Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

[VSRJ]

^ I agree.  This is not sustainable. But I feel like you can't say that without being accused of not caring about the at-risk population. There are different but just as serious consequences for continuing on like this.

[titanhog]

I'm hopeful they're also getting close to figuring out some actual treatments, as well...especially considering the vaccine could take months / over a year.  I know the Hydroxychloroquine cocktail has worked for some...not for others (we'll leave that up to doctors to decide)...but hoping they come up with something more sure-fire as another wall against this virus until we get a good vaccine.

[markhollin]

Nashville Mayor John Cooper is teaming up with Memphis Mayor Jim Strickland, Chattanooga Mayor Andy Berke, and Knoxville Mayor Indya Kincannon to create a joint restoration plan for business activity from Covid 19.

More at The Nashville Post here:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/politics/metro-government/article/21128896/bigcity-mayors-team-up-on-recovery-plan

[DDIG]

1 hour ago, titanhog said:

I'm hopeful they're also getting close to figuring out some actual treatments, as well...especially considering the vaccine could take months / over a year.  I know the Hydroxychloroquine cocktail has worked for some...not for others (we'll leave that up to doctors to decide)...but hoping they come up with something more sure-fire as another wall against this virus until we get a good vaccine.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/sp-500-etf-jumps-2percent-after-hours-on-report-gilead-drug-showing-effectiveness-treating-coronavirus.html

[BnaBreaker]

Can't wait to hear how many thousands of dollars pharmaceutical companies are going to charge for a Covid-19 treatment!

[DDIG]

https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rYDX4WWYX9Qg/v0

[markhollin]

Highlights from a good piece by Adam Sichko of NBJ on how Covid-19 pandemic will effect Nashville's office building boom:

Nashville has soared to unprecedented heights during a years-long real estate boom that has transformed the skyline and attracted money from around the world.

Its newest distinction is a boon for tenants scouting for office space, but a harrowing new reality for the people who own and develop those buildings: Of the nation’s 53 biggest metro areas, no place is growing office space more aggressively than Nashville.

The 4.5 million square feet of space being built right now equals 11.3% of the region’s existing supply, according to an analysis by real estate brokerage firm Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. And that doesn’t count the newly funded 24-story office building GBT Realty Corp. began this month at 1221 Broadway.

By that measure, Nashville eclipses the construction in Charlotte, Silicon Valley, Austin, Raleigh, Salt Lake City and Seattle — markets with anywhere from 10 million to 60 million square feet more space, according to JLL. A similar analysis by CoStar Group Inc. also finds Nashville atop a heap of metros, most of which have larger populations and bigger economies.

For now, it looks like a perilous place to be, against the backdrop of a pandemic that has brought the national economy to its knees and shut down vital pieces of Nashville’s private sector. The indefinite duration of the coronavirus crisis, and an upcoming presidential election, foster the kind of uncertainty that can stall a company’s decision to expand or relocate — movement that fuels the real estate industry. Coronavirus has drastically worsened Metro’s budget woes, and months before then, Mayor John Cooper’s administration said incentives for recruiting companies to town would “be in the back seat” for awhile.

Until now, office buildings in the region were filling up about as fast as developers could build them. That emboldened more developers and investors to make riskier and more ambitious bets, beginning construction without any tenants.

For Nashville, that’s a rare kind of “speculative” project. But the funding flowed in, from billionaire investors and institutional ones such as insurance companies and pension funds. The money came from investors and lenders in areas such as New York, Austin, Canada, Dallas, San Diego and Los Angeles. Developers from Huntsville began building the Broadwest project in Midtown without tenants, as they pursue the city’s largest multi-tenant office building since Pinnacle at Symphony Place opened in 2009. They financed two years of activity on their own, finalizing a $279 million construction loan last month from Bank OZK, based in Little Rock.

It all created a veneer of invincibility, even in the eyes of a veteran such as Tom Smith, who’s developed and owned office buildings in the region for 40 years. One of his several previous companies, a venture with developer John Eakin, served as the springboard for today’s largest office landlord, Highwoods Properties Inc., to enter the market.

