Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

[Mr_Bond]

17 hours ago, Armacing said:

And I don't think that new culture includes frivolous spending no matter how much free money the government sends in the mail.

Here is a recent example of a major shift in attitudes based on economic events.  After the Global Financial Crisis, Americans changed their attitudes toward debt.  And this was a multi-generational shift.  This graph illustrates the point.  Not only did we pay off some excess debt, we did not replace it with new debt, and we continue to reduce debt burdens as seen in the slight downtick late 2017-early 2018.

Post-pandemic we could see corporations increase the amount of their normal operating cash levels and households add to their emergency funds.  Pushing against this will be the Federal Reserve's Keynesian economic policies that emphasize debt as a growth tool.  They want to force us to put our cash into riskier holdings by pushing short term interest rates to zero.  However, humans feel pain at twice the level they seek gain, so we are likely to hold on to the cash even though we're not earning much interest.

The new culture is likely to include 'frivolous' spending but it will be backed by a stronger financial foundation that can weather the next storm. 

[UTgrad09]

4 hours ago, PHofKS said:

I guess I'm one of those 'negative, wallowing' folks you are referring to. I have several risk factors and will probably not un-wallow until I have some confidence the virus is under control or there is a vaccine. But that should not affect your life in any way. Good luck.

No time to wallow, Pete. You have plenty of photoshop work to do.

[markhollin]

Nashville's Mayor Cooper, like Gov. Lee for the state, is aiming to reopen some businesses in Nashville by May.

"Let's get back to work in May. We hope that is a possibility," Cooper said. "We'll only be able to get there if we do social distancing very well right now."

"This is the week for assessing the challenges behind how to do that," Cooper said of the prospect of getting more of Nashville's $64 billion economy back into gear. "It will probably be in a phased approach, over time. The next phase, for sure, will require robust testing capability."

More at NBJ here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/04/14/cooper-eyes-may-to-begin-ramping-up-nashvilles.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

[Armacing]

5 hours ago, Mr_Bond said:

Post-pandemic we could see corporations increase the amount of their normal operating cash levels and households add to their emergency funds.  Pushing against this will be the Federal Reserve's Keynesian economic policies that emphasize debt as a growth tool.  They want to force us to put our cash into riskier holdings by pushing short term interest rates to zero.  However, humans feel pain at twice the level they seek gain, so we are likely to hold on to the cash even though we're not earning much interest.

That's the crux of the matter, isn't it?  Will the Fed be able to wield it's fiscal tools in a way that achieves the desired outcome.  Other governments (Japan, Sweden, Denmark, etc.) have gone so far as to institute negative interest rates - and that was before the corona virus.  Where do they go now? 

OK, we're at zero today... What happens when people say "wow, inflation is really around 10% per year [reference link below], yet I make zero % in my savings account, and the stock market can loose 20% overnight - this sucks"?  I think before the pandemic joe public was like "whatever", but hopefully now they see the need to save something for a rainy day.  That will press the issue when they realize they have no way to save money without loosing it to inflation or stock market fluctuations.  Could be wishful thinking on my part, but go check on what the price of gold has done since the Fed first started their repo operations last fall.

Inflation link that I promised (you want to look at the bottom chart using the definition for inflation that was used in 1980): http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

OK, saving you some clicks, here's a gold price chart: https://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au0365nyb_.html

Edited April 14, 2020 by Armacing

[DDIG]

17 hours ago, markhollin said:

Nashville's Mayor Cooper, like Gov. Lee for the state, is aiming to reopen some businesses in Nashville by May.

"Let's get back to work in May. We hope that is a possibility," Cooper said. "We'll only be able to get there if we do social distancing very well right now."

"This is the week for assessing the challenges behind how to do that," Cooper said of the prospect of getting more of Nashville's $64 billion economy back into gear. "It will probably be in a phased approach, over time. The next phase, for sure, will require robust testing capability."

