The Economy and The Markets (where are we, where are we heading, and what does it mean for the QC...)

[rancenc]

Based on Mr Bezos's opinion of workers, I will think that Amazon will continue to beef up automation so as to decrease the need for pesky humans

https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-polices-based-jeff-bezos-belief-all-workers-are-lazy-2021-6

[KJHburg]

Interesting.

Economy's bubble – from stocks to real estate – could be about to pop, say UNC experts | WRAL TechWire

[tozmervo]

Weird times we are in. 

I just saw memos today regarding the two largest manufacturers of cement board siding - Hardie and Nichiha - saying that they are not accepting any new orders until November and October, respectively. They are so backed up on existing commitments that they are effectively shutting sales down for months. 

[KJHburg]

There is a big backlog of ships not only in the Ports of LA and Long Beach but America's 4th busiest container port and the one that supplies most goods to the southeast Savannah.  I saw 6 container ships from shore today but according to MarineTraffic.com there are about 16-17 waiting to come into port.  I have seen a few before but never this many ships waiting and certainly not 6 ships lined off Hilton Head Island.  and Savannah is a  very efficient port in moving the goods so this is a major backup. 

MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic

might have to enlarge photo but there at 6 ships out there and have been waiting all day 

Edited October 19, 2021 by KJHburg

[videtur quam contuor]

I was in Beaufort SC this weekend and there had been two cruise liners parked in Port Royal, now down to one. Charleston was stuffed with cruise ships and needed more parking space. Port Royal was a SC state port until 2004 and on IC Waterway. Cruise liner draft is sufficient to clear bottom and anchorage is available.

[InTheYear2000]

13 hours ago, Seabrooke said:

As the Fed and media slowly inch the narrative along toward the economic crisis unraveling in a dramatic meltup of crypto and stocks (all are fundamentally overvalued, every last one of them), the hedge fund owned media is now blaming the people who are saving businesses for the fallout that would never have happened if those hedge funds didn’t bet that retail investors would give up, sell their shares for fear of loss, and let the businesses they supported go bankrupt.

Inflation is about to get real. I just spent $7 on pickles.

If I own a share, I shouldn’t be pressured to sell it. The price is not going up because retail investors and me are buying more (that’s only a small part of it). This is banks telling hedgefunds they have to close their short positions (buy back the shares they borrowed and immediately sold to try and bankrupt the company in the beginning). The problem is that there are waaaaaaaaay more shares that were borrowed and sold short than were ever supposed to exist. They have to buy those back too.

To give you one small example of how big this is, Michael Jordan has been rumored to have been tipped off in January that shorting GameStop was easy money. He is now estimated to have lost at least $500 million, or half of his net worth.

And the SEC has confirmed that in January that was not a short squeeze, and shorts closing their positions did not seem to be a heavy factor in the price action.

This is going to go parabolic, I expect GameStop low end to be around $1000 a share in the next couple of months. 

 

 

Counter point: https://www.sec.gov/files/staff-report-equity-options-market-struction-conditions-early-2021.pdf

See Figure 5(page 27) TLDR: The shorts have covered. 

[urbanlover568]

This was the point the Illegal Naked Short sellers were exposed.  They were bankrupting companies and almost succeeded with AMC, GME, and TSLA. Almost costing thousands of jobs and crippling the commercial retail sector in the process.  

 

[sclark]

Moderators: Do we need this thread? 

[rancenc]

2 hours ago, sclark said:

Moderators: Do we need this thread? 

Me personally....I would say NO!

[cltheel.sdl]

I think it's interesting to hear the different perspectives.  I think it's appropriately placed in the Coffee House.

[KJHburg]

Inflation numbers came out this morning 6.8% highest in 39 years and this will not end well for the US economy.  Look for higher interest rates and slowdowns ahead.  

Consumer price index November 2021 (cnbc.com)

[tozmervo]

7 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

Inflation numbers came out this morning 6.8% highest in 39 years and this will not end well for the US economy.  Look for higher interest rates and slowdowns ahead.  

