Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

[markhollin]

Business operations that are allowed to stay open during Metro's "Safer At Home" order:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2020/03/22/what-nashville-business-operations-allowed-under-metro-safer-home-order/2894971001/

[Mr_Bond]

5 hours ago, markhollin said:

Business operations that are allowed to stay open during Metro's "Safer At Home" order:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2020/03/22/what-nashville-business-operations-allowed-under-metro-safer-home-order/2894971001/

I find it humorous that our anti-growth mayor says that construction and development businesses are essential.

[DDIG]

12 minutes ago, Mr_Bond said:

I find it humorous that our anti-growth mayor says that construction and development businesses are essential.

I'm guessing the tornado helped those conditions to keep repairs going and housing inventory moving forward.

[Nash_12South]

1 hour ago, Mr_Bond said:

I find it humorous that our anti-growth mayor says that construction and development businesses are essential.

It's common in some the currently less hard hit states for construction to still be going. I've heard some of the reasoning is that it allows medical related construction to keep going. Shut down construction, you can't build even temporary hospitals.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Nash_12South

[BnaBreaker]

Still no shelter in place order in Tennessee despite there being 615 cases in the state as of today?  I'm really concerned that the state government is not taking this seriously enough.  

[Nash_12South]

14 hours ago, BnaBreaker said:

Still no shelter in place order in Tennessee despite there being 615 cases in the state as of today?  I'm really concerned that the state government is not taking this seriously enough.  

You may be 100% correct, but if you look at the state Coronavirus counts in each county, for the bulk of our counties, it’s less than 10 cases per county. The debate is whether we shut down the entire state, and all those jobs, right now. Reading the Davidson county report,  we have exactly 4 (as of 3/24)  Coronavirus cases in hospitals.
I’m not for relaxing the current rules for our county, but it does open the debate for extending it everywhere. 

Edited March 24, 2020 by Nash_12South

[grilled_cheese]

Except you're going to have some dumbs who screw it all up for the rest of us.  KINDA LIKE THIS https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/local/wilson/2020/03/24/mt-juliet-pastor-greg-locke-holds-sunday-service-global-vision-bible-despite-coronavirus-warnings/2900539001/

[Jamie Hall]

Nashville really could go one of two ways when this ordeal is over and social-distancing rules are lifted.

On one hand, a lot of people currently out of work will still be struggling and trying to catch up on bills. On the other, a lot of us who are fortunate to still have jobs will be eager to get out and spend money again at bars, restaurants, malls, etc., hopefully helping to restart the service industry.

At least Nashville, unlike a lot of cities, is in a great position to benefit from the latter example.

[BnaBreaker]

5 hours ago, Nash_12South said:

You may be 100% correct, but if you look at the state Coronavirus counts in each county, for the bulk of our counties, it’s less than 10 cases per county. The debate is whether we shut down the entire state, and all those jobs, right now. Reading the Davidson county report,  we have exactly 4 (as of 3/24)  Coronavirus cases in hospitals.
I’m not for relaxing the current rules for our county, but it does open the debate for extending it everywhere. 

That's a fair argument for sure, and I think we've all been struggling to kind of find the sensible middle ground on this (okay I know hoarding three years worth of toilet paper is absurd, but should I pick up a couple of these eight packs just encase?) but I guess the counter argument there is that the reason you do this now instead of later is to hopefully prevent it from ever getting out of hand in the first place.  

[DDIG]

5 hours ago, Nash_12South said:

You may be 100% correct, but if you look at the state Coronavirus counts in each county, for the bulk of our counties, it’s less than 10 cases per county. The debate is whether we shut down the entire state, and all those jobs, right now. Reading the Davidson county report,  we have exactly 4 (as of 3/24)  Coronavirus cases in hospitals.
I’m not for relaxing the current rules for our county, but it does open the debate for extending it everywhere. 

Right. At the end of the day it is important to track cases but the number of cases is kind of meaningless until we can quickly diagnose and quarantine people. What matters is hospitalizations and deaths. As of right now we have a negligible amount, that could certainly change, but the dam has not broke yet.

