Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

[MLBrumby]

^^ Agree... I think if anything, when the actual fatality rate is known from a reliable sample, we'll probably learn that it's much lower than 1% (which is unusually high for any airborne virus).  As recently as last week, that rate was being reported in media as 3%.  No wonder the widespread alarm at that number. 

Edited March 5, 2020 by MLBrumby

[Bos2Nash]

My girlfriend has a background in understanding epidemics and global health issues and she was telling me some interesting things. According to an Epidemiologist professor at Harvard, 40%-70% of the population will contract the virus. The major caveat is the vast majority of these cases will be mild symptoms or completely asymptomatic. While this strain of Coronavirus (SARS is another strain of coronavirus) should be taken seriously, we are fortunate enough to live in modern healthcare country where treatment can be accessed. The real concern is going to be when the virus gets to the regions like West Africa (think Ebola area) and that is where the death toll will really climb. In times with virus outbreaks, it is important to remember simple basics washing hands, coughing sneezing awareness, and if you are not feeling good STAY HOME. This is for sure an outbreak that if left uncontrolled could cause chaos, but common sense will help curtail the chaos greatly. 

We actually had a couple manufacturer reps cancel trips into our office over concerns of virus impact. There is no denying that this will slow the economy engine down for a little bit, but similar to SARS and ebola, I do not see it holding it down for long. The media is also not helping with the creating a panic. Let the health professionals handle it and things will work out.

[Craiger]

5 hours ago, DDIG said:

According to an editorial published in NEJM by Anthony Fauci and Clifford Lane from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and CDC director Robert Redfield, the true death rate for the coronavirus could end up being below 1%, which would make it similar to the death rate seen in a severe flu season. 

Literally in the article you link to he says it might be like a severe flu season or even pandemic flu season and you decide that means it’s “b-team flu?”

Again this isn’t the end of the world or even close but even if it’s “just a severe flu” that’s a severe flu on top of regular flu season potentially forever. (Hopefully vaccines come out)The reason the economy is shutting down is because nobody knows yet. There’s incredible risk to assuming a new virus will just be no big deal. You cannot go back in time and recapture the early days of an outbreak. Exponential growth doesn’t work that way.
 

I just don’t understand why you come on here and just decide epidemiologists around the world are all crazy. Are you into climate change denialism too?

[titanhog]

To me, the biggest issue with this flu is how long it takes to recover (up to a month or more)...and you can have it for 14-24 days before symptoms show up...spreading it to others.

[Mr_Bond]

34 minutes ago, Craiger said:

I just don’t understand why you come on here and just decide epidemiologists around the world are all crazy. Are you into climate change denialism too?

This thread is for an open discussion of economic conditions and we shouldn't blow it up with name calling.

BTW, there are quite a few intelligent people who don't agree with your climate change position and they deserve to be heard, but not on this thread.

[Binbin98]

What is crazy is that a 'chinese government expert' is saying Wuhan will be disease free in 3 weeks.

And Chernobyl will be safe in two weeks again. I don't believe both statements one bit. Although the coronavirus is a threat and shouldn't be treated lightly, the media both in america and china get stuff wrong about it all the time.

[smeagolsfree]

I think the example to look at is the assisted living facility and the Disaster Princess Ship. Look at the death rate in the ALF first as several of the people have died there that were not sick before. If this were the regular flu there probably would not have any deaths, due to 1) flu vaccine, 20 milder complications of the flu. This virus has much more significant complications than the flu does as if affects the lower respiratory system more with many more cases of pneumonia. As far as the Disaster Princess goes you can look at the numbers of people that were infected and many were confined to quarters and still got it. A total of 6 deaths from the almost 700 case aboard, so that is a 3.2 death rate. That is controlled case, so that is probably a good estimation of the actual numbers. It may be a little lower if you take into account that there were many older folks aboard the ship.

This is one of the reasons why they need to stop the spread because it seems to hit the older and those with underlying health conditions much harder. (see chart below) The virus seems to be spread by asymptomatic means and possibly by aerosol methods as well. The evidence is pointing to this which is why it makes it so much harder to fight. 

 

[DDIG]

9 hours ago, Craiger said:

Literally in the article you link to he says it might be like a severe flu season or even pandemic flu season and you decide that means it’s “b-team flu?”

