Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

[OnePointEast]

37 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

The plans should be announced tomorrow, but we don’t know. 

Thanks a lot!

[subkyle]

13 hours ago, OnePointEast said:

My buissness partner is saying he's opening at half capacity next week. Is that allowed? I thought such measures only applied to the surrounding counties and the not the most populous cities. What would happen if he did open up at half capacity before the mayor of Nashville even announces such opening? He seems to be either ignoring the mayor's orders and following what the governor says or he's just outright confused, maybe.

I’m in the restaurant business and I’m putting out 50 percent of my seating in all my small town stores, but I’m not in my Davidson county stores. I am under the impression that Nashville restaurants will get the green light once certain metrics are met and phase 1 of reopening starts. Although phase 1 highly restricts store capacities and social distancing. I highly recommend you not open your dine in too early. You could get fined and potentially receive negative media on the business. Good luck!

[Nash_12South]

Front page story in the Tennessean this morning on the reopening of the state with the angle that Nashville isn't reopening (yet) and how it could hurt local businesses if customers start going to our surrounding counties for services and to shop. Gyms were discussed as, according to Cooper's plan, they wouldn't reopen until Phase 3, which at best is June. They open Wednesday in most other counties. 

It would be interesting to see the extent of negative media on businesses that try to reopen early in Nashville. I think there is a quiet momentum (maybe not so quiet) building to get things moving again, or at least to test the waters. I'll pass on stories of two friends. A 55 year old female coworker, who has needed a pep talk before every trip to the grocery, but by Friday was heading to her salon for a cut and color. Yes, it was quietly operating underground. Another friend who was touting on Facebook last week the idiocy of reopening too soon and a fear of going out, early last week, but last night, invited us over for dinner this upcoming Friday night. I kept asking "are you really serious??" Yes, we will probably go. Given the conditions he was laying out, I'm not sure if we're actually not eating in the neighbor's yard.....

 

Edited April 27, 2020 by Nash_12South

[Nash_12South]

11 hours ago, OnePointEast said:

Ok. Thanks. Was just making sure he wasn't getting ahead of himself. So plans for Nashville will be announced tomorrow?

Restaurant industry. 

 

Edited April 27, 2020 by Nash_12South

[smeagolsfree]

This is just a guess, but based on what I am seeing in other parts of the world, this is going to be a miserable failure and we will be hit with a second wave of cases. However, if everyone wants to take the chance and reopen and take the chance at getting sick then I say more power to you. 

The administration said 60K deaths after they revised the number down and we are already almost at that now. We will be close to 100K deaths by the end of next month IMO, or the middle of June and if we have a second wave then the original numbers of 200K to 240K numbers may be realized by the end of the year very easily. I have been watching this since almost the day it hit the media in early January and really watching it hard since mid January. Those that say this is no worse than the flu are simply stupid as the flu does not kill 60K in two months nor does it sill that many in a year as about 36K die in a year in the US from the flu. Those numbers are still out there and people are still believing they are true. All I ask is that you check the facts and the numbers yourselves before reacting and educate yourselves before making blanket statements

Granted one of the ways to slow it is to continue to social distance and wear mask, but there are going to be tons of idiots that will not do that because its still a hoax to them or think they will not get it. 

[Nash_12South]

The Monday Metro virus briefing is saying that there is still no date to reopen Nashville, beyond early May.

We can stay home, and shut down, until we have a vaccine and have all taken it, in 12-18 months, best case.  I do not see this happening. There is no opening scheme, prior to next year, that doesn't involve new cases and deaths. I've asked before - if not now - when? What metrics are acceptable? What changes between opening May 1 or July 1 beyond people being more frustrated and poorer?

The news is great at telling how horrific reopening too soon will be in one segment and in the next segment telling us we are headed to economic ruin the longer this lasts. I've about given up watching any of it. 

[DDIG]

53 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

The Monday Metro virus briefing is saying that there is still no date to reopen Nashville, beyond early May.

We can stay home, and shut down, until we have a vaccine and have all taken it, in 12-18 months, best case.  I do not see this happening. There is no opening scheme, prior to next year, that doesn't involve new cases and deaths. I've asked before - if not now - when? What metrics are acceptable? What changes between opening May 1 or July 1 beyond people being more frustrated and poorer?

