Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

[smeagolsfree]

I will disagree with you on this one Bob.

I don't know if some of these STR  owners can last 2 months as they are  heavily reliant on that income to make those payments. We will go into recession with this. Look for 2nd quarter growth to be negative. Best case would be flat line growth.  The president said today this could go on until August. Well there is almost your 6 months.

Too many people are going to be left upside down. We are no where near the end of this right now. Most people don't have an emergency fund, so many will be forced into bankruptcy if the feds do not some how get involved. I will say if Trump bails the cruise industry out and leaves the working man out, he will definitely not get reelected.

Cooper will have no choice but to raise taxes as the city is already going to take a huge hit in tax collection due to less spending for at least the next three month's. Three of the busiest months too.

The State will take a big hit too, as sales tax is the major source of income there.

[Nash_12South]

Tenant in 222 Building tests positive for the virus. The building is closed as of this morning, I imagine catching the few tenants, still working there, off guard.  They need to make an appointment to pick up their stuff.....

Edited March 17, 2020 by Nash_12South

[markhollin]

Metro has canceled or postponed a batch of meetings that represent important checkpoints on the course that property owners and developers take to obtain approval for their plans. Metro's Planning Commission punted all items from its scheduled March 12 meeting to its next session, currently set for March 26. The Historic Zoning Commission canceled its March 18 meeting; the Board of Zoning Appeals canceled its March 19 meeting. The Stormwater Management Committee nixed its April 2 meeting.

Real estate attorneys such as Shawn Henry, partner at Tune Entrekin & White P.C., now are nervously looking at their calendars. Henry said a number of landowners and developers now face a two-month delay — and potentially longer. And that's not the only thing throwing off the delicate timing of countless would-be projects, given the stock market's plunge and global economic ramifications.

"A lot of folks were tracking to have their zoning approved in June. They're now looking at August, unless some extraordinary legislative and administrative measures are taken," Henry said.

"My biggest concern is the delay it will have to some of these projects, and whether some of them will be viable at all," Henry said. "There's anxiety from the development community and, of course, land sellers. All too often, people focus on, 'Well it's just another developer trying to get something approved.' But it's buyers and sellers. These sellers are under contract."

Typically, after the Planning Commission's non-binding vote, Metro Planning Department staff have about two weeks to draft legislation to enact the proposed zoning change and file it with Metro Council. The council holds three hearings, usually over a six-week span. The middle of those three hearings includes time for public comment.

However, Metro Council does not hold those public hearings in the month of June, to preserve more time to focus on finalizing Metro's budget for the new fiscal year that starts July 1.

"They've said, 'We're going to try not to hurt anybody's schedule with this delay.' But that would mean they'd have to vote to suspend some council rules," Henry said.

More at NBJ here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/03/16/deal-dash-postponed-meetings-spark-anxiety-but.html?ana=e_me_set3&j=90500279&t=Morning&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTlRObVpXWm1ZV05tTWpBeCIsInQiOiJzQTBmYnRPNzlCVHYzbU94NnRSWHhwQzlTeTdlK1lHQklFVCtKanhZSXVJeDhlU1lzekV5MXBtOGN0ZUd1Q0VVXC9QNnBCOUtXMTUreVhKSkZhVXZlSSttd3RtNHgyZ3Zmc25JSktPZVJCV2xra3NlakZieVRwXC9kSTdlMUdsYldUIn0%3D

[grilled_cheese]

Evictions have been suspended

https://www.wsmv.com/news/davidson_county/davidson-sheriff-to-halt-evictions-serving-civil-papers/article_0b0fa46e-6856-11ea-998c-ff6abdd9d9a2.html

 

 

[Mr_Bond]

On 3/16/2020 at 7:24 AM, smeagolsfree said:

COVID effect on the housing market. May be too early to tell, but there will be a lot of people that will lose their jobs and be underwater in their homes very quickly.

 

I don't have time to pull up the graphs from FRED (I'm way behind in replying to clients, updating portfolios, and doing trades), but will give some quick comments.

Until a year or so ago, the housing market was still recovering from the bubble bursting.  There's not another bubble to burst there.  Of course, some people will lose jobs and may have to sell their house.  The size of this wave is unknown but it won't look like 2005-2018.

Overall, U.S. consumers have not taken on a lot of debt since 2008 in nominal terms.  So, in real terms (adjusted for inflation), households have less debt than they did 10-12 years ago.  This leaves some cushion to absorb smaller shocks and this adds some resiliency to the economy.