[OnePointEast]

Is it possible we stay as a shelter in place society for at least 6 additional months? That's depressing to hear.

[Mr_Bond]

Yesterday I sent a letter to clients touching various aspects of this situation.  Relevant to the recent comments on this thread, I'll share the paragraph about the 'Recovered.'

"If you’ve been looking at some coronavirus charts, you’ll see data like number infected, number of daily new cases, number of deaths, and something called ‘recovered.’  This last data point is the one that leads us back to normalcy.  Currently, most of us are thinking in terms of two groups of people: those who are infected and those who do not want to become infected.  We must also focus on a third group of people: those who have recovered.  When a vaccine is developed, we can expand the ‘recovered’ group to include those who have been vaccinated.  Each person who has recovered and is not infectious can go about his or her normal life in the midst of a pandemic.  They can teach children, treat patients, clean teeth, serve food, solve crimes, and move about the public.  If these people are identified, the public will have confidence that these people are safe to interact with us.  Once we are approaching herd immunity, we will no longer need to identify the people who have recovered or been vaccinated."

Additional note: The path to normalcy may involve government allowing/encouraging specific groups of people to get out and act normal, knowing that those people may get infected.  If testing is ramped up and results are available in minutes or hours, we can monitor the spread of the virus in each group that is 'released.'  These people get infected, recover and are permanently normal.  If we combine this strategy with antiviral drugs that lessen the effect then this will work.  We increase herd immunity at a measured pace without overwhelming the health care system.  Once a vaccine is ready, we give it to everyone ASAP and we have herd immunity.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Mr_Bond

[Nash_12South]

40 minutes ago, OnePointEast said:

Is it possible we stay as a shelter in place society for at least 6 additional months? That's depressing to hear.

I don't think it is possible for the US to do that. Medically it may make sense, economically we can't sustain it. Too many people would be out of work and out of money, no matter government help. Americans didn't like to be told what to do before this happened. Red states are dragging their feet on closing down and will push to reopen asap. There are questions we are just beginning to think about. What about your next haircut? Your wife's beauty shop appointment? Want to plant a garden?  How long can you really work from home with your spouse and kids without bloodshed?  No play dates for kids, no meeting up with your friends - for 6 more months? Now this may get really bad in the next week, and we are left with no choice, but I don't see this lasting beyond 6-8 weeks max., before things start opening up.  Not the New York's perhaps, but in other parts of the country.....

Here is an interesting article with the premise that it's already too late for the shelter in place plans. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/03/24/coronavirus-shutdowns-worth-public-health-system-unprepared-column/2898324001/

 

Edited March 24, 2020 by Nash_12South

[DDIG]

31 minutes ago, Mr_Bond said:

Yesterday I sent a letter to clients touching various aspects of this situation.  Relevant to the recent comments on this thread, I'll share the paragraph about the 'Recovered.'

"If you’ve been looking at some coronavirus charts, you’ll see data like number infected, number of daily new cases, number of deaths, and something called ‘recovered.’  This last data point is the one that leads us back to normalcy.  Currently, most of us are thinking in terms of two groups of people: those who are infected and those who do not want to become infected.  We must also focus on a third group of people: those who have recovered.  When a vaccine is developed, we can expand the ‘recovered’ group to include those who have been vaccinated.  Each person who has recovered and is not infectious can go about his or her normal life in the midst of a pandemic.  They can teach children, treat patients, clean teeth, serve food, solve crimes, and move about the public.  If these people are identified, the public will have confidence that these people are safe to interact with us.  Once we are approaching herd immunity, we will no longer need to identify the people who have recovered or been vaccinated."

Additional note: The path to normalcy may involve government allowing/encouraging specific groups of people to get out and act normal, knowing that those people may get infected.  If testing is ramped up and results are available in minutes or hours, we can monitor the spread of the virus in each group that is 'released.'  These people get infected, recover and are permanently normal.  If we combine this strategy with antiviral drugs that lessen the effect then this will work.  We increase herd immunity at a measured pace without overwhelming the health care system.  Once a vaccine is ready, we give it to everyone ASAP and we have herd immunity.

