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On 3/14/2020 at 9:55 PM, downtownresident said:

He’s bought the land vs. convincing the city to trade land with him. This one is also very well positioned for Amazon, Asurion, and Nashville Yards. 

I wonder why he didn’t the metro public tower design for this lot... I’m afraid this building is going to get lost in Nashville yards and won’t be noticed unless right next to it, while the other design is taller and would stand out more. 

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2 hours ago, Neigeville2 said:

Another swimming pool of death!  And this one looks larger and more terrifying than the other.

Also, if you look closer, it looks like there is an overhang. I wonder if part, or if not all of the bottom of the pool is glass? I don’t think the Westin POD does that. 

Edited by TNinVB
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11 hours ago, LA_TN said:

These pools on top of these towers (Viridian, Holston, etc) need to ensure that the water does not pour out onto the street below during an earthquake

I'm not sure how much work has been performed in the field of critical failure modes for infinity pools but even if the entire side gave way the water wouldn't reach ground level in a single mass. It would spread out enough to where the effect would be like a very heavy rain.

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23 hours ago, LA_TN said:

These pools on top of these towers (Viridian, Holston, etc) need to ensure that the water does not pour out onto the street below during an earthquake

Sorry, but your comment is not really much to worry about.  I have studed seismics for decades and water from these pools is the LEAST of worries.  Ok, here's the deal.  Building codes have NEVER adequately covered seismic performance in our area because the expected sesmic occurance in Nashville was extremely underrated.  Don't wory about swimming pool water, worry about big chunks of buildings and flooding from failed TVA dams.  I have personally spoken with both FEMA and TEMA officials about this and they confidentially agreed their preparations were way too little.     One of these guys was the head of TEMA, so I wasn't just talking to an underling.  I have also confered with Dr. Richard G. Sterns at Vanderbilt, one of the three leadig seismologists in the world.  Let me explain what the seismics situation  in our neck of the woods entails.   The traditional emphasis has always been Memphis...the New Madrid threat.  Tons of studies and internet data on it, right?  Well there is much more to it than the New Madrid.  The 1811 and 1812 famous quakes were on the sothern end of the fault known as the Reelfoot Rift which generally follows the rivers up the Ohio , joining with the Wabash Valley seismic zone and going north toward Chicago.   The concern of many contemporary  seismologists is that the New Madrid Fault may be becoming less active, while activity on the Wabash Fault could be increasing.   The focus of  attention has been on the New Madrid Fault, but the Wabash Valley Fault could be the more dangerous one as the strongest earthquakes in the last few years have come from the Wabash Valley Fault, which needs more investigation.   Nashville would be much more impacted  from a major quake on this fault system than  than over at New Madrid.  Why?  The periodicy of major quakes  on the central North American rifts is generally 500 to 800 years, well before the continent was settled by Europeans; therefore we have no verbal record of quakes before that.  If there were any real verbal tales among the native Americans to investigate, it is pretty impossible becouse we had a 90% genicide rate when the Europeans took over the New World.  The New Madrid quakes were a little more than two hundred years ago, so it is doubtful that quakes  there , which are still possible, will not be expected to be as severe in magnitude.   However the Northern Reelfoot Rift and the Wabash Valley Fault are well over 1000 years overdue for a major event.  Californians always talk about the "Big One", which in fact could happen at any time.  However, unlike the fictitious events in "2012", the area affected by such an event is geographically small.  This is because the geological fracturing there damps out pretty quickly.  The underlaying geological features of the Eastern US is completely different as we are not at the edge of a subducting tectonic plate, but rather on a  vast sedimentary bedrock foundation which tramsmits rather than damps the energy.  When the New Madrid events occurred, Nashville was only a few years old and structures were log, which were architecturally very resistant to earthquake forces.  Stone chimneys were not and most collapsed.  From written records,  Nashville settlers were thrown to the ground and could not stand for as long as ten minutes.   This equates to a very severe quake locally, which should it occur now, would be much worse than that of san Francisco in 1906.  A major quake of the scale of New Madrid centering in the Wabash north of Paducha would be far worse.  Such a quake would  devastate Chicago, St. Louis, Columbus, Memphis, Nashville .  One would expect significant damage in all the east coast cities as well from collapse of older structures with poor or compromised  structural sysems.  This would do more than ring church bells in Boston.  At any rate, Nashville  could easily experience a Mercator  index quake in the 7 to 8 range,   When I purchased my farm , I considered seismics as a factor.... for every 25 miles going south from Nashville, the quake intensity drops by a full order of magnitude, such is the geological situation as it drops to a magnitude of about zero at the Gulf Coast. These intensity lines on seismic graphs are called seismibars, similar to weather maps.  There is a lot more about this, but my remarks should have covered the basics.