[BnaBreaker]

3 hours ago, markhollin said:

Metro has canceled or postponed a batch of meetings that represent important checkpoints on the course that property owners and developers take to obtain approval for their plans. Metro's Planning Commission punted all items from its scheduled March 12 meeting to its next session, currently set for March 26. The Historic Zoning Commission canceled its March 18 meeting; the Board of Zoning Appeals canceled its March 19 meeting. The Stormwater Management Committee nixed its April 2 meeting.

Real estate attorneys such as Shawn Henry, partner at Tune Entrekin & White P.C., now are nervously looking at their calendars. Henry said a number of landowners and developers now face a two-month delay — and potentially longer. And that's not the only thing throwing off the delicate timing of countless would-be projects, given the stock market's plunge and global economic ramifications.

"A lot of folks were tracking to have their zoning approved in June. They're now looking at August, unless some extraordinary legislative and administrative measures are taken," Henry said.

"My biggest concern is the delay it will have to some of these projects, and whether some of them will be viable at all," Henry said. "There's anxiety from the development community and, of course, land sellers. All too often, people focus on, 'Well it's just another developer trying to get something approved.' But it's buyers and sellers. These sellers are under contract."

Typically, after the Planning Commission's non-binding vote, Metro Planning Department staff have about two weeks to draft legislation to enact the proposed zoning change and file it with Metro Council. The council holds three hearings, usually over a six-week span. The middle of those three hearings includes time for public comment.

However, Metro Council does not hold those public hearings in the month of June, to preserve more time to focus on finalizing Metro's budget for the new fiscal year that starts July 1.

"They've said, 'We're going to try not to hurt anybody's schedule with this delay.' But that would mean they'd have to vote to suspend some council rules," Henry said.

More at NBJ here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/03/16/deal-dash-postponed-meetings-spark-anxiety-but.html?ana=e_me_set3&j=90500279&t=Morning&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTlRObVpXWm1ZV05tTWpBeCIsInQiOiJzQTBmYnRPNzlCVHYzbU94NnRSWHhwQzlTeTdlK1lHQklFVCtKanhZSXVJeDhlU1lzekV5MXBtOGN0ZUd1Q0VVXC9QNnBCOUtXMTUreVhKSkZhVXZlSSttd3RtNHgyZ3Zmc25JSktPZVJCV2xra3NlakZieVRwXC9kSTdlMUdsYldUIn0%3D

I'm sure there are a multitude of factors I'm not considering, and that this is way easier said than done, but isn't this something that could just be done through e-conferencing?

[markhollin]

Head of MCC says coronavirus' impact on Nashville business is worse that 9/11's:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/03/17/music-city-center-chief-coronavirus-business.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

Over the past 3 weeks, Ryman Hospitality has lost $3 billion in market cap:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/03/17/difficult-dark-times-colin-reed-on-the-continued.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

[smeagolsfree]

6 hours ago, BnaBreaker said:

I'm sure there are a multitude of factors I'm not considering, and that this is way easier said than done, but isn't this something that could just be done through e-conferencing?

Problem with that may be they are required by law, I think to allow public comment.

[Nash_12South]

Just walked up and down 12South. Nearly a ghost town. What restaurants are open are nearly empty. I understand all the logic of closing or reducing everything but it’s sad when you know the people affected. Again, not saying we don’t need to do this.

Edited March 17, 2020 by Nash_12South

[BnaBreaker]

1 hour ago, smeagolsfree said:

Problem with that may be they are required by law, I think to allow public comment.

Very good point... I bet you are right.

[downtownresident]

Downtown is eerily dead. Only construction workers and what few people actually live here left. Even the homeless have moved on from where I’m at for the most part. Crazy to think it was packed full just two weeks ago. 

[Tennessine]

1 hour ago, downtownresident said:

Downtown is eerily dead. Only construction workers and what few people actually live here left. Even the homeless have moved on from where I’m at for the most part. Crazy to think it was packed full just two weeks ago. 

That's great news. People need to stay put.

[smeagolsfree]

12 hours ago, downtownresident said:

Downtown is eerily dead. Only construction workers and what few people actually live here left. Even the homeless have moved on from where I’m at for the most part. Crazy to think it was packed full just two weeks ago. 

