Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

[Jarno]

On 4/30/2020 at 10:03 AM, ruraljuror said:

I probably should have been more clear in my last post: To flatten the curve essentially 'means' to buy time.  Flattening the curve is just a statistical concept that makes no claims about virus eradication, for example.  In fact, if the x-axis plots time, then a flatter curve by implication is probably going to have wider upward and downward sloping tails and will therefore take longer than a sharp rise/decent. In the context of the pandemic, it just means taking measures to make the infection/death growth rates grow more slowly, essentially turning a steep mountain peak into a wider, rolling hill (or more likely, hills).

That said, I can understand your confusion given the fair amount of conflicting information that was being passed around in February and early March (which seems like a lifetime ago).  Hell, back then even the president was pushing the idea that cases 'would soon be zero' - which ultimately may not even be an incorrect statement depending on how one defines 'soon'...

All that to say, most of the credible information I was seeing in the lead up to the lock down gave no indication that the process of flattening the curve was going to be over very quickly.  There was a lot of talk about how it would take 2 weeks to see if our measures to flatten the curve were even working, but there was no indication that even a successful flattening of the curve would mean that we would then get to immediately return to some semblance of our normal lives.  In fact, most of what I was reading/hearing at the time led me to believe that our lockdown measures likely wouldn't be sufficient, and we could expect to see increasingly severe lockdown rules implemented about every two weeks for a while to come thereafter.  Obviously that hasn't happened, of course, (thankfully, I guess) and couldn't really happen in an environment where we lack adequate testing to truly know the degree to which we've effectively flattened the curve thus far.  Without those tests, we're all still just playing a guessing game, which ties one hand behind the back of those promoting quantitative assessments and solutions to the pandemic, which (not coincidentally) is an advantage to those who would like to push agendas and 'solutions' that conflict with the cold hard math.  That dynamic alone probably accounts for a significant amount of the public's misunderstanding of the situation.

All that to say, who was it that 'sold' you and the American people the idea that flattening the curve would be a quick process? I'm genuinely curious. In any case, whether it was politicians, particular media outlets, or friends/family/neighbors that planted that seed in your brain, I recommend finding other supplementary sources when seeking pandemic info going forward, because it seems like you're right that you  were sold a bad bill of goods. 

 

 

On 6/6/2020 at 3:58 PM, titanhog said:

Keeping a close eye on the Covid infections, hospitalizations and deaths in TN to see where the trend is headed.

This week:  3,435 new infected...183 new hospitalizations...48 deaths

Last week: 2,691...150...45

2 weeks ago: 2,424...106...25

3 weeks ago: 2.529...155...49

4 weeks ago: 2,550...186...37

5 weeks ago: 3,165...305...36

6 weeks ago: 2,137...97...26

7 weeks ago: 1,727...175...44

Looks like the last two weeks have seen a trend toward more infections, hospitalizations and deaths.  NOT a good trend.

Last 4 weeks vs. previous 4 week:

L4: 11,079 infections...594 hospitalizations...167 deaths

P4: 9,579 infections...763 hospitalizations...143 deaths

The good number is that hospitalizations have gone down over the past 4 weeks...so we're not screwed yet...but those number the last 2 weeks need to stabilize quickly or those hospitalizations will keep going northward.

 

On 6/7/2020 at 12:50 PM, titanhog said:

The "spike" has been the last two weeks.  It's something you don't want to see going into the summer when most viruses tend to "bake" off with more people spending time outdoors, which tends to help lessen a virus' effect on a population (normally what seems to happen with a virus).  Up until these last 2 weeks...everything was looking really good and trending the right way.

So...it's just something to keep an eye on.  If we get even more hospitalizations and deaths next week (the 2 numbers that really matter)...then that would be 3 weeks in a row of increases.  We'll see what happens.  The numbers will tell the story.

