Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

[deletethisaccount]

[OnePointEast]

Come Monday, depending if crap hits the fan during the weekend, I expect another big downturn in the stock market.

[bigeasy]

1 hour ago, Mr_Bond said:

The benefits of being (mostly) vegetarian and vegan, and baking my own bread, are suddenly coming into focus.  No need for bread, milk, or cheese.  The pantry is already full of beans, pasta and sauces.  Not sure what I'll do when the TP runs out.

My wife is (mostly) vegetarian as well. So there is always tons of beans, chickpea pasta, sauces, and then nonrefrigerated almond milk. We had zero issues getting our produce yesterday.

Are there any financial advisors on the site? With all of the volatility in the market I wasn't sure what your thoughts are in investing? It seems like a great time to buy, but I wasn't sure if there were expectations of it going down even more in the coming weeks. I plan on investing a bit more than my normal 401K. I just wasn't sure if I should do it ASAP or wait a bit more. This could be a profitable time for some long term investments.

[satalac]

1 hour ago, Mr_Bond said:

Not sure what I'll do when the TP runs out.

 

Lettuce.

[grilled_cheese]

25 minutes ago, satalac said:

Lettuce.

And once the fresh produce runs out I'm planning on moving to coffee filters.

[PruneTracy]

Really the question is, do I have enough socks to last until the leaves get on the trees?

 

[Mr_Bond]

55 minutes ago, bigeasy said:

Are there any financial advisors on the site? With all of the volatility in the market I wasn't sure what your thoughts are in investing? It seems like a great time to buy, but I wasn't sure if there were expectations of it going down even more in the coming weeks. I plan on investing a bit more than my normal 401K. I just wasn't sure if I should do it ASAP or wait a bit more. This could be a profitable time for some long term investments.

That would be me and I think there is at least one other on UP.  I'm a financial planner with an RIA firm in Nashville.  We are fee-only fiduciaries (only paid by our clients).  I'm the investment specialist on the team (CFA, MBA, accounting degree).

First, the basics.  You need an emergency fund of 3-6 months of cash flow needs, perhaps more if you're a single-income household and/or work in an industry with frequent job changes.  If you're nearing retirement (10 years or less), you need to be building an allocation to bonds that will fund your cash flow needs for the first ten years of retirement (our firm uses the matching approach to building portfolios).  Be certain that your life and disability coverage is adequate.

Now to your question.  Here's some perspective.  Today's value on the S&P 500 is about 24.2% below its peak on 2/19/20 and takes us back to the value in October 2017, 2.5 years ago.  That would suggest that we could still have a way to go to the downside if the market is so inclined.  Many studies tell us that we can't time the market.  The point of buying stocks when the market is down is that we have the wherewithal to ride the market back to the plus side and make some money.  Don't get hung up on timing the bottom but think about it in terms of steps.  Perhaps you want to take two or three steps into the market while it's down.  If so, perhaps it's time to take a step and be ready to take step two quickly if needed.

[satalac]

3 minutes ago, PruneTracy said:

Really the question is, do I have enough socks to last until the leaves get on the trees?

 

You laugh, but they come in handy in a pinch. Found that out the hard way in Hawaii...

[Armacing]

2 hours ago, nativenashville said:

Plot twist:  This comic is from the year 1933.

[Mr_Bond]

1 hour ago, Armacing said:

Plot twist:  This comic is from the year 1933.

But it still applies.

[smeagolsfree]

Well I will have to say the response from the administration this afternoon is a lot better than I expected, but it is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

They are going to have to make sure the supply chain into the grocery  stores are sustained. Notice Trump did not let his HHS secretary say a peep. He will be out the door before long is my guess

One big problem is that a lot of folks will go to church this weekend and be in fairly close quarters, so I expect a boom in the number next week.

 

I have heard comment like God will protect us, but if there is a tsunami coming and the church is on the beech are you going to go to church???? Dont get me wrong it is a choice if you want to go to church or go out to drink but common sense should prevail, but there are a lot of folks in the country and around the world who sorely lack that when they were giving  that part of brain power out.

[Mr_Bond]

The market ran up 3.5% while the President and others were speaking from 2:30 to 3:15 this afternoon.  I agree, @smeagolsfree, that this afternoon's presentation was pretty solid.  I think the market's end-of-day rally says two things.  First, the administration's response today was good and shows that more will be coming.  Second, those in the market who are willing to make big moves decided to go into the weekend holding more stocks rather than less.  That speaks volumes.

The number of cases will go up, but it won't be solely because some churches decided to meet.  It will be because people who don't know they're sick go out and spread it around: in grocery stores and drugstores, in bars and restaurants, at concerts and shows, at birthday parties, and other places.  It will be because those who caught the virus last week or the week before finally get tested.

