Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

[titanhog]

The nation to watch is South Korea.  I believe S. Korea's numbers can be trusted more than most in Asia.  They took a huge jump over the last 2 weeks...but they've slowed down considerably this week with just over 7000 cases...but only 53 deaths.  The reason to watch them is they are reportedly testing every citizen.

[smeagolsfree]

40 minutes ago, titanhog said:

The nation to watch is South Korea.  I believe S. Korea's numbers can be trusted more than most in Asia.  They took a huge jump over the last 2 weeks...but they've slowed down considerably this week with just over 7000 cases...but only 53 deaths.  The reason to watch them is they are reportedly testing every citizen.

Thats because they know what they are doing there vs here where it is a real crap show.  The administration is saying different things depending on who you listen to, and both sides are playing politics with ours lives in the balance.

They saw the avalanche coming and pretty much didn't do much regardless of what is being said. Draconian measures will have to be taken like is being taken in Italy right now in order to slow this down. People will not like what will have to be done like spots events , conventions, music festivals, etc all being cxl.

The warmer weather may help some, but it may not, and the damage to the world economy is now starting to show and some are already saying the dreaded recession is pretty much already here. 

If this ends up as bad as the Spanish influenza, then that took out 5% of the world population at the time. In todays numbers that would be somewhere around 385 million. The Spanish flu took two years to burn itself out.

They have three choices, let the population crash and then that will crash the hospital care system and the economy, keep the economy running, but then the people continue to get sick and spread the virus, or a balance of all three, keep the economy running,  keep the hospitals running, and care for the sick. One underlying problem is that India is now banning exports of certain Pharmaceutical products, and China is not producing them yet, and that is where 80% of our drugs come from. India does most of the generics.

The big key is how  quickly the Chinese can get back up and running without another outbreak and the rest of the countries get the outbreak under control. Right now the later does not look good.

[Nash_12South]

I’m a pessimist regarding the virus, but I think there is reason to believe that most folks, under 60, and in generally good health will get through this. Italy is going to extremes measures largely because its spreading faster than their healthcare system can handle. That is what our government is failing to do. They are trying to balance not upending the economy with slowing down its spread. 
There is a scary chance that many folks over 60, with health issues, will get very sick and could die because of this approach. Those of you with family 60+ ought to do what you can to slow down their exposure for as long as possible. 
Update - Vanderbilt is canceling classes for the remainder of the week and suspending in person classes going forward, possibly through the end of the semester.....

Edited March 10, 2020 by Nash_12South

[Binbin98]

Hello.

So Vanderbilt just cancelled their classes in person until the end of March due to a student falling ill with the coronavirus there. This mirrors what my university did up here in New York in that all classes will be online until the end of March tentatively. This virus is a big deal for colleges and college students alike, but I do not have my last midterm anymore so I suppose that is a positive. 

[smeagolsfree]

10 hours ago, Nash_12South said:

I’m a pessimist regarding the virus, but I think there is reason to believe that most folks, under 60, and in generally good health will get through this. Italy is going to extremes measures largely because its spreading faster than their healthcare system can handle. That is what our government is failing to do. They are trying to balance not upending the economy with slowing down its spread. 
There is a scary chance that many folks over 60, with health issues, will get very sick and could die because of this approach. Those of you with family 60+ ought to do what you can to slow down their exposure for as long as possible. 
Update - Vanderbilt is canceling classes for the remainder of the week and suspending in person classes going forward, possibly through the end of the semester.....

Not only that there are some of us here that are in our 60's.