When you look at these numbers compared to the state population there is really not any significant difference in any of the weeks.  First of all, I don't consider cases to be relevant because more people are tested each week.  Also, so many new case are asymptomatic and new evidence is starting to say they may not even be able to spread the virus.  I also don't put much faith in death totals either, because that is a doctors opinion.   Did they die of kidney failure they have had for years or covid for example? Plus, remember, the average covid death age is still north of 70 last I saw or basically at life expectancy.  (Not saying I can determine it either, but that number fluctuates a lot).   So I say that to say this.  The difference in hospitalizations between the best and worst week on the graph would be .0000126% of the population.  I'm not sure any type of lock down or preventing people from going out in the sunshine could possible affect a number that small.  I mean 183 hospitalizations vs 97 in the best week spread over 95 counties and 6,829,000 people in the state is less than a rounding error.  I just hate to see us get caught fearing micro fractions when other states are back in business and booming.  Just rented our condo in Florida for next month since they were going fast and all my friends have said it is wide open and the same as always down there.  I also came downtown on Monday afternoon and Nashville looked like a ghost town.  1 for 1 ratio of homeless and tourist. Plus we extended the level two phase long enough that people have made their summer plans.  Nashville is toast for this summer and we will be for the fall as well if we can't reassure the people spending their money we are open.

Edited June 11, 2020 by Jarno

[Nash_12South]

Tomorrow could be interesting as Thursdays have been the day moving to the next phase is announced, or not. It would be nice if the local press pushed a little on why we are dragging out phase two especially in context with out surrounding counties being so open. Our rise in cases is tied to our neighboring counties. Expecting level case numbers is not a not really realistic.

Edited June 10, 2020 by Nash_12South

[ruraljuror]

4 hours ago, Jarno said:

When you look at these numbers compared to the state population there is really not any significant difference in any of the weeks.  First of all, I don't consider cases to be relevant because more people are tested each week.  Also, so many new case are asymptomatic and new evidence is starting to say they may not even be able to spread the virus.  I also don't put much faith in death totals either, because that is a doctors opinion.   Did they die of kidney failure they have had for years or covid for example? Plus, remember, the average covid death age is still north of 70 last I saw or basically at life expectancy.  (Not saying I can determine it either, but that number fluctuates a lot).   So I say that to say this.  The difference in hospitalizations between the best and worst week on the graph would be .0000126% of the population.  I'm not sure any type of lock down or preventing people from going out in the sunshine could possible affect a number that small.  I mean 183 hospitalizations vs 97 in the best week spread over 95 counties and 6,829,000 people in the state is less than a rounding area.  I just hate to see us get caught fearing micro fractions when other states are back in business and booming.  Just rented our condo in Florida for next month since they were going fast and all my friends have said it is wide open and the same as always down there.  I also came downtown on Monday afternoon and Nashville looked like a ghost town.  1 for 1 ratio of homeless and tourist. Plus we extended the level two phase long enough that people have made their summer plans.  Nashville is toast for this summer and we will be for the fall as well if we can't reassure the people spending their money we are open.

I hope you're right Jarno. 

That said, I don't think using the total population of Tennessee in the denominator of your calculations is the most informative way to go about this. 

If you're looking at hospitalizations (which I agree is a better metric than cases) then what we really ought to be focusing on is the number of available hospital beds in Tennessee, not the total number of people.  As it happens, there are apparently 24,700 hospital beds in our state, about 50% of which are normally occupied at any given time, which leaves us with about 12,350 beds of 'flex space' for COVID. 

According to Titanhog's numbers, hospitalizations rose by about 40% between two weeks ago and last week. That's a pretty steep incline, of course, and very likely an outlier, but assuming that every single newly hospitalized  COVID case is either released from the hospital or dead within 3 weeks of their hospitalization (because a bed opens up either way unfortunately) then we'll be 30% over our hospital bed capacity by the beginning of October. 

Assuming that the rate of hospitalization increases by only 30% instead of 40%, then it'll take about 4 months for us to exceed our hospital capacity. If the rate of increase is only 20%, then it'll take 5 and half months to exceed our bed capacity. If the rate increases by only 10% then it'll take 6 and half months....

More concerning of course, is that we only have about 600 ventilators in Tennessee, and as of a month or so ago, it was being reported that about half of hospitalized COVID patients need a ventilator at some point during their hospital stay. In this scenario, if the hospitalization growth rate increases by 10%, then we'll be short on ventilators in about 3 and half months.

All that to say, I have no idea what kind of growth rates we're going to see in reality here- maybe it'll end up averaging .005% or something entirely manageable.  I certainly hope so. 

 

Edited June 10, 2020 by ruraljuror

[DDIG]

13 minutes ago, ruraljuror said:

I hope you're right Jarno. 