Sort of like an episode of "The Walking Dead" Now all we can do is wait for this long a$$ storm to pass. This is going to be like a two or three month hurricane. Some of us are better off than others and my heart goes out to those that can't afford this or were not prepared for this.

The good news is there are no zombies roaming around trying to eat our brains. Lets just all try to stay connected on here as much as possible. At some point I will get out and walk when the weather gets a little better for some exercise, but for now, its weights, exercise bike,  & the tread mill in the basement.

Maybe we can arrange at some point a outdoor get together where we can do social distancing in a spread out area. We can wait till the weather warms up a little.

[deletethisaccount]

[thenorthchannel]

Ryman Hospitality Partners (formerly Gaylord) has suspended their dividend and been providing weekly updates to shareholders.   Currently, stock is down 80% from end of February all time highs.   Their response after the 2010 flood was really ahead of the rest of town and they are a company I am paying a lot of attention to, just to gauge the local impact. 

From latest shareholder update ' https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ryman-hospitality-properties-inc-provides-180010460.html

“For the two weeks ended March 14, 2020, our hospitality business has experienced total attrition and cancellations of approximately 268,000 net room nights (which is inclusive of the net room nights disclosed in our March 8, 2020 release), representing approximately $132 million of revenue. This represents approximately seven annual occupancy points, or approximately 16%, of the contracted group room nights for the March through December time period on the books as of January 1, 2020. Approximately 55% of this impact is for March 2020, approximately 34% is for April 2020 and approximately 11% is for May-July 2020. The total estimated amount of attrition and cancellation fees currently owed to the Company for the attrited/cancelled groups is approximately $63 million.  In addition, we have seen decreased levels of booking pace in our hospitality segment’s leisure business for the remainder of March.

[VSRJ]

13 hours ago, nativenashville said:

 

That image could be a trigger for people with photosensitive epilepsy or who are prone to migraine headaches.

[grilled_cheese]

Bonnaroo postponed to September

https://www.wsmv.com/news/bonnaroo-rescheduled-for-september-amid-coronavirus-concerns/article_2ec543ae-6933-11ea-ae49-ef5b4ca71b49.html

[dmillsphoto]

38 minutes ago, VSRJ said:

That image could be a trigger for people with photosensitive epilepsy or who are prone to migraine headaches.

Hidden for that reason. No offense @nativenashville but it did actually make me slightly dizzy while it was on.

[CenterHill]

15 minutes ago, grilled_cheese said:

Bonnaroo postponed to September

https://www.wsmv.com/news/bonnaroo-rescheduled-for-september-amid-coronavirus-concerns/article_2ec543ae-6933-11ea-ae49-ef5b4ca71b49.html

At least not cancelled.     Could be better camping weather.     

[LA_TN]

Marathon postponed

https://amp.tennessean.com/amp/2865778001

"With the health and safety of our community being an utmost priority, and based on the direction and recommendations of public health agencies and local authorities in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 St. Jude Rock ‘n’ Roll Nashville Marathon & 1/2 Marathon, originally scheduled for April 25-26, 2020 has been postponed."

No new date is set yet

Edited March 18, 2020 by LA_TN
Link added

[PruneTracy]

1 hour ago, nativenashville said:

I can tell a boomer made this meme because they gave themselves hair.

[markhollin]

[smeagolsfree]

Just plan on CMA fest to be the next casualty.

[Nash_12South]

CMA Fest could be hard to move. You'd think all the stars and would be stars have fairly full schedules (absent the pandemic). Nissan stadium and the other venues availability could be an issue too.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Nash_12South

[Bos2Nash]

So a couple things....

• City of Columbus, Ohio has shut down their permitting office and will be reviewing documents at home.  Would not shock me if Nashville does this next. As mentioned by Ron regarding legally obligated public meetings, they will most likley get pushed back and will be held at a later point most likely.
• Boston, MA has issued a moratorium on ALL construction, halting all projects within the city limits (https://archpaper.com/2020/03/boston-imposes-citywide-moratorium-on-construction-coronavirus/). Don't be shocked if this happens here.
• My office building has implemented intense deep cleaning and are making changes to parking plans for employees to have less exposure time. Certain doors are also being locked so that only keyfab employees can access the building.

The economy is going to take a slide here folks as we know. Please remember to shop as local as possible so that many of the small businesses can remain in tact. Granted delivery is the safest option, but many businesses will not survive this downturn without local shoppers.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Bos2Nash