More at NBJ here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/04/14/cooper-eyes-may-to-begin-ramping-up-nashvilles.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

I think that is right. Nashville cases are statistically minimal and will get even further statistically minimal over the next three weeks.

When this conversation started it was about flattening the curve to not overwhelm our healthcare system. Tennessee's system never got even close to being overwhelmed. I think we can be successful starting to turn the economy on while practicing social distancing, better hygiene, etc.

Cases will still happen, and we'll have to do our best to accept that and mitigate. I find it fascinating in California for example, the narrative has switched to we can't reopen until a vaccine or herd immunity.  Gonna be a lot of frustration in California when other states start opening.

Also media is going to have to calm down and recognize this is part of life for awhile. A corona case isn't a death sentence. I fear when some elements of society open back up we'll have breaking news headlines ONE PERSON AT RESTAURANT TESTS POSITIVE FOR CORONA and people will pressure closure again even if it is statistically minimal infections. 

[DDIG]

As a side note, I'd be really interested to know what the prevalence of public transportation means to the virus transmission. Did Nashville's nonexistent public transportation ultimately help us?

 

They say the best way to catch it is 10-15 minute close quarter exposure to someone infected. New York subways are compact, used by millions of people. New York transportation was the perfect breeding ground.

Edited April 15, 2020 by DDIG

[OnePointEast]

5 minutes ago, DDIG said:

 

They say the best way to catch it is 10-15 minute close quarter exposure to someone infected. New York subways are compact, used by millions of people. New York transportation was the perfect breeding ground.

This most likely means that dine-in restaurants will be around the last phase to open up?

[DDIG]

2 minutes ago, OnePointEast said:

This most likely means that dine-in restaurants will be around the last phase to open up?

Yeah restaurants are going to be tricky. When they do open I imagine they'll have tight capacity caps - and with that how do you manage profitability? Some of them are in spots that command high rents. I don't envy those in that business.

Edited April 15, 2020 by DDIG

[OnePointEast]

1 minute ago, DDIG said:

Yeah restaurants are going to be tricky. When they do open I imagine they'll have tight capacity caps - and with that how do you manage profitability? Some of them are in spots to command high rents. I don't envy those in that business.

I believe dine-in will not be an option until at least early June, with a 50% capacity until there's some sort of mass testing and some infrastructure put in place to trace and test at a national level.

[BnaBreaker]

8 hours ago, OnePointEast said:

I believe dine-in will not be an option until at least early June, with a 50% capacity until there's some sort of mass testing and some infrastructure put in place to trace and test at a national level.

I agree that this will be vital, but given the aversion of a... uh... certain human male who happens to be in charge to using the federal government to set up a coordinated national system of testing, who knows when we will get to that point.  

I did my best to say that without making any obvious political references for the sake of certain folks.  I hope my efforts sufficed.  

Edited April 15, 2020 by BnaBreaker

[Mr_Bond]

4 hours ago, BnaBreaker said:

I agree that this will be vital, but given the aversion of a... uh... certain human male who happens to be in charge to using the federal government to set up a coordinated national system of testing, who knows when we will get to that point.  

I did my best so say that without making any obvious political references for the sake of certain folks.  I hope my efforts sufficed.  

The testing will have to be done like everything else has been done in the pandemic: on a state by state, city by city basis.

What if dine-in restaurants had a section for social distancing and a section for non-social distancing?  It would be like when we had "smoking or non-smoking?" back in the day.  This would allow them to turn more tables for patrons who choose it (younger, already over the virus) while giving the nervous crowd a place as well.

[markhollin]

^ ^ ^ That would be about as effective as having a peeing and non-peeing section in a swimming pool.   ; )

[thenorthchannel]

In today's press conference NY Governor, Andrew Cuomo, identified 2 metrics by which NY will be using to identify which businesses can open.   Essential and risk of spread.  In other words, how essential is a business and what is the risk of spreading the disease by the business being open.   An example, of a not essential but low risk of spread business is a drive-in movie theatre.    That kind of business could be early to open despite not being very essential.   