That said, I don't think using the total population of Tennessee in the denominator of your calculations is the most informative way to go about this. 

If you're looking at hospitalizations (which I agree is a better metric than cases) then what we really ought to be focusing on is the number of available hospital beds in Tennessee, not the total number of people.  As it happens, there are apparently 24,700 hospital beds in our state, about 50% of which are normally occupied at any given time, which leaves us with about 12,350 beds of 'flex space' for COVID. 

According to Titanhog's numbers, hospitalizations rose by about 40% between two weeks ago and last week. That's a pretty steep incline, of course, and very likely an outlier, but assuming that every single newly hospitalized  COVID case is either released from the hospital or dead within 3 weeks of their hospitalization (because a bed opens up either way unfortunately) then we'll be 30% over our hospital bed capacity by the beginning of October. 

Assuming that the rate of hospitalization increases by only 30% instead of 40%, then it'll take about 4 months for us to exceed our hospital capacity. If the rate of increase is only 20%, then it'll take 5 and half months to exceed our bed capacity. If the rate increases by only 10% then it'll take 6 and half months....

More concerning of course, is that we only have about 600 ventilators in Tennessee, and as of a month or so ago, it was being reported that about half of hospitalized COVID patients need a ventilator at some point during their hospital stay. In this scenario, if the hospitalization growth rate increases by 10%, then we'll be short on ventilators in about 3 and half months.

All that to say, I have no idea what kind of growth rates we're going to see in reality here- maybe it'll end up averaging .005% or something entirely manageable.  I certainly hope so. 

 

There's a couple hospitalization trends that need to be clarified. ICU capacity is going to drop because we've opened back up surgeries and medical procedures. So those people if its a serious procedure are often going to require ICU space. Secondly, everyone being hospitalized is getting a COVID test. There's been several reports across states that a lot of new COVID hospitalizations are actually people checking in with other ailments then testing positive for COVID. They are getting counted in the totals.

Example:

 

[titanhog]

Just know that my post isn't made to make people believe that Tennessee is in trouble.  It's just to show the current trends.  We don't want to keep trending up every week...for many reasons...but again...this is for TN and there could easily be a "hot spot" somewhere in the state that effects overall numbers.  It's not just for Nashville...so who knows for sure what is driving an increase.  Just something to keep an eye on.  My only concern would be a week after week where we start seeing HUGE spikes...which hasn't happened yet.

[DDIG]

54 minutes ago, titanhog said:

Just know that my post isn't made to make people believe that Tennessee is in trouble.  It's just to show the current trends.  We don't want to keep trending up every week...for many reasons...but again...this is for TN and there could easily be a "hot spot" somewhere in the state that effects overall numbers.  It's not just for Nashville...so who knows for sure what is driving an increase.  Just something to keep an eye on.  My only concern would be a week after week where we start seeing HUGE spikes...which hasn't happened yet.

No arguments with that. Appreciate you pulling the information.

[DDIG]

Only 56 Nashville cases today. So that's good.

[OnePointEast]

We're still staying in Phase 2.

[Nash_12South]

One main reason to get to Phase 3 is the ability of bars to open at 50%. It will help Broadway, obviously, but also help the bars at restaurants. With the social distancing guidelines, most restaurants can't fit in more that 75% anyway. They need bar revenue/seats. The Tennessean has a couple of stories this morning on the trials of restaurants. 

Edited June 11, 2020 by Nash_12South

[DDIG]

22 minutes ago, OnePointEast said:

We're still staying in Phase 2.

Cooper said we are satisfactory everywhere but for the slight uptick in new cases. Hopefully another day or two like today and they'll get comfortable. I tend to think while we've had an uptick it isn't a huge spike, so if hospitality capacity and other metrics are in place let's go soon if we have a few days below 100. Apparently the clusters are coming from Southeast Nashville so we need some proactive work in that area.

Edited June 11, 2020 by DDIG

[BnaBreaker]

I don't know if Nashville has the space on the sidewalks, but in some places like Indianapolis they have allowed restaurants to expand their outdoor seating onto sidewalks, and in some cases, even onto the road, in order for them to offset the capacity losses (and by extension some of the financial losses) they've experienced with the COVID-19 restrictions.  I think it's a rather brilliant idea!