The news is great at telling how horrific reopening too soon will be in one segment and in the next segment telling us we are headed to economic ruin the longer this lasts. I've about given up watching any of it. 

So true on the news. Zero contextualization. Every report. OMG THERE ARE 100 NEW CASES. Then people asking OMG how can we open when there are 100 new cases? People have completely had their brains wired wrong on this and it is hard to pull out of at this point.

[titanhog]

2 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

This is just a guess, but based on what I am seeing in other parts of the world, this is going to be a miserable failure and we will be hit with a second wave of cases. However, if everyone wants to take the chance and reopen and take the chance at getting sick then I say more power to you. 

The administration said 60K deaths after they revised the number down and we are already almost at that now. We will be close to 100K deaths by the end of next month IMO, or the middle of June and if we have a second wave then the original numbers of 200K to 240K numbers may be realized by the end of the year very easily. I have been watching this since almost the day it hit the media in early January and really watching it hard since mid January. Those that say this is no worse than the flu are simply stupid as the flu does not kill 60K in two months nor does it sill that many in a year as about 36K die in a year in the US from the flu. Those numbers are still out there and people are still believing they are true. All I ask is that you check the facts and the numbers yourselves before reacting and educate yourselves before making blanket statements

Granted one of the ways to slow it is to continue to social distance and wear mask, but there are going to be tons of idiots that will not do that because its still a hoax to them or think they will not get it. 

The part that is scariest about this virus is that it appears a huge percentage of those infected are asymptomatic...so they have no clue they are infected.  That means many of them will go out without a mask, thinking there's no way they can infect anyone because they don't know they are carriers.  Plus...you can have this for up to 14 days before having symptoms.

The only way to work and at least provide a little protection is for everyone to wear a mask and for everyone to wash their hands frequently...but I don't see that happening.  

I guess local governments are going to have to keep a close eye on hospital loads.  We actually have a need for more "healthy" people to get the virus and build antibodies...but that's a very risky proposition.  Not something to mess with.

[smeagolsfree]

Unfortunately, a lot of these folks are not thinking about other family members that could get sick, but what will be will be. I do realize that the economy has to start functioning at some point very soon. The economy will not be functioning the same way it did before this happened and anyone that thinks it will all be back to normal the way it was before in two months is dillusional. That is not going to happen. I doubt things will not be the same as  it was for several years. Two minimum. 

For folks that are very susceptible to this should just continue to do what they are doing. I just hope they keep the extended hours for the seniors and others with immunocompromised systems available. People will have to take precautions for a long time or until there is an effective vaccine and we know for sure you can't get it a second time.

[DDIG]

1 hour ago, smeagolsfree said:

Unfortunately, a lot of these folks are not thinking about other family members that could get sick, but what will be will be. I do realize that the economy has to start functioning at some point very soon. The economy will not be functioning the same way it did before this happened and anyone that thinks it will all be back to normal the way it was before in two months is dillusional. That is not going to happen. I doubt things will not be the same as  it was for several years. Two minimum. 

For folks that are very susceptible to this should just contcontinue to do what they are doing. I just hope they keep the extended hours for the seniors and others with immunocompromised systems available. People will have to take precautions for a long time or until there is an effective vaccine and we know for sure you can't get it a second time.

What exactly does a second wave in Nashville look like though?

Our city's hospitalizations and deaths are probably among the lowest in the country per capita. Most Nashvillians still live in single family homes, and barely any of us ride public transportation. I think I've linked a study in here before out of 7,000 cases reviewed in China, only two were contracted outside - and the vast majority were in the home and public transportation transmissions. 

With economy opening with people being smart about hygiene and distancing, I'm skeptical it ever can get too bad here (certainly recognizing that any death is a tragedy). 

Edited April 27, 2020 by DDIG

[smeagolsfree]

It is hard to say at this moment. When I say second wave I am talking more about the nation, but it could hit some of the areas that were not hit hard the first time harder that the were the first time. It depends on how stupid people are and how good the contact tracing is. It may be worse in the rural areas than t is in the urban areas. When I say rural, I mean the smaller cities where a lot of folks say this isn't NYC or Italy. If folks start to ignore the common sense guidelines set in place, there will be problems.