Again this isn’t the end of the world or even close but even if it’s “just a severe flu” that’s a severe flu on top of regular flu season potentially forever. (Hopefully vaccines come out)The reason the economy is shutting down is because nobody knows yet. There’s incredible risk to assuming a new virus will just be no big deal. You cannot go back in time and recapture the early days of an outbreak. Exponential growth doesn’t work that way.
 

I just don’t understand why you come on here and just decide epidemiologists around the world are all crazy. Are you into climate change denialism too?

Well Flu has a vaccine and it still kills tens of thousands in the U.S. I opine that Corona, even WITHOUT a vaccine, it going to come in below that.  Thus, I am relegating it to the b-team. This is my decision, no further questions.

[markhollin]

Nashville hotels, tourism industry face triple threat from coronavirus:  leisure, corporate travel,  and corporate groups.

According to the Nashville Convention & Visitors Corp., there have been 30 local event or conference cancelations, with "19 made out of an abundance of caution before the confirmed case" on March 5. The Visitors Corp. said the "vast majority" were "small meetings being hosted by a single hotel." The largest group expected 1,655 attendees.

Fear of the coronavirus has led to event cancellations across the country, including in Baltimore, Orlando,  and Chicago. Virus-related cancelations of planned events at San Francisco's main convention center already have impacted in 150,000 room nights for hotels in the city.
 

More at NBJ here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/03/06/nashville-hotels-tourism-industry-face-triple.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

[Mr_Bond]

This virus will increase the number of people working from home, both on a temporary and permanent basis.  Many companies who have talked about it will now revisit the arrangement and find a way to make it work, even if just for a few weeks or months.  Some of these will see that it will work for them permanently.  Of course, I'm not talking about a company's entire workforce but at least a portion.

[Armacing]

17 hours ago, DDIG said:

This is nothing really. New MD report out that suggests fatality rate is less than 1% and it effects on children are extremely mild. I get it is new, but it is like a b-team flu.

The 1-3% fatality rate that has been reported in various geographies around the world is averaged out over the entire population of people infected by the virus.  I have read that children are basically unaffected by the virus, but those over 60 experience about an 8% fatality rate, and those over 80 experience about a 15% fatality rate.  So for certain demographics within our community, the threat is very real.

[Nash_12South]

There are widespread (internet) rumors of toilet paper, paper towel, Kleenex shortages which are turning into self fulfilling prophecies. My morning trip to Kroger saw everyone leaving the store and inside buying these items in bulk. Just an FYI........

[downtownresident]

6 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

There are widespread (internet) rumors of toilet paper, paper towel, Kleenex shortages which are turning into self fulfilling prophecies. My morning trip to Kroger saw everyone leaving the store and inside buying these items in bulk. Just an FYI........

Exactly why I picked up extra of these items(when I would’ve bought them normally) during my shopping trips two weeks ago. I figured that once we started seeing additional cases that the panic buying would set in. 

Edited March 6, 2020 by downtownresident
Clarified timeline

[Armacing]

8 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

There are widespread (internet) rumors of toilet paper, paper towel, Kleenex shortages which are turning into self fulfilling prophecies. My morning trip to Kroger saw everyone leaving the store and inside buying these items in bulk. Just an FYI........

There was an instance of armed robbers hijacking a truckload of toilet paper in Hong Kong a couple weeks ago.  The comments section of that article was hilarious.  But seriously, the toilet paper shortage phenomenon happened in Hong Kong and Hawaii, probably elsewhere as well.

[nashmoney]

SXSW is canceled over coronavirus concerns

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/media/sxsw-preparation-coronavirus/index.html

Talk about a huge blow to local economies. This only the beginning of this virus continues to spread. Festival season is coming up in a couple of months along with peak travel season. 

[bigeasy]

19 hours ago, Craiger said:

There’s incredible risk to assuming a new virus will just be no big deal. You cannot go back in time and recapture the early days of an outbreak. Exponential growth doesn’t work that way.

Just for the sake of an argument.. Yes there is incredible risk, but it should be the responsibility of the CDC and similar departments on how the response should be. There is no need for the press to spread so much fear/panic. How are we supposed to respond to an actual epidemic when everything is portrayed as one?  China has already stated that over 80% of the documented cases were mild.  That is just documented cases. Who knows how many 1,000s of people have/had it without diagnosis.