Smith, founding principal at Smith/Hallemann Partners, doesn’t expect entire projects to go belly-up. But leasing those new buildings will require more time and money than expected — not at all what developers in Nashville have been used to.

“It’s going to be a bumpy ride in the office space business for the next eight quarters,” Smith said. “Not everyone will be a winner in this scenario, I’m afraid.”

. . .

Mayor Cooper's slowing on incentives is influencing decisions that some developers are making as they weigh whether to begin building their project without tenants, said Lance Patterson, founder of Patterson Real Estate Advisory Group. The firm plays matchmaker between developers, equity investors and lenders.

“How do you fill up a ‘spec’ office building? Two places: I steal them from another guy’s office building, or somebody new moves to town. I just lost one of those two options,” Patterson said at a March 5 forum at Vanderbilt University. “We’ve had a client who was going to do a big office building, and they’re pausing, for this exact reason.”

“Let’s take a 300,000-square-foot office building. That building costs $150 million. The equity check is $60 million. These are smart people: prudent, slow, cautious,” Patterson said. “They’re thinking, ‘I’m now concerned about new tenants moving to Nashville. Do I really want to do that? Maybe, maybe not. But it is an election year. And, we are kind of at the top of the [real estate] cycle. And, coronavirus.’ They then spiral into, ‘I’m better just not doing anything right now. I’ll wait.’”

Days after Patterson spoke, coronavirus began sweeping through the U.S., triggering an abrupt economic catastrophe. 

More behind the NBJ paywall here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/04/17/its-going-to-be-a-bumpy-ride-our-office-boom-hits.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

[MLBrumby]

Backs up what I've heard recently from three different reliable sources: John Cooper scared off Oracle. The lesson there is one every city's mayor ought to know: NEVER EVER do anything to to kill business during your first year in office! First, growth for any city (even boomtowns that have boosters who believe it's invincible) can stop abruptly and all cities experience natural growth cycles caused by variations in the local labor pool and national/global economic conditions. Second, if you're a new mayor you don't want to get a reputation as antibusiness so early in your term, no matter the reasons your supporters sent you to the office. Now Cooper has a bad reputation and the rotten national economy may keep him from being able to change that before he faces reelection. And now he has to raise taxes, which will damage his support among the very (anti-growth) people who sent him there. With the last name of Cooper and a deep-seated member of the Middle TN political machine, it won't be nearly as easy to get rid of him as it was Barry and Briley.  Nashville gets to have him for three and  a half more years.  It should be interesting to see how the CofC deals with him. I predict by the end of his term, the CofC will be dealing directly with 2-3 key members of the Metro Council instead of the mayor's office. One of those c.m.'s will be the next mayor.  Would really like to hear @bwithers1 chime in on this topic. 

[DDIG]

6 minutes ago, MLBrumby said:

Backs up what I've heard recently from three different reliable sources: John Cooper scared off Oracle. The lesson there is one every city's mayor ought to know: NEVER EVER do anything to to kill business during your first year in office! First, growth for any city (even boomtowns that have boosters who believe it's invincible) can stop abruptly and all cities experience natural growth cycles caused by variations in the local labor pool and national/global economic conditions. Second, if you're a new mayor you don't want to get a reputation as antibusiness so early in your term, no matter the reasons your supporters sent you to the office. Now Cooper has a bad reputation and the rotten national economy may keep him from being able to change that before he faces reelection. And now he has to raise taxes, which will damage his support among the very (anti-growth) people who sent him there. With the last name of Cooper and a deep-seated member of the Middle TN political machine, it won't be nearly as easy to get rid of him as it was Barry and Briley.  Nashville gets to have him for three and  a half more years.  It should be interesting to see how the CofC deals with him. I predict by the end of his term, the CofC will be dealing directly with 2-3 key members of the Metro Council instead of the mayor's office. One of those c.m.'s will be the next mayor.  Would really like to hear @bwithers1 chime in on this topic. 

