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Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global


Mr_Bond

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1 hour ago, Nash_12South said:

How quickly we get back may be related to how bad it gets. 100,000+ deaths will likely mean we all know people who die. It could get pretty grim. Hard to get too excited. On the other side, a lot of people will want to celebrate the ending of the restrictions and Nashville could really boom...party time! Our conventions will take time to recover. We will likely be on guard for new surges for the next year, until a vaccine is ready. Lots to ponder. A tad stressful....

Unfortunately, my guess is that the number will far surpass that number. I really pray I am wrong, but there are a lot of places that are not even close to even seeing a start to their troubles and it will take a month and a half for a lot of this to peak out.

There are and were a lot of places that just were and still not taking this as serious as they should have. 

I expect I will not be celebrating anything until there is a vaccine. I know of people that are still saying even today that this is just the flu and are angry they can't work or lost their job. 

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What we feel here will also be highly influenced by what progresses beyond our borders.  As the pandemic sweeps across the developing world, burning like an untamed wild fire (if you think WE have problems with not enough ventilators, hospital beds, and protective gear,  just imagine Coronavirus in the slums of Nairobi, or Sao Paulo, or Jakarta, or Manila, or Calcutta, or Mexico  City,  etc. where "social distancing" will be impossible), subsequent new waves of outbreak will be coming.  Even without taking hold in those poorer nations yet, the infection and death rates from Covid 19 have literally quadrupled in the 'first world' over the last 16 days.  We are nowhere near bending  the curve. This is going to get very ugly over the next month or two in the nicer places on the planet.  But when it hits the underprivileged in other parts of the globe....well...my heart just breaks.

And even when a vaccine is finally released sometime in 2021, it will be nearly impossible to get it distributed in a timely manner---let alone equitably---to 7.8 billion people.  The ripple effects are going to be substantial for at least 5 years.  In my work with Compassion International (a child development ministry in the poorest countries of the world), this is the kind of stuff that keeps me up at night. 

There is a phrase developed by some European thinkers back in the late 60s called The Map of the Problematique.  Essentially its meaning is that the world has become so interconnected via technology, commerce, politics, etc. that when problems arise, they cannot be solved within the terms of each category...there are too many knots that cannot be untangled.    

Certainly the developed nations have a better chance of "recovery"...but things will never be quite the same again.  I am a firm believer that "constant change is here to stay."   It will be intriguing to see how Nashvillians in particular, and humanity as a whole, adapt to these new realities and challenges. 

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8 hours ago, OnePointEast said:

Has a vaccine ever been developed at the pace as the vaccine for Covid-19? It seems too fast to be true. Though, I'm hearing that it's due to so many resourceful companies and governments investing in it.

I think the Europeans may have had better luck at getting some meds out of the labs and into the public due to less regulations than the U.S. This will still take some time either way no matter where the vaccine or vaccines are developed, because there could be several.

The other problem is getting enough vaccine produced for the entire population. It is not going to happen quickly. They will inoculate the most vulnerable first such as the elderly and those with underlying health conditions, first responders, and health care workers.

3 hours ago, markhollin said:

What we feel here will also be highly influenced by what progresses beyond our borders.  As the pandemic sweeps across the developing world, burning like an untamed wild fire (if you think WE have problems with not enough ventilators, hospital beds, and protective gear,  just imagine Coronavirus in the slums of Nairobi, or Sao Paulo, or Jakarta, or Manila, or Calcutta, or Mexico  City,  etc. where "social distancing" will be impossible), subsequent new waves of outbreak will be coming.  Even without taking hold in those poorer nations yet, the infection and death rates from Covid 19 have literally quadrupled in the 'first world' over the last 16 days.  We are nowhere near bending  the curve. This is going to get very ugly over the next month or two in the nicer places on the planet.  But when it hits the underprivileged in other parts of the globe....well...my heart just breaks.

And even when a vaccine is finally released sometime in 2021, it will be nearly impossible to get it distributed in a timely manner---let alone equitably---to 7.8 billion people.  The ripple effects are going to be substantial for at least 5 years.  In my work with Compassion International (a child development ministry in the poorest countries of the world), this is the kind of stuff that keeps me up at night. 

There is a phrase developed by some European thinkers back in the late 60s called The Map of the Problematique.  Essentially its meaning is that the world has become so interconnected via technology, commerce, politics, etc. that when problems arise, they cannot be solved within the terms of each category...there are too many knots that cannot be untangled.    