Consumer price index November 2021 (cnbc.com)

How long has the federal interest rate been effectively 0%? 

[KJHburg]

6 minutes ago, tozmervo said:

How long has the federal interest rate been effectively 0%? 

too long and it has made some bubbles in various assets.  Look for higher mortgage rates and major slowdown in price increases in homes and that actually is  good thing.  If they go up too quick  look for drop in sales and prices may be off their highs.  I am not predicting a major price decrease locally but these increases are completely unsustainable and will slow back to normal rates of appreciation which historically in Charlotte is 3-4% a year.  

[urbanlover568]

29 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

Inflation numbers came out this morning 6.8% highest in 39 years and this will not end well for the US economy.  Look for higher interest rates and slowdowns ahead.  

Consumer price index November 2021 (cnbc.com)

Scary thing is that if things with Russia, Taiwan, or Iran turn for the worst, the FED has zero cushion to absorb that economic blow now. Hopefully they taper more rapidly and raise interest rates fast, which is what they should have done months ago. 

Edited December 10, 2021 by urbanlover568

[urbanlover568]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10667971/BlackRock-president-warns-entitled-generation-needs-brace-shock-shortages.html

[Madison Parkitect]

13 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10667971/BlackRock-president-warns-entitled-generation-needs-brace-shock-shortages.html

Man, fudge that guy.

Edit: Haha, I didn't know this site had a built-in filter. I didn't type "fudge."

Edited March 31, 2022 by Madison Parkitect

[rancenc]

Positive accolades concerning North Carolina's economy

https://www.dailytarheel.com/article/2024/04/city-north-carolina-economic-growth-report-business

[KJHburg]

did not know where to put this but this seems appropriate for this thread.  

The Biz Journal listed the 10 biggest subleases available of office space in Charlotte and interestingly most are in the suburbs.  650,000 sq ft of sublease office space is uptown and the rest in the suburbs including some big chunks in South Carolina.   With sublease space the original tenant is on the hook for the rent but the space is available or empty and rented out to the end of that lease term. 

""Charlotte's sublease office space is holding steady after more than tripling since 2020. The difference now, however, is the majority of what's out there is older, less attractive space that's becoming more and more difficult to lease.

Currently, about 3.2 million square feet of sublease space is available throughout the Charlotte metro, according to CoStar data. That number began to rise rapidly after the start of the pandemic, going from about 900,000 square feet to 3.2 million in just a few years. Chuck McShane, CoStar director of market analytics for the Carolinas, said the most substantial increases happened between 2020 and 2021.

"That started to level off, but it hasn't really decreased since then ... I think we're at peak levels of sublease space," he said. "What we have on the market now are either really large blocks of space that are going to be difficult for a single tenant to take, or space in older buildings where there are better, newer options out there."""

Belk Headquarters: 473,698 square feet  West Tyvola Road 

Innovation Point: 276,075 square feet   The Lash Group space in Kingsley in Fort Mill

One Wells Fargo Center: 192,468 square feet  this is old Wells Fargo space   Uptown 

Bailes Ridge Corporate Park: 151,503 square feet  Indian Land SC

Gold Hill Commons: 105,844 square feet also in Fort Mill SC

Ballantyne Three at 13515 Ballantyne Corporate Place, 104,746 square feet

 550 South at 550 S. Caldwell St., 98,971 square feet;  Uptown

Innovation Park at 7349 IBM Drive, 75,602 square feet;  University area

One South at 101. S. Tryon St., 75,302 square feet  Uptown

Resource Square Three at 10815 David Taylor Drive, 68,091 square feet;   University area

 So even though Uptown has some large direct vacancies most of this sublease space is in the suburbs and quite a lot in South Carolina.  

Suburban office buildings bear the bulk of Charlotte's sublease space - Charlotte Business Journal (bizjournals.com)

 

Edited yesterday at 12:14 AM by KJHburg