[Nash_12South]

5 minutes ago, BnaBreaker said:

I don't know if Nashville has the space on the sidewalks, but in some places like Indianapolis they have allowed restaurants to expand their outdoor seating onto sidewalks, and in some cases, even onto the road, in order for them to offset the capacity losses (and by extension some of the financial losses) they've experienced with the COVID-19 restrictions.  I think it's a rather brilliant idea!

I ate at a place in 12South last night that had added hanging plastic barriers between all their covered outdoor seating to have the ability to seat every table. The 25% unseated was inside although the technicality of 75% is a bit based on square footage and not actual seats.

[markhollin]

CoolSprings Galleria owner has "substantial doubt" they will be in business a year from now.

The leadership of CBL & Associates Properties Inc. (NYSE: CBL) fired that warning shot in new financial filings that disclose that tenants across its 108 properties paid just 27% of the rent due in April — and CBL doesn't expect much more than that for the month of May. As a result, CBL skipped an $11.8 million interest payment that was due June 1.

More behind the NBJ paywall here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/06/11/shopping-mall-owner-cbl-coolsprings-galleria-covid.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

[Nash_12South]

7 minutes ago, markhollin said:

CoolSprings Galleria owner has "substantial doubt" they will be in business a year from now.

The leadership of CBL & Associates Properties Inc. (NYSE: CBL) fired that warning shot in new financial filings that disclose that tenants across its 108 properties paid just 27% of the rent due in April — and CBL doesn't expect much more than that for the month of May. As a result, CBL skipped an $11.8 million interest payment that was due June 1.

More behind the NBJ paywall here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/06/11/shopping-mall-owner-cbl-coolsprings-galleria-covid.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

I wonder how much the using phrases like "substantial doubt" is related to scaring creditors into working with them on interest payments.

[Armacing]

1 hour ago, Nash_12South said:

I wonder how much the using phrases like "substantial doubt" is related to scaring creditors into working with them on interest payments.

The whole "substantial doubt" thing is an audit term that their accountants are obliged to use when they prepare the company's financial statements.  Normally their is the underlying assumption that the business being audited is a "going concern", meaning it is a business with normal inflows and outflows of cash.  When that is no longer the case, the auditors have to call that out for the financial statement reader so they can take that into consideration when deciding whether or not to invest in a company or issue credit to a company.

As far as scaring their creditors, I think the "27% of normal rent" statistic is all they need to grab their undivided attention.

[DDIG]

This chart provides really helpful context of where we actually stand as a nation:

 

[titanhog]

1 hour ago, DDIG said:

This chart provides really helpful context of where we actually stand as a nation:

 

It's part of the reason we shouldn't keep every county in a state shutdown...that it should be a county by county thing.  Take my home state of Arkansas.  They are having a major outbreak in NWA (where Wal Mart HQ, Tyson HQ, etc are located)...which are making the state look like they're in trouble.  But...it's really just the 3-4 counties in the Boston Mountains...including Fayetteville, Springdale, Rogers and Bentonville.  The hospitals are becoming full and they're having to use other hospitals in N. Ark and W. OK.  

They should probably do some things to slow the spread...but the rest of the state should be able to keep opening.  Same should happen for the rest of the nation.  County by county.  Same for TN.

[markhollin]

The Nashville Symphony cancels their entire 2020/21 season due to Covid-19, furloughing 128 full-time employees (79 musicians and 49 administrative staff). It will last until July 31, 2021 (unless the public health situation improves ahead of schedule). This includes all symphony performances and and other concerts/events scheduled for Schermerhorn Symphony Hall.  In March, the nonprofit laid off 200 part-timers who had been working as ushers, security and bartenders, among other things.

More at The Nashville Post here:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/music-business/article/21137161/symphony-cancels-202021-season

[Nash_12South]

20 hours ago, markhollin said:

The Nashville Symphony cancels their entire 2020/21 season due to Covid-19, furloughing 128 full-time employees (79 musicians and 49 administrative staff). It will last until July 31, 2021 (unless the public health situation improves ahead of schedule). This includes all symphony performances and and other concerts/events scheduled for Schermerhorn Symphony Hall.  In March, the nonprofit laid off 200 part-timers who had been working as ushers, security and bartenders, among other things.