Good message. Herd immunity is important to normalcy.

[MLBrumby]

Good point. COVID 19 mortality in the USA is also dropping, albeit gradually. At 1.2%, it's still a vast improvement over other countries. Worldwide, it's at around 4.3%, reflective of the earlier slow responses in China and elsewhere. That number should continue to drop as providers move more quickly with some promising treatments. As with other epidemics, the most vulnerable die first. Early in the pandemic, many of those people were not protected from infection (like in Washington state).  Protective measures and isolation are being done everywhere now. So the mortality may even go below 1%, but @Mr_Bondis correct that a simple mortality rate across a whole population is not very useful, and may in fact cause undue panic. It is also believed by the CDC that many people recovered from the disease but were never tested; so they were never recorded as a 'recovered' patient. So far South Korea is the best large scale sampling of mortality and best model for testing, and now 'releasing' groups back into society. Their mortality rate has been reported at around .7%. However, they were even late in responding. They had kept their flights to/from China open as recently as February.

So how will this end? No one knows, but lots of people are offering possibilities. Sounds like Mr. Bond's company is being sensible with their next steps. As noted above, mortality varies across groups according to vulnerability. So when the mass self-quarantine and ordered shutdowns end (I've heard from several public health experts it will be 2X incubation time; so 4 weeks), they're considering a gradual releasing of groups, starting with least vulnerable. One sad example is my elderly aunt who lives in a retirement community. She expects that she will probably be confined to her building until June at the very soonest. BTW: We take her groceries every 5 days. The staff wipe down every single container we leave in the lobby and they throw away the bags.

BTW: The herd immunity is a good example of what can happen with the 'curve flattening'... giving those people who can develop immunity more time to do so. And I've heard (once again I'm no medical scientist) from several sources, including Lancet that the heat of summer weather will go a long way to killing the virus as it exists right now. 

Edited March 24, 2020 by MLBrumby

[OnePointEast]

28 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

I don't think it is possible for the US to do that. Medically it may make sense, economically we can't sustain it. Too many people would be out of work and out of money, no matter government help. Americans didn't like to be told what to do before this happened. Red states are dragging their feet on closing down and will push to reopen asap. There are questions we are just beginning to think about. What about your next haircut? Your wife's beauty shop appointment? Want to plant a garden?  How long can you really work from home with your spouse and kids without bloodshed?  No play dates for kids, no meeting up with your friends - for 6 more months? Now this may get really bad in the next week, and we are left with no choice, but I don't see this lasting beyond 6-8 weeks max., before things start opening up.  Not the New York's perhaps, but in other parts of the country.....

Here is an interesting article with the premise that it's already too late for the shelter in place plans. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/03/24/coronavirus-shutdowns-worth-public-health-system-unprepared-column/2898324001/

 

Thanks. All of this has given me some debilitating anxiety and it's worse now when one of my symptoms of aniexty is shortness of breath or shallow breath. It leads me to think of symptoms of Covid-19. Though, I haven't had a cough or a fever, and since I remember aniexty gives me shortness of breath episodes, it just leads me to think of a worst-case scenario. It's all a cascade of emotions and thoughts.

Edited March 24, 2020 by OnePointEast

[MLBrumby]

I think better weather will help... here in Chattanooga it's been so gloomy, day in and day out. I think the last time we saw sun was Friday... then Tuesday before that. We can't even get out and go for a jog around the neighborhood. 

[Mr_Bond]

2 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

And I've heard (once again I'm no medical scientist) from several sources, including Lancet that the heat of summer weather will go a long way to killing the virus as it exists right now. 