[Bos2Nash]

The latest global numbers from John Hopkins Hospital:

• 115,825 cases reported
• 4,028 deaths reported (3.4% of reported cases)
• 64,046 recovered cases (55% recovery so far)

Panic is driving alot of decisions right now. Harvard has also cancelled all in-person classes, Belmont University is alerting teachers that while a decision hasn't been made, it is a possibility. The NYSE hit it's first "circuit breaker" yesterday as a result of the plunge in stocks. It is important to note that the tumble in stocks is also related to the oil battle going on between Russia and Saudi Arabia (Oil prices dropped 34% - largest drop since the Gulf War). Covid-19 is obviously effecting supply chain, the United States is predicted to be the third most impacted economy by the downturn in China's exports. Here is a link from an unedited UN paper about the impacts of China - https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/ditcinf2020d1.pdf. This does not include India or other large importers, but obviously with China's involvement in our economy it should give us a good idea of the impact. Below is an image from the last page of the paper showing sectors impacted by China's export slow down. Spreading the downturn out over the course of the year currently is a 2% percent drop in supply of intermediate goods and the shipping exports out of Shanghai also recovered from it's steep drop at the beginning of February and even though it is in decline still, it is much more tempered. 

In other news related to this....

Bill Gates Foundation is partnering with the University of Washington to develop a home testing kit for the Seattle area. According to the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle has approximately 600 cases. Bill and Melinda Gates have also already donated almost $100 million to research for fighting the sickness.

The idea that this will be as deadly as the Spanish flu is just spreading more panic. We are not in the midst of a World War that is requiring soldiers to travel the world and carry the disease with them. It's been 102 years and quarantine is a very real thing that we know how to implement and treatment illnesses much better. While the current death is higher than the Spanish Flu (3%-5% death rate), experts expect it to drop as more and more people recover. 

Edited March 10, 2020 by Bos2Nash

[markhollin]

How Nashville stocks fared during Monday's massive Wall Street sell-off:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/03/10/how-nashville-stocks-fared-during-wall-streets.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

[Rockatansky]

On 3/9/2020 at 10:15 AM, smeagolsfree said:

One thing that drives me crazy is the fact that people still come to work sick even after they are told to stay home.

I have some sympathy for folks who show up because they are living paycheck to paycheck and don't get paid time off. Speaking of which, PTO should be required from here on out. How is this not a bigger discussion, I don't know.

[grilled_cheese]

39 minutes ago, Rockatansky said:

I have some sympathy for folks who show up because they are living paycheck to paycheck and don't get paid time off. Speaking of which, PTO should be required from here on out. How is this not a bigger discussion, I don't know.

BUT THAT WOULD INFRINGE ON MUH RAHTS AS A SMALL BUSINESS OWNER

Visitors Corp: More than 50,000 Nashville hotel rooms cancelled amid coronavirus concerns

https://www.wkrn.com/community/health/coronavirus/visitors-corp-more-than-50000-nashville-hotel-rooms-cancelled-amid-coronavirus-concerns/

[satalac]

Well if anyone's been wanting to have a nice "woo woo" free time downtown, now's your chance!

[dReAmWiELdEr]

 
One thing that drives me crazy is the fact that people still come to work sick even after they are told to stay home. Selfish little wieners that have no regard for anyone but themselves and spread it to anyone and everyone they come in contact with. Its not just this, its the flu and anything else. Employers are at some point going to have to rethink their sick leave policy in this country. There is no telling how many people she spread it to while she was at work.
Then you have people like the guy in Japan that goes bar hopping after he was diagnosed with SARS COV 2. Some are just STUPID, and some may do it for revenge on society.. who knows!
I will bet we have some joker that will do the same thing here. Honey I got the Coronavirus, I'm gonna go out and get a beer with my buddies before I die.
 

My spouse's company just mandated that everyone work from home at least through the end of the month and even forbade anyone to come into the office. (I live in Metro Atlanta and I, myself, do not currently work due to disability.)

Sent from my GM1915 using Tapatalk

There are reports that the purported "recovery" in China is being orchestrated as a public relations tool to serve the Chinese government's purposes.  Whistleblowers have claimed that lights are being left on and machines left running to create the appearance that economic activity has returned to normal, when in reality it has not.  I don't know why anyone would believe the statistics coming out of China. 
This is the same government that employs mass re-education camps to forcibly convert millions of people away from their traditional religion.  Falsifying infection rates is a fairly mild infraction compared to China's typical misdeeds.  China has a vested economic interest in making it look like everything is great and returning to normal there.  I recommend you take reports of a quick recovery there with a grain of salt.

