While this is not a huge economic loss to me, I can see how over the long run, it will reduce my depth of knowledge.

I am sure that my experience is not unique. I would think nearly all professionals have lost some measure of professional gossip in their daily WFH lives. I would bet the long term impact of that loss will eventually show up in productivity statistics. So, based on this single data point, the implications for the CRE market are pretty clear (<-- that is an intentionally ridiculousness statement). Just one old-guy's opinion. 

shrug.... 

Edited May 26, 2021 by kermit

[JRNYP2C]

23 hours ago, kermit said:

I am finally able to verbalize why work from home sucks (for me).

PreCovid I worked, in person,  with lots of professionals in various development and real estate fields. In the course of those interactions we exchanged a large amount of small talk, and that was how I got the bulk of my gossip about development projects in Charlotte (things in the pre-announcement stage and the 'mood' of the market). In the virtual world I get none of that since gossip is not on the zoom meeting agenda. Now that the time between meetings, lunch and breaks are solitary, there is very little opportunity to 'shoot the crap'.  While this is not a huge economic loss to me, I can see how over the long run, it will reduce my depth of knowledge.

I am sure that my experience is not unique. I would think nearly all professionals have lost some measure of professional gossip in their daily WFH lives. I would bet the long term impact of that loss will eventually show up in productivity statistics. So, based on this single data point, the implications for the CRE market are pretty clear (<-- that is an intentionally ridiculousness statement). Just one old-guy's opinion. 

shrug.... 

For me it has been the opposite.  I'm in a back office function, and there is stress.  However, my commute was the worst and I can honestly say that even though I'm working longer hours, I am less stressed b/c I'm not wasting 2+ hours of my day sitting in traffic on the interstate and local neighborhoods.

What I do can be accomplished over the phone and e-mail (for compliance reasons mostly).  I deal with a lot of people all over the country, so outside of my core group (and we are gaining some in St. Louis), I do most of my work through e-mail and phone calls.  I picture some sort of hybrid occurring for us down the road.  In all honesty, I can see myself going into the office maybe 3 or 4 days a month.  That is my preference and I hope it turns out that way.

I can definitely see those that were in careers such as @kermit where there was a sense of camaraderie.  For us accounting/finance nerds, we can get what we need to with little to no human interaction. 

[kermit]

“Cities are dead”

 

[Blue_Devil]

51 minutes ago, kermit said:

“Cities are dead”

 

Thats what I have been saying. We are about to have an Apartment boom in uptown the likes of which this city has never seen. People want activity after being stuck in a house for a year +. I think COVID will make cities grow even faster as spending every day in a suburb has made a lot of people realize how boring it all is. 

[urbanlover568]

On 5/27/2021 at 11:48 AM, Blue_Devil said:

Thats what I have been saying. We are about to have an Apartment boom in uptown the likes of which this city has never seen. People want activity after being stuck in a house for a year +. I think COVID will make cities grow even faster as spending every day in a suburb has made a lot of people realize how boring it all is. 

Because being stuck in a Shoebox that you don't even own and throw away money to is so "fun". LOL

 

Rents are rising because the cost of materials are through the roof and labor is hard to find now. #Inflation

[urbanlover568]

On 5/25/2021 at 5:47 PM, kermit said:

I am finally able to verbalize why work from home sucks (for me).

PreCovid I worked, in person,  with lots of professionals in various development and real estate fields. In the course of those interactions we exchanged a large amount of small talk, and that was how I got the bulk of my gossip about development projects in Charlotte (things in the pre-announcement stage and the 'mood' of the market). In the virtual world I get none of that since gossip is not on the zoom meeting agenda. Now that the time between meetings, lunch and breaks are solitary, there is very little opportunity to 'shoot the crap'.  While this is not a huge economic loss to me, I can see how over the long run, it will reduce my depth of knowledge.