Also from my letter to clients:

"You may have heard some talk of how warmer weather would affect the spread of the virus.  Last week, a team of researchers unveiled the results of a new study that looked at how temperature and humidity may affect the transmission of COVID-19.  According to the researchers' findings, “High temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19.” An increase of just one degree Celsius and 1% relative humidity increase substantially lower the virus’s transmission, according to the data analyzed by the researchers.  The researchers studied 100 different Chinese cities that each had more than 40 cases of COVID-19 from Jan. 21 to 23. The decision to study transmission on those dates was critical because that time period was before China intervened on Jan. 24 to stop the spread of the virus.  Analyzing that timeframe allowed researchers to observe the natural spread of the virus before public health measures, which have since helped reduce the spread drastically in China, were implemented.  If this study’s conclusions are valid, the coming of spring and summer could help us flatten the curve until cooler weather arrives in the fall."

[TNinVB]

10 hours ago, OnePointEast said:

Thanks. All of this has given me some debilitating anxiety and it's worse now when one of my symptoms of aniexty is shortness of breath or shallow breath. It leads me to think of symptoms of Covid-19. Though, I haven't had a cough or a fever, and since I remember aniexty gives me shortness of breath episodes, it just leads me to think of a worst-case scenario. It's all a cascade of emotions and thoughts.

I know exactly how you feel. My shortness of breath and breathing issues are due to me having a vocal cord disfunction, which in turn has caused me anxiety. Like you, lately if I get a shortness of breath, its very easy to let my anxiety get the best of me. I never even experienced anxiety before all of this. It started last August when I was at home one day an could not clear my throat of phlegm and thought I was choking. I want to the ER because I was so freaked out. To make a long story short, I went to the ER 5 times from August to November. I'd have issues with by breathing being labored, problems swallowing, and choking feeling. The entire experience caused me terrible anxiety attacks. It's a pretty scary feeling thinking that you are going to choke to death, or can't breath. Of course every time I went the ER they would check to see if it was my heart which it wasn't. The doctors were stumped. Even my doctor increased my allergy medicine thinking it could be allergy related, and prescribed me medicine for acid reflux because apparently it can cause some nasty stuff. Had a skin allergy test and was only found to be allergic to dust mites and dog hair. I have had dogs forever and the allergist didn't feel it was that considering my symptoms just started. She even had me do a pulmonary test to see if I had developed asthma. I had not. I had an endoscopy where they dilated my esophagus thinking it might help with the choking sensation. I didn't. I would even have a feeling like something was stuck in my thought. FINALLY in January when I went back to see the allergist for a followup, she didn't feel my issues were allergy related, but that I could possibly have a vocal cord disfunction, and should see a speech pathologist. Me being ignorant about VCD, I was like "I can speak just fine". So, I went to see a speech pathologist and she placed a camera up my nose and went down my throat so we could see my vocal cords. She had me do a few voice and breathing exercises to see my vocal cords function. Low and behold I a had a VCD. Basically when your vocal cords are supposed to be open, mine were closing slightly. She gave me literature about VCD, and amazingly all of the issues I'd been having were symptoms of It. You can look up videos on YouTube to get a better understanding of what I’m talking about. The video of the old man with Strider scared the crap out of me. That's a very severe VCD. There is no cure for  VCD and apparently is quite common in athletes, which I am not lol. Basically, I have to retrain my vocal cords. I do rescue breaths when I feel an episode coming on, and they help immensely. I'm not sure if you know what they are, but is not you should look them up. I will inhale two quick breaths through my nose as if you are sniffing flowers, and then go right to my exhale for four seconds. The key is laying down flat and not pausing between the inhales and exhale. It's like a continuous circular motion. When exhaling, your lips should be pursed as if you are sucking on a straw and the exhale should come from your abdomen/diaphram. These rescue breathing exercises have helped a lot. No more ER trips and anxiety attacks. I think having all the knowledge of knowing what is wrong with me made the anxiety attacks subside. The one silver lining for me, is that I lost over 20 lbs due to not eating a lot for the fear of choking. I lived off of soup and mushy foods.  Now, with COVID-19 being around, I have started to get very anxious. Every time I feel like I'm getting shortness of breath I start to wonder if it's a symptom. Therefore I can start to get that tingling feeling all over by body like I'm about to have an attack. I know it's a vicious cycle. If you weren't already aware of rescue breathing, I hope you can look into it and give it a try. I hope things get better for you. Hang in there....