More at The Nashville Post here:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/music-business/article/21137161/symphony-cancels-202021-season

This seems a huge overkill. I could see them losing many talented people. I know that there are caveats that may resume earlier, but I’d need to be hunting for another job. 

[donNdonelson2]

45 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

This seems a huge overkill. I could see them losing many talented people. I know that there are caveats that may resume earlier, but I’d need to be hunting for another job. 

Could they WANT to see some of their long time (and higher paid) talent leave? I’m just throwing that out as a possibility. When it comes to budgets, contracts, and musicians unions, who knows what intrigue could be at work.

[titanhog]

33 minutes ago, donNdonelson2 said:

Could they WANT to see some of their long time (and higher paid) talent leave? I’m just throwing that out as a possibility. When it comes to budgets, contracts, and musicians unions, who knows what intrigue could be at work.

I would definitely bet they'll be a very different symphony once they resume (personnel-wise).

[titanhog]

Tennessee State Covid Update

This week:  3,470 new infected...150 new hospitalizations...55 deaths

Last week: 3,435 new infected...183 new hospitalizations...48 deaths

2 weeks ago: 2,691...150...45

3 weeks ago: 2,424...106...25

4 weeks ago: 2.529...155...49

5 weeks ago: 2,550...186...37

6 weeks ago: 3,165...305...36

7 weeks ago: 2,137...97...26

8 weeks ago: 1,727...175...44

Last 4 weeks vs. previous 4 week:

L4: 12,020 infections...589 hospitalizations...173 deaths

P4: 10,381 infections...743 hospitalizations...148 deaths

Hospitalizations came down a bit...which is good.  Glad to not see a huge jump.  Still have to keep a close eye on hot spots...but we're holding steady.

[DDIG]

9 hours ago, titanhog said:

Tennessee State Covid Update

This week:  3,470 new infected...150 new hospitalizations...55 deaths

Last week: 3,435 new infected...183 new hospitalizations...48 deaths

2 weeks ago: 2,691...150...45

3 weeks ago: 2,424...106...25

4 weeks ago: 2.529...155...49

5 weeks ago: 2,550...186...37

6 weeks ago: 3,165...305...36

7 weeks ago: 2,137...97...26

8 weeks ago: 1,727...175...44

Last 4 weeks vs. previous 4 week:

L4: 12,020 infections...589 hospitalizations...173 deaths

P4: 10,381 infections...743 hospitalizations...148 deaths

Hospitalizations came down a bit...which is good.  Glad to not see a huge jump.  Still have to keep a close eye on hot spots...but we're holding steady.

Nashville 67 new infections today. Heard some buzz barring a big spike or two we could get a Phase 3 announcement Monday or Tuesday.

[Nash_12South]

The Tennessean is among several news sources reporting on multiple businesses sited for violating the Phase 2 rules, specifically on Friday. I was sent a picture of Kid Rock’s packed on Friday night, the next morning.  The owner is siting the mayor’s allowing, and endorsing in many folks opinions, the protest rallies, negates the whole drawn out reopening plans. I think we all saw this coming and I have to say I agree with the legal strategy. The mayor had little option but to allow the initial rally but in continuing to allow the several per week rallies he loses the high ground. I can see Phase 3 being announced quickly, with slap on the wrists to the violators, just to make this all go away. Just my opinion. 

Edited June 15, 2020 by Nash_12South

[Nashvillain]

31 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

The Tennessean is among several news sources reporting on multiple businesses sited for violating the Phase 2 rules, specifically on Friday. I was sent a picture of Kid Rock’s packed on Friday night, the next morning.  The owner is siting the mayor’s allowing, and endorsing in many folks opinions, the protest rallies, negates the whole drawn out reopening plans. I think we all saw this coming and I have to say I agree with the legal strategy. The mayor had little option but to allow the initial rally but in continuing to allow the several per week rallies he loses the high ground. I can see Phase 3 being announced quickly, with slap on the wrists to the violators, just to make this all go away. Just my opinion. 

It's possible that the protest marches lead to a spike in infections, but a huge difference between the protesters and ALL the people packing bars on Lower Broadway--and in Midtown apparently--is that the vast majority of the protesters are wearing masks.

And it appears that there is at least circumstantial evidence that masks make a difference:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/world/asia/japan-coronavirus-masks.html