Now to damage possibilities.  A quake on the Wabash valley fault would devastate the cities I have alreasy listed.  What more....Every bridge over the Mississippi and Ohio would likely be destroyed from Vicksburg MS to the Appalachians.  This includes massive rupture of pipelines and toppling of electrical grids as well.   Railroads and highways would be destroyed.  In many places, there would not be intact roadway bigger tha a turkey platter or dissapear entirely.  Utterly a blow our nation is not equipped to recover quickly.   In Nashville, the some of effects for instance, include the collapse of the old reservoir worse than it did in 1928.  Building structural systems of concrete would be likely to pancake and TPAC would have tower floors falling into the base structure.   We could expeience massive flooding downtown far more extensive than 2010.  This would be very sudden as while the big concrete gravity dams on the Cumberland and Stones rivers would survive, the earthen wings would be massively breached resulting in a 50% or more release of the impondments asthe massive surges from upstream overwhelm those downsteam in addition to defects in the earthen barriers themselves.  When these dams were built, they were for flood control and government seismic studies for them were not calculated for the levels at which TVA now maintains for recreational purposes.  The Tennesse River dams would have similar failures, especially Wilson Dam. Fortuately, the kind of steel framed buildings like Amagon should perform well.  Broadwest probably would not.  At any rate, such damage will take decades for nashville to recover.

When will this occur?  Tomorrow or 100 years from now.   The probabilty percentage increases  day by day, but the prediction science is still a crapshoot.  I think the Covid-19 response by government shows us how utterly unprepared we are for a major seismic event here in the central US.  As to the preparedness of FEMA and TEMA, I give you this example of their thinking.  20 years ago I was at an architectural conference  and I buttonholed the head of TEMA.  Upon my asking about earthquake preparedness, he was so proud of the his new mobile disaster unit that would serve as command reponse centers.  I asked where they located, which was at the National Guard center at Radnor.    Upon further inquiry, I found that they were garaged in buildings that would be very vulnerable to collapse in a major seismic event.  So much for TEMA's preparedness.   So as you can see, I would not be too concerned about water from swimming pools atop tall buildings.   I have not played the boy who cried wolf on this because there is little that I can personally do to change the situation.  When it occurs, we will be in the sh*tter.  If the government doesn't see fit to react to prudent scientific evidence and warning, all I can do is move to an area where the effects are lessened, which I have.  There is far, far more to worry about.

Edited by Baronakim
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WOW guys! About all I can add would be to recommend to everyone to visit the Discovery Center in Dyersburg to learn more in depth about our area and earthquakes. And watch underneath the Smoky Mountains!

Back to the subject, this is what I was referring to:

 

 

 

Edited by LA_TN
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9 hours ago, Baronakim said:

Sorry, but your comment is not really much to worry about.  I have studed seismics for decades and water from these pools is the LEAST of worries.  Ok, here's the deal.  Building codes have NEVER adequately covered seismic performance in our area because the expected sesmic occurance in Nashville was extremely underrated.  Don't wory about swimming pool water, worry about big chunks of buildings and flooding from failed TVA dams.  I have personally spoken with both FEMA and TEMA officials about this and they confidentially agreed their preparations were way too little.     One of these guys was the head of TEMA, so I wasn't just talking to an underling.  I have also confered with Dr. Richard G. Sterns at Vanderbilt. one of the three leadig seismologists in the world.  Let me explain what the seismics in our neck of the woods.   The traditional emphasis has always been Memphis...the New Madrid threat.  Tons of studies and internet data on it, right?  Well there is much more to it than the New Madrid.  The 1811 and 1812 famous quakes were on the sothern end of the fault known as the Reelfoot Rift which generally follows the rivers up the Ohio , joining with the Wabash Valley seismic zone and going north toward Chicago.   The concern of many contemporary  seismologists is that the New Madrid Fault may be becoming less active, while activity on the Wabash Fault could be increasing.   The focus of  attention has been on the New Madrid Fault, but the Wabash Valley Fault could be the more dangerous one as the strongest earthquakes in the last few years have come from the Wabash Valley Fault, which needs more investigation.  nashville would be much more impacted  from a major quake on this fault system than  than over at New madrid.  Why?  The periodicy of major quakes  on the central North American rifts is generally 500 to 800 years, well before the continent was settled by Europeans; therefore we have no verbal record of quakes before that.  If there were any real verbal tales among the native Americans to investigate, it is pretty impossible becouse we had a 90% genicide rate when the Europeans took over the New World.  The New Madrid quakes were a little more than two hundred years ago, so it is doubtful that quakes  there , which are still possible, will not be expected to be as severe in magnitude.   However the Northern Reelfoot Rift and the Wabash Valley Fault are well over 1000 years overdue for a major event.  Californians always talk about the "Big One", which in fact could happen at any time.  However, unlike the fictitious events in "2012", the area affected by such an event is geographically small.  This is because the geoliogical fracturing there damps out pretty quickly.  The underlaying geological features of the Eastern US is completely different as we are not at the edge of a subducting tectonic plate, but rather on a  vast sedimentary bedrock foundation which tramsmits rather than damps the energy.  When the New Madrid events occurred, Nashville was only a few years old and structures were log, which were architecturally very resistant to earthquake forces.  Stone chimneys were not and moste collapsed.  From written records,  Nashville settlers were thrown to the ground and could not stand for as long as ten minutes.   This equates to a very severe quake locally, which should it occur now, would be much worse than that of san Francisco in 1906.  A major quake of the scale of New Madrid centering in the Wabash north of Paducha would be far worse.  Such a quake would  devastate Chicago, St. Louis, Columbus, Memphis, Nashville .  One would expect significant damage in all the east coast cities as well from collapse of older structures with poor or compromised  structural sysems.  This would do more than ring church bells in Boston.  At any rate, Nashville  could easily experience a Mercator  index quake in the 7 to 8 range,   When I purchased my farm , I considered seismics as a factor.... for every 25 miles going south from Nashville, the quake intensity drops by a full order of magnitude, such is the geological situation as it drops to a magnitude of about zero at the Gulf Coast. These intensity lines on seismic graphs are called seismibars, similar to weather maps.  There is a lot more about this, but my remarks should have covered the basics.

