Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

[markhollin]

Bridgestone Tires  will begin reopening its plants and be fully operational by early May across the nation, including in La Vergne. 

In its announcement, Bridgestone said that "to ensure the health and safety of employees, plants resuming operations will do so in alignment with the latest safety protocol guidance from the [U.S.] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The well-being and safety of employees remains the most important priority for the company."

More behind the NBJ paywall here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/04/09/bridgestone-revving-up-tire-plants-ending-covid-19.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

[tragenvol]

Unemployment numbers are out:  another 6.6 million in new jobless claims; 5.5 million expected.

Edited April 9, 2020 by tragenvol

[DDIG]

12 hours ago, UTgrad09 said:

One thing that I heard that I found interesting is that the earlier models assumed that only 50% of Americans would actually practice social distancing, but it turns out 90%+ are actually making a good effort. So I guess they just assumed that most Americans would take it even less seriously than they did, and plotted more along the lines of a worst case scenario.

I'm sure maybe some models did that, but are you sure about that for the UW IMHE model? The model said assuming social distancing until May when it said Tennessee was 7,000 beds short, then said the same thing when it updated to say we have  a 6,000 bed surplus. 

[Craiger]

They tell you what they changed. At a high level, they got more data from countries that have already peaked suggesting a faster time between "lockdown" and peak, and they also got more data on hospital stay lengths and ratios to deaths. Several other things are discussed as well. 

http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/Estimation_update_040520_1.pdf

[markhollin]

More than 47,000 residents of Greater Nashville sought unemployment benefits for the first time last week, a jump of nearly 50% compared to the week before.

More behind the NBJ paywall here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/04/09/local-unemployment-claims-jump-nearly-50-in-one.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

 

[nashwatcher]

A chunk of Nashville’s economy is based on people being in tight quarters (Bridgestone Arena, music venues, Broadway bars, restaurant scene, our tourist economy, etc )

Is anyone else concerned that what gives Nashville it’s vibe is especially vulnerable to the possibility of social distancing for the foreseeable future? 

[Nashvillain]

56 minutes ago, nashwatcher said:

A chunk of Nashville’s economy is based on people being in tight quarters (Bridgestone Arena, music venues, Broadway bars, restaurant scene, our tourist economy, etc )

Is anyone else concerned that what gives Nashville it’s vibe is especially vulnerable to the possibility of social distancing for the foreseeable future? 

I think everyone is...? 

[MLBrumby]

Things like this crisis are (like everything else) a pendulum.  I personally don't expect this shutting off the economy to last ten more days. With the numbers of new cases coming down in the USA now and the models being discredited, in addition to several effective treatment protocols being discovered and embraced, I think Monday 4/20 offices and other non-essential businesses are going to start reopening (we may even start to see it next week). And I'm one of the at-risk people with severe asthma. But people can't stay like this much longer without saying, "F--- it! I'll deal with the risks." I'm already hearing it with people in my line of work... and you can rest assured you'll start seeing lawsuits coming too.  I've heard of no fewer than a dozen people being represented by lawyers for having their rights to worship restricted. There could be an avalanche of such litigation. 

People feel better about the curve being flatter and will wear ppe. Many are already saying, "I have to eat and pay my rent. I don't want to go bankrupt. Is that better than getting a flu?"  Plus, I'm hearing of a lot of problems with businesses getting the loans in the Phase 3 relief bill.  In many places it will be a form of civil disobedience. First will be small independent businesses and retail outlets.  Last will be Airlines, but with restrictions. Their demand won't completely return for possibly a year (pending an effective vaccine), but I tend to be an optimist and believe in the longer run, a lot of good will come out of this. 

Edited April 11, 2020 by MLBrumby

[downtownresident]

2 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

Things like this crisis are (like everything else) a pendulum.  I personally don't expect this shutting off the economy to last ten more days. With the numbers of new cases coming down in the USA now and the models being discredited, in addition to several effective treatment protocols being discovered and embraced, I think Monday 4/20 offices and other non-essential businesses are going to start reopening (we may even start to see it next week). And I'm one of the at-risk people with severe asthma. But people can't stay like this much longer without saying, "F--- it! I'll deal with the risks." I'm already hearing it with people in my line of work... and you can rest assured you'll start seeing lawsuits coming too.  I've heard of no fewer than a dozen people being represented by lawyers for having their rights to worship restricted. There could be an avalanche of such litigation. 

People feel better about the curve being flatter and will wear ppe. Many are already saying, "I have to eat and pay my rent. I don't want to go bankrupt. Is that better than getting a flu?"  Plus, I'm hearing of a lot of problems with businesses getting the loans in the Phase 3 relief bill.  In many places it will be a form of civil disobedience. First will be small independent businesses and retail outlets.  Last will be Airlines, but with restrictions. Their demand won't completely return for possibly a year (pending an effective vaccine), but I tend to be an optimist and believe in the longer run, a lot of good will come out of this. 

IMO, we’ll see widespread adoption of PPE in public spaces, and most business(minus businesses with people in very close quarters) will slowly reopen. 

