The Economy and The Markets (where are we, where are we heading, and what does it mean for the QC...)

[cltheel.sdl]

@A2., what website are you using to trade in precious metals?

[A2.]

2 hours ago, cltheel.sdl said:

@A2., what website are you using to trade in precious metals?

I don’t trade PM. I own them outright. Paper promises are not real. Get the REAL Metal. Apmex.com is a great vendor if you need one. 
you can trade any and all assets (including real estate with reits), but ALWAYS own PM. Even though you can trade them in the futures market, or even buy ETF’s, always TAKE POSSESSION.

 

A2

Edited March 19, 2020 by A2.

[A2.]

3 hours ago, cltheel.sdl said:

@A2., what website are you using to trade in precious metals?

For what it’s worth both Gold + Silver are screaming buys. Silver in particular is so undervalued it’s mind blowing. The paper and physical markets are at an extreme disconnect. Spot prices show $12, but I PROMISE you, you won’t be able to buy any physical at that price. You’d be lucky to get it at $16-$18, and even then it’s a crazy great deal.

(ps—-not financial advice)

just my $.02,

A2

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by A2.

[Madison Parkitect]

11 minutes ago, A2. said:

I don’t trade PM. I own them outright. Paper promises are not real. Get the REAL Metal. Apmex.com is a great vendor if you need one. 
you can trade any and all assets (including real estate with reits), but ALWAYS own PM. Even though you can trade them in the futures market, or even buy ETF’s, always TAKE POSSESSION.

 

A2

Now I'm imagining you have a closet full of gold bars up in the mountains.

[cltheel.sdl]

9 minutes ago, A2. said:

For what it’s worth both Gold + Silver are screaming buys. Silver in particular is so undervalued it’s mind blowing. The paper and physical markets are at an extreme disconnect. Spit prices show $12, but I PROMISE you, you won’t be able to buy any physical at that price. You’d be lucky to get it at $16-$18, and even then it’s a crazy great deal.

(ps—-not financial advice)

just my $.02,

A2

 

Where do you think Silver should be priced at the moment?

[A2.]

23 minutes ago, cltheel.sdl said:

Where do you think Silver should be priced at the moment?

What your really asking is where do I think Silver is headed? 

answer: higher than you can imagine. Especially in a currency crises.

Ps—-they use the paper markets to naked short the metal. JP Morgan has already been found guilty by the CFTC of doing this. You may ask why do they care? Why do they artificially keep the price suppressed of these PM’s? Because it exposes their fiat empire. So they keep it suppressed, lest the masses see the emperor isn’t wearing any clothes. Bottom line silver and gold have always been money. EVERY Fiat currency experiment has failed. Every last one. Protect your wealth)
 

28 minutes ago, Madison Parkitect said:

Now I'm imagining you have a closet full of gold bars up in the mountains.

Lol, I wish I had it like that. 

But maybe one metal to stack:

lead

The latter to protect the former. Ha!

ps—-when you go through a crisis, the best thing you can do is go through your priority of needs:

1) shelter

2) water

3) food

4) protection (read that the way you’d like)

5) wealth preservation

6) Urban Planet access

hahahaha 

Edited March 19, 2020 by A2.

[urbanlover568]

@A2.  what's your thoughts on these trillions of dollars in bailouts? Will they keep the Dow from going lower?

[A2.]

3 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

@A2.  what's your thoughts on these trillions of dollars in bailouts? Will they keep the Dow from going lower?

Possibly, but the dollar will be debased. Let me show you something that will enlighten you.

below is the Venezuelan stock market. On the surface you’d say that they were in an epic bull market. However the reason for the hockey stick spike is because their currency collapsed. So in other words, sure they could send the DOW soaring, but if a loaf of bread costs $250, does it really matter!?

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by A2.

[wilmore]

wow, a gold bug thinks the dollar will be debased? color me shocked

[A2.]

37 minutes ago, wilmore said:

wow, a gold bug thinks the dollar will be debased? color me shocked

Most people that are gold bugs are correct though. The dollars debasement is quite shocking when looking at the historical value of the dollar. Once upon a time the dollar was as “good as gold”. Those days are behind us. 
That said, I don’t mind a jab. I’d much prefer that our economy was on solid footing instead of a hollowed our foundation that is crumbling before our very eyes. 
 In the end Gold is more of a wealth preserver and not a wealth creator. Those are very important differences. 

PS—I consider it a compliment when I’m labeled a gold bug. Even though it’s less than 10% of my portfolio, it’s the MOST important insurance one can have against the race to the bottom amongst global currencies 
 

Another chart that will make one cry and this is only through 2013, it’s much lower now. This is the dollar since 1913. Why start at 1913 you ask??? That was when the Fed was born. The Fed doesn’t have your back, only their own. And for what it’s worth they are a PRIVATE BANK, and not a Government institution. So many people have this thought that the FED is associated with the Federal government. Nothing could be further from the truth. Their “money magic” has trashed our currency and left our country in debt to our eyeballs. 
 

A2

(aka Mr. Gold Bug )

Edited March 19, 2020 by A2.

[gman430]

So how many people have to lose their jobs and how much money does this country have to spend before everybody realizes that it’s not worth it anymore? 