Now to damage possibilities.  A quake on the Wabash valley fault would devastate the cities I have alreasy listed.  What more....Every bridge over the Mississippi and Ohio would likely be destroyed from Vicksburg MS to the Appalachians.  This includes massive rupture of pipelines and toppling of electrical grids as well.   Railroads and highways would be destroyed.  In many places, there would not be intact roadway bigger tha a turkey platter or dissapear entirely.  Utterly a blow our nation is not equipped to recover quickly.   In Nashville, the some of effects for instance, include the collapse of the old reservoir worse than it did in 1928.  Building structural systems of concrete would be likely to pancake and TPAC would have tower floors falling into the base structure.   We could expeience massive flooding downtown far more extensive than 2010.  This would be very sudden as while the big concrete gravity dams on the Cumberland and Stones rivers would survive, the earthen wings would be massively breached resulting in a 50% or more release of the impondments asthe massive surges from upstream overwhelm those downsteam in addition to defects in the earthen barriers themselves.  When these dams were built, they were for flood control and government seismic studies for them were not calculated for the levels at which TVA now maintains for recreational purposes.  The Tennesse River dams would have similar failures, especially Wilson Dam. Fortuately, the kind of steel framed buildings like Amagon should perform well.  Broadwest probably would not.  At any rate, such damage will take decades for nashville to recover.

When will this occur?  Tomorrow or 100 years from now.   The probabilty percentage increases  day by day, but the prediction science is still a crapshoot.  I think the Covid-19 response by government shows us how utterly unprepared we are for a major seismic event here in the central US.  As to the preparedness of FEMA and TEMA, I give you this example of their thinking.  20 years ago I was at an architectural conference  and I buttonholed the head of TEMA.  Upon my asking about earthquake preparedness, he was so proud of the his new mobile disaster unit that would serve as command reponse centers.  I asked where they located, which was at the National Guard center at Radnor.    Upon further inquiry, I found that they were garaged in buildings that would be very vulnerable to collapse in a major seismic event.  So much for TEMA's preparedness.   So as you can see, I would not be too concerned about water from swimming pools atop tall buildings.   I have not played the boy who cried wolf on this because there is little that I can personally do to change the situation.  When it occurs, we will be in the sh*tter.  If the government doesn't see fit to react to prudent scientific evidence and warning, all I can do is move to an area where the effects are lessened, which I have.  There is far, far more to worry about.

I will never ever enter another skyscraper again! All those people living in a tower... my heart goes out to you all.  Now I'm looking for a one story rancher out in um, Soddy Daisy... that's about the flattest land around here. 

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  • 4 weeks later...
1 hour ago, MLBrumby said:

Am I the only one here who's skeptical that this one will ever get built? Don't get me wrong, I'd love to watch how a building that large gets built on a lot that narrow. 

 

I agree with your assessment. The development company built The Cumberland, Viridian, SoBro, and 505 so there's no way they can develop another building.

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I'm skeptical for several reasons:

1. While I tend to be an optimist when it comes to the economy, the fallout from the Coronavirus shutdown is going to be deeper than most expect right now. The economy is heading for a very  rough patch which IMHO believe will be exacerbated by the CARES Act. I think it will spark a period of high inflation which historically has brought construction to a halt.  Furthermore, if an infrastructure bill is passed during this period, it could prolong a slowdown in non-government funded construction. 

2. I have not seen anywhere how this building is being financed. A November 2019 NBJ article said that information was not disclosed.

3. Those buildings you list were built in a boom economy. Giarratana has a lot of debt. That's not a problem when an economy is going 'great guns'. 

I hope I'm wrong, but at least my reasoning is deeper than simply saying 'they've done it before'. With each step along the way towards getting a crane up... getting the first several floors underway... and seeing this thing go all the way up to its announced 34-stories I'll still be surprised, if proved wrong. As the blind man says, "We'll see!"

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