[OnePointEast]

2 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

Things like this crisis are (like everything else) a pendulum.  I personally don't expect this shutting off the economy to last ten more days. With the numbers of new cases coming down in the USA now and the models being discredited, in addition to several effective treatment protocols being discovered and embraced, I think Monday 4/20 offices and other non-essential businesses are going to start reopening (we may even start to see it next week).

I think the economy doesn't restart until late April at the earliest. Restaurant dine-in will not be an option until at least late May or early June in a best case scenario. Many places have different peaks throughout next month and early in the month of June.

[Nash_12South]

My company informed us this week we are working from home through May to avoid being part of a second wave which will come as we see things opening back up. As of today, I think the governor will start allowing reopening in early May. I don’t know if the mayor will follow, as VUMC is pushing that we won’t peak until mid May. California announced their restrictions are going to mid-May. 
There will be an inevitable resurgence of cases as we reopen our economy. But we won’t have a vaccine until a year from now, by optimistic reports. We can’t be closed that long, so we bite the bullet and get started. Soon, I hope.

Edited April 11, 2020 by Nash_12South

[tragenvol]

1 hour ago, Nash_12South said:

But we won’t have a vaccine until a year from now, by optimistic reports. We can’t be closed that long, so we bite the bullet and get started. Soon, I hope.

True, or even longer....COVID-19 is SARS 2; we still do not have a vaccine for SARS-1.

[DDIG]

1 hour ago, Nash_12South said:

My company informed us this week we are working from home through May to avoid being part of a second wave which will come as we see things opening back up. As of today, I think the governor will start allowing reopening in early May. I don’t know if the mayor will follow, as VUMC is pushing that we won’t peak until mid May. California announced their restrictions are going to mid-May. 
There will be an inevitable resurgence of cases as we reopen our economy. But we won’t have a vaccine until a year from now, by optimistic reports. We can’t be closed that long, so we bite the bullet and get started. Soon, I hope.

I'm very confused by Vanderbilt's model. I don't claim to be a scientist or a doctor or smart in any of this, just logically I don't understand how Nashville has been locked it pretty effectively for more than a month now, and suddenly we are going to have a peak in Mid-May or June. Like the basic math of incubation and course of the virus doesn't add up here. The IMHE model had us peaking next week, but it seems like we are getting there sooner than later and we never even got close to stressing our healthcare system in Nashville. At one point recently Vandy had about 30 COVID patients with 900 beds ready to go.

I say in early May you start seeing businesses open back up, and wearing PPE in public. 

 

[smeagolsfree]

3 hours ago, tragenvol said:

True, or even longer....COVID-19 is SARS 2; we still do not have a vaccine for SARS-1.

I dont know if they will come out with a permanent vaccine because this is the same virus that cause the common cold. They have not found a cure for that yet and people may only have a 6 month to a year immunity to this virus at best from what I am seeing and reading.

So best case is they have a great anti viral if you catch it and maybe a yearly COVID vaccine that everyone gets. This thing may be around for a while.

[markhollin]

Music City Center is sending another $40 million to the city's tight budget during the coronavirus pandemic.

The money will be broken down to $5 million for the current budget and $35 million for next fiscal year. The money comes from the millions the center collects from tourist-targeted taxes and fees from the downtown area. The money will be allocated to assist Metro with expenses that are related to tourism.  

More at The Tennessean here:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/10/music-city-center-gives-40-m-nashvilles-tight-budget/5123209002/

[DDIG]

57 minutes ago, markhollin said:

Music City Center is sending another $40 million to the city's tight budget during the coronavirus pandemic.

The money will be broken down to $5 million for the current budget and $35 million for next fiscal year. The money comes from the millions the center collects from tourist-targeted taxes and fees from the downtown area. The money will be allocated to assist Metro with expenses that are related to tourism.  

More at The Tennessean here:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/10/music-city-center-gives-40-m-nashvilles-tight-budget/5123209002/

What's interesting is the MCC is depleting its rainy day fund to help the city out, when in fact the Music City Center is in serious danger. WHO KNOWS when people will start booking conferences again? That may never really fully come back.

 

[Rockatansky]

Given what I've been reading, I hope the Stay at Home orders remain in place through at least Jun 1. If we reopen too early it'll be like going back to square one and I don't want to have to go through this again in mid-late Summer.

[JoeyX]

2 hours ago, DDIG said:

What's interesting is the MCC is depleting its rainy day fund to help the city out, when in fact the Music City Center is in serious danger. WHO KNOWS when people will start booking conferences again? That may never really fully come back.

 

Group associations use conventions to make money.

[Nash_12South]

1 hour ago, JoeyX said:

Group associations use conventions to make money.

I could see meetings/conventions starting up by July/August - with lots of masks and social distancing. At some point MCC will need to start enforcing it's contracts for later in the year commitments. Many won't come, but many will. Everything is dependent on the curve staying level and slowly coming down.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Nash_12South

[Armacing]

I will be curious to see what happens when the inevitable second wave of infections starts.  Will everything go on lockdown again, or will it become a new normal of minimal social interaction but still going to work that lasts for a couple of years?  Personally, I think it could be years before people think it is "worth the risk" to attend large events.  Certain segments of the population might never feel comfortable attending large events again.  Heck, there was a segment of the population who hated crowds before this happened.  Now they really have a reason to avoid crowds.