I wonder if Cooper will change his tune since the Nashville budget this year will be the greatest disaster in the city's history and we'll need our city to rebound. Heck,  they may ask us to take our own trash to the dump.

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by DDIG

[JoeyX]

Tesla is probably not coming also. No way they will be any different than Oracle and Microsoft.

[DDIG]

1 hour ago, JoeyX said:

Tesla is probably not coming also. No way they will be any different than Oracle and Microsoft.

Good thing we won't need jobs coming out of this 

Thank God Cooper wasn't in place to screw up Amazon. He would have.

Edited April 17, 2020 by DDIG

[JoeyX]

He's got an impressive business rejection portfolio.

[japan]

2 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

Backs up what I've heard recently from three different reliable sources: John Cooper scared off Oracle. The lesson there is one every city's mayor ought to know: NEVER EVER do anything to to kill business during your first year in office! First, growth for any city (even boomtowns that have boosters who believe it's invincible) can stop abruptly and all cities experience natural growth cycles caused by variations in the local labor pool and national/global economic conditions. Second, if you're a new mayor you don't want to get a reputation as antibusiness so early in your term, no matter the reasons your supporters sent you to the office. Now Cooper has a bad reputation and the rotten national economy may keep him from being able to change that before he faces reelection. And now he has to raise taxes, which will damage his support among the very (anti-growth) people who sent him there. With the last name of Cooper and a deep-seated member of the Middle TN political machine, it won't be nearly as easy to get rid of him as it was Barry and Briley.  Nashville gets to have him for three and  a half more years.  It should be interesting to see how the CofC deals with him. I predict by the end of his term, the CofC will be dealing directly with 2-3 key members of the Metro Council instead of the mayor's office. One of those c.m.'s will be the next mayor.  Would really like to hear @bwithers1 chime in on this topic. 

I'm sure if he's caught having cemetery sex outside of his marriage we'd be able to get rid of him...

[Bos2Nash]

21 hours ago, VSRJ said:

Do you have links to any of that research? I'm curious in learning more. I know there were some people in China who tested positive after being released from care, but these were thought to have been cases where they were discharged too soon before they truly recovered.

My girlfriend is the one that was sharing of the info with me, but I have been reading that there just isn't enough data on the US cases yet or studies just ahvent been completed due to the ongoing crisis.

Business Insider on a study of Chinese Patients: https://www.businessinsider.com/study-recovered-coronavirus-patients-antibodies-2020-4

The good signs are pointing to a lack of mutations, which is promising. These two appear to be the biggest elements in vaccine effectiveness. 

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19#What-this-means-for-a-vaccine

[downtownresident]

1 hour ago, DDIG said:

Good thing we won't need jobs coming out of this 

Thank God Cooper wasn't in place to screw up Amazon. He would have.

I think Tesla ends up outside of Davidson Co. if they are wanting to build a factory. 

[JoeyX]

14 minutes ago, downtownresident said:

I think Tesla ends up outside of Davidson Co. if they are wanting to build a factory. 

 

At this time however they are in negotiations with the city of Nashville. They'll probably make a decision within the next 12 months. 

[OnePointEast]

Why is anti-intellectualism so rampant in America, even in times of dire crisis like the current pandemic. It's so baffling seeing so many people negate the actual dangers of what the virus can do to anyone.

[MLBrumby]

4 minutes ago, OnePointEast said:

Why is anti-intellectualism so rampant in America, even in times of dire crisis like the current pandemic. It's so baffling seeing so many people negate the actual dangers of what the virus can do to anyone.

Not sure I understand what you mean? And I assure you, whatever you're calling 'anti-intellectualism' is not specific to America, but lots of people who haven't traveled extensively outside the country sort of tend to indict 'their own'. It's human nature. 

[titanhog]

2 hours ago, japan said:

I'm sure if he's caught having cemetery sex outside of his marriage we'd be able to get rid of him...

