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Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

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On ‎5‎/‎13‎/‎2020 at 2:28 PM, smeagolsfree said:

OUCH!!!!

 

Nashville suffers worst consumer spending drop in the nation

 

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/05/13/nashville-suffers-worst-consumer-spending-drop-in.html

Nashville has endured the steepest drop in consumer spending of any major metro area in the U.S. during the Covid-19 crisis, according to a new data tracker developed at Harvard University.

As of April 30, that spending had fallen 46% in the Nashville metro area when compared with mid-January, when the first U.S. coronavirus case was confirmed.

After digging around in the data more, I think we can probably draw a few conclusions from this.  The headline says "Nashville Metro" but the data is listed at the county level, and only Davidson had the 46% drop.  Too bad it doesn't have Williamson.  But it does have Rutherford and Wilson and the drop wasn't as severe.  Here are the two conclusions that I came up with:

1) Compared to other cities, Nashville has a disproportionate share of economic activity focused on industries that rely on highly discretionary spending.  We can explore what the words "highly discretionary mean", but I'm basically saying that a larger-than-average  share of Nashville economic activity falls in the category of "nice-to-have" rather than "must-have" for consumers.

2) The fact that Nashville/Davidson  is ringed by relatively affluent suburban counties may give those consumers the ability to satisfy all of their near-term and medium-term needs by patronizing local businesses and using online delivery for things that are not local.  Contrast this to Shelby or Knox or Hamilton where the main retail centers are still in the county.  Indeed, if you drill to the county-level detail, this trend is reflected. 

It will be interesting to see if large numbers of Williamson/Rutherford/Wilson county residents come to view Davidson as "plague-central" and simply avoid it in favor of their local businesses.  Williamson county seems to be particularly capable of saying "no thanks" to Davidson county.  Check out this map:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States#/media/File:Per_capita_income_by_county.png

 

 

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52 minutes ago, Armacing said:

After digging around in the data more, I think we can probably draw a few conclusions from this.  The headline says "Nashville Metro" but the data is listed at the county level, and only Davidson had the 46% drop.  Too bad it doesn't have Williamson.  But it does have Rutherford and Wilson and the drop wasn't as severe.  Here are the two conclusions that I came up with:

1) Compared to other cities, Nashville has a disproportionate share of economic activity focused on industries that rely on highly discretionary spending.  We can explore what the words "highly discretionary mean", but I'm basically saying that a larger-than-average  share of Nashville economic activity falls in the category of "nice-to-have" rather than "must-have" for consumers.

2) The fact that Nashville/Davidson  is ringed by relatively affluent suburban counties may give those consumers the ability to satisfy all of their near-term and medium-term needs by patronizing local businesses and using online delivery for things that are not local.  Contrast this to Shelby or Knox or Hamilton where the main retail centers are still in the county.  Indeed, if you drill to the county-level detail, this trend is reflected. 

It will be interesting to see if large numbers of Williamson/Rutherford/Wilson county residents come to view Davidson as "plague-central" and simply avoid it in favor of their local businesses.  Williamson county seems to be particularly capable of saying "no thanks" to Davidson county.  Check out this map:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States#/media/File:Per_capita_income_by_county.png

 

 

Compounding all of this is the tornado that tore through some major tourist areas in Davidson Co in March. 

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55 minutes ago, downtownresident said:

Compounding all of this is the tornado that tore through some major tourist areas in Davidson Co in March. 

The Davidson County data actually goes all the way back to Jan 24th.  As bad as the tornado was for certain neighborhoods, it looks like the economic impact was small enought to be completely lost in the macro-level economic data for the whole county.  I would say 99% of the decline can be attributed to the virus when discussing the whole county.

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The Visit Music City folks are putting on the July the 4th Fireworks, to honor our frontline workers......Riverfront Park will he closed to prevent crowds from forming....I truly cannot believe it.....I’m all for reopening, but this has seriously bad PR written all over it...

I can just see local nurses and doctors on TV shaking their heads.....

Edited by Nash_12South

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1 hour ago, Nash_12South said:

The Visit Music City folks are putting on the July the 4th Fireworks, to honor our frontline workers......Riverfront Park will he closed to prevent crowds from forming....I truly cannot believe it.....I’m all for reopening, but this has seriously bad PR written all over it...

I can just see local nurses and doctors on TV shaking their heads.....

I just read a story on Tennessean’s website that indicates the July 4th “event” is only a television special. No big downtown event or concert for this year’s celebration. There will be fireworks to recorded music, but spectators will not be allowed in city parks.