As for influenza in the fall, I am not so sure there will be as much flu as they say because of better hygiene and social distancing that will still probably be in place. There is one place I think the health officials may have it wrong. people will not be traveling nearly as much especially internationally and thus cutting the chances of flu cases down even more.

 

[Jarno]

48 minutes ago, DDIG said:

What exactly does a second wave in Nashville look like though?

Our city's hospitalizations and deaths are probably among the lowest in the country per capita. Most Nashvillians still live in single family homes, and barely any of us ride public transportation. I think I've linked a study in here before out of 7,000 cases reviewed in China, only two were contracted outside - and the vast majority were in the home and public transportation transmissions. 

With economy opening with people being smart about hygiene and distancing, I'm skeptical it ever can get too bad here (certainly recognizing that any death is a tragedy). 

Exactly, 22 total deaths in a couple months for Nashville and none in the last 6 days.    One is too many, but 12 people have committed suicide in Know county alone during the Covid-19 scare.  Our suicide deaths over the next 12 months due to financial disaster and isolation are going to be staggering compared to Covid-19 (and will go unmentioned in most cases).   The crazy thing is a lot of the people hurting the worst are laid off hospital workers having to watch how overwhelmed the hospitals are while they are at home on unemployment.  Didn't mean to rant, but not a single person has to go outside or especially to a restaurant unless they want to go.  

[DDIG]

6 minutes ago, smeagolsfree said:

It is hard to say at this moment. When I say second wave I am talking more about the nation, but it could hit some of the areas that were not hit hard the first time harder that the were the first time. It depends on how stupid people are and how good the contact tracing is. It may be worse in the rural areas than t is in the urban areas. When I say rural, I mean the smaller cities where a lot of folks say this isn't NYC or Italy. If folks start to ignore the common sense guidelines set in place, there will be problems.

As for influenza in the fall, I am not so sure there will be as much flu as they say because of better hygiene and social distancing that will still probably be in place. There is one place I think the health officials may have it wrong. people will not be traveling nearly as much especially internationally and thus cutting the chances of flu cases down even more.

 

Definitely agree with your travel predication. We're atleast a year away from people being confident in travelling anywhere long-distance. 

But on the flipside, if you want to go on your dream vacation for pennies, 2021 is your time to shine!

[Nash_12South]

As pro as I am to try/start reopening, we've given up on any plans to vacation travel on a plane this year. That cancels two trips. Bummed but realistic. I love my spouse, but I never planned this on much togetherness, until I retired......

[Armacing]

3 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

 anyone that thinks it will all be back to normal the way it was before in two months is dillusional.

Agreed.  Whether you call it a new culture of health awareness, mass hysteria, paranoia, herd mentality, PTSD, or whatever - this is a large-scale shift in human behavior patterns that will have long-lasting economic implications. 

3 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

As pro as I am to try/start reopening, we've given up on any plans to vacation travel on a plane this year. That cancels two trips. Bummed but realistic. I love my spouse, but I never planned this on much togetherness, until I retired...…

Yeah, we cancelled our air travel plans as well.  Planning to do a few day trips locally to avoid hotel stays, and we will take a picnic lunch to avoid restaurants.

[MLBrumby]

39 minutes ago, Armacing said:

Agreed.  Whether you call it a new culture of health awareness, mass hysteria, paranoia, herd mentality, PTSD, or whatever - this is a large-scale shift in human behavior patterns that will have long-lasting economic implications. 

Yeah, we cancelled our air travel plans as well.  Planning to do a few day trips locally to avoid hotel stays, and we will take a picnic lunch to avoid restaurants.

That may actually inure to Nashville's benefit as it's so close (1/2 day by car) to so many other cities. 

[smeagolsfree]

Maybe yes and no. I have cancelled all of my travel plans for the foreseeable future.  That includes driving anywhere. I just can't take the chance with my age and health.

Another problem right now is that the live entertainment in the bars may not come back for a while. This stuff may be with us for a while and so many people are looking short term that this reopening is just going to be the start and then back to normal. I don't think that is going to happen.  My feeling is we are going to have some major set backs.

[UTgrad09]

I'm scheduled to fly to California in early June. I'll let you know how that works out.

