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The Economy and The Markets (where are we, where are we heading, and what does it mean for the QC...)


A2.

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3 hours ago, DH17 said:

Not A2, but it just means that the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average.

Not sure it really means anything in this case as it was bound to happen since we had such a massive decline. It's not truly predictive, in that everyone can literally see it coming on the chart a mile away, but it is an indicator that we are in bear territory (again, everyone knew that we were given what just happened).

What DH17 said. in normal times it is an indicator of trouble. This eclipses that by light years. Too be honest, technical analysis is quite helpful in identifying  certain support and resistance levels. But, this is such an unprecedented move down that we are in uncharted waters. It’s the most severe downward crash in terms of speed and percentage drop EVER (including the Great Depression). Let that sink in......

I am currently watching several levels for a monster rally. I’m hoping that they hold. But I don’t want to give false hope. Personally I  thought the market was going to bounce today. One positive (albeit a small positive) is  that we did hold the intraday lows on Wednesday. Don’t read too much into it, but it’s at least a small positive.
 

Again, I’m not a perma Bear or even a Gold Bug (as I am sometimes jokingly called).

I truly wish the best for this country and all on this board. I pray that somehow this pain will be mitigated, but I am just trying to be as real and transparent  as I can to my virtual buddies on UP. 

 I am ultimately Bullish on America! And I’m Bullish on the People of this Great country. Sure we have massive differences, but generally speaking, we are a hard working people, that care about the well being of our neighbor. Let’s all hope that this blows over, but just be prepared just in case it doesn’t. 

Godspeed! 

A2

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1 hour ago, urbanlover568 said:

The federal government has asked states to withhold unemployment figures to reduce the shock. 

Doesn’t shock me. It would be shockingly bad. I will have to close my eyes when the GDP numbers come through. 
 

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23 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

U.S. Stock Futures

arrowDown.gif S&P -114.50  /  -5.00%
Level 2,174.00
Fair Value 2,292.66
Difference -118.66
Data as of 6:05pm ET
arrowDown.gif Nasdaq -340.25  /  -4.88%
Level 6,628.75
Fair Value 6,979.56  
Difference -350.81  
Data as of 6:05pm ET
arrowDown.gif Dow -954.00  /  -5.01%
Level 18,086.00
Data as of 6:05pm ET

Limit down, again. :tw_dissapointed:

On 3/21/2020 at 12:17 PM, gman430 said:

The stimulus package has grown to over $2 trillion:  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/21/kudlow-says-coronavirus-relief-package-worth-more-than-2-trillion.html

Do I hear $3 trillion? 

Sadly, It will be trillions more before this is all over. Enjoy the dollar “pop” before the dollar “drop “. No easy way out. 
 One thing to note, people don’t know pain, until they experience a currency crash. This is many times worse than a stock market collapse. Unfortunately , based on the government bailing out everything, that’s exactly where this is headed. 
 

A2

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9 minutes ago, A2. said:

Limit down, again. :tw_dissapointed:

Sadly, It will be trillions more before this is all over. Enjoy the dollar “pop” before the dollar “drop “. No easy way out. 
 One thing to note, people don’t know pain, until they experience a currency crash. This is many times worse than a stock market collapse. Unfortunately , based on the government bailing out everything, that’s exactly where this is headed. 
 

A2

I wonder if we would have been better off without doing bailouts in 2008, because it's setting up nasty precedent.

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25 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

I wonder if we would have been better off without doing bailouts in 2008, because it's setting up nasty precedent.

100% yes. Would it have hurt, yes. Would we have been have a better financial foundation today, absolutely.

A2

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4 minutes ago, A2. said:

100% yes. Would it have hurt, yes. Would we have been have a better financial foundation today, absolutely.

A2

But this isn't 2008. Something has to prop up what is rapidly failing. We're on the cusp of a bunch of ugly stuff as personal liquidity dries up, especially for people losing jobs and the implosion of the service economy.

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31 minutes ago, davidclt said:

But this isn't 2008. Something has to prop up what is rapidly failing. We're on the cusp of a bunch of ugly stuff as personal liquidity dries up, especially for people losing jobs and the implosion of the service economy.

No doubt. I am just telling you that had we “cleansed” the system before, we’d be in a better position. 
 Even then, the situation today is a lose-lose. We bail out those who desperately need it and sacrifice the dollar, or we don’t and let the pain ensue. The reality is we are heading into a Depression regardless. 
 The real question is how does the depression manifest itself. Based on all historical empires prior, the best bet is a deflationary bust (what we are witnessing now), followed by hyperinflation. Each has its own set of issues. Bottom line: this will change the future of our Nation and the world. The financial system is broken. We will probably end up in a war, and more than likely a new system of global governance and monetary rule. 

One last item to note:  government, corporate, and personal responsibility should be seriously scrutinized. We as a people have decided that a debt based system is wealth. It’s not. I’ve always had a disdain for Keynesian economics. Had we stuck to a gold standard, refused to have a centralized private bank mark the price of money, and taken to living within our means, none of this would be an issue. Now it’s too late. Perhaps when this passes, we will all come back to our senses and realize that an empire built on debt, is a fragile one that is one crisis away from destruction. 