Edited March 25, 2020 by TNinVB

[Sean blackdog]

Update few min ago. Rises to 773 right now. 
Nashville 253. 
Memphis 135 

[smeagolsfree]

The Davidson County numbers are wrong as they are at 253 according a press release earlier in the day. It makes me feel as if the state is well behind the curve. At this point I can't say Lee's leadership has been great. He seems a bit overwhelmed by it all and out of his element.

He is really not listening to the concerns of thoses that understand the crisis. He has ignored the calls of mayors and doctors across the state.

 

https://lnks.gd/l/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJidWxsZXRpbl9saW5rX2lkIjoxMDAsInVyaSI6ImJwMjpjbGljayIsImJ1bGxldGluX2lkIjoiMjAyMDAzMjQuMTkyMjgyODEiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwOi8vd3d3Lm5hc2h2aWxsZS5nb3YvTmV3cy1NZWRpYS9OZXdzLUFydGljbGUvSUQvOTU0OC9EYWlseS1NZXRyby1Db3ZpZDE5LVByZXNzLVVwZGF0ZS1mb3ItTWFyY2gtMjQuYXNweCJ9.CSu9MPzTEfFsqfB0PssnIlPxhd4aOBQiSAG630ETiLk/br/76550439893-l

[OnePointEast]

1 hour ago, TNinVB said:

I know exactly how you feel. My shortness of breath and breathing issues is due to me having a vocal cord disfunction, which in turn has caused me anxiety. Like you, lately if I get a shortness of breath, its very easy to let my anxiety get the best of me. I never even experienced anxiety before all of this. It started last August when I was at home one day an could not cleat my throat of phlegm and thought I was choking. I want to the ER because I was so freaked out. To make a long story short, I went to the ER 5 times from August to November. I'd have issues with by breathing being labored, problems swallowing, and choking feeling. The entire experience caused me terrible anxiety attacks. It's a pretty scary feeling thinking that you are going to choke to death or can't breath. Of course every time I went the ER they would check to see if it was my heart which it wasn't. The doctors were stumped. Even my doctor increased my allergy medicine thinking it could be allergy related, and prescribed me medicine for acid reflux because apparently it can cause some nasty stuff. Had a skin allergy test and was only found to be allergic to dust mites and dog hair. I have had dogs forever and the allergist didn't feel it was that considering my symptoms just started. She even had me so a pulmonary test to see if I had developed asthma. I had not. I had an endoscopy where they dilated my esophagus thinking it might help with the choking sensation. I didn't. I would even feel like something would be stuck in my thought. FINALLY in January when I went back to see the allergist for a followup, she didn't feel my issues were allergy related, but that I could possibly have a vocal cord disfunction and should see a speech pathologist. Me being ignorant about VCD, I was like "I can speak just fine". So, I went to see a speech pathologist. She placed a camera up my nose and went down my throat so we could see my vocal cords. She had me do a few voice and breathing exercises to see my vocal cords function. Low and behold I a had a VCD. Basically when your vocal cords are supposed to be open, mine will closed. She gave me literature and amazingly all of the issues I'd been having were symptoms of VCD. You can look up videos on YouTube. The video of the old man with Strider scared the crap out of me. That's a very severe VCD. There is no cure for a VCD and apparently is quite common in athletes, which I am not lol. Basically, I have to retrain my vocal cords. I do rescue breaths when I feel an episode coming on, and they help immensely. I'm not sure if you know what they are, but is not you should look them up. I will inhale two quick breaths through my nose as if you are sniffing flowers, and then go right to my exhale for four seconds. The key is all in not pausing between the inhales and exhale. It's like a circular motion. When exhaling, your lips should be pursed as if you are sucking on a straw and the exhale should come from your abdomen/diaphram. These rescue breathing exercises have helped a lot. No more ER trips and anxiety attacks. I think having all the knowledge of knowing what is wrong with me made the anxiety attacks subside. The one silver lining for me, is that I lost over 20 lbs due to not eating a lot for the fear of choking. I lived off of soup and mushy foods.  Now, with COVID-19 being around, I have started to get very anxious. Every time I feel like I'm getting shortness of breath I start to wonder if it's a symptom. Therefore I can start to get that tingling feeling all over by body like I'm about to have an attack. I know it's a vicious cycle. If you weren't already aware of rescue breathing, I hope you can look into it and give it a try. I hope things get better for you. Hang in there....