No...I'm not taking one for the team. 

[ruraljuror]

10 minutes ago, OnePointEast said:

Why is anti-intellectualism so rampant in America, even in times of dire crisis like the current pandemic. It's so baffling seeing so many people negate the actual dangers of what the virus can do to anyone.

To paraphrase the late, great George Carlin: 'Think how stupid the average person is, and then realize that half of us are even stupider than that.'

That said, on one hand it's kind of hard to disparage stupid people for being stupid.  In fact, if one happens to find oneself on the stupid end of the spectrum, then suddenly the act of railing against the 'elites' and eschewing education and the opinions of experts until there is no practical difference between proven facts and uninformed opinions in the public forum is actually...kind of a smart strategy - especially if you're too dumb to realize the long-term consequences that accompany such a strategy on a national/global scale. 

[DDIG]

1 hour ago, OnePointEast said:

Why is anti-intellectualism so rampant in America, even in times of dire crisis like the current pandemic. It's so baffling seeing so many people negate the actual dangers of what the virus can do to anyone.

Well the country is large and nothing you can do to mitigate the fact there will be a lot of dumb people. That being said, I see a lot of evidence by and large the U.S. has taken it seriously and severely mitigated the impact of the virus. The goal was to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the health system. Pretty much everywhere in the U.S. (but New York) was successful in this. 

Now there's a crossroads. Some people want to begin to open things up a little more with precautions in place. Others want to keep everyone at home until a vaccine is in place. I'm of the mindset that no vaccine is guaranteed, and eventually we need to learn to live with this. Masks in public, hygiene, distance from strangers, etc.

Also, anti-intellectualism seems to swing both ways. This subject has become extremely politicized. One side downplays the dangers of the virus, while the other downplays any suggestions that some form of life / economic activity can continue with the virus.

First anti-body studies are coming out of California with suggestion that virus infection rate is 40 to 85 times the amount of positive tests are out there. It hasn't been peer reviewed, but that would suggest a huge amount of those infected are asymptomatic or mild.

[Armacing]

3 hours ago, OnePointEast said:

Why is anti-intellectualism so rampant in America

Hmm, now if we could only think of an example in history where intellectuals and rich people were rounded up and sent to the gulag.... where was that?....

[ruraljuror]

1 hour ago, Armacing said:

Hmm, now if we could only think of an example in history where intellectuals and rich people were rounded up and sent to the gulag.... where was that?....

Sure, good example.

Of course you could've also gone with Socrates, Galileo, Einstein or any number of other intellectuals including most of those who brought about the scientific revolution.  And speaking of revolutions, there's been more than a few of those on the social/political fronts as well - without which we'd probably all still be bowing to one king or another (not to mention the disparate body counts among the revolters and those being revolted against). 

Still, it seems clear to me that intellectuals should be listened to more, and the rich should be taxed more, but we're all in agreement neither group should be jailed/persecuted/murdered. Glad we're on the same page here.

Edited April 17, 2020 by ruraljuror

[titanhog]

1 hour ago, ruraljuror said:

Sure, good example.

Of course you could've also gone with Socrates, Galileo, Einstein or any number of other intellectuals including most of those who brought about the scientific revolution.  And speaking of revolutions, there's been more than a few of those on the social/political fronts as well - without which we'd probably all still be bowing to one king or another (not to mention the disparate body counts among the revolters and those being revolted against). 

Still, it seems clear to me that intellectuals should be listened to more, and the rich should be taxed more, but we're all in agreement neither group should be jailed/persecuted/murdered. Glad we're on the same page here.

The problem is that we have many who believe they're intellectual...and have convinced many they are intellectual...but they're not.  It's not always easy to separate the Socrates...Galileos and Einsteins from the fakes.

[JoeyX]

8 hours ago, OnePointEast said:

Why is anti-intellectualism so rampant in America

 

Ironic to see this asked here since this forum contains so many dumb posts.

Edited April 18, 2020 by JoeyX
Spelling