It looks like most of the country is united in stopping the spread over the next few weeks.  I encourage all of us to join the rest of our neighbors in this effort now.  Now is the time to blunt the curve.

[smeagolsfree]

I agree Mel, its not only churches, but other things as well. When the government limits groups to 300 or 1000 that is just stupid. You need to ban ALL large gatherings of people and cancel schools right away. You will always have some idiot that will intentionally spread this and that is when the fines and jail times will come into play after they recover, if they recover.

The more pain now the less pain in the long run.

[Tennessine]

Our office in suburban Atlanta is closing its doors until further notice. Since I'm a student, I'll have to finish my co-op assignment from home. I'm fortunate I can continue to work online. Otherwise, I'll be out of a job.

 

Guess I'm going to pack up and head back to Nashville, but I'm worried about infecting my parents in case I have it. 

[Armacing]

2 hours ago, Mr_Bond said:

But it still applies.

Yes, I mean it's not really from 1933, it's from recently, but I was just pointing out that this has been going on for like 100 years.  So I agree with you that the problem of unlimited printing of fiat currency is a major problem today, and has been for a very long time.  Everyone feels the effects of inflation, but they have been trained from an early age to accept it as part of a modern economy because the government says it's "good".   Only a very small cross-section of the population with in-depth knowledge about economics and history recognizes it for the outrageous theft of savings that it is.

[MLBrumby]

2 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

Well I will have to say the response from the administration this afternoon is a lot better than I expected, but it is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

They are going to have to make sure the supply chain into the grocery  stores are sustained. Notice Trump did not let his HHS secretary say a peep. He will be out the door before long is my guess

One big problem is that a lot of folks will go to church this weekend and be in fairly close quarters, so I expect a boom in the number next week.

 

I have heard comment like God will protect us, but if there is a tsunami coming and the church is on the beech are you going to go to church???? Dont get me wrong it is a choice if you want to go to church or go out to drink but common sense should prevail, but there are a lot of folks in the country and around the world who sorely lack that when they were giving  that part of brain power out.

LOL... The church where my family goes will not be having services on 3/15 and 3/22. Flatten that curve, baaaybeee!

[Nash_12South]

Nissan sent all office employees to work from home until further Notice.

[nashmoney]

Same with Bridgestone. They also have restricted all domestic and international travel and any group meetings/trainings until further notice. 

[JoeyX]

Ahh, the hand wringing against church goers. How about hand wringing against filthy dietary habits of places that keep transferring these viruses to humans. 

Edited March 14, 2020 by JoeyX

[15895]

1 hour ago, nashmoney said:

Same with Bridgestone. They also have restricted all domestic and international travel and any group meetings/trainings until further notice. 

Pretty much all the employers are mandating employees TW in DC area.

I was particularly thinking about Nashville today as I remember during the MLS fiasco reading that the mayor may not be the best for growth - then a major tornado - now this. Are things particularly bad in Nashville or is it pretty much on par with the rest of the country? 

[downtownresident]

18 minutes ago, AirNostrumMAD said:

Pretty much all the employers are mandating employees TW in DC area.

I was particularly thinking about Nashville today as I remember during the MLS fiasco reading that the mayor may not be the best for growth - then a major tornado - now this. Are things particularly bad in Nashville or is it pretty much on par with the rest of the country? 

Delta has said that they are cancelling more flights than they did after 9/11, so I’d say that it’s bad everywhere. The tornado definitely makes things a bit harder here, but as far as tourism cancellations are concerned, Nashville isn’t being hit any harder that other markets. 

[dxfret]

This is a global issue. Things are not normal everywhere and uncertainty makes things worse.  
Nashville is well positioned with a diverse economy and robust development continuing.  This crisis will pass and others will follow. 

[grilled_cheese]

5 hours ago, JoeyX said:

Ahh, the hand wringing against church goers. How about hand wringing against filthy dietary habits of places that keep transferring these viruses to humans. 

 

[Tennessine]

6 hours ago, grilled_cheese said:

 

Thank you, brother. I feel healed, now.

Test kits, Schmest kits. We're gonna be fine.

[Nash_12South]

Publix will start closing the stores at 8:00pm to give them time to restock and clean. Actually a good idea. It could calm things a bit if people walk in and see the shelves more stocked and aisles not clogged with stockers barely keeping up. 
I, obsessively, went to check out the Melrose Kroger’s this morning and found the shelves actually a little better than yesterday morning. Still no eggs. More staff restocking. There were considerably more shoppers for 6:30am, on a Saturday than I’d expect. 

Edited March 14, 2020 by Nash_12South