In my view, the honky-tonks on Broadway are highly unessential with a high risk of spread.   Im interested to see how Nashville addresses this.  Live music is the brand of Nashville and I don't see how we can safely get back to that until a vaccine arises.   The timeline for vaccine is pretty consistently reported at 18 months.   Perhaps another treatment methodology arrives sooner.

 Can you imagine having to flash an immunity passport and have your temperature taken just to walk into Tootsie's?  Or could they lower capacity to like 50 people and charge like a $50 cover?  I don't have the answers, I'm just wondering out loud on my keyboard. 

[Nash_12South]

Offices successfully working from home will likely maintain doing that well into May (like my employer) while those needing the office setting will start back. Retail could start back with workers in masks and lots of hand washing. Maybe shops/malls operate 10-6 for a while. Dine in restaurants can do 50% capacity through May. Broadway needs some level of tourism and that won’t really return to any degree  until summer. I can see strictly bars staying closed until June with maybe Friday-Sunday hours in June. All guesswork.

[markhollin]

Nissan is planning on reopening its plants across North America, including the 8,000 employee Smyrna factory, in late April.  Also, their 1,850 employee Cool Springs HQ offices will be reopening.  No word on the Bridgestone Tower downtown.

More behind theNBJ paywall here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/04/15/nissan-extends-shutdown-amid-covid-19-and-sales.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

[Rockatansky]

12 hours ago, thenorthchannel said:

immunity passport

Has it been proven that those who've recovered from COVID19 have immunity to it? I'm not certain it has.

[DDIG]

13 hours ago, thenorthchannel said:

In today's press conference NY Governor, Andrew Cuomo, identified 2 metrics by which NY will be using to identify which businesses can open.   Essential and risk of spread.  In other words, how essential is a business and what is the risk of spreading the disease by the business being open.   An example, of a not essential but low risk of spread business is a drive-in movie theatre.    That kind of business could be early to open despite not being very essential.   

In my view, the honky-tonks on Broadway are highly unessential with a high risk of spread.   Im interested to see how Nashville addresses this.  Live music is the brand of Nashville and I don't see how we can safely get back to that until a vaccine arises.   The timeline for vaccine is pretty consistently reported at 18 months.   Perhaps another treatment methodology arrives sooner.

 Can you imagine having to flash an immunity passport and have your temperature taken just to walk into Tootsie's?  Or could they lower capacity to like 50 people and charge like a $50 cover?  I don't have the answers, I'm just wondering out loud on my keyboard. 

OK but let's not call us New York. There are going to be different solutions for different places. New York was and is the perfect storm.

5 hours ago, Nash_12South said:

Offices successfully working from home will likely maintain doing that well into May (like my employer) while those needing the office setting will start back. Retail could start back with workers in masks and lots of hand washing. Maybe shops/malls operate 10-6 for a while. Dine in restaurants can do 50% capacity through May. Broadway needs some level of tourism and that won’t really return to any degree  until summer. I can see strictly bars staying closed until June with maybe Friday-Sunday hours in June. All guesswork.

There's no reason I shouldn't be able to go get a haircut from someone wearing a mask. And I really need it!

[Bos2Nash]

Some research is saying the antibodies are not developing in those who have recovered from the virus. That essentially tells us that the virus is mutating and a one-size fits all vaccine may not be the answer. Initial reports were that we were only seeing a minor amount of mutations, but with the lack of antebody development, that could be changing the approach to combating the virus. If this is in fact, the case any vaccine would be seasonal, similar to the annual Flu vaccine. There is no way our economy can wait for any form of vaccine though, nothing would survive that time period of waiting. With the hold on evictions and banks not being able to collect money from building owners who are not collecting money from tenants, everything would fold. Even the "cash-rich" big boxes aren't paying rents.