[KJHburg]

This is a study done by a Charlotte based marketing firm about travel plans for Americans.  It shows most 68% would drive to a summer destination but much less would fly this summer.  

https://www.yellowduckmarketing.com/2020-covid-us-travel-survey/

This bodes well for parks, beaches and mountains however not sure how people would feel about crowding in bars and group tours like many do in downtown Nashville that remains to be seen.  

Edited April 28, 2020 by KJHburg

[DDIG]

1 hour ago, smeagolsfree said:

Maybe yes and no. I have cancelled all of my travel plans for the foreseeable future.  That includes driving anywhere. I just can't take the chance with my age and health.

Another problem right now is that the live entertainment in the bars may not come back for a while. This stuff may be with us for a while and so many people are looking short term that this reopening is just going to be the start and then back to normal. I don't think that is going to happen.  My feeling is we are going to have some major set backs.

I think the bars will get back to it a little sooner than you'd guess. The numbers coming out and this virus is more or less a non-issue under 65. Over 65 it can be hell on wheels. When bars open, people who are not vulnerable will dip their toes in the water for a week or two before going screw it, I'm back in.

[MLBrumby]

The bars will be fine. They'll limit the number inside per "guidelines". People will stay longer because of it. Several bars/establishments off Broadway may do better than ever. Bluegrass Inn might be turning people away every night. They'll probably tell people to get their drinks at a certain place... they'll have limited contact with the servers.  Looking at the Catbird Seat, didn't the Goldbergs show us how this should be done. They'll double the price and seat half the number of people... straight from chef to plate and they're going to clean up. 

Folks, I've already seen ample evidence that people are adapting to this virus. I've been in stores for the past couple of weeks and people are wearing masks and being very careful. Yep, I've run into people who flout the warnings, but I can't do a damn thing about them. I wear my mask and think they should too, but I'll just step out of their way (for now). 

Edited April 28, 2020 by MLBrumby

[downtownresident]

1 hour ago, KJHburg said:

This is a study done by a Charlotte based marketing firm about travel plans for Americans.  It shows most 68% would drive to a summer destination but much less would fly this summer.  

https://www.yellowduckmarketing.com/2020-covid-us-travel-survey/

This bodes well for parks, beaches and mountains however not sure how people would feel about crowding in bars and group tours like many do in downtown Nashville that remains to be seen.  

That honestly bodes fairly well for Nashville, as we are within driving distance of a large portion of the US population. 

Edited April 28, 2020 by downtownresident

[Nash_12South]

It will be interesting to see how wisely Nashville's Broadway bars approach reopening. Only if reopening in Nashville and TN goes smoothly do I see these bars reopening before July. Tourism folks will be loath to see images of packed (or even semi-packed) Nashville bars while hundreds a day are still dying from the virus. You'd think they are working on scenarios of limiting crowds, but that will mean more security and cleaning staff while generating less money. We really need 5th & Broad to open up and generate some interest in coming to visit without the intense bar scene. The next 2-3 weeks will be a huge test as states open up. Will we see the predicted cataclysmic rise in cases or not?

[markhollin]

Nashville-based Webb Diagnostic Technologies has developed an antibody test its officials say can detect the presence of COVID-19 in a person with up to 99 percent accuracy in under one minute — a potential stand-out product in a market currently thwarted by unreliable technology and fraud. 

More at Nashville Post here:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/health-care/article/21130608/nashville-brings-antibody-test-to-market

[Jarno]

39 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

It will be interesting to see how wisely Nashville's Broadway bars approach reopening. Only if reopening in Nashville and TN goes smoothly do I see these bars reopening before July. Tourism folks will be loath to see images of packed (or even semi-packed) Nashville bars while hundreds a day are still dying from the virus. You'd think they are working on scenarios of limiting crowds, but that will mean more security and cleaning staff while generating less money. We really need 5th & Broad to open up and generate some interest in coming to visit without the intense bar scene. The next 2-3 weeks will be a huge test as states open up. Will we see the predicted cataclysmic rise in cases or not?

I think you will see a rise in cases whether anything opens or not due to the fact so many more people are being tested (including more of those that are not necessarily front line doctors, nurses and people showing symptoms).  With each test they are learning the death and hospitalization percentages go down because more people are carrying the virus than thought.  The concern would then be, do the death and hospitalization rates start to spike.  (Whether they do spike or not, I  would still hope people with underlying conditions and elderly continue to self quarantine when possible a little longer).