I am sure that my experience is not unique. I would think nearly all professionals have lost some measure of professional gossip in their daily WFH lives. I would bet the long term impact of that loss will eventually show up in productivity statistics. So, based on this single data point, the implications for the CRE market are pretty clear (<-- that is an intentionally ridiculousness statement). Just one old-guy's opinion. 

shrug.... 

Usually a employer pays an employee to perform a service for a period of time and only that. 

[kermit]

Apple has announced that it plans for most employees to return to the office three days per week (Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays) with a few being back five days per week.

I would think that strategies like these will (overall) increase the demand for central office space (physical facetime only works when everyone is in the same place) and reduce the demand for satellite office locations, many of which are geared to reducing commuting times which will now be less important as workers commute for fewer days (and why bother going to a satellite office when you can just WFH instead). 

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2021/06/03/apple-tim-cook-return-to-office.html

Edited June 3, 2021 by kermit

[Blue_Devil]

3 hours ago, kermit said:

Apple has announced that it plans for most employees to return to the office three days per week (Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays) with a few being back five days per week.

I would think that strategies like these will (overall) increase the demand for central office space (physical facetime only works when everyone is in the same place) and reduce the demand for satellite office locations, many of which are geared to reducing commuting times which will now be less important as workers commute for fewer days (and why bother going to a satellite office when you can just WFH instead). 

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2021/06/03/apple-tim-cook-return-to-office.html

I actually believe we are going to see a surge in office space in uptown, as most companies are going to come back in some capacity to the office. I know Wells, BOA, Ally, and Truist will all be at least 3 days a week, and most will be 4 (Fridays are always work from home optional). That makes up a large portion of Uptown. We are lucky in that our main Uptown clients, the financial sector, likes having people in the office (Lucky for uptown, not for people working there). As financial companies move here, office space will be a continued need. I mean, we have to be one of the few mid size cities moving forward on Spec office space. 

[urbanlover568]

Apple Staff Resist Call to Return to Office 3 Days a Week: Verge

Apple’s “remote/location-flexible work policy, and the communication around it,” has already led to some resignations, The Verge cited the letter as saying.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-05/apple-staff-resist-call-to-return-to-office-3-days-a-week-verge

[Blue_Devil]

On 6/5/2021 at 1:14 PM, urbanlover568 said:

Apple Staff Resist Call to Return to Office 3 Days a Week: Verge

Apple’s “remote/location-flexible work policy, and the communication around it,” has already led to some resignations, The Verge cited the letter as saying.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-05/apple-staff-resist-call-to-return-to-office-3-days-a-week-verge

Fewer and fewer companies in the Fortune 500 are allowing full time work from home. None of the major Banks, Apple, Google, Amazon, Honeywell, Microsoft are all bringing people back. People can resign all they want... where are they going to go?  Smaller companies will fill up fast. 

[urbanlover568]

10 hours ago, Blue_Devil said:

Fewer and fewer companies in the Fortune 500 are allowing full time work from home. None of the major Banks, Apple, Google, Amazon, Honeywell, Microsoft are all bringing people back. People can resign all they want... where are they going to go?  Smaller companies will fill up fast. 

I know many in the companies you mentioned that are now full time remote. You get paid to perform a service and only that. If your company wants you to return to work to keep a better eye on you, you were out the door anyways. 

[Blue_Devil]

22 hours ago, urbanlover568 said:

I know many in the companies you mentioned that are now full time remote. You get paid to perform a service and only that. If your company wants you to return to work to keep a better eye on you, you were out the door anyways. 

Every single company I mentioned has publicly stated they are bringing their employees back. The news releases are available.  If people were working from home before covid, then yah they are not likely going to change. 

[urbanlover568]

1 hour ago, Blue_Devil said:

Every single company I mentioned has publicly stated they are bringing their employees back. The news releases are available.  If people were working from home before covid, then yah they are not likely going to change. 

I know people at these companies who converted from in-office to fully remote. It's not rocket science for a company to figure out reducing your office footprint saves money($1 Billion for Google example) and is environmentally friendly.