[VSRJ]

1 hour ago, Bos2Nash said:

Some research is saying the antibodies are not developing in those who have recovered from the virus. That essentially tells us that the virus is mutating and a one-size fits all vaccine may not be the answer. Initial reports were that we were only seeing a minor amount of mutations, but with the lack of antebody development, that could be changing the approach to combating the virus. If this is in fact, the case any vaccine would be seasonal, similar to the annual Flu vaccine. There is no way our economy can wait for any form of vaccine though, nothing would survive that time period of waiting. With the hold on evictions and banks not being able to collect money from building owners who are not collecting money from tenants, everything would fold. Even the "cash-rich" big boxes aren't paying rents.

Do you have links to any of that research? I'm curious in learning more. I know there were some people in China who tested positive after being released from care, but these were thought to have been cases where they were discharged too soon before they truly recovered.

[Nash_12South]

5 hours ago, markhollin said:

Nissan is planning on reopening its plants across North America, including the 8,000 employee Smyrna factory, in late April.  Also, their 1,850 employee Cool Springs HQ offices will be reopening.  No word on the Bridgestone Tower downtown.

More behind theNBJ paywall here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/04/15/nissan-extends-shutdown-amid-covid-19-and-sales.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

I couldn't read the actual article, but my Nissan working spouse is hearing that things will not be reopening until sometime in May. 

Edited April 16, 2020 by Nash_12South

[DDIG]

19 minutes ago, VSRJ said:

Do you have links to any of that research? I'm curious in learning more. I know there were some people in China who tested positive after being released from care, but these were thought to have been cases where they were discharged too soon before they truly recovered.

I too would like a link to this research as I've seen nothing that suggests what he is saying definitively.

[etimer13]

19 minutes ago, VSRJ said:

Do you have links to any of that research? I'm curious in learning more. I know there were some people in China who tested positive after being released from care, but these were thought to have been cases where they were discharged too soon before they truly recovered.

Here's a good explanation of mutation/vaccine research from today's NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/16/opinion/coronavirus-mutations-vaccine-covid.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

[DDIG]

12 minutes ago, etimer13 said:

Here's a good explanation of mutation/vaccine research from today's NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/16/opinion/coronavirus-mutations-vaccine-covid.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

That article is a whole lot of speculation and we don't really know. I mean its not really wrong, the FLU vaccine is a complete guessing game and sometimes it is less than 40% effective. 

Everything I've read has said the virus is mutating but pretty slowly compared to many viruses. So again, it is all wait and see, but I don't believe that naturally developing antibodies are uneffective, we just don't know yet how long they last.

[etimer13]

2 minutes ago, DDIG said:

That article is a whole lot of speculation and we don't really know. I mean its not really wrong, the FLU vaccine is a complete guessing game and sometimes it is less than 40% effective. 

Everything I've read has said the virus is mutating but pretty slowly compared to many viruses. So again, it is all wait and see, but I don't believe that naturally developing antibodies are uneffective, we just don't know yet how long they last.

Yeah, I think you're saying exactly what the article is saying.  So far, the mutations that are being seen should not hinder a vaccine, but it's definitely wait and see.  And as for immunity after exposure, most seem to think it should last 1-2 years, but again, wait and see. 

[DDIG]

41 minutes ago, etimer13 said:

Yeah, I think you're saying exactly what the article is saying.  So far, the mutations that are being seen should not hinder a vaccine, but it's definitely wait and see.  And as for immunity after exposure, most seem to think it should last 1-2 years, but again, wait and see. 

Again to me it goes back to the reality of this virus. We shutdown to not overwhelm the healthcare system. Most states were VERY successful at this, Tennessee being one. Now we have to learn to live with the virus. Increased safety and hygeine. Some seem to have moved the goalpost that it is not safe to do anything until a vaccine. That is unsustainable. We need to start to reopen with precautions. I think MOST people will do a better job of being distant, washing their hands, wearing a mask in public, etc.