There are videos leaked that indeed confirm this; but to what scale, I do not know.

Sent from my GM1915 using Tapatalk

The latest global numbers from John Hopkins Hospital:

• 115,825 cases reported
• 4,028 deaths reported (3.4% of reported cases)
• 64,046 recovered cases (55% recovery so far)

Panic is driving alot of decisions right now. Harvard has also cancelled all in-person classes, Belmont University is alerting teachers that while a decision hasn't been made, it is a possibility. The NYSE hit it's first "circuit breaker" yesterday as a result of the plunge in stocks. It is important to note that the tumble in stocks is also related to the oil battle going on between Russia and Saudi Arabia (Oil prices dropped 34% - largest drop since the Gulf War). Covid-19 is obviously effecting supply chain, the United States is predicted to be the third most impacted economy by the downturn in China's exports. Here is a link from an unedited UN paper about the impacts of China - https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/ditcinf2020d1.pdf. This does not include India or other large importers, but obviously with China's involvement in our economy it should give us a good idea of the impact. Below is an image from the last page of the paper showing sectors impacted by China's export slow down. Spreading the downturn out over the course of the year currently is a 2% percent drop in supply of intermediate goods and the shipping exports out of Shanghai also recovered from it's steep drop at the beginning of February and even though it is in decline still, it is much more tempered. 

In other news related to this....
Bill Gates Foundation is partnering with the University of Washington to develop a home testing kit for the Seattle area. According to the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle has approximately 600 cases. Bill and Melinda Gates have also already donated almost $100 million to research for fighting the sickness.
The idea that this will be as deadly as the Spanish flu is just spreading more panic. We are not in the midst of a World War that is requiring soldiers to travel the world and carry the disease with them. It's been 102 years and quarantine is a very real thing that we know how to implement and treatment illnesses much better. While the current death is higher than the Spanish Flu (3%-5% death rate), experts expect it to drop as more and more people recover. 

You nailed it... panic is the enemy as much as anything.

Sent from my GM1915 using Tapatalk

[Mr_Bond]

57 minutes ago, satalac said:

Well if anyone's been wanting to have a nice "woo woo" free time downtown, now's your chance!

Actually, this could be true across the country.  Time to travel!

[bigeasy]

1 hour ago, dReAmWiELdEr said:

My spouse's company just mandated that everyone work from home at least through the end of the month and even forbade anyone to come into the office. (I live in Metro Atlanta and I, myself, do not currently work due to disability.)

Sent from my GM1915 using Tapatalk
 

The company I work for is really close to doing the same thing. IT has been stress testing the system to see what would happen if the whole company were to work remotely. They also announced this morning that the office is going to have some deep cleaning over the next two nights and that we have to leave by 5pm. (I wish they did this 5 days a week haha)

[Nash_12South]

I was on a conference call with someone newly returned from California (to Virginia) who realized he was coming down with the flu. He went to the local hospital yesterday and recounted 5 hours of testing from folks in hazmat suits. He has the regular flu but was pretty impressed/intimidated at the process.

Edited March 11, 2020 by Nash_12South

[DDIG]

29 minutes ago, Nash_12South said:

I was on a conference call with someone newly returned from California (to Virginia) who realized he was coming down with the flu. He went to the local hospital yesterday and recounted 5 hours of testing from folks in hazmat suits. He has the regular flu but was pretty impressed/intimidated at the process.

Oh you just have the Flu, it has only killed 30k in the U.S. this year - no need for this stupid Hazmat suit 

Edited March 11, 2020 by DDIG

[smeagolsfree]

I would count the Ritz as dead at this point in time, and the airport hotel probably on indefinite hold. The Greystar project may delay construction on the hotel portion of that hotel on Broadway. The two hotels in the Gulch that have not started construction yet, a the Yazoo site and the one on 9th probably on hold for a long time. This will be the start of a few projects that will be put on hold or just die on the vine. I may be wrong about a couple of them, but stand by for some more projects that may get axed in these uncertain times.