Thank you. This message has kept me at bay for a good part of the day. It's crazy just how much reassurance helps in situations like this. Thank you, once again.

[Hushpuppy321]

4 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

The Davidson County numbers are wrong as they are at 253 according a press release earlier in the day. It makes me feel as if the state is well behind the curve. At this point I can't say Lee's leadership has been great. He seems a bit overwhelmed by it all and out of his element.

He is really not listening to the concerns of thoses that understand the crisis. He has ignored the calls of mayors and doctors across the state.

 

https://lnks.gd/l/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJidWxsZXRpbl9saW5rX2lkIjoxMDAsInVyaSI6ImJwMjpjbGljayIsImJ1bGxldGluX2lkIjoiMjAyMDAzMjQuMTkyMjgyODEiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwOi8vd3d3Lm5hc2h2aWxsZS5nb3YvTmV3cy1NZWRpYS9OZXdzLUFydGljbGUvSUQvOTU0OC9EYWlseS1NZXRyby1Db3ZpZDE5LVByZXNzLVVwZGF0ZS1mb3ItTWFyY2gtMjQuYXNweCJ9.CSu9MPzTEfFsqfB0PssnIlPxhd4aOBQiSAG630ETiLk/br/76550439893-l

I was wondering why Tennessee’s numbers of infected were higher than North Carolina?  I thought it was because of lack of testing in NC but I think NC Governor Cooper has been a bit more aggressive with his State Mandated shutdown of Schools, Restaurants, Public stuff early on.

[downtownresident]

46 minutes ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

I was wondering why Tennessee’s numbers of infected were higher than North Carolina?  I thought it was because of lack of testing in NC but I think NC Governor Cooper has been a bit more aggressive with his State Mandated shutdown of Schools, Restaurants, Public stuff early on.

TN has tested more people than NC. 
 

NC has tested 8,502 people with 398 positive cases. 
 

Source: https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc

 

TN has tested 11,144, out of which 667 are positive(95 of which are not residents of TN). 
 

Source: https://www.tn.gov/health/cedep/ncov.html

 

Thats a difference of 2,642 tests, which with NC positive rate would be an additional 123 cases, which would equal 521 positives. 
 

Gov. Lee has been absolutely disappointing in this. I can’t believe he hadn’t assembled a dedicated task force until this weekend. There’s a balance to be struck between lockdown and economic activity, and he is leaning too far toward the latter. 
 

Mayor Cooper and Metro Health to their credit has done a decent job leading the response in Metro, and seems to be setting the example for other cities in the state. Unfortunately other neighboring jurisdictions waited until the last minute possible(along with Gov Lee) to start mitigation efforts. 

[TNinVB]

6 hours ago, OnePointEast said:

Thank you. This message has kept me at bay for a good part of the day. It's crazy just how much reassurance helps in situations like this. Thank you, once again.

Of course, by all means! I know how much reassurance can help. Earlier this evening I found myself getting phlegm in my throat that was thicker than usual. I started to have that feeling coming on like my anxiety was going to ramp up. I’m horrible about catastrophic thinking. Well two hours later after taking mucinex,  Benadryl, and drinking some hot tea, the phlegm has cleared up and I feel more at ease. Also I took two melatonin. Not sure how I’m able to type this right now lol. At least I’ll be dozing off soon and my mind will be at rest.