Certainly the developed nations have a better chance of "recovery"...but things will never be quite the same again.  I am a firm believer that "constant change is here to stay."   It will be intriguing to see how Nashvillians in particular, and humanity as a whole, adapt to these new realities and challenges. 

That was my assessment as well Mark. It is going to be devastating to the underdeveloped countries. This will only be the start too because when people get sick with this, other problems occur such as other disease and famine, not to mention the tribal, ethnic, and religious wars that will still wage as the strong try to make power grabs in these areas taking advantage of the situation.

Unfortunately, I think the world response will be slow as the rest of the world will still be trying to recover and take care of their own. There will be exceptions to the rule, but a lot of folks will be simply worn out or resources will be drained.

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7 hours ago, grilled_cheese said:

It's almost as if people from the most populous areas should be in charge instead of people from the hills who think that magical people will fix things.

But what do I angel love know?  I didn't go to plumber school.

 

Excellent idea.

Everyone could dodge human waste and needles on the sidewalks all while looking over their shoulder for criminals.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, satalac said:

Here is a good site that has graphs for COVID-19. These are just hard numbers, not opinions, no politicizing (not accusing anyone here of that). It looks like Tennessee, while numerically is increasing, the rate of infection is slowing. We still haven't hit peak and will likely not until the end of April, first part of May, and that's if we stay the course (my opinion). There can always be spikes, as there was one from March 30th to the 31st (went from 1.11x growth to 1.25x growth). The deaths in Tennessee have surprisingly been low compared to other states with similar numbers of infected, but I expect that to go up unfortunately due to the situation in Gallatin. So if you want to look at the numbers and make your own opinions, this site is great for looking at trends. Make sure you toggle between log and linear scale as well. 

One other thing, with so much negativity right now, which of course is understandable, please be thankful for what you have. If it's family, friends, health, whatever, be thankful for it. This pandemic WILL be over, but we just need to get through it right now. Staying positive can be just as important as staying healthy. Not being sick can still suck if you're not happy. Stay safe out there everyone and we'll get through this together. 

Thanks for finding that website.  But thanks more for the attitude of gratitude!

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30 minutes ago, satalac said:

One other thing, with so much negativity right now, which of course is understandable, please be thankful for what you have. If it's family, friends, health, whatever, be thankful for it. This pandemic WILL be over, but we just need to get through it right now. Staying positive can be just as important as staying healthy. Not being sick can still suck if you're not happy. Stay safe out there everyone and we'll get through this together. 

Very well said satalac.

According to White House Task Force, we should expect 100,000 to 240,000 deaths here in the United States. While the government does not want to be the authoritarian state, it behooves every individual in this country to take this seriously and do their part. We are in for a economically dark 2020 and possibly first half of 2021. 

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20 minutes ago, satalac said:

Here is a good site that has graphs for COVID-19. These are just hard numbers, not opinions, no politicizing (not accusing anyone here of that). It looks like Tennessee, while numerically is increasing, the rate of infection is slowing. We still haven't hit peak and will likely not until the end of April, first part of May, and that's if we stay the course (my opinion). There can always be spikes, as there was one from March 30th to the 31st (went from 1.11x growth to 1.25x growth). The deaths in Tennessee have surprisingly been low compared to other states with similar numbers of infected, but I expect that to go up unfortunately due to the situation in Gallatin. So if you want to look at the numbers and make your own opinions, this site is great for looking at trends. Make sure you toggle between log and linear scale as well. 

One other thing, with so much negativity right now, which of course is understandable, please be thankful for what you have. If it's family, friends, health, whatever, be thankful for it. This pandemic WILL be over, but we just need to get through it right now. Staying positive can be just as important as staying healthy. Not being sick can still suck if you're not happy. Stay safe out there everyone and we'll get through this together. 

The number of deaths could be attributed to which strain of the virus is prevalent in the state. The type L is the one that was more pronounced in the early stages in China and the Type S is the other strain.

The S strain seems to be a little milder but the jury is still out. It is the older of the two.

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21 minutes ago, smeagolsfree said:

The number of deaths could be attributed to which strain of the virus is prevalent in the state. The type L is the one that was more pronounced in the early stages in China and the Type S is the other strain.

The S strain seems to be a little milder but the jury is still out. It is the older of the two.