 

All this being said, atleast people  are washing their hands now.

 

Edited March 6, 2020 by bigeasy

[volsfanwill]

I have tickets to a play in NYC on the 28th.  I plan on flying up there to attend.  at this point I am looking forward to being in a (relatively) empty new york.

However, i have already told my grand parents that i will not be visiting them for several weeks after i get back.  because even though i could get a mild case, I do not want to pass it to them.  

[BnaBreaker]

5 hours ago, nashmoney said:

SXSW is canceled over coronavirus concerns

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/media/sxsw-preparation-coronavirus/index.html

Talk about a huge blow to local economies. This only the beginning of this virus continues to spread. Festival season is coming up in a couple of months along with peak travel season. 

Maybe I'm just being ignorant or flippant here, but I really don't understand this kind of response.  I heard they were thinking about cancelling The Olympics in Tokyo this summer too if the virus doesn't die down.  This virus has the potential to become a new seasonal norm for us, that we just deal with like the common flu.  So... what, is the human race just... not going to do large scale gatherings anymore, because there might be a risk of catching the glorified flu?   I mean I understand we want to prevent spread where possible, but some people are acting like this is the bubonic plague or something, where we are risking certain death if we go on living a normal life around other human beings.  It all just seems a bit... overblown to me.  Am I underestimating the situation?

Edited March 7, 2020 by BnaBreaker

[Binbin98]

4 hours ago, volsfanwill said:

I have tickets to a play in NYC on the 28th.  I plan on flying up there to attend.  at this point I am looking forward to being in a (relatively) empty new york.

However, i have already told my grand parents that i will not be visiting them for several weeks after i get back.  because even though i could get a mild case, I do not want to pass it to them.  

1. NYC is not empty at all at least not yet. I went to class today and people were everywhere as they are on a normal weekday

2. NYC has one coronavirus case and the patient has been in isolation from the moment she got to JFK airport. That being said, a minor outbreak is occuring in Westchester which is in upstate New York near Connecticut.

All in all I would not bet on an empty New York due to this, New York City was alive as ever during the AIDS outbreak and Swine Flu, although I know this virus is different.

[OnePointEast]

18 minutes ago, Binbin98 said:

1. NYC is not empty at all at least not yet. I went to class today and people were everywhere as they are on a normal weekday

2. NYC has one coronavirus case and the patient has been in isolation from the moment she got to JFK airport. That being said, a minor outbreak is occuring in Westchester which is in upstate New York near Connecticut.

All in all I would not bet on an empty New York due to this, New York City was alive as ever during the AIDS outbreak and Swine Flu, although I know this virus is different.

I thought NYC had more than 40 cases now, 37 of which can be traced to Garbuz.

Edited March 7, 2020 by OnePointEast

[Binbin98]

5 hours ago, OnePointEast said:

I thought NYC had more than 40 cases now, 37 of which can be traced to Garbuz.

Ok so in the tri-state area we are up to 45 but in New York City's five boroughs itsself there are only four cases. One is a single women that has been in quarantine since she got to the airport and the other is a family that was in contact with the Garbuz guy. I am very certain that the number of cases will rise, but where I live there are only 4 cases.

Side note: I would feel terrible if I gave the virus to 37 different people and counting

Edited March 7, 2020 by Binbin98

[KJHburg]

In NC we have 2 cases.  Can you believe this a Raleigh resident visited the very nursing home in Washington state the site of big outbreak and the other case is a person recently back from Italy.  This unfortunately seems to be turning into a massive problem with travel airlines, cruise ships, and hotels across the world and here in the US.   People seem to be stockpiling food and thank goodness there is no problem with the US food production.  

[Nash_12South]

From everything I see in the news, nationally, we likely have hundreds of cases that haven’t been tested yet because the tests aren’t in place and folks don’t have a clue that their “cold” is more serious. There will likely be a flood of new cases this week as more tests get run. It’s apparently easy to spread.
I’m not saying it to be scary. From what they say, for most folks, it won’t be that bad. It’s the panic, the over reacting, to be scared of. 
The SEC tournament could be a mess though. Lots of older fans who don’t need to be in large crowds. 

Edited March 8, 2020 by Nash_12South

[downtownresident]

Italy is going to quarantine 16 million people in the north, including Venice and Milan. 
 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51787238

[MLBrumby]

Yep... good luck with that.