Where once there was blind, unquestioning optimism about the future, now there is a sober realism, pragmatism, possibly even pessimism in some circles.  COVID me once, shame on you.  COVID me twice, shame on me.  We will finally get to see what an American style disaster-preparedness culture looks like... something that probably hasn't been seen in a generation.  Or maybe several generations?  And I don't think that new culture includes frivolous spending no matter how much free money the government sends in the mail.  This could be a great awakening that prepares us for the real disaster just around the corner - who knows? 

For me the most interesting question is will the economic downturn become self-sustaining.  Will meetings and conventions be cancelled not because of virus fears, but because businesses can't afford to meet in person?  Will large meetings move online and usher in the golden age of virtual meetings and remote working that has been promised as a benefit of new technology since the early 2000's?  Will reluctance to go shopping finally provide  the demand side of the equation that makes drone delivery a reality?   I can't wait to learn the answers!

[Nash_12South]

Pretty downbeat assessment. 
At this point most of us don’t really know anyone that has died from this. Many of us will catch it as we open up and 80% will have minor symptoms and move on. A percentage of the remaining will be sick and recover. We will definitely be reminded of it at every large assembly of people over the next year. But sporting events will restart and we will tune out the downsides and enjoy getting some semblance of our old lives back. The negative folks will wallow in this, but most will simply move on....my jaded two cents. 

[CaptainJilliams]

I think when a second wave does hit, I believe we will be much more prepared and capable of handling it. The general public has been well educated on the correct procedures to follow, hospitals should have a better stock of necessary medical equipment due to the current shifts in production, and hopefully more progress will have been made on developing a vaccination. 

Life will definitely be different, and there will certainly be people who are more paranoid to go out in public/attend public events. But I think a large majority of the population is anxious to get back out and do the things they used to do, I'm certainly looking forward to traveling again.  I don't think it will be "a couple years" before people start attending events again, I think it it's far more likely the venues hosting these events make the decision to cancel. As proof, just look to the instances of people breaking protocol to party on Spring Break, Post Malone concerts, and all those churches still holding services. While I strongly disagree with each decision on the part of the participants, it just goes to show that there are plenty of people willing to do what they want regardless of risk and how foolish it is.

Once restrictions are lifted, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we see a significant boom in the tourism industry. 

[markhollin]

In the final days of March and early days of April, hotels within two miles of the bull's-eye of downtown generated an average of $7.95 of revenue per room.

That's a 97% plummet from where that benchmark stood one year ago, according to hospitality data firm STR.

"The industry's very sick," says Jan Freitag of STR. "These are unprecedented declines. We've been doing this 30 years, and we've never reported numbers like this in any downturn, anywhere."

More behind the NBJ paywall here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/04/14/hotels-use-this-stat-to-judge-their-health-in.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline
 

These charts are compiled form hotels within a 2 mile radius of 5th and Broadway:

[grilled_cheese]

22 minutes ago, CaptainJilliams said:

I think when a second wave does hit, I believe we will be much more prepared and capable of handling it. The general public has been well educated on the correct procedures to follow, hospitals should have a better stock of necessary medical equipment due to the current shifts in production, and hopefully more progress will have been made on developing a vaccination. 

Life will definitely be different, and there will certainly be people who are more paranoid to go out in public/attend public events. But I think a large majority of the population is anxious to get back out and do the things they used to do, I'm certainly looking forward to traveling again.  I don't think it will be "a couple years" before people start attending events again, I think it it's far more likely the venues hosting these events make the decision to cancel. As proof, just look to the instances of people breaking protocol to party on Spring Break, Post Malone concerts, and all those churches still holding services. While I strongly disagree with each decision on the part of the participants, it just goes to show that there are plenty of people willing to do what they want regardless of risk and how foolish it is.

Once restrictions are lifted, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we see a significant boom in the tourism industry. 

We'd be lucky if they cancelled.  At this rate it looks like everything will be postponed so they don't have to refund money on their own, they'll make people fight for it.  I've got probably $1500 locked up in concert tickets and nothing has been cancelled, only postponed or rescheduled.

[MidTenn1]

14 hours ago, Nash_12South said:

Pretty downbeat assessment. 
At this point most of us don’t really know anyone that has died from this. Many of us will catch it as we open up and 80% will have minor symptoms and move on. A percentage of the remaining will be sick and recover. We will definitely be reminded of it at every large assembly of people over the next year. But sporting events will restart and we will tune out the downsides and enjoy getting some semblance of our old lives back. The negative folks will wallow in this, but most will simply move on....my jaded two cents. 

I guess I'm one of those 'negative, wallowing' folks you are referring to. I have several risk factors and will probably not un-wallow until I have some confidence the virus is under control or there is a vaccine. But that should not affect your life in any way. Good luck.