 

Edited by donNdonelson2

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36 minutes ago, donNdonelson2 said:

I just read a story on Tennessean’s website that indicates the July 4th “event” is only a television special. No big downtown event or concert for this year’s celebration. There will be fireworks to recorded music, but spectators will not be allowed in city parks.

How do they keep folks off the streets? Are they closing all the likely reopened restaurants and bars? After being locked up all these months I see a lot of folks, especially from outside Nashville, heading downtown. I’m not against the event as much as seeing the optics as potentially bad for the city. 

 

Edited by Nash_12South

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54 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

Nashville goes to Phase 2 on Monday, May 25th. 75% at restaurants. Gyms & salons reopen, with lots of rules. Playgrounds at parks reopen. 

Good news. The data everywhere supports this.

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I have also seen polls that up to 65% of folks are going to wait on a vaccine before venturing out, so can the economy survive on the other 35%.  BYW, count me in the 65% as I have health concerns and I know a lot of others I have talked to that just are not going to go to a restaurant, bar, gym, coffee shop, or anywhere else that puts us around a bunch or irresponsible, narcissistic people.

I continue to shop for groceries by calling and doing pick up or going during the special hours set aside. If I do go into a store it is early in the morning with a mask. Granted there will be folks that will do what they want, but this is not over by a long shot.

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19 minutes ago, smeagolsfree said:

I have also seen polls that up to 65% of folks are going to wait on a vaccine before venturing out, so can the economy survive on the other 35%.  BYW, count me in the 65% as I have health concerns and I know a lot of others I have talked to that just are not going to go to a restaurant, bar, gym, coffee shop, or anywhere else that puts us around a bunch or irresponsible, narcissistic people.

Ron, didn’t you just make a long post about not using this board to insult others who hold beliefs/views different from your own?

—An “irresponsible, narcissistic person” who in good faith believes that we need to re-open the economy and can do so safely while high-risk individuals continue to self-quarantine if they choose. 

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I'm sure a lot of folks will wait a while before venturing out, but two spots in 12 South, Edley's and Urban Grub, are having no trouble filling seats, limited thought they may be. I was at Urban Grub last night and saw all ages and no one entered, except us, wearing masks. The staff was super careful, but our server was pretty clear the staff was tired of masks and gloves already - while grateful to be working. I think many folks will eagerly get back to their old ways especially if the counts stay relatively stable. 

Edited by Nash_12South

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2 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

I have also seen polls that up to 65% of folks are going to wait on a vaccine before venturing out, so can the economy survive on the other 35%.  BYW, count me in the 65% as I have health concerns and I know a lot of others I have talked to that just are not going to go to a restaurant, bar, gym, coffee shop, or anywhere else that puts us around a bunch or irresponsible, narcissistic people.

I continue to shop for groceries by calling and doing pick up or going during the special hours set aside. If I do go into a store it is early in the morning with a mask. Granted there will be folks that will do what they want, but this is not over by a long shot.

Ron, if you have others to feed, then going to Costco may make sense for  you and your family. They won't allow anyone inside without a mask. And they're fastidious about cart cleaning. That's why I go there for frozen foods, meats and wines.  I also like the wide aisles. 

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2 hours ago, fishsticks176 said:

Ron, didn’t you just make a long post about not using this board to insult others who hold beliefs/views different from your own?

—An “irresponsible, narcissistic person” who in good faith believes that we need to re-open the economy and can do so safely while high-risk individuals continue to self-quarantine if they choose. 

I don't think Ron was aiming "irresponsible, narcissistic person" at anyone on the board, but rather people who don't wear masks, don't maintain a minimum of six-feet between them and others, etc., etc. But he can speak for himself

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There's reports (particularly out of China recently) showing lots of mutated strains.   So a single vaccine is unlikely to be effective. 

The take away is that policies need to start coming to the realization that a 'big pharma' solution may not come any time soon, so holding back economic activity in the name of safety has diminishing returns. 

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17 hours ago, fishsticks176 said:

Ron, didn’t you just make a long post about not using this board to insult others who hold beliefs/views different from your own?

—An “irresponsible, narcissistic person” who in good faith believes that we need to re-open the economy and can do so safely while high-risk individuals continue to self-quarantine if they choose. 