Yeah, I've heard there's multiple strands. Typically with viruses, the more they mutate, the weaker they get. Hopefully that will be the case here.

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I'm more optimistic about an antiviral/approved treatment that could reduce the need for hospitalizations (and therefore deaths) than I am a vaccine. There are several drugs being researched, and some are already approved for use for other uses so the turnaround time may be shorter.

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12 minutes ago, VSRJ said:

I'm more optimistic about an antiviral/approved treatment that could reduce the need for hospitalizations (and therefore deaths) than I am a vaccine. There are several drugs being researched, and some are already approved for use for other uses so the turnaround time may be shorter.

The vaccine will come but you are right as it won't be ready until sometime next year. Best near term hope is a treatment that works and reduces severity.

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Response I saw in reply to Cooper's plan to raise taxes:

"That’s what we get for liberals electing a liberal democrat. More taxes, and a sharp increase, at that. Instead of budgeting. We don't need that waste of taxpayer money, the stupid soccer stadium and plaza of retail that will make $15 million per month, off taxpayer funded boondoggle."

We got a lot of people that have lost jobs who are now angry they voted for Cooper

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35 minutes ago, LA_TN said:

Response I saw in reply to Cooper's plan to raise taxes:

"That’s what we get for liberals electing a liberal democrat. More taxes, and a sharp increase, at that. Instead of budgeting. We don't need that waste of taxpayer money, the stupid soccer stadium and plaza of retail that will make $15 million per month, off taxpayer funded boondoggle."

We got a lot of people that have lost jobs who are now angry they voted for Cooper

Yikes... this is not a pro-liberal or pro-conservative statement here, but just generally speaking it always confuses me when people get so worked up about something they very clearly have not bothered to take even a few minutes time to look into.  You'd think you might want to confirm whether outrage is even a valid and reasonable reaction before careening down that road.  

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1 hour ago, BnaBreaker said:

Yikes... this is not a pro-liberal or pro-conservative statement here, but just generally speaking it always confuses me when people get so worked up about something they very clearly have not bothered to take even a few minutes time to look into.  You'd think you might want to confirm whether outrage is even a valid and reasonable reaction before careening down that road.  

The biggest issue with Cooper isn't whether he's a liberal or conservative (pretty sure all Nash mayors are liberal...with a few exceptions)...it's that he went and lied to the populace about not raising their property taxes (which should have been raised a long time ago) so he could get elected...and now he's having to come forth and ask for a big property tax hike when everyone is out of work and hurting because of this virus.  He's in a huge pickle.

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He may not have wanted to raise taxes, but if he didn't raise taxes the State would come in and do it for him because Metro is required to have a balanced budget. It was only going to be a matter of time. 

It would not have mattered if it were a democrat or a republican in office, a tax increase at this stage in the game was impossible to avoid under current conditions. I really think is was going to happen anyway, but this just forced his hand a whole lot sooner than it would have otherwise. 

Steve Glover was running his mouth again, but I have never heard him offer up an alternative. He just stirs the pot and makes people angry. If he really wants to help, he needs to do his job and offer up alternatives instead of second guessing everyone and everything. He just does this in order to get s his self righteous rear end elected to do nothing once he gets in office.

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1 hour ago, smeagolsfree said:

He may not have wanted to raise taxes, but if he didn't raise taxes the State would come in and do it for him because Metro is required to have a balanced budget. It was only going to be a matter of time. 

It would not have mattered if it were a democrat or a republican in office, a tax increase at this stage in the game was impossible to avoid under current conditions. I really think is was going to happen anyway, but this just forced his hand a whole lot sooner than it would have otherwise. 

Steve Glover was running his mouth again, but I have never heard him offer up an alternative. He just stirs the pot and makes people angry. If he really wants to help, he needs to do his job and offer up alternatives instead of second guessing everyone and everything. He just does this in order to get s his self righteous rear end elected to do nothing once he gets in office.

Right. If Cooper didn't do it I think the council would have done it. So good on him on stepping up and owning it as opposed to hiding out and letting council do it.

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5 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

Cooper has total cover in raising taxes. There is no choice. My problem with Cooper is that most folks understood we were going to need a property tax increase (even prior to the virus). He knew it too but pandered to the less informed to get votes. Hard to respect that approach.

Agreed. Everything was smoke and mirrors until the property tax rate was fixed.

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