 

"If it's a construction deal, [the hotel] doesn't open for two years — we'll be past this," Patterson said. "If this was … a lender trying to make a loan on an existing hotel? Would not happen. That would stop."

 

Coronavirus COVID-19 concerns could halt this type of real estate deal: Hotels - Nashville Business Journal

 

Coronavirus COVID-19 concerns could halt this type of real estate deal: ... Recent comments from a real estate moneyman underscore how Nashville's otherwise booming hotel industry is start...

 

[MLBrumby]

What was the Ritz proposal? 

[titanhog]

Just saw where March Madness has been shut down for fans.  So...all teams will be playing before basically empty arenas...which will be very weird to watch.  The SEC tournament that starts in Nashville today will still have fans...as of now.

[Binbin98]

3 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

I would count the Ritz as dead at this point in time, and the airport hotel probably on indefinite hold. The Greystar project may delay construction on the hotel portion of that hotel on Broadway. The two hotels in the Gulch that have not started construction yet, a the Yazoo site and the one on 9th probably on hold for a long time. This will be the start of a few projects that will be put on hold or just die on the vine. I may be wrong about a couple of them, but stand by for some more projects that may get axed in these uncertain times.

 

"If it's a construction deal, [the hotel] doesn't open for two years — we'll be past this," Patterson said. "If this was … a lender trying to make a loan on an existing hotel? Would not happen. That would stop."

 

Coronavirus COVID-19 concerns could halt this type of real estate deal: Hotels - Nashville Business Journal

 

Coronavirus COVID-19 concerns could halt this type of real estate deal: ... Recent comments from a real estate moneyman underscore how Nashville's otherwise booming hotel industry is start...

 

1. I never knew there was a Ritz proposal but it shows how much Nashville's hotel scene exploded in the last decade

2. A recession happened on Monday meaning these proposals are not dead per se but will be pushed back to happening during the next economic boom cycle, whenever that is. I don't doubt that Ritz-Carlton will give up a Nashville proposal entirely, especially when their newer brand EDITION is being built in the gulch now.

[Nash_12South]

March Madness, men and women, will be played with no fans. SEC tournament to play tonight, with fans, but tbd after that.

VUMC has supposedly sent hundreds of employees, who can work from home, home, starting immediately, for the rest of March.

Edited March 11, 2020 by Nash_12South

[OnePointEast]

Pure carnage on the stock market today. 

[Mr_Bond]

2 hours ago, Binbin98 said:

2. A recession happened on Monday..

As an economist, I'm not sure I understand what you're saying here.  A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.  However, I think you're using the word in another sense, right?

[smeagolsfree]

3 hours ago, Binbin98 said:

1. I never knew there was a Ritz proposal but it shows how much Nashville's hotel scene exploded in the last decade

2. A recession happened on Monday meaning these proposals are not dead per se but will be pushed back to happening during the next economic boom cycle, whenever that is. I don't doubt that Ritz-Carlton will give up a Nashville proposal entirely, especially when their newer brand EDITION is being built in the gulch now.

The article says banks have pretty much stopped lending for hotels unless theyare under way. Some of these that are eary along may be put on hold. Yes there is a Ritz proposal of sorts that has been floating around. I know it was mentioned on here and I know more. Than I can say.

We are officially in a bear market now.

[titanhog]

Wild how you can be sailing along with everything fine...and then BOOM...Pandemic stops everything.

[downtownresident]

Stock market crash. Tourism ground to a halt almost overnight. 
 

All travel(freight is NOT included per a clarification from Trump after the press conference) from Europe banned for 30 days(except the UK). 
 

NBA season suspended after a player tests positive. NHL deciding its fate tonight  

 

SEC tournament, and NCAA tournament to hold games without fans. 
 

College campuses moving all classes online, and local schools closing. 
 

Businesses moving workers remote. 
 

What a wild two weeks. 

Edited March 12, 2020 by downtownresident