A2

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46 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

China down 5%. Japan +.10% currently. Central government measures in Japan and South Korea caused a reduced COVID19 daily case rate. I think in these times of termoil, those markets might be relatively safe for investment.

Nah, think globally. Markets are interconnected. While most markets will bounce when we get some announcement of a treatment, vaccine, or even a stimulus package approval, it will be the bounce to sell. The global markets will then proceed to continue their downward trajectory after any said bounce. Stay liquid and lighten up risk at any opportunity. This market is far from THE bottom, and this includes international markets. Look at this chart again as a reference point (See below). Even the 29’ crash had epic rallies only to be sold to lower levels, and didn’t bottom for a couple of years AFTER the initial crash. The jig is truly up. Money printing and the boogeymen going away (aka CV) , won’t be able to stop the inevitability of the gravity of this collapse.

 

FF617DAD-4526-4C7A-B655-F31BDF52DA25.jpeg
 

Sorry for the black boxes, but notice the epic rallies in the last great Bear of 29’. Those rallies were massive and were “Bull Traps”. We are certain to get a few this time to, just don’t get tricked into thinking it’s all good. It’s not, it’s just a bounce to be sold.

53FB1A57-5010-46EF-9A08-EDB6529A3622.jpeg

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If history is any guide we bottom somewhere between 10,800 on the DOW (that is an optimistic target), to possibly as low as 5600. Sounds nuts doesn’t it? And many will me call out as some kind of whack job, but that’s cool. I’m just speaking what the charts are saying. Lastly, the Great Depression had unemployment between 25%-30% (from all the data I could find). This go around, could be equal in numbers with the shutdowns and businesses that will fail. 
 

A2

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2 minutes ago, A2. said:

If history is any guide we bottom somewhere between 10k on the DOW (that is an optimistic target), to possibly as low as 5600. Sounds nuts doesn’t it? And many will me call out as some kind of whack job, but that’s cool. I’m just speaking what the charts are saying. Lastly, the Great Depression had unemployment between 25%-30% (from all the data I could find). This go around, could be equal in numbers with the shutdowns and businesses that will fail. 
 

A2

How long do you think a depression would last?

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8 minutes ago, cltheel.sdl said:

How long do you think a depression would last?

Years. I wish I had some better news. I will caveat that and suggest that IF we have an economic reset that is global, then the above answer is thrown into the trash can. BUT, that would mean we would be intertwined into a New World Order of sorts. Which, to be honest, is quite possible. The US isn’t the only country in debt, we just have the unique advantage of being the world reserve currency. That would cease to exist in a NWO, and currency. Again, to suggest that a new global monetary system is in the cards, isn’t a pipe dream. It’s a real possibility, and I know for a fact that the global elites would welcome it. The tough part is, after this financial crises intensifies, many in this country will welcome it. 

 I’m going to say something that I probably shouldn’t, but will:

I personally believe that the above scenario is what is wanted by the Global Banking elites and that the crises we are in is not coincidental. I believe it’s what’s coming and to that end, I don’t have a clue as to how to invest to that narrative. All I can say is that nothing just happens, it’s all orchestrated. And just remember it’s not a conspiracy theory if it’s true. :ph34r:

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Some interesting stuff:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bofa-calls-war-time-measures-urges-near-total-fed-takeover-capital-markets
 

Another geeky, yet powerful read, on the current quagmire that the central banks are facing. Read it slow, as it sheds a ton of light of the really tough situation we’re in:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/payments-panic-endgame-fiat-currencies

A2

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On 3/20/2020 at 9:42 PM, A2. said:

What DH17 said. in normal times it is an indicator of trouble. This eclipses that by light years. Too be honest, technical analysis is quite helpful in identifying  certain support and resistance levels. But, this is such an unprecedented move down that we are in uncharted waters. It’s the most severe downward crash in terms of speed and percentage drop EVER (including the Great Depression). Let that sink in......

I am currently watching several levels for a monster rally. I’m hoping that they hold. But I don’t want to give false hope. Personally I  thought the market was going to bounce today. One positive (albeit a small positive) is  that we did hold the intraday lows on Wednesday. Don’t read too much into it, but it’s at least a small positive.
 

Again, I’m not a perma Bear or even a Gold Bug (as I am sometimes jokingly called).

I truly wish the best for this country and all on this board. I pray that somehow this pain will be mitigated, but I am just trying to be as real and transparent  as I can to my virtual buddies on UP. 

 I am ultimately Bullish on America! And I’m Bullish on the People of this Great country. Sure we have massive differences, but generally speaking, we are a hard working people, that care about the well being of our neighbor. Let’s all hope that this blows over, but just be prepared just in case it doesn’t. 

Godspeed! 

A2

Just in: Fed announces unlimited QE and sets up several new lending facilities. Looks like inflation will be skyrocketing soon.

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1 minute ago, urbanlover568 said:

Just in: Fed announces unlimited QE and sets up several new lending facilities. Looks like inflation will be skyrocketing soon.

Yep. Here they come: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/fed-announces-a-slew-of-new-programs-to-help-markets-including-open-ended-asset-purchases.html

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