[gman430]

Thank you to Boeing and BMW for keeping your manufacturing plants open:  https://www.foxcarolina.com/investigations/bmw-usa-releases-statement-as-greer-plant-remains-operational/article_000a352a-6950-11ea-8edc-47a878ff5fb4.html  

Edited March 19, 2020 by gman430

[JerseyBoy]

16 minutes ago, gman430 said:

the silly fake media

Can we not, please?

[atlrvr]

Meh, the dollar is fine as long as long as the world needs crude oil.

[A2.]

15 minutes ago, atlrvr said:

Meh, the dollar is fine as long as long as the world needs crude oil.

Tru dat^ 

hope all has been well atlrvr. Long time, no see. I pray you and yours are well. :-)

 

A2

[videtur quam contuor]

19 hours ago, gman430 said:

I still don’t understand why they don’t just quarantine people over 65 and those with underlying health conditions. Wouldn’t that be easier than trying to quarantine the entire country while killing off the economy and everybody’s 401K? 

You do not understand the concept of contagion. You also do not understand the course of this disease. 40% of hospitalized patients were 20-54. The greatest risk, after death, is the impact on the local health care providers from the pandemic patient influx for care. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.html

[urbanlover568]

Workers across the Tampa Bay area don't know where their next paycheck will come from as more businesses close their doors and lay off many of their employees. Florida's hotel industry alone has lost as many as 400,000 jobs due to the outbreak.

[atlrvr]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/walmart-announces-special-cash-bonuses-for-hourly-associates-during-national-health-crisis.html

Walmart to pay special cash bonuses, hire 150,000 workers in response to coronavirus demand

2 hours ago, A2. said:

Tru dat^ 

hope all has been well atlrvr. Long time, no see. I pray you and yours are well. :-)

 

A2

Thanks man... hopefully we can get together soon.  Hope you're doing well up in the nice clean air!

[cltheel.sdl]

An anecdote: I work for a multifamily real estate investment company and we've had 2 dispositions worth $132 million fall through in the past 48 hours.   The buyers either got cold feet or their primary equity sources got cold feet.  This is going to be a common story for the immediate future in real estate, with deals being delayed or falling through.  We should expect RE transaction volume to fall off substantially through at least June, probably longer.  We also have several development deals that were in the midst of due diligence on and decided to punt on them last week until this situation has been largely resolved.  Definitely a bummer, but don't be surprised to see this become commonplace throughout the real estate world.  

[southslider]

23 hours ago, atlrvr said:

Meh, the dollar is fine as long as long as the world needs crude oil.

If demand recovers faster in Asia than Europe and the Americas, then manufacturing is already a lot closer to its consumers, needing a lot less oil for global shipping.  Slower recovery in the US also means less demand for oil domestically, keeping oil prices low.  Plus, if recovered nations, like China, hold more American debt, well, the dollar could be "meh."

Edited March 20, 2020 by southslider

[tozmervo]

Kind of a general question -

Has the post-2008 stress testing left our banking system with a lot more emergency cushion to deal with a crisis? I can't help but wonder, if this had occurred pre-2008, that half the banking industry would have already closed their doors for good.

 

[A2.]

1 hour ago, tozmervo said:

Kind of a general question -

Has the post-2008 stress testing left our banking system with a lot more emergency cushion to deal with a crisis? I can't help but wonder, if this had occurred pre-2008, that half the banking industry would have already closed their doors for good.

 

Yes and no. On their general balance sheet they are well capitalized. The problem is the off balance sheet derivatives that are well over 1.6. quadrillion amongst global banks. 
 If those fail, then even well capitalized institutions will blow out. The central banks know that if they back stop it all, it’s the end of their fiat money empire. 
 Personally I believe we are heading towards a full blown currency crises (include in that a sovereign bond crises), followed by a new digital crypto currency that will allow for an economic reset. I could even see a currency with SDR backing (special drawing rights). 
 

What that exactly looks like is anybody’s guess. But suffice it to say, many debts will be written down and bankruptcy will be a very common word going forward. 
The thing you can watch to know we are close to a reset  is when the dollar rally reverses course and begins to fall. Right now, all debts are settled in $USD, as it retains the world reserve currency status. And it is rallying to the moon. Again when that changes (notice I didn’t say if), that will be the tell-tell sign that we are heading into that reset. 

 Everything  we are witnessing is unprecedented, so don’t be shocked by anything that happens. Bottom line, the world we once knew is going to be considerably different moving forward.

great question though. And well timed.

 

A2

Edited March 20, 2020 by A2.

[A2.]

Lastly, don’t be shocked if in the next few days, weeks, and months war talks begin to escalate. I don’t want to speculate, but their are tons of signs that the geopolitical stage is being set up for it. Between Russia, Saudi Arabia, and even China, some big players are lining up for what could get rather ugly. Finger pointing will reign supreme. The world at large is not the biggest fans of the US, and with what’s going on that can really escalate into something more than a mere economic disruption.

stay safe. enjoy life. 
 

A2

Edited March 20, 2020 by A2.

[urbanlover568]

@A2. What's a death cross in the markets? Apparently we hit that today. What's the significance?

[DH17]

2 hours ago, urbanlover568 said:

@A2. What's a death cross in the markets? Apparently we hit that today. What's the significance?

Not A2, but it just means that the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average.

Not sure it really means anything in this case as it was bound to happen since we had such a massive decline. It's not truly predictive, in that everyone can literally see it coming on the chart a mile away, but it is an indicator that we are in bear territory (again, everyone knew that we were given what just happened).

Edited March 20, 2020 by DH17