Not insulting anyone except stupid people. It is a fact that there are Irresponsible, narcissistic people who have no regard for the health of others. I did not call out any individual group.  It is the same group that will not wear mask into a building when required to do so. It is the same as wearing shoes and shirts in a business, the owner has the right to refuse service to that individual and thus is his or her right under the law. If someone does not like that they can't complain that their rights are violated because they do not want to wear a mask into a business. No shoes, shirts, mask... no service. It is a matter of todays society that there are many folks who have no regard for anyone other than themselves. This transcends political parties, religion, age, race, socioeconomic background. It is from every group. This is a stupid human factor! There are Stupid People everywhere and you can't fix stupid.

Many of these folks are not dealing in good faith. They are being obstinate saying you can't tell me what to do. You have folks shooting security guards for not letting folks into stores for not wearing mask, protesting outside businesses for the same reason. These will be some of the same folks that will be saying you can't infringe on my rights when in fact they infringe on the rights of others. These are people that do not listen to the facts, people that do not want to listen to the facts, people that are just too stupid to understand the facts.

These are the same people that cannot be reasoned with no matter what kind of evidence you put in front of then because they do not care about anyone but themselves and have no regard for the anything but their own little world and when that is disrupted they just do not know how to cope with reality but to lash out at others with hate, violence, and acting out like 5 year old children. They are on both sides of the political spectrum and every color under the sun.

16 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

Ron, if you have others to feed, then going to Costco may make sense for  you and your family. They won't allow anyone inside without a mask. And they're fastidious about cart cleaning. That's why I go there for frozen foods, meats and wines.  I also like the wide aisles. 

I went to Costco last week during the special hours with a mask on and got the heck out of there ASAP. I like Costco. There are some decent places to go. Costco is a once in a three month run for me, but I forgot the wine. I need to make a run to Midtown Liquors. I buy by the case there too.  

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Leaders are bullish on return of tourism and entertainment business. More at The Nashville Post here:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/tourism/article/21134547/leaders-bullish-on-return-of-tourism-entertainment-business

Also:

Thanks to Covid-19, the Greater Nashville metro area will suffer a net loss of 27,000 jobs this year and take a $2.3 billion hit to its projected GDP, according to forecasts by the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce.

Unsurprisingly, it's not a pretty picture for 2020 — and that's assuming there isn't a resurgence or spike of new Covid-19 infections as Nashville eases public health restrictions. The chamber's projections suggest coronavirus will throw quite a counterpunch to a region that, for the past eight years in a row, ranked among the 10 U.S. metros with the strongest rates of job growth.

Seen another way, though, chamber officials say their forecast shows an economy poised to quickly rebound, faster than the nation. The net job loss expected this year equals just 2.6% of the labor force. The GDP hit is the equivalent of half the growth seen from 2017 and 2018, the most recent year of data available.

More behind the NBJ paywall here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/05/21/nashville-chamber-economic-recovery-forecast-covid.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

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2 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

Midtown Liquors

Are the employees there wearing face masks?  Because they aren't (not all of them) at Sinkers in Inglewood.

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Just now, Rockatansky said:

Are the employees there wearing face masks?  Because they aren't (not all of them) at Sinkers in Inglewood.

I have not been there since the lockdown. But they do offer online ordering and curbside P/U.

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I have done a few curbside pickups at Home Depot lately, once on a Saturday and once during the week.  I am amazed at the number of people not wearing masks, both employee and patrons.  I am also sure that you couldn't social distance in the store based on the number of cars in the lot and people entering the store.  It is a little disheartening to see people not even make an effort to wear a mask.  There were parents there and the kids had masks on but the parents didn't.  I applaud Costco for taking a stand.  Wearing a mask is a small gesture of kindness to your fellow citizens, plus if 80% of us wear a mask the maybe we could avoid a lockdown in the winter phase.

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4 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

I have not been there since the lockdown. But they do offer online ordering and curbside P/U.

They are wearing masks. I’ve been there a few times since the lockdown. 

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Not to be a downer, but most folks I’m seeing out, now, are not wearing masks, grocery, liquor store, eating out, the mall, on walks.... I wouldn’t expect a change as long as businesses do little in the way of enforcement. 

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Ventured to the  Mall at Green Hills this afternoon. A bare majority of stores are opened, though there are still some larger ones (Apple, Gap, Banana R.) still closed. Some require a bit of a check in or a walk past an employee or two to enter. 3/4 of shoppers in masks (we did), 1/4 not. I was surprised at the number of over 60 folks without masks. We only ventured into two stores, one, Nordstrom, had removed about a third of the clothing racks in the men’s department creating a very weirdly spacious layout. I would guess at about a third the number of overall shoppers I’d expect to see in the mall. It was very easy to avoid folks. 

Edited by Nash_12South

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